Transitional period poses serious threats
Inder Malhotra
British soldiers (left) and US Marines lower the Union Jack and the NATO flag during a handover ceremony at Lashkar Gah in Afghanistan's Helmand province on October 26. AFP
ON Sunday at a ceremony - not announced in advance for fear of an attack - Britain and the United States handed over to the Afghan government and its security forces two major and adjacent military bases in Helmand province of the country which has seen the worst of fighting during the 13 years of war and where the rebellious Taliban are still in a strong position. Between them the US base named Leatherneck and the British one called Camp Bastion formed the international coalition's regional headquarters and housed 40,000 military personnel and civilian contractors all of whom were flown back home by Monday evening. For Britain it was the end of its combat role in Afghanistan. The British Defence Secretary used the occasion to announce that no British troops would be sent back to Afghanistan ever. For America, the combat role will end in two months. But, under the Afghanistan-US Defence Security Agreement (DSA), around 10,000 American troops will remain in the war-ravaged country up to the end of 2016.
The departing international coalition seems encouraged because it sees the formation of a government of national unity in Afghanistan - after a hotly disputed election -- as a good augury. That would surely so if it lasts. Many are doubtful if it can because the formation of the united government is less voluntary and more America-brokered. President Ashraf Ghani lived in America and worked for the World Bank. His rival, Abdullah Abdullah, has been made the CEO for which there is no provision in the Afghan constitution. Many of his strong supporters, belonging to ethnicities other than Pushtoon, are opposed to this arrangement. Should it break down, Afghanistan would return to armed conflict among warlords. But let us hope that this danger would be averted. But there will still be several other challenges.
For one thing, the Afghan National Army - which, along with the police - numbers 3,50,000, is American-trained, like the Iraqi Army that has virtually collapsed. Could the ANA meet the same fate, especially because it does not have air cover, and is unlikely to get it? Its other equipment is also inadequate. The international community has therefore to do something to ensure the safety of post-US Afghanistan. The Afghan economy is in bad shape. According to the World Bank, the rate of growth of the Afghan GDP plummeted from 14. 4 per cent in 2012 to 3.1 per cent in 2013 and is likely to be 3.5 per cent this year. No wonder President Ghani has rushed to a three-day visit to China where he will meet his opposite number, Xi Jinping, signalling the pivotal role he expects Beijing to play not only in economic reconstruction of Afghanistan but also in a strategic foreign policy aimed at building peace in a region torn by war and conflict for three decades. China does have a stake in peace and stability in Afghanistan where it owns one of the biggest copper mines in the world and is waiting to start operating it. Also Beijing knows that the rebels in its Xinjiang province get much assistance from the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. To this extent India’s and China’s interest is the same. But we have to be watchful about what China actually does there, as we have difficulties with Chinese activities in other neighbouring countries.
Time was when the US used to criticise this country for not helping it to overcome its biggest strategic problem, Afghanistan, by settling all its numerous disputes with Pakistan and letting America leave after settling the Afghan imbroglio. Later, however, Washington welcomed India's “larger footprint” in Afghanistan. For it saw how popular India and Indians were there because this country was concentrating on Afghanistan’s reconstruction and development, building its parliament, university and other institutions and providing electricity to even its remote villages. Altogether, India has invested two billion dollars in Afghanistan. It has also trained Afghan military officers in Delhi, not Kabul.
As for Pakistan the wide world knew that all through his dictatorial rule Gen Pervez Musharraf was “double-crossing” the US and yet he and his successors, operating through the notorious Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), got away with this perfidy. All through these years the then Afghan President, Hamid Karzai, went on protesting publicly not only against Pakistan unleashing on his country its officially sponsored and nurtured terrorists but also for having become a haven for terrorists of all kinds. Neither the US nor Pakistan cared. The bitter truth is from the very beginning Pakistan has treated Afghanistan as its backyard that gave it “strategic depth” against India. After the first Afghan jihad when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan to preserve a government friendly to it, it was Pakistan that organised the Taliban. It has also played host to the Taliban’s icon, Maulana Umar.
Today Pakistan’s main objective is to ensure that after America's full exit Afghanistan is ruled by the Taliban friendly to Islamabad. It might be making sweet noises but its actions are totally opposite. In fact, its determination to keep India out of Afghanistan and virtually rule Afghanistan is much the stronger than before. Indeed, its enmity with India has increased greatly, as its aggressive behaviour along the Line of Control and the international border which the state of Jammu and Kashmir demonstrates.
The United States knows and witnesses all this. But so great is President Barack Obama's need to cut his losses and get out of Afghanistan - the American people are fed up with America's longest war that has cost it heavily in both blood and treasure - that he is prepared to pay any price to Pakistan for the latter's help to enable the US to wash its hands of Afghanistan. This is the source of the greatest trouble and challenge we are going to face fairly soon. I hope our policymakers have noticed that in the list of Pakistani terrorist outfits mentioned in the Modi-Obama joint declaration there is no mention of Taliban.
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