Editorial: The Future of Net Assessment

Oct. 20, 2014 

Andy Marshall plans to retire as the director of the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment on Jan. 2, after four decades as one of the most influential men in US national security.

The survival of the office he created and who will replace him will be critical for DoD. At a time of dramatic change and increasing strategic challenges facing the US military, the practice of net assessment — determining emerging military threats and opportunities through interdisciplinary analysis — is vital. Any organization serious about strategy needs a strong net assessment capacity.

Marshall has apolitically advised defense secretaries for more than 40 years, sifting lessons from military operations and highlighting looming challenges — like the implications of a rising China — decades before they became widely recognized as such.

Marshall’s great strength lies in his unique ability to think across domains, to ask the right questions and drive analysis of unconventional-yet-plausible scenarios. Devoid of ego, he avoided the limelight and his reputation for wisdom and selecting and mentoring top talent earned him the adoration of his military fellows who called him Yoda.

The good news is that one of the men who will determine the future of Marshall’s office is Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work, among the talented pool mentored by Marshall. Work’s strategist is Tom Ehrhard, another of the Marshall alumni, as is DoD intel chief Mike Vickers.

Whomever succeeds Marshall must share his intellect and ability to think across military, technological, economic, societal and demographic disciplines. He or she must be nonpartisan, objective and discreet in advising top leaders while growing the ranks of strategic thinkers who will — from within government and without — keep America and its allies well ahead of threats, enemies and competitors.