October 15, 2014
15 Predictions For The Future Of The Internet Compartmentalized, Gated, Armored, Camouflaged, Deceitful, Dangerous, Wonderful. Resented — A ‘Dr. No’ In Cyber Space — And An Off The Net Movement
Bridget Shirvell, had an interesting and thought-provoking article back in March of this year on the PBS NewsHour website on what may lay ahead for the future of the Internet. We are all aware that the overwhelming majority of us are no longer network enabled; but, more like network dependent. And, as Ms. Shirvell notes, “the Internet has radically changed everyday life –[ particularly] in American society. It has created [opened] new ways to connect family and friends; disrupted the way we do business; and, rewired just about everything in between. But, the Internet and the worldwide web are still relatively young. The public web is only 25yrs. old; and, like most twenty-somethings…it still has a lot of growing up to do.”
“While the debate continues on net neutrality,” Ms. Shirvell writes, “privacy, and architecture of the Internet, there is some agreement about the future of the Internet over the next ten years. As part of a series of reports marking the 25th anniversary of the Web, Pew Research Center’s Internet Project, in partnership with Elon University’s Imagining The Internet Project, asked nearly 1,500 Internet experts open-ended questions the future of the web.” What they found probably won’t surprise you in most respects; but, in others, it could be breath-taking.
The majority believes the Internet will become like electricity during the next decade, less visible; but, more important…and, embedded in everyday life. While a majority of the experts surveyed agreed that the Internet is likely to continue to grow/expand, there was disagreement on the implications — especially with respect to its good and bad aspects, Ms. Shrivell wrote. Pew has been conducting this survey since 2004 [ten years] and interestingly, this was the first time that there were as many negatives…as there were positives. “They worry about interpersonal ethics, surveillance, terror, and crime; and, the inevitable backlash as governments and industry try to adjust,” said Elon University Professor Janna Anderson, a primary author of the report.
So, what is the future of the Internet? Here are 15 predictions from the report released back in March, 2014, Digital Life at 2025:
— Information sharing over the Internet will be so effortlessly interwoven into daily life that it will become invisible, flowing like electricity, often through machine intermediaries;
— The speed of the internet will enhance global connectivity, fostering more positive relationships among societies;
— The Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and big data will make people more aware of the their world; and, their own behavior;
— Augmented reality and wearable devices will be implemented to monitor and give quick feedback on daily life, especially in regard to personal health;
— Political awareness and action will be facilitated and more peaceful change; and more public uprisings like the Arab Spring will emerge (see Hong Kong now);
— The spread of the “Ubernet” will diminish the meaning of borders, and new “nations” of those with shared interests may emerge online; and exist beyond the capacity of current nation-states to control;
— The Internet will become “the Internets,” as access, systems, and principles are renegotiated;
— An Internet-enabled revolution in education will spread more opportunities, with less money spent on buildings and teachers;
— Dangerous divides between the haves and have-nots may expand, resulting in resentment and possible violence;
— Abuses, and abusers will ‘evolve and scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing; their laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity, pornography, dirty-tricks, crime, and the offenders will have new capacity to make life miserable for others;
— Pressured by these changes, governments and corporations will try to assert power — and at times succeed — and at times succeed — as they invoke security and cultural norms;
— People will continue — sometimes grudgingly, to make tradeoffs favoring convenience, and perceived immediate gains over privacy; and, privacy will be something only the upscale enjoy;
— Humans and their current organizations may not respond quickly enough to challenges presented by complex networks;
— Most people are not yet noticing the profound changes today’s communications networks are already bringing about; these networks will be even more disruptive in the future;
— Foresight and accurate predictions can make a difference. The best way to predict the future….is invent it.”
U.S. Spy Programs May Break The Internet If Not Reformed, Google Leader Says
There are the above predictions; and, then there are the concerns expressed by Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt, among others about too much government intrusion and surveillance on the Internet. Kim Zetter, on the October, 2014 website, Wired.com, begins her article by quoting Microsoft General Counsel Brad Smith at a Silicon Valley panel discussion this weel on NSA surveillance: “you own your data, and the government needs to start respecting that. Until the U.S. recognizes and restores the fundamental right of ownership of data, he continued, the U.S. cannot hope to rebuild trust lost through NSA’s widespread surveillance programs.”
Ms. Zetter writes that “this stance flies in the face of what we expect from Internet companies these days, many of them who tend to act as if they own the content we create.” “If you’re a consumer, or a company, you own your email, your text messages, your photos, and all the content you create,” Mr. Smith said. “Even when you put your content in our data centers, or on devices that we make, you still own it; and, you are entitled to legal protection under our Constitution, and our laws. We will not rebuild trust until our government recognizes that fundamental principle.”
Ms. Zetter writes that Sen. Wyden “opened the panel by noting that until the Snowden revelations [leaks], he never once heard a U.S. official express concern about the potential impact of the government’s mass surveillance programs on the digital economy.” “When the actions of a foreign government threaten red-white-and-blue jobs, Washington gets up in arms,” he said, “But, even today, almost no one in Washington is talking about how overly broad surveillance is hurting the U.S. economy.”
“The panelists all agreed,” Ms. Zetter says, :”that the surveillance has had detrimental affects on the industry, not only in terms of erosion of trust from consumers, but also in terms of the potential economic, social, and education impacts that would occur if countries follow through on their threats to keep their data local. Some twenty countries have already proposed, or stated intentions to propose domestic laws requiring local data to remain local — as a result of the [Snowden] spying revelations. If this occurs,” Google’s Eric Schmidt warned, “the simplest outcome is we’re going to end up breaking the Internet.”
“Governments,” Mr. Schmidt continued, “will eventually just say, we want our own Internet…and, we don’t want other people on it.” “The cost will be huge in terms of shared knowledge, discoveries, and science. It will also be expensive, since the cost of running data centers in every country may be too much for some firms to handle. We’re screwing around with those kind of concepts…without understanding that this is a national security industry,” Mr. Schmidt said.
Some of My Predictions And Concerns; Digital Space Will Continue To Compartmentalize, Become Even More Gated, Armored, Camouflaged, Deceitful, Dangerous, Wonderful. Resented — A ‘Dr. No’ In Cyber Space — And An Off The Net Movement
I understand where Mr. Schmidt and others are coming from with respect to the intrusiveness of the digital surveillance that took place in the aftermath of 9/11 and NSA’s efforts. Perhaps in our intense desires to discover and prevent another 9/11, led to an over-zealous pursuit by NSA of the meta-data phone call collection program. But, one should remember, the 9/11 Commission faulted the Intelligence Community for a “lack of imagination,” and the failure to connect-the-dots. It is cheap and easy to throw spears at NSA in the aftermath of the Edward Snowden leaks. But, how you see it — depends on where you sit. NSA was a key entity in the global war on terror; and, to a large degree — still is. I do not believe NSA’s intentions were bad. They did not set out intentionally to “take over the Internet,” as Edward Snowden and others have charged. They were hammered by the 9/11 Commission, Congress and others for failing to collect the “dots’ in the first place — much less connect them.
Edward Snowden’s revelations have forced those of us who have devoted our lives to serving in the Intelligence Community to confront an inconvenient truth — that in our dedicated pursuit to keep America safe — we perhaps went too far in intruding into civil liberties and privacy. I think Mr. Schmidt has a point; but, count me out when it comes to trying to assail the integrity of the men and women of the NSA who have devoted their lives in service to this country.
I am reminded of a candidate Obama who assailed POTUS’s Bush’s drone war and targeted killing program; and, his clarion call to close Guantanamo. Six years later, the Obama drone war is in full bloom; and Guantanamo remains open. Again, how you see it depends on where you sit. When you are no longer in the ‘nickel seats; and, instead are in charge of ensuring the safety and well-being of those in the nickel seats. Count me out when impuning the motives and intent of those like Gen. Alexander — who were in the arena and, faced with stopping al Qaeda, and the other dark angles of our nature from doing us harm.
I do think that the civil libertarians and those concerned with privacy and ownership of one’s own data, is extremely important; and, an issue that needs much more nourishment and sunlight shinned on the entire argument — ensuring online privacy and ownership of data — versus the need to ferret out…and, hopefully prevent, acts of terror here in the homeland. It is a difficult balance and one I suspect will continue to frustrate us for the foreseeable future. We must resist an all seeing, intrusive governmental digital data collection campaign; but, we also must find a reasonable approach that does not comprise our well-being and safety.
Denial And Deception, Stealth Malware, Stealth Clouds, Infected Clouds, Armored Clouds, “Gated,” Online Communities, A Dr. No In Cyber Space, Cyber Militias, A Dedicated Off-Net Movement
Outside of this gnarly issue, I was struck by what these experts did not foresee. Balkanization of the Internet, “gated”/online communities, stealth clouds, stealth malware, armored clouds, denial, deceit, camouflage, propaganda, the growth of the Dark Web, the emergence of a ‘Dr. No,’ in cyber space; and, an off-the-net completely militia movement may all be in the worldwide webs future. The emergence of 3-D printing, and virtual reality will lead to breath-taking advances in across virtually every major domain in our lives: health care and treatment of disease, fighting wars, leisure and transportation, finance, and so on. But, one also has to assume that the Dark Web will also evolve in ways we don’t anticipate and can’t imagine at this time. Will we see the first Internet serial killer — who can stalk his victims from the confines of his home or an Internet café? Will a ‘Dr. No’ emerge in cyber space — threatening global economies and selling his super malware to the highest bidder? Will cyber militias — form and act on their own — without the support of the host nation; and, what do we do about it? Like the anti-tax, survivalist militia-type mentality spawn an Off-The-Net movement, dedicated to having no trace of their existence anywhere in cyber space? The cyber world is also likely to be spikey — and not all ‘animals’ on the digital farm will be equal. Lots to consider and think about. V/R, RCP
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