Scot free?

The Statesman

16 Sep 2014

SALMAN HAIDAR

After some 300 years of existence, the United Kingdom is trembling at the edge of what could be its dissolution. In the next few days the Scots will vote in a referendum to decide whether they continue in union with England or whether they cast off and fashion a future for themselves as an independent sovereign country. The move to go their own way has been in the air for some time, and though it started as a rather fringe sentiment, reflecting historic Scottish grumbling about being tied to a larger and stronger entity, in the past few years the issue has become more politically significant and more strongly contested. Regional sentiments have strengthened in Scotland and, to a lesser degree, in other parts of the British Isles, and have compelled a number of constitutional changes that have led to the devolution of more power and authority to regional administrations. The extent of devolution, however, has not fully met the wishes of the Scots, and there has been a steady buildup of sentiment in Scotland in favour of complete separation. 

What had been a somewhat desultory political campaign was greatly energized by the decision that there should be a referendum on the subject, and as the date approaches, there is real uncertainty about the outcome. It is not just the irreconcilable fringe but much the greater part of the population that has been drawn into the debate, with over 4 million having signed up to express their view and make their choice.

An observer in India of these proceedings may well be bemused by the passions driving the referendum. In India's colonial experience, there was not much to distinguish one part of the UK from the other: they were a single entity joined together by their Act of Union, and they were conjoint in the colonization of India, to which they brought the same skills and attitudes, the English perhaps more intent on ruling while the Scots sent engineers and doctors to construct the Raj. The British Indian army was where their parallel legacy was most visible, the English with their punctilio, the Scots with their bagpipes and tartan. There may have been small differences here and there, but no notable divergences. Scotland was part and parcel of the imperial enterprise that coloured a good part of the globe red in acknowledgement of British ascendancy, and while that is over and done with, there are still some tangible spinoffs from their past to benefit and gratify the British Isles and its inhabitants. But all this seems to have been obscured by the campaign to create a little, separate Scotland, entirely distinct from the country of which it is a part today.

What is happening in Scotland has its parallels elsewhere too, especially in Europe, where localized nationalisms are finding new room to flourish and express themselves. Paradoxically, this is taking place at a time when there is also a strong counter-flow against unbridled national sentiment in international affairs, and nowhere is this more to be seen than in the European Union (EU), which embodies supranational and collective decision-making that transcends localized or regionalized demands. Indeed, many decisions that were once the domain of national parliaments are now taken in Brussels at EU headquarters, which sometimes provokes a nationalistic backlash, as is to be seen quite frequently in England where commitment to the EU is notably uncertain and is under frequent challenge. In Scotland, however, the EU evokes much warmer sentiments and is regarded as a buttress rather than a threat to its sovereign rights. For those who are pushing for separation, membership of the EU offers Scotland an assured and stable future after it breaks its union with England, on the assumption that it would continue to be a member of the EU after the split, without any serious disruption. The reality of the EU and what it provides to member-states is an important element in the discussion of the pros and cons of Scottish separation from England.

The Scottish economy is a developed one and is closely linked with that of England, with the links in the financial sector being especially strong and important to Scotland's future. Disruption of these links could have serious consequences and result in losses of revenue, leading inevitably to significant job losses, which even the most ardent proponents of separation do not wish to see. Hence separation may not be an uncomplicated process and if there is bad blood between the two, there could be enhanced costs for Scotland. There was a 'velvet divorce' when Czechoslovakia split into it component units, Czech and Slovak, and that could be a model of sorts, but what happened there was a parting of ways that both sides wanted, not something forced on the other by one party alone. 

The Scottish referendum and its wider impact in the UK has become a strongly contested issue and in the last few days the leaders of the main British parliamentary parties, all three of them, have campaigned jointly to try to drive home the message that separation would be a costly and damaging outcome for Scotland and for the UK as a whole. The leaders were perhaps slow to react initially, but they have now made their position unequivocally clear, for the race seems tight in its closing stages and there is much at stake. The late flurry also shows the anxiety within the UK political establishment, for though only the Scots will get to vote, the others will not be immune from the consequences of their decision if it leads to the dissolution of the UK.

Indirectly, what happens in Scotland could have considerable international consequences. There are several separatist movements within countries of the EU that will be watching the outcome closely ~ many have sent busloads of their adherents to Scotland to see for themselves and perhaps draw lessons from the Scottish experience. The combination of separatist sentiment and institutional continuities within the EU makes for a recipe with obvious attractions for some groups that may be seeking independence without risk of serious social and political disturbance. Apart from Europe, there are several other parts of the world where separatist movements have been active for some time and they will no doubt keep a close eye on the Scottish referendum.

What is soon to happen in Scotland cannot be regarded as a passing matter in a small and distant place. As has become increasingly evident, the referendum has real potential to disrupt and to raise a whole new range of international challenges. Its outcome will be watched with great attention.

The writer is India's former Foreign Secretary