Presidential Elections : Afghanistan

By Harjit Hansi

September 27, 2014  

Introduction

The Presidential elections were held on 05 April 2014, heralding for the first time in the history of Afghanistan democratic transition of power. Since no candidate secured more than 50% votes required to avoid a run-off, a second round of voting was held on 14 June 14 between the two leading candidates, i.e. Dr Abdullah Abdullah and Mr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai. The incumbent President Hamid Karzai was not eligible to participate due to a two-term limit. Around seven million of the 12 million eligible voters braved the threat of Taliban to cast their ballots.

Second Round Result

The preliminary results of the second round of election were declared on 07 July 14 by Afghan Independent Election Commission. Mr Ahmadzai secured approximately 56 per cent votes while Mr Abdullah got 44 per cent. The summarised result is as given below:-

Candidate	Nominating Party	First Round		Second Round
		Votes	%	Votes	%
Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai	Independent	2,084,547	31.56	4,485,888	56.44
Abdullah Abdullah	National Coalition	2,972,141	45.00	3,461,639	43.56
Total Votes				7,947,527

Dr Abdullah refused to accept the result accusing President Hamid Karzai and Mr Ahmadzai of electoral fraud. In view of the standoff between the two Presidential candidates, revalidation of all ballots where fraudulent voting had been alleged was ordered under the watch of UN representatives / international community.

The rigging of votes and the blame game played by the two presidential candidates was leading to major political crisis in Afghanistan. To avert the upheaval and ensure peaceful transition of power, US Secretary of State John Kerry brokered an agreement between the two presidential candidates and proposed formulation of a National Unity Government by power sharing. The candidate who won the election would be appointed as the President, while his opponent would become the Chief Executive, a post equivalent to Prime Minister. The proposal was tentatively agreed by both the candidates.

Nomination of President

On 21 Sep 14, ending a year long turmoil, the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan declared the electoral results and Mr Ashraf Ghani was named President-elect. The details of the election result were withheld to be declared later, apparently as part of the political agreement between Mr Ghani and Dr Abdullah Abdullah.

Analysis

Security Situation. Looking at the prevailing situation in Afghanistan, the new Government faces huge security, challenges. The terrorist activities continue to afflict Afghanistan as NATO forces have not been completely successful in weakening the Taliban.

The ANSF though being a young, evolving force, has not allowed Taliban/fundamentalist elements to exert their writ in Afghanistan. However, post drawdown of NATO forces, for ANSF to effectively operate and manage its internal security environment, there is a mandated requirement to enhance its present strength from 250,000 personnel to approximately 372,500. The increment in manpower and capability development is likely to cost close to $5-6 billion to the exchequer, which remains a critical issue.

Mr Ghani Ahmadzai and Dr Abdullah have both agreed to sign a bilateral security agreement with the United States for its troops to operate beyond 2014. The US plans to leave about 9,800 troops which will be responsible for advising and assisting Afghanistan security forces and conducting counterterrorism operations, which augers well for Afghanistan’s security environment.

Economic Situation. Afghanistan's economy has been suffering due to decades of conflict and unrest. However, since last few years it has improved significantly, largely due to infusion of foreign aid and investments. The international community remains committed towards restoring Afghanistan’s economic health by providing it necessary financial assistance and avenues for employment.

Political Situation. On 21Sep 14, Mr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and Dr Abdullah Abdullah signed a broad power-sharing pact to ensure peaceful and democratic transition of power. Under the agreement, the president will be responsible for setting national strategic policies, while the chief executive as proposed by Dr Abdullah will be in charge of their implementation and daily running of the government.

The long term sustenance of this fragile union between Mr Ghani, an ethnic Pashtun and Dr Abdullah, a Tajik, borders on uncertainty. The correct political picture would only emerge in the near future. In spite of the delicate political situation, the people of Afghanistan are hopeful of the new administration for ensuring peace and economic development in the region and holding the country together.

Broad Policy Options for India

India and Afghanistan share a long history of cultural, social and economic ties and even today India is a favoured destination for many from Afghanistan. As the ISAF draws down, Afghanistan looks upon India as a major source of support for peaceful transition of power and stability in the region.

India as a regional power has to play a pivotal role to help Afghanistan strengthen its political, civil and military establishments, develop infrastructure and boost its ailing economy. Additionally, it has to assist Afghanistan to prevent external forces from subverting its progress towards stability and turning it into a safe haven for Taliban/other terrorist organisations. The Taliban rule of five years in Afghanistan (1996-2001) had proved to be a security nightmare for India.

Post-drawdown of NATO forces and shift in responsibility of national security on ANSF, there is need for India to further empower Afghan forces and make them capable of effectively and independently managing their internal security situation. Due assistance in terms of finance, military hardware, training of personnel, development of indigenous training and logistics capabilities, military infrastructure, strategic lines of communication, medical facilities etc to be provided by India. The deployment of Indian forces on ground to undertake operations in Afghanistan is however not recommended.

Conclusion

The prolonged stalemate of the presidential election and drawdown of NATO forces has adversely affected Afghanistan. The government institutions have become dysfunctional and the on-going developmental work, economy and security situation remain critical. The US brokered power sharing agreement, to resolve the perilous political situation has left many Afghans wary and confused about its efficacy and longevity. India meanwhile must continue to keep Afghanistan on top of its strategic and security agenda and ensure peace and stability in the region, while adequately preserving its interests. 

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