Narendra Modi, Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit in Brazil
China’s mammoth Silk Route plan would dynamise half the world. Will India accept the invitation?
Old Silk Route
Distance: Over 4,000 miles, stretching from China to the Mediterranean Sea
The route linked ancient lands of China, India, Persia, Arabia, Bactria and Rome
Combining extant, ancient trade routes, its golden age was from 2nd century BC till the 13th century
Got its name from trade in Chinese silk, though cotton and spices from India and precious stones and other items from Persia, Arabia and Europe were also sold
New Silk Route
Nearly 20 countries—China, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Czech Republic, Germany, Netherlands, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Kenya—over three continents—are part of proposed project. The number may go up.
Silk Strategy
China’s proposed Silk Route would uplink connectivity within China to the region and beyond and also give a boost to Chinese industry and investment in different parts of the world
Build and develop ports and naval bases to ensure the important sea lanes carrying oil, gas and other minerals as well as Chinese goods from the mainland remain unhindered and without trouble
By developing infrastructure in different countries, present the soft power of China and raise stakes of others to minimise confrontation with Beijing
Lastly, it would allow China to develop a parallel trading network—a huge overland and maritime arc encircling the whole of Asia and running into Europe—that would challenge the ones by a US-led West
Shrouded in myths and legends, the ancient ‘Silk Route’ had for centuries been the main conduit for trade and cultural interaction between East and West, connecting old civilisations, encouraging merchants, scholars, pilgrims and nomads to travel to newer realms. Now, over 800 years after its decline, thanks mainly to a Chinese initiative, global attention is recast on the famed route. Countries from Malaysia and India, Kazakhstan to Germany, Kenya to Italy and Vietnam to Netherlands are busy debating whether the proposed project gives more muscle to China’s global power or helps in making it play a more responsible international role. Touted exclusively as a commercial venture and an enabler for connectivity, the Chinese proposal is now being studied by strategists, policy-makers and diplomats in various world capitals.
“New opportunities and a new future to China and every country along the road that is seeking to develop,” declares Beijing’s sales-pitch to countries, hoping they would join the initiative. The new Chinese ‘Silk Route’ project proposes to run through both land and sea, connecting China with countries in three continents—Asia, Africa and Europe. (see infographic). In addition, China offers to spend billions of dollars in the countries along the route (on land and the marine corridor) on connectivity and infrastructure projects, involving construction of ports, docks and ship-building yards. To boost trade, the Chinese are also proposing the use of local currencies between countries along the route.
Partly, the proposed network is also a Chinese attempt to ensure that key land and sea supply lines carrying oil, gas and other minerals to China as well as finished Chinese goods remain smooth. There is apprehension that some of the infrastructure that China proposes to build on the sea route could also be turned into naval bases by Beijing. In addition, it also allows China to develop a parallel trading network challenging the ones by the US-led West.
Though the Chinese offer to join the project was made to several countries, Beijing considers India to be an essential partner. The two countries have a long history of commercial, cultural and religious links and if India becomes a willing partner then the neighbours—dubbed by China-baiters as ‘rivals’—can indeed turn the 21st century into a truly Asian one.
“India is hesitant about the Chinese offer because it sees it purely from the strategic, not economic, perspective.”C. Raja Mohan, Observer Research Foundation
“Due to India’s critical geographical location, its participation will ensure the success of the Silk Route initiative, especially for the maritime part of it,” says Li Li, a deputy director at the Beijing-based China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR).
Though the Chinese initiative had begun under former president Hu Jintao, it has gained in salience under the current incumbent, Xi Jinping, who has been campaigning for this ‘pet project’ of his around the world.
Twice this year, China sought a response from India—during the ‘special representatives’ talks in New Delhi in February and in June when vice president Hamid Ansari visited Beijing. India has been ambivalent so far. But the issue has triggered renewed discussion among South Block mandarins in view of President Xi’s impending visit to India.
“Though we are not averse to the Chinese proposal, we must not rush into it since many of the details are yet to be fleshed out by Beijing,” says a senior MEA official.
It undoubtedly involves striking a fine diplomatic balance. PM Narendra Modi’s recent comment during his Japan visit—on “the 18th century expansionist attitude”—was seen by China-baiters as something directed towards Beijing. Yet, officials point out that the complex relationship between India and China is not limited to their differences, but includes areas in which both have common positions. China, with its impressive foreign exchange reserve, is also a country to which India looks for investment.
Moreover, experts say that China’s Silk Route proposal is not the only one of its sort. In recent years, world players including the US, Turkey and Russia, have tried float their own projects along this route. But most of them have focused on linking their respective capitals and countries to Central Asia. The US plan aimed to link Central Asia with South Asia in an attempt to provide economic and political stability to Afghanistan.
According to the US State Department, ‘the New Silk Road’ initiative was envisioned in 2011 as “a means for Afghanistan to integrate further into the region by resuming trading routes and reconstructing significant infrastructure links broken by decades of conflict”. Part of its plan was to link energy rich Central Asia—a vast repository of oil, gas and hydropower—to fast developing economies of South Asia—all of them hungry for inexpensive and reliable energy—through the ancient trade route.
But nothing much came of the US initiative. Though stability and development in Afghanistan was always part of the plan, much of it aimed to isolate and increase pressure on Iran for its controversial nuclear programme. Now that Washington and Tehran are inching towards a peaceful resolution of the nuclear issue, US interest in its central Asian trade route might return.
However, it is the Chinese proposal on reviving the Silk Route that has generated debates and discussions around the world. This is mainly because of the scale and scope of the Chinese plan. As mentioned earlier, not only does it span three continents through land and sea and involve many nations, for operating at an optimum level, it also calls for investments that runs into trillions of dollars. Investment and development at that level can transform half the world. The global response has much to do with the timing of the project—many countries in Asia and elsewhere are wary of a rising China, especially under a strong leader like Xi Jinping. The concerns have sharpened in view of recent developments, where China finds itself involved in claims and counter-claims with its neighbours in East and Southeast Asia over exclusive rights on important waterways and islands.
“Due to its location, India’s participation will ensure the success of the Silk Route plan, especially the maritime route.”Li Li, Deputy Director, CICIR
“In my understanding, the objectives of Silk Route initiative are more economic than political,” says Li Li. She points out that the initiative will help Chinese companies and investments ‘go global’ and alleviate the over-capacity of some of its sectors, like steel, aluminium, cement, solar panels and ship-building. It will also help sustain China’s economic growth.
She added that politically speaking, “It will help construct China’s image as a peaceful power”. Li argues that China believes economic interdependence may reduce the chance of confrontation. “Many Chinese also see it as a good way for China to take more international responsibilities, because China, through this project, is making contributions to others’ development.”
There are sceptics who point out that despite China’s promise to invest heavily in countries that join its Silk Route project, India should be cautious of its end result. However, much of the concern from a section of policy-planners comes from the maritime silk route project. The fear is that the development of Chinese ports in countries in the Indian Ocean and around India could lead to a situation where Beijing can fulfil its strategy of encircling India—the much-publicised “string of pearls” bugaboo.
“As Beijing becomes more involved in building infrastructure in the Indian Ocean, it will play a larger part in the security and governance of the ior, which could pose a challenge to India’s stature as a ‘security provider’ in the region and also adversely affecting New Delhi’s strategic purchase in its primary area of interest,” writes Abhijit Singh of the Delhi-based idsa.
But there are other Indian scholars and commentators who argue that while India should be cautious, it should also take advantage of the Chinese offer as well as other ones to develop its own infrastructure and connectivity.
“India is hesitant about the Chinese offer because it sees it purely from the strategic perspective,” says C. Raja Mohan of the Observer Research Foundation. But he argues that India should develop its internal connectivity to make full use of trans-border connectivity—such as the one being offered by the Chinese.
For the time being, China seems to understand India’s apprehension, though there is hope in Beijing that under PM Modi a positive response may come from New Delhi to the offer to join the Silk Route project. At the moment, China draws satisfaction from the fact that both countries are cooperating with Bangladesh and Myanmar to develop and establish regional connectivity through the bcim economic cooperation initiative.
“Since it is a long-term vision and will be made step by step, I think India can take time to decide. In other words, India can participate in the project when it feels comfortable. Of course, the earlier India participates, the best it is,” says Li Li. Hopefully, South Block policy-planners are listening carefully to what she has to say.
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