September 10, 2014
Islamist militants have gained knowledge, equipment, strength in numbers
Terrorists possess high-tech hardware, recruiting foreign fighters at alarming rate
This image posted on a militant website on Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2014, which is consistent with AP reporting, shows a convoy of vehicles and fighters from the al-Qaida linked Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) fighters in Iraq’s ... more >
Intelligence officials say the Islamic State group that marched relentlessly across swaths of Iraq this year has grown from a ragtag band of fighters into a formidable battlefield-tested military force with significant access to cash, high-tech hardware seized from its enemies and a stronghold in a volatile and sensitive part of the world.
A senior Pentagon official says the group possesses the ability to shoot down small planes, launch mortar attacks and mount ground assaults using tanks, armored personnel carriers and mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles.
Perhaps just as important as what the group has acquired is its technical know-how.
“The main fact is they are very smart and they probably read every manual that the U.S. has put out on air doctrine and special operations doctrine, so they know what’s coming,” said Theodore Karasik, a security and political affairs analyst at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.
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National security analysts and Pentagon officials agree that what separates the group from other Muslim extremists operating around the world is that they are well-organized and well-financed. The group poses a particular danger because of its growing membership and ability to recruit a breadth and depth of foreign fighters at an alarming rate.
According to a senior Iraqi intelligence official, more than 27,600 Islamic State fighters are believed to be operating in Iraq, about 2,600 of whom are foreigners. Most analysts, however, estimate the number of Islamic State fighters in Iraq and Syria to be about 20,000.
“I think one of the strengths is that they have a substantial number of foreign fighters from an even greater number of countries than al Qaeda ever had,” said Dan Green, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Although the group has been successful at seizing parts of Iraq and Syria, some analysts say it is no unstoppable juggernaut. Lacking the major weaponry of an established military, it wields outsize influence through the fanaticism of a hard core of fighters, capitalizing on divisions among its rivals, and disseminating terrifying videos on social media.
“I think sometimes there’s been a tendency to sort of overestimate the technical sophistication of the Islamic State,” said Charles Lister, visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center.
Mr. Lister, like many other analysts, said much of the power of the Islamic State group — also known by the acronyms ISIS and ISIL — lies in its centralization of command and intense loyalty within the organization.
By contrast, the Iraqi military and police force are estimated at more than 1 million strong. The Syrian army is estimated to have 300,000 soldiers. There are believed to be more than 100,000 Syrian rebels, including the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front and the powerful Islamic Front rebel umbrella group, currently fighting the Islamic State group in Syria. Tens of thousands of Kurdish Peshmerga forces are fighting the group in Iraq.
The Pentagon on Wednesday revealed that a list of hardware destroyed during the course of a monthlong air campaign suggests the militants possess anti-aircraft artillery, mortar positions and improvised explosive devices.
In addition, an Iraqi official who declined to be identified because he is not authorized to brief the media told The Associated Press that the group’s arsenal includes about 35 Iraqi military tanks, about 80 armored police vehicles and hundreds of Humvees.
The group has a few MiG 21s captured when it overran the Syrian army’s air base in Tabqa last month. Analysts say it is extremely unlikely that the fighters could get any of them off the ground at this point.
“It’s a very nice thing for them to be able to show in the video. But for now, we’re unlikely to see an Islamic State air force anytime soon, or even just one working jet,” Mr. Lister said.
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