Europe in forefront

ARUNABHA BAGCHI,The Statesman

19 Sep 2014

At the end of the Second World War, the defeated countries, Germany and Italy, abandoned any hope to be world powers again. The Suez debacle ended any pretensions of England and France to act as superpowers. With looming Soviet threat, America took over the security of Europe and a new World Order emerged. Losing dominant international role and total sovereignty, Europeans instead concentrated on economic growth and social welfare. The result was an idyllic society with 13 (or even 14) months’ salary, vacation pay, seven weeks of paid holidays, one-year paid maternity leave, royal unemployment benefit, low retirement age with full benefits and even 35-hours workweek in some southern countries. The fall of the Soviet Union and the unification of Germany gave the feeling of nirvana to most Europeans. Many even dreamt of peaceful cooperation with Russia, and her inclusion in the new European family of nations. International stability was left to the Americans.

Europeans were suddenly forced to wake up from their slumber by unexpected events that intensified during the last two months. It all started with Ukraine. Last November, the then Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych reneged on an earlier commitment to sign an association treaty with the European Union under intense pressure from Moscow. This led to a chain of events, aided and abetted by the West, that led to the storming of the Ukrainian Parliament by (mostly ultra right-wing) protesters, fleeing of the President, formation of a new government with the installation of a new President and the takeover of Crimea by the Russians to “protect law and order” there. Despite Russia’s historical claim to Crimea, it was a blatant violation of current international agreements. Soon thereafter, Russian-speaking people of Eastern Ukraine demanded autonomy, and even integration with Russia. Baltic countries with a large Russian population got alarmed, as was Poland with a long history of Russian domination. Europe collectively had to react, however reluctantly.

Germany volunteered to act as the interlocutor. Being neighbouring empires, Prussia and Russia had a long history of contacts. The Austro-Hungarian Empire had a large Slavic population. Until recently, Angela Merkel enjoyed good relationship with Vladimir Putin, both being fluent in each other’s mother tongue. Negotiations, however, became increasingly difficult as Ukrainian rebels established their stronghold in the provincial capitals of Donetsk and Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine and started expanding their control to the surrounding areas. Putin pledged not to support the rebels in their efforts at secession, but only their demand for more autonomy. Then the Ukrainian Army counterattacked and was gaining ground amidst the downing of the Malaysian airliner. There was a dramatic turn of events when the rebels suddenly took over the offensive in the last two weeks. Russia has been obviously sending heavy equipment and un-uniformed soldiers clandestinely to tilt the balance in favour of the rebels. Putin is still denying any involvement, but negotiation options for Ms Merkel have all but evaporated.

The real fear is Russia’s possible intention to create a land bridge to the Crimea.

Europe was finally forced to declare sanctions against Russia with some bite. Russia retaliated by banning the import of all agricultural products from the West. The worst sufferers are the Dutch farmers with huge export to Russia. Already prices of some fruit and vegetables here have collapsed in the supermarkets. The farmers are clamouring for subsidy from the EU and unemployment in the agricultural sector is soaring. Although a tentative ceasefire between the Ukrainian government and the rebels have been announced, Europe is planning the next round of tougher sanctions... just in case. In the latest NATO meeting held in early September in Wales, most countries agreed to send more troops to Poland and the Baltic States in contravention of the 1997 Founding Act on Mutual Relations between NATO and Russia. The rapid intervention force is on the alert. Although there is no possibility of European soldiers actually entering Ukraine in support of the government there, the tranquillity in Europe is lost and the future is full of uncertainty.

There is another problem, this one in the Middle East that is also forcing Europe to act. The effort of the West to remove the Syrian dictator, Bashar al-Assad, went awry. Various Sunni groups fighting to oust Assad, using Western weapons and Turkish government support, started bickering among themselves. The result was the triumph of the most fanatic of all factions that now controls one-third of the Syrian territory on the eastern part of the country. With the possession of Western weapons, they now took over vast swathe of Iraq, including the second largest city of Mosul. They are threatening both the oil-rich Iraqi Kurdish capital of Irbil as well as Baghdad. Sunni clans and the disbanded Baath military of Saddam Hussein, aided by the dissatisfaction of Sunni Iraqis with Shia hegemony of the government in Baghdad, support them. This is, of course, the inevitable fight for the ultimate dismemberment of Iraq into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish parts.

This rebel group is calling itself ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) and has declared a Caliphate in the vast territory they now control in Syria and Iraq. Their cruelty knows no bounds. They killed two American hostages by cutting their throats and showing the video images on the Internet. They also killed a large number of Yezedi and Christian minorities in areas they control and are threatening to kill many more if they do not convert to Islam. They have given new inspiration to the international jihadist groups and are fast replacing the moribund Al Qaida as the main force fighting for Islamic fundamentalism.

What has that got to do with Europe? Isn’t it the job of Americans to solve the international mess? The problem is that the murderer of Americans shown on the Internet spoke with English accent, which meant that he is a British citizen fighting for ISIS in the Middle East. Soon intelligence officials in the West identified many European citizens fighting on behalf of ISIS. Until now Western powers always held the government of a country responsible if its citizen was caught in raids on jihadists. This is precisely why IM operatives trained and financed by Pakistan are considered India’s responsibility. India is held accountable for straying away from its citizen. It was crucial for India to prove that the perpetrators of the mayhem in Mumbai were actually Pakistani citizens.

Now European countries are in a fix. They feel exposed and they have to act.

There is another reason for prompt action. These ISIS fighters going from Europe could easily evade security and sneak back into Europe using European passport. These battle-hardy youth pose enormous security challenges here. There is angst and urgency all around. Even the taciturn Germans immediately decided to send a large cache of weapons to the Kurdish fighters in Iraq to stop further ISIS advance there. In the last NATO summit all major European powers pledged to work together with the United States to crush the ISIS. Suddenly the ugly outside world seems to be encroaching on Europe as well.

The writer is former Dean and Emeritus Professor of Applied Mathematics, University of Twente, The Netherlands