U.S. and Europe Are Struggling With Response to a Bold Russia
Peter Baker and Steven Erlanger
New York Times, September 3, 2014
Pieces of a Ukrainian tank littered a road after recent clashes in the strategic town of Ilovaysk, a transportation hub about 28 miles east of Donetsk, Ukraine. CreditMauricio Lima for The New York Times
WASHINGTON — American and European officials are struggling to devise a response as Russia bears down on Ukraine, searching for new measures that will have more impact than the economic sanctions imposed so far, without risking major damage to their own industries or a military escalation that could spiral out of control.
The officials are meeting this week to assemble a new package of sanctions targeting Russia’s banking, energy and defense sectors, but expressed skepticism that the measures would force Moscow to reverse course. President Obama faced rising calls from advisers and from Congress to move beyond economic actions to provide arms and more intelligence to Ukraine’s beleaguered military.
The frustration at the inability to deter Moscow follows a shift on the battlefield, where Russian troops have turned the tide in favor of Ukrainian separatists. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who last week suggested “statehood” for parts of eastern Ukraine, ratcheted up his statements again by telling the president of the European Commission that Russia could “take Kiev in two weeks” if it wanted to.
The challenge by Mr. Putin came as Mr. Obama left Washington for Estonia on Tuesday to reassure Eastern European allies of American support, after which he planned to attend a NATO summit meeting in Wales to discuss Russian aggression. But while NATO plans to form a rapid-response force to protect its eastern borders, it became ever clearer that the United States and Europe do not view Ukraine in the same light as they do alliance members like Estonia.
The NATO meeting “is about drawing a line west of Ukraine,” said Shashank Joshi, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “No one will quite abandon Ukraine, but there is a recognition that there will be no confrontation with Russia on Ukrainian soil. The focus will be on NATO’s boundaries, on reassurance for Poland and the Baltic nations, and drawing a sharp distinction between those in and out of NATO.”
Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress urged Mr. Obama to step up direct assistance to Ukraine’s armed forces, reinforcing private advice he has been getting from some officials inside his own government. The lawmakers and administration officials argue that economic sanctions have not been effective so far and that the Kremlin respects only strength.
“This is a watershed moment,” said Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who just returned from a visit to Kiev. Mr. Menendez proposed sending antitank missiles and radar systems to Ukraine.
“Thousands of Russian troops have crossed into Ukraine,” he told NPR. “They’ve come in with columns of tanks and armored vehicles and surface-to-surface missiles. This is no longer the premise that, oh, separatists are fighting.”
Administration officials are considering such moves. “People are looking at all those options,” said one official, who like others declined to be identified discussing internal deliberations. But Mr. Obama has so far been reluctant to take such steps out of concern that they would worsen the fighting and encourage escalation with a nuclear-armed Russia.
Despite anger at Russian actions, there are few signs that Europe has the stomach for a more confrontational policy if the White House does not. In the end, European leaders whose economies are dependent on Russian energy are reluctant to widen the conflict beyond additional sanctions. Instead, they may seek an outcome that makes some concessions to the Kremlin.
Graphic
HOW MUCH EUROPE DEPENDS ON RUSSIAN ENERGY
Map of European energy imports that come from Russia.
OPEN Graphic
“The center of gravity in Europe will be to recognize that Ukraine lives in the shadow of the bear,” said Nick Witney, former chief executive of the European Defense Agency and a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “We want to stabilize the situation in Ukraine and the Russians want to destabilize it, which is always much easier.”
It may be “deeply unappetizing,” Mr. Witney said, but Europe favors “some form of cease-fire and some degree of negotiation that will give eastern Ukraine more autonomy than Kiev wants and a clear sign that Ukraine won’t join NATO.”
Such a concept has driven a deep divide in Washington in recent days. A group of American and Russian experts and former government officials produced a 24-point plan during a meeting on the Finnish island of Boisto to defuse the confrontation over Ukraine. They proposed a cease-fire enforced by United Nations peacekeepers, a withdrawal of Ukrainian and Russian forces, partial amnesty and a guarantee that Ukraine remains unaligned.
Among those leading the effort were Thomas Graham, a former Russia adviser to President George W. Bush, and Andrew Weiss, a former Russia adviser to President Bill Clinton. Among those on the Russian side were Alexander Dynkin, a former government official in the 1990s, and Alexey Arbatov, a former member of Parliament.
But the plan drew a swift and heated response from other Russia experts in Washington, who complained that it was drawn up without Ukrainian participation and would reward Mr. Putin for aggression. Signing a letter assailing the Boisto plan were David J. Kramer, a former Bush administration official; Strobe Talbott, a deputy secretary of state under Mr. Clinton; Melanne Verveer, a longtime adviser to former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton; and Michael McFaul, Mr. Obama’s former ambassador to Moscow.
Some in Europe are pushing for a tough response. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, who had been energetic in trying to negotiate a de-escalation with Mr. Putin, has proved in the last weeks to be resolute since Russian troops and weapons crossed into Ukraine. While continuing to stress that there is “no military solution,” Ms. Merkel has made clear there will be new sanctions soon if Russia does not pull back.
“Russia is trying to alter existing borders under the threat or even the use of force,” she told Parliament on Monday.
Norbert Röttgen, head of the German Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, said the most recent sanctions “really impressed Putin,” adding, “Now the Europeans must make clear that this was not a one-off show of strength, but is part of a system.”
But some analysts said Europe would not go beyond sanctions. “They have to do something because Putin is behaving badly,” said Charles Grant, director of theCenter for European Reform, “but it’s all they can do.”
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