Balance of power in Asia India should join partners like Vietnam and Japan

 ttp://www.tribuneindia.com/2014/20140911/edit.htm#5

G Parthasarathy

THE 21st century is often described as “Asia’s century”, primarily because of the sustained and rapid economic growth across the continent. While the US can no longer unilaterally decide the course of events in Asia, it will remain a key player in moulding the balance of power within Asia. This balance of power will primarily be determined by the interplay between a rapidly growing, militaristic and jingoistic China, an aging but technologically innovative Japan and India, still uncertain about how to manage this triangular relationship to its best advantage. India and Japan have no territorial or maritime boundary issues which can escalate bilateral tensions. China, however, has adopted policies on land and maritime boundaries, which could lead to escalating tensions with India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia.

Narendra Modi's high-profile visit to Japan and the forthcoming visit of President Xi Jinping to India, together with his visits to Pakistan (since postponed) and Sri Lanka, should be seen in this context of emerging power equations in Asia. It has long been Beijing’s effort to “contain” India within South Asia. Nothing else can explain its policies of equipping Pakistan not merely with tanks, warships and fighter aircraft, but also by promoting the development of Pakistan's nuclear weapons and missile production capabilities. This has been accompanied by China’s untiring efforts to undermine Indian influence in Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.

China took note of Mr. Modi’s comment in Japan: “Everywhere around us, we see an 18th century expansionist mindset; encroaching on another country, intruding on other's waters, invading other countries and capturing territory”. While noting that Mr. Modi had not named any country, China’s official mouthpiece, the “Global Times”, observed: “Japan is located faraway from India. Abe’s harangue on the Indo-Pacific concept makes Indians comfortable. It is South Asia, where New Delhi has to make its presence felt. However, China is a neighbour it cannot move away from. Sino-Indian ties can in no way be counter-balanced by the Japan-India friendship”. Beijing’s message to New Delhi thus was: “You are merely a South Asian power, bordering a strong China. We will move across the Indian Ocean at will. You should, however, not dare use your relationship with Japan to transgress into what you and Japan describe as the Indo-Pacific”. China has no intention of changing its policy of “strategic containment” of India, even if India is useful in promoting its interests in BRICS and G-20.

The visit of Mr. Modi to Japan has yielded substantial progress in industrial collaboration with a target of $35 billion of FDI in the coming five years together with a projected increase of Japanese ODI. Defence industry collaboration and joint exercises between the two navies, both in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, are to be expanded. Japan will be playing a key role in the development of industrial corridors in India. It is removing restrictions on collaboration in space and defence industries. Indo-Japanese collaboration in exploration of rare earths will erode the Chinese monopoly in this sector. We should welcome growing cooperation in industry and infrastructure with China, if it can match the transfer of technology and development of work skills that Japan is ready to provide. There is much we can learn from the speed and efficiency that characterises the construction of infrastructure projects in China.

India's trade deficit with China in 2012 was $39.1 billion. A recent RIS study commissioned by the RBI has noted that such a deficit is "unsustainable". This trade deficit is unsustainable largely because of Chinese non-tariff barriers on key industries like pharmaceuticals, steel and auto components. Moreover, India receives discriminatory treatment in the registration of its products and services like banking, insurance, warehousing and freight forwarding. Some 41 products have been identified, which India exports significantly worldwide, which are prevented from entering the Chinese market by non-tariff barriers. These products include plastics, manmade filaments, electrical and optical machinery, and vehicles. The registration of Indian companies in China is deliberately made difficult. It takes three-five years to secure registration in China — a process that normally takes six months in India for Chinese companies. Some reciprocal measures are called for, including the imposition of higher tariffs on the import of power equipment manufactured in India.

China is no hurry to resolve the border issue. It steadfastly avoids clearly defining where the Line of Actual Control lies in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. Better logistics across the Tibetan Plateau give its armed forces the advantage of far easier access to disputed areas. While contacts between military commanders have increased, face-offs along the LoC continue. Spelling out “guiding principles” for resolving the border issue, India and China agreed in April 2005 that the Sino-Indian boundary “should be along well defined and easily identifiable natural geographical features, to be mutually agreed upon” (Article VI). They also agreed that “The two sides shall safeguard due interests of their settled populations in the border areas” (Article VII). In accordance with this agreement, the border in Arunachal Pradesh should logically be an extension of China’s delineated border with Myanmar. In Ladakh the Karakoram mountains are the most prominent “identifiable natural geographical features” separating India and China.

While India is strengthening its defences along the Sino Indian border, by raising new strike formations, improving communications and deploying frontline SU 30 Squadrons, our negotiators sometimes appear excessively defensive in dealing with their Chinese counterparts. India should join partners like Vietnam and Japan to build a stable balance of power in Asia. Given China’s intimidation of its neighbours on its maritime boundary claims, India should, at least, supply Brahmos anti-ship cruise missiles to friendly countries in the Indo-Pacific region like Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia to secure their maritime frontiers. At the same time, cooperation with China in multilateral forums like G20, the East Asia Summit and BRICS should be expanded and bilateral cooperation in areas like infrastructure, industry, communications and energy pursued vigorously.