An ISIS Spillover Into Jordan Report Released

by wikistrat

August 4, 2014

An attempt by Sunni Islamist militants to infiltrate Jordan would pose a significant challenge to the embattled kingdom. But there are opportunities for the country as well, Wikistrat’s analysts say.

Recent conquests by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) — which now calls itself the “Islamic State” — have put the country of Jordan at risk. The group has proclaimed a caliphate that aspires to consolidate political and religious control over the entire region.

Jordan already finds itself under great pressure, hosting hundreds of thousands of Syrian, Iraqi and Palestinian refugees — some affiliated with the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda and other Salafist groups. Originating from a variety of ethnic backgrounds, the country’s diverse population makes it vulnerable to the influence of radical forces. A serious infiltration by ISIS into Jordan would not only pose a threat to the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom but could also drag Israel and the United States into the conflict.

Earlier this month, Wikistrat conducted a two-day crowdsourced simulation in which its analysts were asked to identify the ways in which the Islamic State could seek to penetrate Jordan.

In the summary report released today, Wikistrat Senior Analyst Jeffrey Itell highlights four paths the Islamist organization could take to infiltrate Jordan. While none of the scenarios seem promising for the Islamic State, Jordan is under significant pressure from unprecedented numbers of refugees, chaotic civil wars on two borders, turbulent politics and an overall weak economy. Any major misstep could provide the Islamic State with an opening that is not readily apparent. At the same time, recent events may present Jordan with opportunities to improve its security as well.

Click here or on the report’s cover image to download the PDF file.

A summary of the report was also published this week in The World Post, The Huffington Post‘s international edition.

For more information about Wikistrat and for access to the full simulation archive, contact info@wikistrat.com.

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