AUG. 7, 2014
The sad truth of the tit-for-tat sanctions that Russia has imposed against the West is that they will hurt Russians far more than they will hurt Westerners.
Acting on President Vladimir Putin’s orders, Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev on Thursday ordered a ban on a wide range of food and agricultural products from the European Union, the United States, Canada, Australia and Norway. No doubt many producers in these countries will feel the loss of $30 billion in food exports to Russia, but the overall effect on their large and diversified economies will be marginal. Russia, by contrast, imports about 40 percent of its food needs in terms of value, and the Russian agriculture minister has acknowledged that the sanctions would cause a spike in inflation.
In effect, Russians will be getting another hefty bill for their president’s arrogant efforts to batter Ukraine, and they will become more estranged from the global economy they need to develop their vast country.
Mr. Putin’s readiness to impose hardships on his own people rather than back down in Ukraine is, unfortunately, not surprising. His entire adventure in Ukraine, from the annexation of Crimea to the active military support for secessionists in eastern Ukraine, reflects his view of a zero-sum contest between Russia and the West in which Ukraine is the central battlefield. Even as Russia ordered the retaliatory sanctions, NATO reported that Russian troops were again massing on the Ukrainian border, once again raising the dangerous possibility of a direct intervention in support of the rebels, who are under attack by Ukrainian troops.
Further, in addition to the ban on food imports, Mr. Medvedev indicated that Russia was also considering a ban on flights over Siberia, a measure that would add to the cost of Europe-Asia travel, but would also cost Russia millions in transit fees.
Polls show that Mr. Putin is hugely popular with Russians, and no doubt his latest show of defiance against the West will find applause. But that could begin to change once prices for basic needs begin to rise and jobs begin to vanish in a contracting economy. The new economic elite, already funneling their money abroad at high rates, will not welcome the loss of the fine European foods that fill Moscow supermarkets. Many in the middle class are already wondering what it is they’re paying so huge a price for, and that question is bound to spread as Russians lower on the economic scale begin to feel the pain.
It is critical at this juncture for the Western allies to remain united, even if the cost of the sanctions — their own and Russia’s — are not equally borne. The European Union has a fund to compensate farmers for lost production in times of crisis, and this is just such a time. Sanctions are a painful weapon, and Russia has been a lucrative market for Europe. But the alternatives to sanctions — military action on one side, or doing nothing in the face of Mr. Putin’s brazen challenge to the post-Soviet order — are not really options.
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