Russia Moves to Top of UK’s Threat List Along With Terrorism and Cyber War

Bruce Jones

IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly

August 7, 2014

Russia to top UK threat assessment levels

Russia is being raised to the top tier of UK threat categories following its actions in Crimea and east Ukraine, the chairman of the UK defence committee has told IHS Jane’s. Russian ‘little green man’ pictured in Crimea. Source: PA

Russia is being placed at the top of the United Kingdom’s defence threat list, on a par with terrorism and cyber warfare, it has been revealed.

Speaking to IHS Jane’s on 4 August, Rory Stewart, chair of the House of Commons Defence Committee, said: “Until recently threats from Russia have been rated at the bottom level Tier 3. They are now seen and will soon be graded as the top level, Tier 1.”

Following the committee’s 22 July Defence and Security Review Report on the implications of the Ukraine conflict and the seizure of Crimea, there has been a complete turnaround in UK government defence policy, with the adoption of “95% of the committee’s recommendations”, he said.

Stewart said that assurances by the UK’s previous defence secretary, Philip Hammond, that UK forces could fully meet all contingencies have also been brushed aside.

He added that there are difficulties involved in this policy change and the turnabout in priorities, as Baltic deterrence and protection requires air defence and submarine defence in particular. The recent ‘Steadfast Jazz’ exercise in the Baltic states in November 2013 involved 6,000 troops, whereas exercises in the 1980s and those currently staged by Russia involve hundreds of thousands, he said.

On 2 August UK Prime Minister David Cameron wrote to NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, ahead of the alliance’s September summit, recommending that NATO should transform its rapid reaction capabilities into a 21st century update of the ACE Mobile Force, a move which will require expense and commitment from all member countries, including the UK.

Stewart said the UK faces considerable losses in capacity, in high level command and control, armoured warfare, and in intelligence assessments, with only two defence intelligence staff officers studying Russia. Corps level command and control will require significant investment, as despite parliamentary protests, the UK shut down its respected ARAG advanced assessment group in 2010, he said.

The committee has urged updates to NATO Articles 4 and 5 on ‘Collective Defence’ - its responses to and what constitutes armed attack. Stewart said the committee favours adding protocols and MoUs (Memoranda of Understanding) rather than the “can of worms” of entire treaty renegotiation.

"Above all we need politicians to practise decision-making as they did in the past on the ‘Wintex’ series of exercises," said Steward, quoting outgoing Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Richard Shirreff that "politicians lack muscle memory".

"We are facing ‘Hybrid Warfare’: a combination of actions by the armed forces, special operations and the intelligence services, which appear generally to have primacy under the close control of Vladimir Putin," he said. "There are two strands, the tactical and the political, used to bemuse leaderships with rumour and propaganda and to topple regimes. It is very nimble.

"That is why we should be most cautious about any ceasefire offers. We do not want long-term indefinite ceasefires leaving everyone a hostage to fortune, but a long-term stable and legitimate government in Ukraine," he said.