August 22, 2014
SANA / Raqqa Media Center AP PhotoPresident Bashar Al-Assad wants to force his own people and the West to make an unpalatable choice: either he stays in place or Syria falls into the hands of ISIS's fanatics.
Stopping the Islamic State’s momentum creates a major shift in psychology. Guerrilla armies thrive on a sense of inevitability. The Islamic State has grown in size, demoralized its enemies and attracted recruits from all over the world because it seemed unstoppable, a real caliphate in the making.
On the face of it, there can be few more implacable foes than Bashar Al-Assad and the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham.
Syria’s ruler is a secular dictator and a follower of the Alawite sect of Shiite Islam; the leaders of ISIS are Sunni zealots on a divine mission to build an Islamic state.
Logic would suggest Mr. Assad and ISIS are out to destroy one another. But logic works in curious ways in the Middle East. As he wages a ruthless struggle to hold power, the evidence suggests the Syrian president has quietly co-operated with his supposed enemies and actively helped their rise.
AFP/Getty ImagesAn image made available by Jihadist media outlet Welayat Raqa on June 30, 2014, allegedly shows a member of tISIS parading with a long-range missile on a street in the northern rebel-held Syrian city of Raqa.
The thinking behind this apparently perverse strategy is simple. Mr. Assad wants to force his own people and the West to make an unpalatable choice: either he stays in place or Syria falls into the hands of ISIS’s fanatics. When push comes to shove, he thinks most Syrians and the Western powers will back him over the fundamentalists.
But this plan will only work if ISIS is the most powerful rebel force. The signs are Mr. Assad has done his best to make this come true.
As recently as 2012, ISIS was a marginalized movement confined to a small area of Iraq. Then Mr. Assad emptied Sednaya jail near Damascus of some of its most dangerous jihadist prisoners. If he hoped these men would join ISIS and strengthen its leadership, that aspiration was fulfilled. Several figures in the movement’s hierarchy are believed to be former inmates of Syrian prisons, carefully released by the regime.
By last year, ISIS had captured oilfields in eastern Syria. But to profit, they needed a customer for the oil. Mr. Assad’s regime began buying the oil from the jihadists, so helping to fund the movement, say Western and Middle Eastern governments.
Having provided ISIS with talented commanders, courtesy of his prison amnesties, and filled its coffers with oil money, Mr. Assad then focused his military campaign on the non-Islamist rebels.
Every town and suburb held by the Free Syrian Army was relentlessly pounded from the air and ground. A year ago, the regime even used poison gas against insurgent strongholds in Damascus.
But ISIS enjoyed a curious degree of immunity from these onslaughts. Until the past few weeks, Syria’s air force had scarcely bothered to bomb the town of Raqqa, which serves as the unofficial capital of ISIS.
“The regime was very happy to see [ISIS] rise and it has helped their narrative that they face an extremist Al-Qaeda type enemy against which all force is justified,” said Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding.
KHALIL MAZRAAWI/AFP/Getty ImagesA Syrian living in Jordan shouts slogans against Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad during a rally outside of the Syrian Embassy in the capital Amman, on August 21, 2014, as they gather to mark the first anniversary of a chemical weapons attack on the capital's Ghouta region, a stronghold of the rebel movement, which the United States estimated killed up to 1,400 people.
“The evidence stacks up that they were definitely encouraging this sort of movement.”
The signs are ISIS has returned the favour. Instead of trying to bring down Mr. Assad, it has concentrated on fighting non-Islamist rebels. When the movement reached what may prove to be the apex of its military strength this year, ISIS did not try to overthrow the regime. Instead, it invaded northern Iraq — and triggered the current crisis.
Like many Middle Eastern dictators before him, Mr. Assad hopes the West will accept him as the only bulwark against the fanatics whom he has helped.
Put bluntly, he wants to be an arsonist and a firefighter at the same time. The question is whether he will get away with this time-honoured ploy.
AFP/Getty ImagesAn image made available by Jihadist media outlet Welayat Raqa on June 30, 2014, allegedly shows a member of ISIS parading with a tank in a street in the northern rebel-held Syrian city of Raqa.
BARAA AL-HALABI/AFP/Getty ImagesSyrian residents and rescue workers search the rubble for survivors following an air strike by government forces on July 17, 2014 in the northern city of Aleppo.
AP Photo/Edlib News Network ENNAnti-Syrian government protesters carry banners and agiant Syrian revolution flag during a demonstration in Idlib province, northern Syria, Friday, Aug 22, 2014. The death toll from three years of Syria's civil war has risen to more than 191,000 people, the United Nations reported Friday.
No comments:
Post a Comment