Analysis: Hamas-IS equation as perceived by the US

Obama's willingness to aid in the fight against radical Islam isn't a Carte Blanche for Netanyahu in Gaza

Imagine the Israelis and the Palestinians engulfed in a long and bloody war, with large number of casualties on both sides and images of death and destruction being splashed on the front pages of newspapers around the world. Large demonstrations in the Arab World blast Israel and its American ally while the Saudis, the Egyptians and other Arab governments, joined by the Soviet Union, demand that Washington "do something" ASAP to stop Israeli aggression and as American officials worry that the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict would result in rising oil prices and ignite Soviet diplomatic moves.

Well, you don't have to imagine such a scenario. It happened in 1982 after Israel responded to an alleged terrorist attack by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) by attacking PLO targets as well as civilian centers in Lebanon, and eventually occupying Beirut. The pro-Israeli administration of President Ronald Reagan came under enormous pressure at home and abroad to invest time and resources in trying to bring the war to an end and force Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. The Americans did that and even ended up deploying American peacekeeping troops in Beirut.

Now...Fast-forward thirty years later as the fighting between Israel and Hamas-led Palestinian forces is raging in Gaza. Once again there are images of civilian deaths as well as international anger directed at Israel. But this time most of the Arab governments and public aren't as mobilized in support of the Palestinian cause as they were in 1982 (or for that matter, during most of the post-1948 era). In fact, Egypt and Saudi Arabia seem to be distancing themselves from Hamas; and Cairo is even providing diplomatic backing for the Israelis.

And there are certainly no Arab threats to impose an oil embargo on the United States and unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War, none of today's leading global players is identifying itself with the Palestinians. With the exception of a few American liberal pundits and leftist and Muslim activists no one has been actually putting pressure on the Obama administration to "do something" and restrain the Israeli government.

Moreover, in the aftermath of the costly military adventure in Iraq and the failed campaign to promote democracy in the Arab World and against the backdrop of the messy post-Arab-Spring realities, Americans are not in the mood to be drawn into new military as well as diplomatic interventions in the Middle East. This sentiment have been gaining momentum as the American economy has been narrowing its dependency on Middle Eastern oil and as Washington continues to shift its geo-strategic focus from the Middle East to East Asia.

All that may explain why after US Secretary of State John Kerry failed in his efforts to negotiate a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas -- and in the process was criticized by Israeli officials for allegedly playing into the hands of Hamas -- President Barack Obama decided to disengage from active diplomacy to end the hostilities. This decision also came after months of negotiations, led by Kerry, aimed at reviving the Israeli-Palestinian peace process that eventually led nowhere.

In a way, the Obama administration adopted what can be regarded now as a "benign neglect" attitude towards Hamas-Israel war. It continued to express support for Israel's right to defend itself against Hamas' missile attacks and terrorism but also expressed some concern over the loss of civilian lives in Gaza as a result of the Israeli bombardment.

At the same time, despite calling for a ceasefire, the White House refrained from interfering in the negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians taking part in Cairo under Egyptian mediation. The message from Washington was clear and simple: We have a lot of domestic and international problems on our policy plate, ranging from illegal immigration and race riots at home to tensions with Russia and China. So you know our phone number. Give us a call when you need us.

This American approach seemed to be favoring Israel's position by allowing Israel more freedom to complete its mission in Gaza. The problem is that it was never clear what that mission exactly was. Although it was assumed that in addition to a ceasefire, Israel would demand some form of demilitarization of the Gaza Strip, the conventional wisdom has been that Israel was not interested in re-occupying the area.

But with the talks in Cairo ending in a stalemate, leading to the renewal of the fighting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have no choice but to make that phone call to the White House.

During his latest press conference in which he equated Hamas with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (IS) Netanyahu seemed to be proposing that Israel and the United States are now fighting together on the same front against radical Islamism, the assumption being that the Americans would provide him all the help he needs to decimate the militant Palestinian group.

But the Americanized "Bibi" may be misreading the political map in Washington. While it expressed a willingness to provide limited assistance, including air-support to the Iraqi military and Kurdish forces fighting IS, the Americans are not about to launch a War of Civilizations against radical Islam in the Middle East. Like in the case of Israel and Gaza, the American message to the Iraqis, Kurds, Turks, Saudis and to other players in the region is that Washington isn't going to deliver the goods to them --- but only to help them help themselves.

The bottom line is that if Netanyahu does make that phone call to the White House he cannot expect to get a diplomatic Carte Blanche from Obama, but to achieve through American mediation -- and indirectly through Turkish and Qatari channels -- a ceasefire agreement that would include major concessions to Hamas. If Netanyahu rejects that limited offer, he shouldn't be surprised if he'll start getting the busy signal from the White House's phone operator.

Leon Hadar is a senior analyst with Wikstrat, a geo-strategic consulting firm, and teaches international relations at the University of Maryland, College Park.