Elements of the United States Fifth, Sixth, and Tenth Fleets will be needed to dislodge the Islamic State, support Kurds, and thwart Iran
As the administration and Congress weigh whether to reach out to Iraqi Kurdistan President Masoud Barzani to explore materially supporting the effective, but underequipped Peshmerga, the naval component will be absolutely critical. There are no status of forces agreements on the deck of a CVN. Similarly, the aircraft the task group can spin up almost immediately after direction comes down from the National Command Authority don’t rely on unreliable partners. Naval air wings don’t need to ask permission to fly anywhere.
To complement these military missions, national intelligence agency elements will be engaged in area familiarization, reconnaissance and targeting missions. This also will necessitate US Navy support, from E-2D Hawkeyes to Prowlers directly supporting US Special Operations Forces who are in turn supporting national intelligence agency taskings.
Kurdish forces made up of thousands of insurgents from Turkey and Syria attacked Islamic State positions at Sinjar, one of three Iraqi cities that fell to the Islamic State over the weekend, while the vaunted Peshmerga, loyal to Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, pressed to lift the Islamic State’s siege of the Mosul Dam, Iraq’s largest and an important source of electricity.
As this went to print, the dam had been overrun by Islamic State fighters due to US inaction and a refusal of the White House to resupply the Peshmerga. U.S. officials said they were working with the Kurdistan Regional Government in Irbil and Iraq’s central government in Baghdad to counter the Islamic State’s advance. But it was unclear what material assistance, if any, the United States was lending to the fight. Now we know—next to nothing.
Traditionally, Pentagon spokesmen have equivocated on whether the US provides military assistance to the Kurds to fight ISIS. There are already signs that the Central Intelligence Agency and Joint Special Operations Command have made preparations to arm and train the Peshmerga directly.
Time is of the essence. If Islamists are able to successfully defeat Kurdish forces, the remaining Kurdish population will flee to Turkey and other neighboring countries, to include Syria. Any remaining Kurds, especially the Yazidis, will be left to the slaughter. The United States cannot stand idly by while atrocities of this magnitude are committed. President Obama already increased the operational tempo of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance flights, but continued shortcomings in ISF targeting ability evidenced by daily airstrikes and bombardments of civilians evidences a need for even greater ISR cooperation and more discriminate weaponry.
The U.S. can achieve this by employing an expanded advise-and-assist mission, as well as an aggressive deployment of paramilitaries and elements of US Special Operations Command outside the Green Zone. Clandestine action will be key to success. Aircraft carriers decide what is on their deck and what is not. If you decide to covertly support Kurdish forces, naval aircraft can complete the circuit and return to deck. No landing in Turkey or Jordan in plain view of anyone with eyesight. No cell phone pictures from the flightline, which is exactly how the RQ-170 Sentinel was exposed. Whatever you say was in Iraq’s airspace was there, and whatever you deny was in their airspace wasn’t there because you decide what was there.
Arming the Kurds has immediate strategic significance. Iran ‘s Shi’a militia proxies now control Baghdad and several key southern Shi’a population centers, and have deployed fighters in Diyala, Samarra, Tal Afar, and Tikrit. University of Maryland researcher Phillip Smyth, who follows Shi’a Islamist movements, has been tracking Iranian militia activities in Iraq for years sand recently stated that Iran views the current crisis as “their moment” in Iraq. Iran cannot be considered a credible actor or desirable partner in Iraq.
It is likely Iraq will splinter into three parts, and as that becomes more likely it is necessary to make Iranian forces in Iraq the focus of a robust counterintelligence and military deception campaign to deprive them of the tactical advantage. Even if the Islamic State is vanquished, when Iraq splinters it will be necessary to kill or capture IRGC in Iraq before they can lead Shia militias in taking the US Embassy in Baghdad and the consular presence in Erbil. The Peshmerga do not fear IRGC, and have proven to be fierce and unrelenting fighters. Kurdish participation is absolutely critical to combating Iranian influence, politically and militarily.
Victory takes primacy over all else.
US policy in Iraq is at a crossroads. There is more than hope; there is a way forward, and a plan, if the White House stands resolute. If the Kurds are successful in holding off ISIS and establishing sovereignty it will be very difficult for the Islamic State, the government in Baghdad or their benefactors in Iran to further oppress the Kurdish people.
With the government in Baghdad losing more and more control of the country the Kurds in northern Iraq are relying on ethnic solidarity to maintain their control as ISIS continues to expand its power. Recently , the KRG signaled its plans to become sovereign and split from Iraq, an idea that was previously considered a non-starter in Iraqi political circles. Francois Hollande and Massoud Barzani, the leader of France and the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government respectively, “expressed their willingness to cooperate to block offensive by the State Islamic in the north-eastern Iraq” as this went to print. “Persecution by the terrorist group of religious minorities, including Christians and Yazidis, is a crime of the utmost gravity, ” Barzani continued.
These crimes cannot go unanswered, and the United States must act urgently. Failure of the United States to support sensible policies in Iraq will ensure the rapid dissipation of American influence in Baghdad and across the region and cannot be allowed. The primacy of American power will be central to that effort.
Robert Caruso served in the United States Navy as a special security officer supporting the Strike Operations Officer and Operations Officer of a Carrier Strike Group, a Joint Task Force, and embarked National Mission Force elements. He also served with the Office of the Secretary of Defense at the Department of Defense, the Bureau of Diplomatic Security at the Department of State, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, and as a contractor for the Department of the Army. Robert is a contributor to The Boston Globe and The Guardian and regularly provides research and analysis for the Center for International Maritime Security and The Eastern Project, based in Washington and Cambridge, Mass. respectively. He serves as the inaugural president of the Tampa Chapter and associate editor of the NextWar Blog here at CIMSEC.
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