By Alex Ward
August 13, 2014
The U.S. Air Force recently released its newest strategy, “A Call to the Future,” and it is the best of its kind put out by a U.S. defense and security entity in a long time. The new concept—“strategic agility”—will allow the Air Force to employ new technologies, better deal with increasingly powerful state and non-state actors, and adapt operations to new environments over the next thirty years. The strategy is so comprehensive that other military branches—and even the State Department and White House—should incorporate these themes into their future strategies.
“Strategic agility” is based on the “four strategic trends of the emerging global environment.” First on the list is “rapidly emerging technological breakthroughs.” The Air Force rightly addresses this trend first, promoting it as the most important. There are myriad technologies – some already here and some on the horizon – that threaten to disrupt the status quo. Technologies like big data, automation and robotics, urban and green technologies, advanced manufacturing (3D and 4D printing), and quantum computing will lead to new methods of warfighting that could potentially be more effective and lethal.
Second, the Air Force accepts that we live in a perpetual era of “geopolitical instability.” We are in a Westphalian-Plus world, where non-state actors like ISIS threaten the security of traditional nation-states, creating new instability. Finding ways to effectively deal with these actors, while simultaneously counteracting revisionist state actors, will be one of the biggest challenges for military services and central governments alike.
Third, the Air Force grapples with a “wide range of operating environments.” There are many volatile regions around the world that may require U.S. action. The varying theaters and types of conflict require the Air Force to prepare for almost any contingency.
Lastly, the Air Force warns of the “increasing importance and vulnerability of the global commons.” Understanding that technological availability provides everyone more access to the commons, including cyberspace, is crucial. Finding ways and means to protect these spaces will be a big, but important, challenge for the service.
It’s hard to argue with the diagnosis and the prescription. Indeed, the U.S. government should fold some of the concepts into a new, sorely needed national strategy. For example, since it is now known that technologies will not only change the battlefield but also civilian life, the U.S. government needs to strengthen private-sector partnerships to anticipate, shape, and leverage technological change. The continued economic and military strength of the United States depends on our continued edge in developing and deploying groundbreaking new technologies. Similarly, understanding future technologies, and how they can ruin best laid American plans, will be just as vital to deter and defend against them.
Global instability will be a fact of life of the future global environment. Up until today, the United States rightfully focused on maintaining a stable post-World War II international order. Now, as state power is eroding and other forces rise, instability becomes the new normal. What will characterize an effective force—and a leading global power—will be the country that can marshal its resources to harness the instability for national advantage. Focusing on maintaining stability would be useless and futile. While global instability is not desirable, it need not be damaging if managed effectively.
While the Air Force’s strategy is cutting-edge, it still has its weaknesses. For one, a dogmatic focus on agility—getting smaller and sleeker—loses the quality of quantity. Having overwhelming firepower will be crucial for dealing with a high amount of contingencies. In addition, it is clear this strategy was developed under the correct assumption that the fiscal reality for defense spending will be dire. Transforming the Air Force in such a fundamental way will require a lot of money, so the Air Force must convince Congress that it is money well spent.
The Air Force seems to be thinking more strategically than other U.S. services and certainly more than the Defense Department as a whole, as evidenced by the underwhelmingQuadrennial Defense Review. Other branches of the military and U.S. government must take note and begin to think more strategically for future shocks. If anything, the Air Force did a wonderful job of showing the “grounded” school that it remains a vital service for the United States.
Alex Ward is a program assistant in the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security where he focuses on US defense policy and strategy. He tweets at @alexwardb.
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