Some of the Best Intelligence Out There Is Not From Secret Sources, But From Open Sources

Mike Hayden

Washington Times

July 10, 2014

HAYDEN: Some of the best intelligence is no secret at all — it’s social

That said, respondents were overweighted toward the more stable Kurdish north, reflecting Web disruptions caused by fighting and instability elsewhere — an interesting piece of intelligence in itself.

When asked whether they supported the government in Baghdad, some 70 percent of Shiites said they did — not surprising because this is the first Shiite-dominated government in Iraq in the modern era. Equally unsurprising, less than a third of Sunnis and Kurds backed what they have largely labeled a predatory regime.

Three-fourths of Shiites, two-thirds of Sunnis and half of all Kurds cared enough, however, to say that both Sunnis and Shiites should be in the government.

When asked about the wisdom of foreign intervention, no group reflected an absolute majority supporting American involvement and Sunnis (the likely targets of such an intervention) were firmly opposed (44 percent, with only 30 percent supporting). Surprisingly, a solid quarter of each group responded that they simply “didn’t know” when it came to whether or not they supported American action, perhaps a reflection of the level of crisis and of uncertainty in the country.

The prospect of Iranian action was even less popular. Even among Shiites, those supporting 

No one can question that politics in Baghdad’s Green Zone still matter and American intelligence will surely continue to work feverishly to ferret out questions like the intentions of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Does he intend to stay? At what cost? In the face of what opposition?

But in this crisis, the attitudes of average Iraqis — the “social intelligence” referenced in the INSA report — matter as well. Even a powerful country like our own cannot keep a state together if its inhabitants have already given up on it.

Whether or not Iraqis are committed to a unitary Iraqi state will likely be more decisive than any course of action Mr. al-Maliki might set, and American intelligence would be well advised to include this in its list of priority requirements.

• Gen. Michael Hayden is a former director of the CIA and the National Security Agency. He can be reached at mhayden@washingtontimes.com.