http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/continuous-substantive-procurement-for-indian-defense/
ByDr Amarjit Singh
Date : 30 Jun , 2014
Indian Air Force C-17 Globemaster III
India is a unique country for many reasons. But one possibly under-looked factor is that it faces security or destabilizing threats from every neighbor. This is even worse than Israel, which is traditionally surrounded only by enemies, but has signed peace (no-war) treaties with Jordan and Egypt that have stood for 35 years.
India’s capabilities are woefully below its needs, the neighborhood is hostile, and the future is more uncertain and unpredictable than ever before. India needs to take its defense situation much more seriously than it has before.
However, India faces threats of arms and currency smuggling through Nepal; threats of Chinese occupation of parts of Bhutan who India has vowed to defend; use of Myanmar soil as refuge by the United Liberation Front of Assam , National Socialist Council of Nagaland, All Tripura Tiger Force, and others; mass-scale illegal immigration from Bangladesh; Tamils of the south who favor and supply Tamils of Sri Lanka, creating a combustible situation; turmoil in the Maldives with potential military disfavor to India; and, of course, our traditional friends (sic.) the Pakistanis and Chinese.
A stone’s throw away is Afghanistan, a boiling cauldron, which promises to further add fuel to the fire through Pashtun fighters and Islamic radicals waging a liberation war on Kashmir and Hindostan[i]. It could be that with this in mind, the new Prime Minister sought to build bridges with immediate neighbors of the SAARC countries first and foremost, a necessary step for peace on the subcontinent.
But, it is the very risk from all sides of the neighborhood that should raise India’s antenna. Thus defense preparedness must be a continuous process, rather than sporadic in fits and jerks. Whether India buys equipment from overseas or produces it indigenously is secondary. First and foremost is that India must have the weapons and military assets it needs, and then some. Every year needs to witness a continuous and substantive increase in its fighting assets. However, anyone will prefer that fighting equipment be manufactured indigenously, but that is secondary to the main argument of this article.
It is with a great sense of relief we see that the defense services are being given much overdue attention by the new government. And, the recent release of funds for the indigenous aircraft carrier, $2 billion for the Karwar naval base, promise to place the MMRCA procurement on the fast track, emphasizing infrastructure build-up in border areas of the northeast, building a war memorial for the navy for its magnificent victory in 1971, and a promise by the defense minister to fulfill the needs of the military are all in the perfectly correct direction.
Yet, the military has been so badly starved and thinned in the past 40 years that even a 50% increase in fighting assets would be insufficient, given that the military should have been at least twice its size now in modern weaponry compared to at the time of the Bangladesh war, given the increase in threats from its neighbors. Whereas, the number of schools, houses, universities, hospitals, and roads and power generation keep getting added in quantity every year, India’s army has been capped since 1965 at 1.1 million troops; and only 42 squadrons are sanctioned for the air force, which are already below force levels. This capping of the size of the military is unreasonable and uncalled for when other civilian sectors are allowed to grow.
…only 42 squadrons are sanctioned for the air force, which are already below force levels. This capping of the size of the military is unreasonable and uncalled for when other civilian sectors are allowed to grow.
What concerns this author is that a comprehensive long term military procurement strategy on an annual basis has not been formulated out to 2045 that fulfills India’s needs over every five-year period. A 30-year planning horizon is common in long-term planning, but in India the planning horizon is only to the length of the nose.Correspondingly, whereas, the planning commission should have a member for defense production, it doesn’t[ii].
So, the basics of continuous procurement are that every year fresh assets of all types should be added to the arsenal, without exception. Whether it is missiles of all types, or battle tanks, or howitzers, or fighting or transport aircraft, or submarines and aircraft carriers – every year should see a fresh and substantive induction. Moreover, this increase shouldn’t come every five years or ten years, but every year. Expansion is not the only reason for induction, there is also obsolescence that needs to be covered. In addition, cannibalization of damaged equipment should be prevented, since it only depletes force levels.
Hence, we see that India purchased 155 mm howitzers in 1987, only to not procure them ever since, such that Israeli Soltan guns had to be brought in to save the day at Kargil. India buys three or six submarines at a time once a decade, or at some such low-level frequency, and thinks it has launched an arrow[iii]. These are examples of a faulty procurement strategy.
In recent years, India has had a program for eight P8-I Orions, six C-130J Hercules aircraft, one amphibious landing dock (INS Jalashwa) and 126 MMRCA Rafale. The defense ministry announced a few years ago that it had plans to build two indigenous aircraft carriers, and six submarines under license at Mazagon docks. Is that all? Did anybody not think at all beyond that? And, do you think machines don’t break down? And why only six or eight or one or two of any type, just to stop cold turkey after that? Why not a continuous induction every year, for all time? And, who has thought how India will quickly replenish its fighting assets when equipment are lost in war, if it doesn’t have an annual plan for re-induction of fighting assets? So, herein lies the central nerve of the problem.
To overcome this lapse, a continuous stream of assets must be inducted annually. Whether this be through indigenous production or overseas production is not germane to the argument, as mentioned before. It must simply be understood that defense is the most important responsibility of a nation. Should there be no defense of the nation, all the schools and hospitals and roads and industries go to naught, since they all fall into enemy hands, which our enemies would love to have.
…this is a great wish list, and that we need money for these things that we don’t have, I ask a simple question: “How come the net wealth in the world today is at $241 trillion dollars when Adam and Eve didn’t even have clothes on their back…
Therefore, to fulfill this defense philosophy, continuous substantive procurement is necessary. Hence, I offer that four to six submarines be procured every year[iv], three to six anti-submarine aircraft or similar, five to ten heavy transport aircraft, ninety fighter aircraft; and one infantry division be raised every year; and at least one armored brigade, and one missile artillery regiment be added every year; a brigade of the vital special forces be raised every year … and so on.One aircraft carrier battle-group can be planned for every two years; and about one month’s fuel reserves for sustaining a prolonged war should be added to fuel reserves every year.
The experts can further discuss how many they need every year, but keep in mind that India’s capabilities are woefully below its needs, the neighborhood is hostile, the world situation is tense, terrorism is on the rise, the oil crisis is inevitable, and the future is more uncertain and unpredictable than ever before. India needs to take its defense situation much more seriously than it has before[v]. Playing catch-up is the need of the times for India. And, changing the culture and mentality of the past 67 years is necessary.
Before someone says that this is a great wish list, and that we need money for these things that we don’t have, I ask a simple question: “How come the net wealth in the world today is at $241 trillion dollars when Adam and Eve didn’t even have clothes on their back, let alone gold, silver, or monetary notes?” Thus, how come all the wealth of today came literally from nowhere?
Consequently, it is evident that money is not required to generate new wealth. Then what is required? Sweat, hard work, determination, strategy, and prayer are required. As such, the theories of all economists are half-wrong; when they are correct, they work right only 50% of the time; and after working right for a while they often go wrong. Not Adam Smith, Karl Marx, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, Hyman Minsky, or even our own Amartya Sen or the great maverick Subramaniam Swamy[vi] have ever had even a small percentage of answers.
When every great economist’s theories are analyzed for their success in practical applications, very few get more than a passing grade, and a “C” grade is hard for any of them. Finally, when money is invested into indigenous production, inflation is offset, the GDP grows, jobs are created, and defense capabilities are enhanced. Nothing can be better[vii].
Without military power, there is no respect, no regional power, and no world power. Without understanding defense as the number one priority of a nation, and actively working towards it, there is no effective defense.
Not one of them understands the power of Laxmi and Saraswati; not one of them understands the power of destiny; not one of them has factored in the power of determination. And, not one of them knows what Durga can do. In addition, few economists scarcely understand what engineering does; few realize that engineering adds the maximum GDP to a growing nation; few realize that it’s not money that makes a country grow, but engineering and manufacturing power.
All fighting machines, missiles, and bombs are engineered products, using technology, research, sweat, blood, and tears. The white-collared economist dreaming wild theories without working in the sun or toiling in the fields scarcely understands the power of sweat and strength. Thus, money is the least of any problem of a nation on the march.
To illustrate this in recent times, take your attention to Germany, which was out and defeated and in massive debt after World War I. In 1933 itself, their economy was in shambles, inflation had killed their backs, and people took salaries back home in wheelbarrows. Yet, within six years they had created the most formidable fighting forces that would make the world shake, and dislodge the hold of colonial powers from their Asian and African colonies.
In four years of WW II, the USA manufactured 295,000[viii] aircraft of all types when it was itself deeply in depression till 1936, and had confiscated all personal gold holdings of every US citizen in 1935. It is not money that makes money: it is a different, mystical tune and song that makes for becoming an industrial power with undefeatable fighting forces. Here, necessity is among the powerful forces that make for engineering power and a strong military. And, India presently has the necessity to develop its engineering prowess for defense production.
That said, let’s emphasize that just like schools and hospitals, India needs to add military assets on an annual basis, not simply replenish lost capacity every year. It is time, India climbed to the higher rung. Without military power, there is no respect, no regional power, and no world power. Without understanding defense as the number one priority of a nation, and actively working towards it, there is no effective defense. Without fully enabling our military forces, and without giving our best prayers and wishes to the men and women under arms, there is a failure of morality. Without appreciating those who are ready to lay down their lives for the nation, and without giving them the necessary arms to fight with success, there is a total loss of integrity. When morality and integrity fail, virtually all is lost.
Reference:
[i]And not far away is the ISIS that could conceivably join forces with the Sunni Taliban.
[ii] It is a different matter that there have been calls to abolish the planning commission.
[iii] From the Hindi phrase, “teer mar diya (तीर मार दिया).”
[iv]Which is totally indicated, and is per India’s needs.
[v]Without the politicians having any fear of a military coup, which is most unlikely and quite impossible. Hitherto, Nehru and his like denied assets to the military on the grounds they would be strengthened to launch a coup. That was a perfect example of distorted and twisted thinking.
[vi]Swamy should be flattered I placed his name among the greats!
[vii] My “engineering economics” stand to work better than the economics of economists.
[viii]“United States aircraft production during World War II,”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_aircraft_production_during_World_War_II, accessed June 2014.
ByDr Amarjit Singh
Date : 30 Jun , 2014
Indian Air Force C-17 Globemaster III
India is a unique country for many reasons. But one possibly under-looked factor is that it faces security or destabilizing threats from every neighbor. This is even worse than Israel, which is traditionally surrounded only by enemies, but has signed peace (no-war) treaties with Jordan and Egypt that have stood for 35 years.
India’s capabilities are woefully below its needs, the neighborhood is hostile, and the future is more uncertain and unpredictable than ever before. India needs to take its defense situation much more seriously than it has before.
However, India faces threats of arms and currency smuggling through Nepal; threats of Chinese occupation of parts of Bhutan who India has vowed to defend; use of Myanmar soil as refuge by the United Liberation Front of Assam , National Socialist Council of Nagaland, All Tripura Tiger Force, and others; mass-scale illegal immigration from Bangladesh; Tamils of the south who favor and supply Tamils of Sri Lanka, creating a combustible situation; turmoil in the Maldives with potential military disfavor to India; and, of course, our traditional friends (sic.) the Pakistanis and Chinese.
A stone’s throw away is Afghanistan, a boiling cauldron, which promises to further add fuel to the fire through Pashtun fighters and Islamic radicals waging a liberation war on Kashmir and Hindostan[i]. It could be that with this in mind, the new Prime Minister sought to build bridges with immediate neighbors of the SAARC countries first and foremost, a necessary step for peace on the subcontinent.
But, it is the very risk from all sides of the neighborhood that should raise India’s antenna. Thus defense preparedness must be a continuous process, rather than sporadic in fits and jerks. Whether India buys equipment from overseas or produces it indigenously is secondary. First and foremost is that India must have the weapons and military assets it needs, and then some. Every year needs to witness a continuous and substantive increase in its fighting assets. However, anyone will prefer that fighting equipment be manufactured indigenously, but that is secondary to the main argument of this article.
It is with a great sense of relief we see that the defense services are being given much overdue attention by the new government. And, the recent release of funds for the indigenous aircraft carrier, $2 billion for the Karwar naval base, promise to place the MMRCA procurement on the fast track, emphasizing infrastructure build-up in border areas of the northeast, building a war memorial for the navy for its magnificent victory in 1971, and a promise by the defense minister to fulfill the needs of the military are all in the perfectly correct direction.
Yet, the military has been so badly starved and thinned in the past 40 years that even a 50% increase in fighting assets would be insufficient, given that the military should have been at least twice its size now in modern weaponry compared to at the time of the Bangladesh war, given the increase in threats from its neighbors. Whereas, the number of schools, houses, universities, hospitals, and roads and power generation keep getting added in quantity every year, India’s army has been capped since 1965 at 1.1 million troops; and only 42 squadrons are sanctioned for the air force, which are already below force levels. This capping of the size of the military is unreasonable and uncalled for when other civilian sectors are allowed to grow.
…only 42 squadrons are sanctioned for the air force, which are already below force levels. This capping of the size of the military is unreasonable and uncalled for when other civilian sectors are allowed to grow.
What concerns this author is that a comprehensive long term military procurement strategy on an annual basis has not been formulated out to 2045 that fulfills India’s needs over every five-year period. A 30-year planning horizon is common in long-term planning, but in India the planning horizon is only to the length of the nose.Correspondingly, whereas, the planning commission should have a member for defense production, it doesn’t[ii].
So, the basics of continuous procurement are that every year fresh assets of all types should be added to the arsenal, without exception. Whether it is missiles of all types, or battle tanks, or howitzers, or fighting or transport aircraft, or submarines and aircraft carriers – every year should see a fresh and substantive induction. Moreover, this increase shouldn’t come every five years or ten years, but every year. Expansion is not the only reason for induction, there is also obsolescence that needs to be covered. In addition, cannibalization of damaged equipment should be prevented, since it only depletes force levels.
Hence, we see that India purchased 155 mm howitzers in 1987, only to not procure them ever since, such that Israeli Soltan guns had to be brought in to save the day at Kargil. India buys three or six submarines at a time once a decade, or at some such low-level frequency, and thinks it has launched an arrow[iii]. These are examples of a faulty procurement strategy.
In recent years, India has had a program for eight P8-I Orions, six C-130J Hercules aircraft, one amphibious landing dock (INS Jalashwa) and 126 MMRCA Rafale. The defense ministry announced a few years ago that it had plans to build two indigenous aircraft carriers, and six submarines under license at Mazagon docks. Is that all? Did anybody not think at all beyond that? And, do you think machines don’t break down? And why only six or eight or one or two of any type, just to stop cold turkey after that? Why not a continuous induction every year, for all time? And, who has thought how India will quickly replenish its fighting assets when equipment are lost in war, if it doesn’t have an annual plan for re-induction of fighting assets? So, herein lies the central nerve of the problem.
To overcome this lapse, a continuous stream of assets must be inducted annually. Whether this be through indigenous production or overseas production is not germane to the argument, as mentioned before. It must simply be understood that defense is the most important responsibility of a nation. Should there be no defense of the nation, all the schools and hospitals and roads and industries go to naught, since they all fall into enemy hands, which our enemies would love to have.
…this is a great wish list, and that we need money for these things that we don’t have, I ask a simple question: “How come the net wealth in the world today is at $241 trillion dollars when Adam and Eve didn’t even have clothes on their back…
Therefore, to fulfill this defense philosophy, continuous substantive procurement is necessary. Hence, I offer that four to six submarines be procured every year[iv], three to six anti-submarine aircraft or similar, five to ten heavy transport aircraft, ninety fighter aircraft; and one infantry division be raised every year; and at least one armored brigade, and one missile artillery regiment be added every year; a brigade of the vital special forces be raised every year … and so on.One aircraft carrier battle-group can be planned for every two years; and about one month’s fuel reserves for sustaining a prolonged war should be added to fuel reserves every year.
The experts can further discuss how many they need every year, but keep in mind that India’s capabilities are woefully below its needs, the neighborhood is hostile, the world situation is tense, terrorism is on the rise, the oil crisis is inevitable, and the future is more uncertain and unpredictable than ever before. India needs to take its defense situation much more seriously than it has before[v]. Playing catch-up is the need of the times for India. And, changing the culture and mentality of the past 67 years is necessary.
Before someone says that this is a great wish list, and that we need money for these things that we don’t have, I ask a simple question: “How come the net wealth in the world today is at $241 trillion dollars when Adam and Eve didn’t even have clothes on their back, let alone gold, silver, or monetary notes?” Thus, how come all the wealth of today came literally from nowhere?
Consequently, it is evident that money is not required to generate new wealth. Then what is required? Sweat, hard work, determination, strategy, and prayer are required. As such, the theories of all economists are half-wrong; when they are correct, they work right only 50% of the time; and after working right for a while they often go wrong. Not Adam Smith, Karl Marx, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, Hyman Minsky, or even our own Amartya Sen or the great maverick Subramaniam Swamy[vi] have ever had even a small percentage of answers.
When every great economist’s theories are analyzed for their success in practical applications, very few get more than a passing grade, and a “C” grade is hard for any of them. Finally, when money is invested into indigenous production, inflation is offset, the GDP grows, jobs are created, and defense capabilities are enhanced. Nothing can be better[vii].
Without military power, there is no respect, no regional power, and no world power. Without understanding defense as the number one priority of a nation, and actively working towards it, there is no effective defense.
Not one of them understands the power of Laxmi and Saraswati; not one of them understands the power of destiny; not one of them has factored in the power of determination. And, not one of them knows what Durga can do. In addition, few economists scarcely understand what engineering does; few realize that engineering adds the maximum GDP to a growing nation; few realize that it’s not money that makes a country grow, but engineering and manufacturing power.
All fighting machines, missiles, and bombs are engineered products, using technology, research, sweat, blood, and tears. The white-collared economist dreaming wild theories without working in the sun or toiling in the fields scarcely understands the power of sweat and strength. Thus, money is the least of any problem of a nation on the march.
To illustrate this in recent times, take your attention to Germany, which was out and defeated and in massive debt after World War I. In 1933 itself, their economy was in shambles, inflation had killed their backs, and people took salaries back home in wheelbarrows. Yet, within six years they had created the most formidable fighting forces that would make the world shake, and dislodge the hold of colonial powers from their Asian and African colonies.
In four years of WW II, the USA manufactured 295,000[viii] aircraft of all types when it was itself deeply in depression till 1936, and had confiscated all personal gold holdings of every US citizen in 1935. It is not money that makes money: it is a different, mystical tune and song that makes for becoming an industrial power with undefeatable fighting forces. Here, necessity is among the powerful forces that make for engineering power and a strong military. And, India presently has the necessity to develop its engineering prowess for defense production.
That said, let’s emphasize that just like schools and hospitals, India needs to add military assets on an annual basis, not simply replenish lost capacity every year. It is time, India climbed to the higher rung. Without military power, there is no respect, no regional power, and no world power. Without understanding defense as the number one priority of a nation, and actively working towards it, there is no effective defense. Without fully enabling our military forces, and without giving our best prayers and wishes to the men and women under arms, there is a failure of morality. Without appreciating those who are ready to lay down their lives for the nation, and without giving them the necessary arms to fight with success, there is a total loss of integrity. When morality and integrity fail, virtually all is lost.
Reference:
[i]And not far away is the ISIS that could conceivably join forces with the Sunni Taliban.
[ii] It is a different matter that there have been calls to abolish the planning commission.
[iii] From the Hindi phrase, “teer mar diya (तीर मार दिया).”
[iv]Which is totally indicated, and is per India’s needs.
[v]Without the politicians having any fear of a military coup, which is most unlikely and quite impossible. Hitherto, Nehru and his like denied assets to the military on the grounds they would be strengthened to launch a coup. That was a perfect example of distorted and twisted thinking.
[vi]Swamy should be flattered I placed his name among the greats!
[vii] My “engineering economics” stand to work better than the economics of economists.
[viii]“United States aircraft production during World War II,”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_aircraft_production_during_World_War_II, accessed June 2014.
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