Missing from the top table

Missing from the top tableEgypt's turmoil prevents its regional roleS Nihal Singh

Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi greets students as he attends the graduation ceremony of Egypt's defence academies in Cairo on June 19 

AS India frets over the fate of its nationals caught up in the Iraq quagmire and regional and world powers seek to safeguard their interests, the traditional heavyweight is missing from the scene. Egypt, the inevitable deal maker and mediator, is too involved in its own problems of transition to spare time for Iraq and the onslaught of the extreme militant group ISIS as it threatens Baghdad.

The former Field Marshal and army chief, Abdel el-Sisi, has assumed the Presidency after nearly three years of turmoil. There was first the dethroning of the long-time ruler Hosni Mubarak, then the assumption of office of the first freely elected President in the country's history, Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, and most recently Mr Sisi's coronation.

Not surprisingly, most Egyptians are tired of the riots, demonstrations and deaths that have punctuated the fall of Mubarak and are looking forward to a period of quiet so that they can live their lives in peace. There is undoubtedly popular support for Mr Sisi, despite his voluble opponents in the Brotherhood, which has been banned, and the minority of liberals who despair their country going back to the Mubarak era.

However, Egypt's domestic preoccupations have left a political vacuum in the region, beset as it is with the threat of a brutal extremist organisation, ISIS, varying under the names of the Islamist State of Iraq and Syria and the Levant, and the dangers presented by the disintegration of Iraq and Syria. On the sidelines, Israel is conducting a military operation in the occupied West Bank arresting more than 150 Palestinians for the alleged kidnapping of three Israeli teenagers. It is not lost upon the region and the world that Egypt has been the traditional midwife to resolve such problems.

How long Egypt will remain absent from the top tables in the regional capitals deliberating the fate of Syria and Iraq will depend upon its ability to bring about a measure of order and prosperity to its people. Financially, the country is in dire straits living on the generosity of the Gulf monarchies who have given an initial $12 billion for immediate needs. But Egypt has a crushing subsidy burden and urgently needs economic reform.

There are limits to Egypt undertaking reforms because a major economic power in the country is the army itself with its own empire. Second, Egypt has taken crony capitalism to absurd limits and corruption forms a lubricant to economic activity. There are no signs that the army is willing to divest itself of its economic empire. Second, while the United States is continuing to give an annual subvention to Egypt for signing the peace treaty with Israel, the regional powers are pursuing their own interests.

Led by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf monarchies' aim is to keep the Muslim Brotherhood at bay. Indeed, it was a horror scenario for them during the year Mr Morsi was in power. The Brotherhood is 86 years old and has offshoots in many Arab countries. Its own strength has been built up through welfare and charity work for the poor and the underprivileged in states that do not have adequate social security nets. Hence the support the organisation draws from the grassroots, despite its periodic persecution by the authorities.

Admittedly, the present focus in the region is on the dire situation in Iraq and the continuing civil war that rages in Syria. In fact, the threat presented by the ISIS has concentrated minds as never before even leading to something of a rapprochement between the United States and Iran. The Obama administration's dilemma is obvious. He was elected on the promise of ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Americans are war weary.

For the present, President Obama has made a compromise, first by sending 275 military personnel to guard the US embassy and institutions in Baghdad, then announcing the dispatch of 300 military advisers and retaining the option to use selected air strikes. Obviously, the last thing the US wants is to get militarily involved in Iraq again, but events have a way of pre-empting options.

Against this backdrop, the great days of the Arab Spring seem far away. Tunisia, where it all started, is the only country that has tried to make a success of the revolution, despite the bumps on the way. Egypt seems to be well on the way to returning to the familiar Arab pattern of autocratic rule. Elsewhere, turmoil, rather than any hope for democracy, has marked the journey.

If Egypt is to remain the bellwether of Arab hopes and desires, there is much riding on Mr Sisi's success in bringing about a new era for his people. Initial signs are hardly propitious. The Brotherhood has been classed as a terrorist organisation, its leaders and supporters have been arrested by the thousands and hundreds of them have been sentenced to death after summary trials.

The nature of media censorship is apparent from the arrest of Egyptian journalists and even of journalists from international media organisations such as Al Jazeera, one of whose members has been released after 10 months on health grounds and three others are awaiting the verdict after nearly six months in jail. The world is waiting to find out if these are emergency measures or longer lasting edicts so familiar to autocracies.

Partly, future developments will depend upon the shape the ISIS takes in the weeks and months to come. There was a combination of circumstances that led to the stunning advance of its fighters in Iraq. The Iraqi Prime Minister, Mr Nouri al-Maliki, has run a Shia-dominated government, marginalising the Sunnis, some 25 per cent of the population. The disaffected Sunnis have joined up with the ISIS to fight the Maliki government as have the ex-Baathists of the Saddam Hussein era.

Mr Maliki is now seeking American military assistance, but has shown few signs of changing political course in accommodating Sunni and Kurdish interests, as demanded by President Obama. In these circumstances, Egypt's place at the top table seems some way away.