Harsh V. Pant
Tribal fighters shout slogans while holding weapons in Basra, southeast of Baghdad, on June 18. Reuters
THE Middle East is back and back with a bang. For some time now, the West, the US in particular, has lulled itself into believing that if only it would ignore the region, its problems would go away. After all, at a time of diminishing economic resources in the West, the Indo-Pacific with a rising China at the centre of its changing strategic landscape was the region that deserved greater attention. The strategically diffident Obama Administration embraced this thinking with great enthusiasm partly for sound economic reasons and partly because it saw no need for the US to get bogged down in the millennium-old Shia-Sunni feuds. America needed nation-building at home first, argued Obama, before it could turn to Yemen, Somalis or even Afghanistan. If at all, the Islamist extremists had to be fought, they could be fought from a distance using drones with help from local forces.
It was in this wider context that Obama was quick to accept total withdrawal from Iraq. Behind the façade of the US not getting legal immunity from the Iraqi government, the Obama Administration was quite happy to get out of Iraq and be publicly sanguine about Iraq's future prospects as a stable state. And now the same Iraqi government is asking the US for intervention - at the moment only air strikes have been mentioned. The Obama Administration is clutching the straws. There is confusion all around as to how Washington should respond to the growing crisis in Iraq. After indicating that air strikes would be undertaken by the US the Obama Administration quickly backed off, preferring instead to pursue strategies such as providing intelligence to the Iraqi military, addressing the country's political divisions and seeking support from regional allies. A hands-off approach is preferred by many in Washington as it is viewed as the Iraqi government’s job to fix it. The Maliki government is being pressed to take steps to make Shia-dominated government more inclusive and if it fails to do that, there are reports that Washington is working towards removing Maliki from office. Washington is also reaching out to Iran, trying to use Tehran's leverage over the Maliki government to make a political resolution of the Iraqi conflict more tenable. But contradictions abound in the larger policy and it remains to be seen if Obama's confused and rather late move to douse the Iraqi fire will have any real impact on the situation on the ground.
The entire Middle East is sitting on a powder keg with a burgeoning civil war in Libya, a once-in-a-generation humanitarian catastrophe in Syria and a ruthless Islamist group on the verge of gaining control over Iraq. Formed in 2013 and led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) has as its proclaimed aim the establishment of an Islamic emirate that straddles Syria and Iraq. The ISIS is a highly organised, motivated, resourceful and powerful group that wields violence without any compunction. It has been gaining ground steadily over the last few months — starting from the Syrian city of Raqqa, moving on to take control of the predominantly Sunni city of Fallujah by capitalising on the growing tensions between Iraq's Sunni minority and the Shia-led government of Nouri al-Maliki, and finally seizing control of Mosul earlier this month. Ungoverned territories are dangerous and if the ISIS succeeds in controlling territory from Syria to Iraq, it would draw Islamist extremists who could threaten Western interests much like what happened before September 11, 2001. If Iraq collapses, there could be a knock-on effect on the rest of the Middle East as well, given the artificiality of the entire region.The UK government has ruled out military intervention in support of the government of Nouri al-Maliki but has underscored that ignoring the threat from Islamist extremism in the Middle East will “come back to haunt the UK.” It has been estimated that around 400 British nationals are fighting alongside militant groups in Syria and the UK intelligence is now increasingly focused on the threat from jihadists returning from Syria and Iraq. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has also warned that the new extremists in Iraq include many home-grown radicals who will return to the UK once they are done in the Middle East.
India too finds itself embroiled in this crisis with the kidnapping of 40 Indian construction workers who remain “uncontactable” in Mosul. The workers, mostly from Punjab and other parts of northern India, were working on a construction project in Mosul in northern Iraq which has been captured by the ISIS. There are also concerns about the 46 Indian nurses stranded in the city of Tikrit. The Red Crescent has contacted the nurses and is providing assistance. They have agreed to continue to work there after fighters from the militant group, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), assured them they would be paid their salaries and dues. More than 10,000 Indians are estimated to be living in Iraq and if the state authority collapses completely in the country, it would be very difficult to protect them. India has sent a senior diplomat, Suresh Reddy, who was the Indian Ambassador to Iraq from 2011 till three months back, to manage the Indian mission in Baghdad amidst rapidly deteriorating ground realities. The Iraqi Foreign Ministry has informed Delhi that they have been able to determine the location of where the abducted Indian nationals are being held captive with workers of a few other nationalities. But it remains far from clear what can be done to help them to get evacuated as has been requested by their family members unless the militants are on board.
At a broader level, there will be an impact on oil prices. Oil prices immediately rose to a nine-month high after the jihadists seized Mosul, raising the prospect of a disruption in supply from the world's sixth-largest oil producer. As India is the world's fourth biggest importer of oil, it has been estimated that a rise of $10 per barrel in crude oil price would reduce India's growth rate by 0.5 percentage points. And if the oil price rally continues, then it would inevitably hit India's already serious fiscal and current account deficits.
The Modi government is facing its first major foreign policy challenge in Iraq. Even if can get Indian nationals back from Iraq safely, it will have to reformulate India's Middle East policy in light of far-reaching changes taking place in the region.
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2014/20140621/edit.htm#4
Tribal fighters shout slogans while holding weapons in Basra, southeast of Baghdad, on June 18. Reuters
THE Middle East is back and back with a bang. For some time now, the West, the US in particular, has lulled itself into believing that if only it would ignore the region, its problems would go away. After all, at a time of diminishing economic resources in the West, the Indo-Pacific with a rising China at the centre of its changing strategic landscape was the region that deserved greater attention. The strategically diffident Obama Administration embraced this thinking with great enthusiasm partly for sound economic reasons and partly because it saw no need for the US to get bogged down in the millennium-old Shia-Sunni feuds. America needed nation-building at home first, argued Obama, before it could turn to Yemen, Somalis or even Afghanistan. If at all, the Islamist extremists had to be fought, they could be fought from a distance using drones with help from local forces.
It was in this wider context that Obama was quick to accept total withdrawal from Iraq. Behind the façade of the US not getting legal immunity from the Iraqi government, the Obama Administration was quite happy to get out of Iraq and be publicly sanguine about Iraq's future prospects as a stable state. And now the same Iraqi government is asking the US for intervention - at the moment only air strikes have been mentioned. The Obama Administration is clutching the straws. There is confusion all around as to how Washington should respond to the growing crisis in Iraq. After indicating that air strikes would be undertaken by the US the Obama Administration quickly backed off, preferring instead to pursue strategies such as providing intelligence to the Iraqi military, addressing the country's political divisions and seeking support from regional allies. A hands-off approach is preferred by many in Washington as it is viewed as the Iraqi government’s job to fix it. The Maliki government is being pressed to take steps to make Shia-dominated government more inclusive and if it fails to do that, there are reports that Washington is working towards removing Maliki from office. Washington is also reaching out to Iran, trying to use Tehran's leverage over the Maliki government to make a political resolution of the Iraqi conflict more tenable. But contradictions abound in the larger policy and it remains to be seen if Obama's confused and rather late move to douse the Iraqi fire will have any real impact on the situation on the ground.
The entire Middle East is sitting on a powder keg with a burgeoning civil war in Libya, a once-in-a-generation humanitarian catastrophe in Syria and a ruthless Islamist group on the verge of gaining control over Iraq. Formed in 2013 and led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) has as its proclaimed aim the establishment of an Islamic emirate that straddles Syria and Iraq. The ISIS is a highly organised, motivated, resourceful and powerful group that wields violence without any compunction. It has been gaining ground steadily over the last few months — starting from the Syrian city of Raqqa, moving on to take control of the predominantly Sunni city of Fallujah by capitalising on the growing tensions between Iraq's Sunni minority and the Shia-led government of Nouri al-Maliki, and finally seizing control of Mosul earlier this month. Ungoverned territories are dangerous and if the ISIS succeeds in controlling territory from Syria to Iraq, it would draw Islamist extremists who could threaten Western interests much like what happened before September 11, 2001. If Iraq collapses, there could be a knock-on effect on the rest of the Middle East as well, given the artificiality of the entire region.The UK government has ruled out military intervention in support of the government of Nouri al-Maliki but has underscored that ignoring the threat from Islamist extremism in the Middle East will “come back to haunt the UK.” It has been estimated that around 400 British nationals are fighting alongside militant groups in Syria and the UK intelligence is now increasingly focused on the threat from jihadists returning from Syria and Iraq. Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has also warned that the new extremists in Iraq include many home-grown radicals who will return to the UK once they are done in the Middle East.
India too finds itself embroiled in this crisis with the kidnapping of 40 Indian construction workers who remain “uncontactable” in Mosul. The workers, mostly from Punjab and other parts of northern India, were working on a construction project in Mosul in northern Iraq which has been captured by the ISIS. There are also concerns about the 46 Indian nurses stranded in the city of Tikrit. The Red Crescent has contacted the nurses and is providing assistance. They have agreed to continue to work there after fighters from the militant group, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), assured them they would be paid their salaries and dues. More than 10,000 Indians are estimated to be living in Iraq and if the state authority collapses completely in the country, it would be very difficult to protect them. India has sent a senior diplomat, Suresh Reddy, who was the Indian Ambassador to Iraq from 2011 till three months back, to manage the Indian mission in Baghdad amidst rapidly deteriorating ground realities. The Iraqi Foreign Ministry has informed Delhi that they have been able to determine the location of where the abducted Indian nationals are being held captive with workers of a few other nationalities. But it remains far from clear what can be done to help them to get evacuated as has been requested by their family members unless the militants are on board.
At a broader level, there will be an impact on oil prices. Oil prices immediately rose to a nine-month high after the jihadists seized Mosul, raising the prospect of a disruption in supply from the world's sixth-largest oil producer. As India is the world's fourth biggest importer of oil, it has been estimated that a rise of $10 per barrel in crude oil price would reduce India's growth rate by 0.5 percentage points. And if the oil price rally continues, then it would inevitably hit India's already serious fiscal and current account deficits.
The Modi government is facing its first major foreign policy challenge in Iraq. Even if can get Indian nationals back from Iraq safely, it will have to reformulate India's Middle East policy in light of far-reaching changes taking place in the region.
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2014/20140621/edit.htm#4
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