By Dr Subhash Kapila
Jun-2014
In two weeks of India’s new Prime Minister Modi taking his oath, it seems that ‘All Roads Lead to New Delhi’ reinforcing the belief that in international relations, perceptions count, especially when a bold and decisive Prime Minister takes over.
Prime Minister Modi’s opening moves of inviting SAARC leaders of the Indian Sub-Continent for his swearing-in ceremony were bold and imaginative moves welcomed regionally and globally.
Prime Minister Modi’s credentials as being bold and audacious in outlook and his vision of pushing India into a fast paced trajectory towards a powerfully global role seemed to have spurred China in an unprecedented move to send its Foreign Minister as Special Envoy of the Chinese President to establish contact with PM Modi.
In a virtual back-to-back visit with the Chinese Foreign Minister’s visit the United States sent its Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia to New Delhi for discussions to kick-start the somewhat jaded US-India Strategic Partnership.
The Japanese Prime Minister had already announced in his Keynote Address that he was looking forward to PM Modis’ visit to Tokyo.
What does all this indicate? It is not that there is a new found love for India all of a sudden. Two major factors seem to be in play in determining these diplomatic moves towards India.
Perceptionaly, India ten years back, was already given a global recognition that India was on an ascendant powerful trajectory and would capitalise its national attributes of power and use the ensuing leverages to heave itself upwards. It did not so happen and the perception went around in global circles that presumably India had failed to grasp the opportunity due to political indecisiveness and dithering and demonstrating feeble responses to its security challenges and threats.
Perceptionaly, in 2014, it seems that the major global powers perceive once again and asses that India under PM Modi’s leadership would be in a position to get strategically back on the rails in terms of its foreign policy formulations and strategic vision and once again regain and commence its ascendant power trajectory.
In terms of India’s economic recovery and regaining fast economic growth the global perception in mid-2014 is that with a substantive political majority in Parliament on its own strength, the BJP Government under PM Modi’s leadership would jettison populist economic schemes which were debilitating the Indian economy and put India’s economy on the track for fast growth. PM Modi comes to office with an impressive record of converting Gujarat into the leading Indian state in terms of economic growths.
PM Modi seems to be well aware that India’s trajectory towards emerging as a powerful global player depends on two crucial determinants of national security and military power and economic strengths and economic power. Economic power would be able to fuel the long-neglected combat-power edge of the Indian Armed Forces, defence infrastructure along our borders and defence modernisation and upgradation. It is potent military power that can only add to an Indian muscular foreign policy. The old adage holds good that foreign policy and diplomacy without muscular strength to back it up is no good and muscular foreign policy without good and imaginative diplomacy is equally worthless.
In light of the above factors, a brief peek at PM Modi’s unfolding foreign policy moves would reinforce that the new Prime Minister is aware of the above imperatives.
Let us begin with China which is India’s most potent long-term threat to India’s security with its powerful military capabilities sustained by a powerful and strong economy. Even before he became the BJP prime-ministerial candidate Modi as Chief Minister of Gujarat had visited China a number of times to size up its economic processes and why it was the recipient of vast FDIs.
While India may frown at too fast an opening upto China, PM Modi believes that China could be an attractive source of FDI in India’s infrastructural projects which are not defence-sensitive. However, one can presume that alongside economic openings to China there would not be any complacency in building up India’s conventional and nuclear deterrence. The efforts in this direction are already underway.
From China’s view, it makes sense to prevent PM Modi diplomatic and strategic cosying-up to Japan and the United States as this could upset the Asian balance-of power. Hence China’s unprecedented move of sending its Foreign Minister to New Delhi.
Moving to the United States, the American assessment is that Indian markets are a lucrative destination for American investments and that PM Modi’s economic policies would be more vibrant than the previous government. In terms of strategic cooperation it would be too early for the United States to pre-judge that India under PM Modi would make a strong swerve to the United States side.
Surprisingly therefore is that a US-India strategic dialogue is the first item on the official agenda before PM Modi’s visit to Washington in September. One would have expected it to be the other way around.
Japan is expected to receive India’s priority attention in India’s policy making under PM Modi. This is for a host of very sound strategic and economic reasons besides the long ties of mutual friendship.
Economically, Japan is a potential source of large doses of FDI as well as ODA and India would do well to tap these resources as both PM Abe and PM Modi enjoy a good personal chemistry.
Strategically Japan and India as benign emerging Asian Powers have no history of conflict but enjoy a vast array of strategic convergences in terms of Asian security and stability.
It is in the fitness of the factors stated above that PM Modi’s first substantive visit outside the Indian Sub-Continent is to Japan even before the Chinese President comes visiting or before PM Modi meets US President in Washington.
The missing actor on the scene is Russia. One has not seen any comparable diplomatic initiatives by Russia post-Modi’s swearing-in as India’s new Prime Minister. One hopes that it is not based on a flawed Russian assessment that India may now once again tilt towards the United States in terms of priority strategic relationships.
PM Modi should also look at Europe and in particular France which like India values strategic autonomy in its foreign policy conduct besides being a long-term supplier of weapons and equipment to India.
It would be in keeping with PM Modi’s functional style to run a personalised foreign policy conduct through his Prime Minister’s Office. One would not agree that the Prime Minister would need a Foreign Policy Adviser from the Indian Foreign Service. This would make the PMO top-heavy in policy making besides creating avoidable friction with the National Security Adviser. Foreign policy should not be the closed preserve of career diplomats. In fact United States greatest foreign policy successes were notched up by non-diplomats.
Conduct of foreign policy requires an imaginative flair, vision and inter-personal skills which the new Indian Prime Minister has in plenty embedded in his personality. As far as foreign policy advisories are concerned the institutional structure of the Ministry of External Affairs should suffice. Neither there is a requirement of the system of Special Envoys as was being followed previously.
Concluding, one fervently hopes that India’s foreign policy under PM Modi would bear his personal stamp of dynamism, boldness in decision-making, robustness and above all the strategic vision that would enable India to capitalise and use as leverages the global recognition being bestowed on India’s potential power.
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