It has provided India an opportunity to reassert its primacy
G Parthasarathy
Given Pakistan's stated concerns about the Indian involvement in Afghanistan, New Delhi should propose a regular trilateral India-Pakistan-Afghanistan dialogue
THE presence of the leaders of India's South Asian neighbours and Mauritius at the swearing-in of Mr. Narendra Modi as India’s Prime Minister was a landmark event in South Asia’s quest for regional amity and cooperation. It provided an opportunity for India to reassert its primacy in the region, despite its economic downturn and eroding influence in the face of significant Chinese inroads. In the absence of Sheikh Hasina, the stage was dominated by Mr. Modi's meetings with Presidents Hamid Karzai and Rajapakse and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Nepal would do so much better in Indian perceptions if it set its domestic politics in order and adopted, like Bhutan, an enlightened approach to mutually beneficial energy cooperation.
The meetings of the new Prime Minister were set rolling with his interaction with the charismatic and outgoing Afghan President Hamid Karzai. The two leaders had spoken earlier, when Lashkar e Taiba terrorists laid siege to our consulate in Herat. This was the eighth attack on Indian missions and mission personnel in Afghanistan, which have included three attacks each in Kabul and Jalalabad and one each in Kandahar and Herat. All these attacks have been executed by terrorists from the Taliban, Haqqani Network or Lashkar e Taiba with clear evidence in at least three cases of ISI involvement.
With President Obama having set a firm schedule for a total withdrawal of the American combat forces from Afghanistan by the end of 2016, the stage is now set for new dynamics to developments in Afghanistan. The Pakistan military establishment will now put strategies in place for progressive takeover of the Afghanistan by its Taliban and Haqqani proxies. India's predominantly economic role in Afghanistan will accordingly have to be augmented by imaginative regional diplomacy involving Iran, Afghanistan's Central Asian neighbours, China and Russia. At the same time, the US, its NATO allies and Japan have to be approached to keep funds flowing for Afghanistan’s national security and economic development.
While in Delhi, President Karzai again alluded to his disappointment at India's response to his requests for military assistance. This can be remedied, in consultation with Russia, given the huge surpluses we have in Soviet-era equipment ranging from tanks to fighter aircraft. Given Pakistan's stated concerns about the Indian involvement in Afghanistan, New Delhi should propose a regular trilateral India-Pakistan-Afghanistan dialogue. A mere India-Pakistan dialogue on this issue would be like staging Hamlet without the King of Denmark! Strategically, an effective India-Iran-Afghanistan dialogue is also essential, for the development of Iran's Chah Bahar port providing India guaranteed and easy access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif showed statesmanship in overcoming domestic opposition from the army and others by attending Mr. Modi’s inauguration. He, more than others in Pakistan, recognises the perilous state of Pakistan’s economy and the role of protégés of the ISI in promoting religious extremism and sectarian violence within Pakistan. At the same time, his effectiveness to deal with terrorism by acting against his protégés like Lashkar e Taiba and the sectarian protégés of his Muslim League Party like Lashkar e Jhangvi and Sipah e Sahiba is inherently limited. While Sharif was in Delhi, he told a senior Indian journalist privately that while he would not insist on continuation of the composite dialogue process, he would be agreeable to a high-level back-channel dialogue on Jammu and Kashmir and terrorism. Interestingly, by harking back to the Lahore Declaration of February 1999, Sharif has given the clear impression that he will be unwilling to reiterate President Musharraf’s assurance of January 2004 that “territory under Pakistan's control” will not be used for terrorism against India. Does Mr. Sharif still intend to use terrorism as an instrument of state policy till the issue of J&K is settled to the satisfaction of his government and his country’s insubordinate military establishment?
The new government will also have to take a view on how it is going to act on the framework for a settlement on Jammu and Kashmir reached in 2007 through “back-channel negotiations” between the Special Envoys of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Musharraf. Discussions on the framework were resumed last year in Dubai. This negotiated framework was largely based on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s speech in Amritsar on March 24, 2006, averring that while borders cannot be redrawn, we can work towards making them “irrelevant,” or “just lines on a map”. He had also stated that people on both sides of the LoC could then move freely across the Line and cross-LoC economic cooperation and trade could be promoted. All this was premised on respect for the “sanctity” of the Line of Control, as Mr. Sharif had solemnly assured President Clinton on July 4, 1999. Implementation of the framework on J &K agreed to in back-channel talks is said to have required no legislative or Constitution amendment. With the Himalayan snow melting, it remains to be seen whether the Pakistan army adheres to Mr. Sharif's pledge on July 4, 1999, to respect the “sanctity” of the Line of Control.
During his discussions in New Delhi, President Rajapakse was told that India expected him to abide by the assurances he had given of moving beyond the 13th amendment in the devolution of powers to the provincial government in Jaffna. Sadly, Colombo has not done itself a service by continuing the suffocating army presence in the northern province and by curbing and undermining the powers and authority of Chief Minister Wigneswaran. India has allocated an estimated Rs 8,000 crore for relief and rehabilitation of Tamils in Sri Lanka. This crucial programme cannot be implemented effectively unless maturity and restraint are observed by all concerned in dealing with the democratically elected government in Sri Lanka, by eschewing rhetoric, whipped up by Sri Lankan Tamil expatriates. One cannot but recall the positive role played by former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MGR in striking a delicate balance between local political imperatives and larger national interests.
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