Israel is rightly strengthening ties with the East, but it must first ensure ties with the West are rock solid
The year is 2020. Tensions in the Middle East are rising as the Islamic (Sunni) Federation of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon reach agreement with the Islamic (Shiite) Republic of Iran to punish any country which rejects their ultimatum: Cut off diplomatic relations with Israel for its decision to annex most of the West Bank - or face the threat of a Middle East oil embargo.
In Beijing, the president of the People’s Republic of China convenes the top echelon of the Communist Party and a clear consensus is reached: China’s national security and economic interests leave Beijing no choice but to suspend relations with Israel.
After all, China receives most of its energy supplies from the Persian Gulf and the Greater Middle East. “Look at the map, comrade president, and note the number of Arab and Muslim countries,” advises the Chinese defense minister. “We need their support in the global competition with the United States.” And he adds: “You cannot even find Israel on the map.”
None of the Chinese leaders recall the Jewish Holocaust or argue that China has a moral and historical obligation to support the Jewish State established in the Holy Land. Indeed, the Chinese refer to World War II as the Asia-Pacific War and know more about the Nanking Massacre than about the gas chambers of Auschwitz. They can quote from the Four Books and Five Classics of Confucianism but not from the Old or New Testament.
Israelis who are irritated by the growing criticism of their government in the West, and dream of establishing new strategic alliances with China, India and other Asian powers as part of a re-orientation of Israel’s foreign policy, should consider the not-so-far-fetched scenario above.
There is no doubt that Israel’s relationship with its Western allies -- going back to Great Britain and its Balfour Declaration, through Western support for the establishment of Israel and the huge military and economic assistance it has received from these countries -- was based in part on hard-core strategic interests. These included containing Soviet influence and Arab radicalism in the Middle East during the Cold War and its aftermath.
But it was a sense of history, religious beliefs and moral commitment – not to mention personal ties with Jews – that led successive US presidents and West European leaders to reject pressure from their pro-Arab defense and foreign ministries, as well as oil companies, to sacrifice ties with Israel for their countries’ interests in the Middle East.
In a recent op-ed (“Why Israel is shifting Eastward”) in the daily Haaretz, former Israeli defense minister Moshe Arens argued that unlike European nations, the Chinese, Indians and Japanese don’t carry the baggage of anti-Semitism that supposedly affects the attitudes of, say, France, towards Israel.
But Arens overlooked an important point: Anti-Semitism and Philo-Semitism are two sides of the same coin - the complex relationship between the West and the Jews which explains why Israel continues to top foreign policy agendas in Western capitals.
And does Arens really think that Germany, Britain, or France, or for that matter the United States, Canada and Australia, would be maintaining such close ties with a small and isolated state of eight million Hebrew speakers, were it not for the legacy of the Jewish-Christian relationship, and the fact that Israel is a thriving Western society based on liberal-democratic foundations?
If anything, it is the changing demographics and cultural makeup of these countries, with the arrival of immigrants from non-Western parts of the world, that could lead to the weakening of their ties with the Jewish State. This explains why Israel needs to diversify its diplomatic portfolio through growing links to the Pacific Rim region, which is expected to emerge as a powerful geopolitical center in the coming years.
Israel’s powerful military and its advanced economy should help it expand its diplomatic and economic presence in Asia. Ironically, one of the reasons these countries want to strengthen ties with Israel is the Jewish State’s support of, and influence on Western capitals.
But China, India and other Asian governments will be driven first and foremost by their interests, especially the reliance of their growing economies on foreign energy. That is why, despite its close ties with Washington, India resisted pressure to impose sanctions on Iran, an important oil supplier.
While Israel could find itself drawn into closer ties with some of these countries, it shouldn’t assume that they will resemble the long-term alliances that it has with the West. Israel’s complicated relationship with Turkey demonstrates that when interests change, policies follow, very quickly -- unless they are based on shared histories and values. From that perspective, while trying to shift Eastward, Israel needs to ensure that its base of support in the West remains as solid as ever.
Leon Hadar is a senior analyst with Wikstrat, a geo-strategic consulting firm, and teaches international relations at the University of Maryland, College Park.
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