Al-Qaeda’s media arm, Al-Sahab released a video clip on 13 June 2014 urging the Kashmiri Muslims to emulate the militant actions of insurgents fighting in Iraq and Syria and launch an uprising against the Indian Authorities. The video features Maulana Asim Umar, a Pakistan based Al-Qaeda propagandist who is seen conveying the message for establishment of Islamic caliphate in Kashmir. Though the video message seems to be a clear ploy on the part of ISI in trying to deflect the unwanted attention from internal security situation within Pakistan and give impetus to waning insurgency in Kashmir, the purported message must be analysed with the prevailing security situation in the region which is in a fluid and transitional stage. The coalition forces are planning to withdraw from Afghanistan by the year end which provides an opportunity to the Afghan Taliban to increase its sphere of influence. Pakistan Army today is facing a greater threat, both from within the country from TTP and its umbrella organisations and in its strategic retreat backyard, Afghanistan, where its unquestioned patronage has at times been undermined in Afghanistan. The third component of the insurgent outfits are the terror organisations of the Punjabi Taliban, Lashker-e-Taiba (LeT), Lashker-e-Jhanghvi and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) who enjoy the patronage of the Pakistan Army, the ISI and the political establishment and have been creating disturbances in Kashmir in the past.
The planned drawdown by the end of the year in Afghanistan will leave approximately 10,000 US soldiers, who are likely to be employed in training of Afghan National Army (ANA) and maybe carryout specialised surgical operations. With a reduced strength, they would not have mentionable capability to conduct large scale operations. This would leave the field open for Taliban and Northern alliance forces. Utilising the safe heavens of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Waziristan, the Afghan Taliban would utilise the drawdown to concentrate on expanding and consolidating its footprint within Afghanistan. Even with a reduced strength of the US forces, it is unlikely to achieve success of the scale of 1990s due to an improving ANA and lack of local population support. Given the constraints, it would not be in any position to support operations in Kashmir.
The second terror component is the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Pakistan today faces unprecedented internal security turmoil due to TTP. The latest brazen attack on the Karachi Airport shows its determination as well as audacity to challenge the might of the Pakistani security forces including its army. The very fact that the TTP elements were able to enter the airport complex with relative ease indicates the support of sympathizers within the security forces assisting their cause of ruling Pakistan under the Sharia law. TTP has its aim enunciated in establishing an Islamic caliphate in Pakistan and would employ all its cadres and resources to effectively challenge the writ of the government. Thus, even TTP would not be interested in escalating insurgency in Kashmir at the cost of its anti army operations within Pakistan. Given the present inter security strife, the Pakistani army will be deeply embroiled in counter insurgency operations in the coming years against the TTP elements as well as Afghan Taliban should they continue to inhibit the lawless areas along the Afghan border. It’s one time strategic assets will definitely cause more harm to its professional prowess as well as credibility if the army fails to act in a coordinated and timely manner. The Pakistan Army’s present state counter insurgency operations are unlikely to weaken the TTP as aerial bombings or artillery fires rarely annihilate insurgent cadres in large numbers. The collateral damage will only strengthen the TTP and other outfits. The only viable option would be to conduct counter insurgency operations with adequate boots on the ground and a mindset shift to tackle the TTP. Though Pakistan Army has recently acknowledged that home grown terror organisations are a greater threat than India, it’s obsession with India centric operations may lead to a state of near anarchy if focused and coordinated operations are not undertaken against TTP.
The only viable terror threat arises from elements of Punjabi Taliban under the tutelage of ISI which can dent the prevailing peaceful state within Kashmir. With trained cadres of JeH, LeT etc present in terrorist camps in POK and Pakistan Punjab and waiting for an opportunity to sneak into India, the coming months especially the winter period will present a challenge to the security forces along the line of control. The plausible intention of the ISI in coordinating efforts of the Punjabi Taliban and acting as a link with al-Qaeda seems to be to create an atmosphere of uncertainty to revive the dying insurgent movement in Kashmir. Its past actions at reviving the insurgent movement have been successfully stymied by resolute political will and coordinated operations by Indian Army. It’s only a matter of time before its present misadventure meets the same fate. Nevertheless, vigilant action at line of control will have to continue to thwart any attempts at pushing the insurgents across the fence. Also, the Pakistan Army should realise that given the new political establishment in New Delhi, any such impulsive action under the garb of non state actors will lead to a befitting reply and a greater dent to its image and credibility, which is already under scrutiny within Pakistan.
The Author is a Senior Fellow at CLAWS. Views expressed are personal.
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