10 May 2014
A major challenge before the incumbent government and key election and security institutions of the country is to sustain people’s engagement in the extended democratic process
On April 26, the Independent Election Commission (IEC) of Afghanistan announced the preliminary results of the April 5 presidential election, indicating a possible run-off between the two leading contenders — Dr Abdullah and Dr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai. The final results, however, are expected to be declared by IEC on May 14 with June 7 as the tentative date for the run-off vote. Meanwhile, as Afghanistan struggles to cope with a huge natural disaster in its north-eastern Badakhshan Province, where thousands of people are believed to have perished in the landslide, the Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC) in Kabul is racing against time to sift through hundreds of electoral fraud complaints it has received from various parts of the country, including from the presidential candidates.
According to the election commission, of the total 121 complaints filed by the presidential candidates, 115 were filed by Abdullah, four by Ashraf Ghani, one by Zalmai Rassoul and one by Daoud Sultanzoy. The role of both IEC and IECC, which until a few weeks ago had come in for praise for their stellar role in ensuring a relatively smooth and fair conduct of April 5 elections compared to the 2009 elections, is increasingly coming under criticism as anxiety over the final political outcome of the whole exercise builds up. Whether there will be a run-off or a coalition will be formed to avert the same? Will the transition of power to what is supposed to be the first post-ISAF and post-Karzai government in Kabul is going to be a smooth or messy affair? How stable or fragile would be the next government?
Both Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, the two leading contenders, have expressed their scepticism over lack of transparency in the functioning of the two key electoral institutions of the country. All eyes are now on each and every move that Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani are making, including the potential role of the incumbent president, Hamid Karzai, in the formation of the next government. Interestingly, aware of Karzai’s long-standing influence among country’s various political networks, both Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani have openly expressed their willingness to continue to engage Karzai.
Veteran versus Newcomer
Though both Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani are technocrats by qualification, one an ophthalmologist and another an anthropologist, but they are wide apart in terms of their political profile and experience within the Afghan setting. Abdullah is a veteran political figure with a long past stretching over two decades in the tumultuous politics of the country. Abdullah, a key figure from the former United Front and a close aide of former guerrilla commander, Ahmed Shah Massoud, who until his assassination led the Afghan resistance against the Pakistan-backed Taliban regime, was also the foreign minister in the Karzai-led interim and transitional governments. On the other hand, Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank executive, emerged on the political scene after 2001 when he was appointed as finance minister by President Karzai in his transitional government in 2002 and later took over as chairman of the Afghan transition commission in 2011. However, both Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani were candidates in the August 2009 presidential election as well. Abdullah had secured second position and Ashraf Ghani was on fourth position when final results were declared.
As per the preliminary results, Abdullah has thus far secured 44.94 per cent of the total votes counted, a comfortable lead over Ashraf Ghani, who has secured 31.47 per cent, with Zalmai Rassoul, former national security adviser and foreign minister, at a distant third position with 11.48 per cent votes. It is stated that even after taking into account cases of fraudulent voting which are still being investigated and scrutinised, Abdullah is unlikely to reach the 50 per cent plus mark required to win the elections. However, as per the preliminary results, of the 34 provinces in the country, Abdullah is leading in 20 and Ashraf Ghani in 13 with Zalmai Rassoul leading in one province. Abdullah is the second leading candidate in six and third leading in five provinces, while Ashraf Ghani is the second leading candidate in 10 and third leading in six provinces. As of now, Ashraf Ghani has openly refused to form a coalition with Abdullah and has instead expressed his willingness to go for the run-off. Most of the remaining six presidential candidates, some of whom could be playing a critical role in case of a run-off, are likely to express their support either for Abdullah or Ashraf Ghani. Presently, Gul Agha Sherzai, former governor of eastern Nangarhar and southern Kandahar Province, is the only other presidential candidate to have declared his support for Abdullah. More are likely to follow after final results are declared.
Breaking ethnic frontiers
An interesting aspect of the April 2014 presidential election is the role and profile of vice presidential co-nominees of some of the leading presidential candidates. Each presidential candidate is supposed to have two vice presidential nominees which often pave way for cross-ethnic factional alliances. The idea clearly is to overcome the limits defined by the old social and ethnic divides that have polarised the Afghan polity.
It is noteworthy that this time all eight presidential candidates in the fray happen to be Pashtuns, including Abdullah who is part Pashtun and part Tajik though he is more closely identified with the Tajiks given his earlier association with former Jamiat commander, Ahmed Shah Massoud. By nominating powerful regional or factional leaders from diverse social and political background as their vice presidential candidates, presidential candidates have sought to expand their support base among other ethnic groups. The inevitability of networking with sub-national power structures to be able to later extend their influence to the provinces once the government is formed, further dictates the choice of vice presidential candidates. In fact, in this election, some of the leading presidential candidatures often are a kind of mini-coalition unto themselves when one takes into account the socially and politically influential background of the vice presidential co-nominees.
Abdullah, who has so far secured the highest number of votes, has a veteran Hazara leader from Hezbe Wahdat, Mohammad Mohaqiq, and former member of the political wing of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s predominantly Pashtun Hezb-e Islami, Mohammad Khan, as his vice-presidential compatriots. Similarly, Ashraf Ghani, the second leading candidate, has powerful Uzbek commander from Jowzjan, Abdul Rashid Dostum, and a Hazara and former justice minister, Sarwar Danish, as his vice presidential candidates.
In case of Abdullah, his alliance with Hazara leader Mohaqiq has certainly helped him in further strengthening his support among the Hazara people. This is evident from the fact that he is the leading candidate in the predominantly Hazara provinces of Bamyan and Daikondi in central Afghanistan. Similarly, Ashraf Ghani’s alliance with Dostum made him the leading candidate in the predominantly Uzbek northern province of Jowzjan and the second leading candidate in Samangan Province. In fact, their respective vice presidential nominees could be seen as major power brokers whether it is about avoiding a possible run-off or negotiating for a political coalition after the run-off. It also reflects on the changing social and political landscape of Afghanistan whereby Pashtun candidates are vying for support from among the non-Pashtuns. The Hazaras, which until a decade ago had a marginal role in the national politics, are now playing a significant role in shaping the next government. In case of a run-off, the Pashtun tribal dynamics might play out in an unpredictable manner though old commanders and leaders from central and northern Afghanistan would continue to exercise significant influence at a more operational level.
Run up to run-off
As presidential election appears to be heading for a run-off, the attention is likely to shift to provinces which are more ethnically mixed or diverse and provinces with substantive Pashtun population. In the run-off scenario, for both Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani, the role of some of the other presidential candidates particularly Zalmai Rassoul and Gul Agha Sherzai could be pivotal in garnering greater Pashtun support. Though Rassoul ended at a distant third position in the presidential race, it is important to note that he has secured the highest number of votes in the politically and strategically significant southern Kandahar Province, and is the second leading candidate in Paktika, Zabul and Helmand which too have substantive Pashtun population. Similarly, Sherzai, though he ended at the sixth position in the presidential race and has already extended his support to Abdullah, had secured the second largest number of votes in the Kandahar Province.
The support of two other presidential candidates, Qutbuddin Hilal and Abdul Rab Rasoul Sayyaf, could be significant in terms of making a psychological impact on the voters during the run-off. Hilal, who ended at fifth position in the presidential race, has the backing of Hekmatyar’s Hezb-e Islami; and Sayyaf, who has garnered fourth position in the presidential race, is a veteran Islamist leader and the most prominent among the few Pashtun commanders from the former United Front. Sayyaf has assiduously projected himself as an ideological counterweight to the Taliban in the run up to the presidential election.
President Karzai’s role in the presidential election has been a subject of both speculation and criticism. His role in convincing certain candidates, including his brother Qayyum Karzai, to back off from the presidential race in favour of Zalmai Rassoul, and narrow down the contest to fewer candidates, could not have been ignored. Perhaps, Karzai’s biggest political legacy could be successful transfer of power to a sustainable political coalition whether under Abdullah or Ashraf Ghani in the months to follow. Though the Constitution might have barred him from seeking a third consecutive term, it certainly does not bar him from contesting the next presidential election in 2019.
Time and again he might have expressed his neutrality in the election process, but as an incumbent president Karzai remains well positioned for necessary political mediation in case of a Constitutional crisis.
Meanwhile, President Karzai has reportedly met both Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani twice since the announcement of the preliminary results. Given his vast political experience in balancing divergent political interests of various groups and the master strategist he is, Karzai might turn out to be a lead protagonist in shaping the politics beyond 2014.
The April presidential election is just the beginning of a long drawn process which is supposed to conclude with the parliamentary elections next year. As of now, a major challenge before the incumbent government and the key election and security institutions of the country is to sustain the people’s engagement in the extended democratic process.
(Vishal Chandra is Associate Fellow, specialising on Afghan affairs at IDSA.
Views expressed are personal)
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