Paper No. 5694 Dated 1-May-2014
By Dr. Subhash Kapila
The South China Sea and the East China Sea in the Western Pacific no longer stand confined to China’s maritime territorial sovereignty disputes between China and its neighbours but have emerged as the arena of a major power struggle between China and the United States for the mastery of the Western Pacific and in mid-2014 the sounds of distant war drums are discernible.
China right from the last decade has been boxing much above its true strategic weight by kind courtesy of United States permissiveness and resorted to unrestrained and wanton conflict- escalation in both the South China Sea and the East China Sea against Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan. China not having been checkmated in military occupation of islands belonging to Vietnam and the Philippines upped the ante in the East China Sea against Japan. One had seen this coming and reflected the same in one of my Papers of that time.
Right from early 2000s after the Hainan Island incident in which China had shot down a US plane, one had persistently reflected in my Papers two distinct strategic developments. The first one was that China was intent on initiating a new Cold War in the Pacific with the United States and the second strategic prediction was that armed conflict between China and the United States was inevitable with China intent on prompting an United States exit from the Pacific and the United States determined to stay embedded in the Asia Pacific.
The Cold War between China and the United States is already on undoubtedly despite the rhetoric to the contrary that flows out from Beijing and Washington. The explosive mix of military aggression and conflict escalation that China has inflicted in both the South China Sea and the East China Sea coupled with China’s fast-tracked naval build-up and the United States Strategic Pivot to Asia Pacific in response, are inexorably leading to a situation where one can hear the sounds of distant war drums, however much the United State wishes to avoid a war with China.
China is already in conflict with its neighbours both on its land borders and also on its maritime borders. So far, China too was shying away from any possible conflict with the United States because of its asymmetries of military power in relation to the United States. But lately China has started exhibiting strategic and military arrogance buoyed up by two factors. The first factor relates to its exponential accretion of military power especially naval and air-power which prompts China to perceive that the margins of its asymmetries with the United States stand greatly narrowed and brinkmanship to the extreme can be resorted to. The second factor is a Chinese gross misreading of United States will to use power to tame China in light of United States unremitting appeasement of China emanating not from US fears of taking on China but as a spillover of flawed US policy postulations on Russia.
Things are changing now as the United States finally perceives that China is strategically pushing the United States into a corner and thereby affecting the United States status and credibility in Asian capitals because of the growing perception in Asian Capitals that the United States is not intent on checkmating an increasingly militarily adventurist China and in the process unable to honour its security guarantees to its Pacific Allies.
The prime focus of President Obama’s recent visit in April 2014 was to reassure its Pacific Allies that the United States is determined to put three major steps in operation (1) Offer renewed pledges to the security of its Pacific Allies (2) Assist in the military capacity building of its Pacific Allies to withstand Chinese aggression in the disputed waters of the South China Sea and East China Sea and (3) Rebalance and reinforce the US Strategic Pivot to Asia to cater for any contingency of being drawn into a conflict with China.
In this overall direction two strategic developments are clearly visible as President Obama made his even day tour of Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines. Of these four nations, the Philippines and Japan are facing serious military threats from China in the South China Sea and East China Sea respectively. The Philippines stand already subjected to Chinese military aggression and face further aggression from China. Japan has been subjected to military and political coercion by China over the Senkaku Islands. Reports also abound that China has plans to undertake a swift military occupation of the Senkaku Islands.
Two major developments that have occurred during President Obama’s recent visit and which have strategic significance in relation to the China Threat to Japan and the Philippines were as follows (1) United States strategic pledge to Japan that United States commitment to Japan’s security is “absolute” and that includes the Senkaku Islands (2) United States signing a 10-year “ Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement” with the Philippines which is over and above the existing mutual security treaty in existence. Under this EDCA enhanced levels of US Forces and moreso air and naval forces would be rotating through and exercising in the Philippines on a continuous basis.
While the United States would not wish to get bogged down in China-containment rhetoric it is implicit in these two significant strategic developments would refrain China henceforth from charging wildly in the South China and the East China Sea and not be checkmated. In this connection President Obama’s statement in Manila makes sense and he said “Our goal is not to counter China. Our goal is not to contain China. Our goal is to make sure international rules and norms are respected and that includes international disputes”.
Coincident with thee security pledges and agreements with its Pacific Allies, reports emanated from the United States that US Armed Forces have worked out options for a US military response to any future Chinese military provocations in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Such military options would be aimed at forcing China to roll-back from any of its military misadventures. This process seems to have been hastened after China’s recent unilateral ADIZ declaration in the affected region of East China Sea. Reports also suggest that US officials on visits to Beijing have advised that China should refrain from declaration of an ADIZ in the South China Sea.
Concluding, one is prompted to ask the question as what does all of the above portend? In my assessment it portends that the sound of distant war drums may get shriller if China does not blink first because perceptively the United States perceives that it has been pushed into a corner strategically in the Asia Pacific and East Asia more pointedly.
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