May 20, 2014 · by Fortuna's Corner
Internet Of Things 2020: A Glimpse Into The Future
Last month, April 30, 2014, a thought-provoking conference called: “Internet of Things 2020: A Glimpse Into The Future,” was hosted by the global strategic planning and knowledge company — A.T. Kearney. The conference was part of what’s known as The Silicon Valley Thought Leaders Series. A.T. Kearney Partner’s Alex Blantner and Mark Holman presented a briefing which is attached that looked out into the end of this decade and made some educated guesses as to how the Internet of Things (IoT) might play out.
“Everyone seems to be talking about it,’ the two Kearney Partners noted; but, they posed the question — “exactly what is it?,” — the Internet of Things (IoT). To their surprise, the conference attendees — that included the who’s who of the Internet/Social Media landscape — submitted 20 different/unique definitions of what they thought the IoT actually is. Mr. Blantner and Mr. Holman defined the IoT as a : seamless combination of embedded intelligence; ubiquitous connectivity; and, deep analytical analysis — put together in a very disruptive and value-generating way.
“Regardless of the sphere,” the to Kearney Partners note that “the key feature of the IoT — is the full cycle from the physical world of things through the digital one — and back to the physical.” This is the “first time ever,” they contend, “that such a closed loop can be implemented, on such a vast scale, across so many areas, and with such enormous potential.”
“By 2020,” A.T. Kearney says, there will be a staggering “30B mobile devices connected to the Internet (20X higher than today), by some 7.7B people; and, an average of 3.5 mobile devices per person by the end of this decade.” “How about Silicon Valley?” they ask. Kearney projects an average of 250 mobile devices — per family in Silicon Valley by 2020, and more than 200M mobile devices in an area less than 30 miles in diameter.” By 2020 they contend, the IoT “will impact close to six percent of all global commerce (total world GDP of $100T) — some $3.5T in revenue; an increase of $177B in value per customer and, an increase in productivity equaling $1.9T or more.
Mr. Blantner and Mr. Holman contend that “close to two-thirds of all incremental revenues will accrue in the business-to-business (BTB) sector, with the remainder split between the business-to-consumer and the public sector at a 3:1 ratio.” At present, they note that there is some $1.1B of venture capital investment going into the IoT; and, investment in this domain is growing at a 46 percent yearly increase versus a 7 percent yearly increase in all venture capital investment.”
“All this is very exciting,” they say, “but, how long will it actually take for the IoT to actually live up to its expectations?” “We believe, and most experts in the industry agree, that we are in the early stages of the IoT lifecycle. At the moment, there is more buzz than there is real value…yet. That said, significant money and attention is being put into/devoted to this space and inevitably, they will start producing results.” They expect the IoT ” uptake to accelerate in a couple of years and take six to eight additional years to truly deliver the value we expect from it.” But, Mr. Blantner and Mr. Holman said some internet technologists think the IoT could get here within the next two to three years.
What Will The Future Look Like
Mr. Blantner and Mr. Holman took an educated guess in what the IoT will look like 2020; and, what it may mean to us on a personal level. They forecast that:
— Digital identity for every human, creature, and object…and a home page. Everyone and everything is traceable and trackable; technology is pervasive but, invisible;
— Most everything is direct — intermediaries are gone; most everything is real-time, — information, decisions, actions. Predictive, with an ecosystem that anticipates and responds to the environment;
— Objects will communicate with each other — without humans, and act independently. Distributed intelligence enables self-sufficiency; experiences are personalized;
— Analog and digital world merge, with seamless experiences across both. Everything can access everything else remotely. Sharing becomes the predominant mode of use.
There Are Always Unintended Consequences
Sounds interesting, fascinating and promising. But, as with everything, there is also a potential dark-side to eventually realizing an IoT. Klint Finley had an online article on the Wired.com website wit the title, “Why Tech’s Best Minds Are Very Worried About The Internet of Things.”
According to a new Pew Research Poll, some of techs brightest minds are expressing doubts about the potential impact of the IoT on everything from security and privacy, to human dignity and social inequality. “The 1,606 respondents said they saw many potential benefits to the IoT,” according to Mr. Finley. “New voice-and gesture-based interfaces could make computer use easier. Medical devices and health-monitoring services could help treat and prevent diseases. Environmental sectors could detect pollution,” notes Mr. Finley. Salesforce.com’s Chief Scientist JP Rangaswami said that improved logistics and planning systems could reduce waste.
“But, most of the experts warned of the downsides as well,” noted Mr. Finley. “Security was one of the most immediate concerns. “Most of the devices exposed on the Internet will be vulnerable,” wrote Jerry Michalski, founder of the think-tank REX. “They will also be prone to unintended consequences: they will do things nobody designed beforehand, most of which will be undesirable.”
“Beyond the security concerns,” writes Mr. Finley, “there’s the threat of building a world that may be too complex for our own good. If you think error messages and applications crashes are a problem now, just wait till the web is embedded in everything from your car to your sneakers. Like the VCR that forever blinks 12:00, many of the technologies we build into the devices of the future may never be used properly.” “We live in a world where many things won’t work, and nobody will know how to fix them,” wrote Howard Rheingold, critic, writer and teacher specializing in the social, cultural, and political implications of communications such as the Internet, Social Media, etc.
“The complexity of the IoT, could also leave many behind. Developing nations-precisely the ones that could most benefit from the IoTs environmental benefits — will be least able to afford them,” said Michael Alcaine, and International Telecommunication Union area representative for Central America. Lee Raine, Pew Research Director for the Internet and American Life Project, “pointed out that the IoT could lead to a much larger digital divide, one in which those who cannot; or, choose not to participate — are shut out entirely from many daily devices.”
“Meanwhile, those who do partake in the IoT — may find it dehumanizing, especially in the workplace. We’ve already seen some companies explore the possibility of monitoring their employees through wearables,” adds Mr. Finley. “The danger will be loss of privacy and a reduction of people in numbers: the dark side of the qualified self,” wrote Andrew Chen, a computer-information systems professor at Minnesota State University. Peter R. Jacoby, an English professor at San Diego Mesa College, summed up this line of thought bluntly: “By 2025, we will have long ago given up our privacy. The Internet of Things will demand — and we will give willingly — our souls.”
So, there are those who are forecasting good — as well as bad. And then, there is Bill St. Arnaud, a self-employed green Internet consultant, who wrote, “the Internet of Things has been in the red zone of the hypo-meter for over a decade now. Yes, there will be many niches and applications, but, it will not be the next big thing, as many predict.” Justin Reich, a Fellow at Harvard University’s Berkman Center for Internet and Society, hedged his bets. “I’m not sure that moving computers from people to pockets (smartphones) to people’s hands or face will have the same level of impact that the smartphone has had,” he wrote. “But things will trend in a similar direction. Everything that you love and hate about smartphones — will be more so.”
I am more optimistic and see the glass half-full. V/R, RCP
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