May 20, 2014
Reports: Increase in Pakistan Defense and Nuclear Budgets Likely
Usman Ansari
Defense News
ISLAMABAD — Media reports here have outlined that Pakistan is set to increase funding for the armed forces and the national nuclear body, the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), under the forthcoming 2014-FY2015 budget.
The budget would be just over US $81 million for the PAEC, up from nearly $63 million the previous year (which was later increased to $66 million).
Mansoor Ahmed, from Quaid-e-Azam University’s Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, who specializes in Pakistan’s national deterrent and delivery programs, said although the figures earmarked for the national nuclear body are mainly for a civilian power generation project, there are national security implications.
“This sum is primarily geared toward the construction of the two 1,000-megawatt generation-III safeguarded Chinese nuclear power reactors to be established at Karachi, K-1 and K-2, that were recently initiated by the prime minister,” he said.
However, he added, “Additional financial allocations are most likely earmarked for the unsafeguarded Khushab Nuclear Complex where the fourth plutonium production heavy water reactor is reportedly nearing completion.”
Ahmed said the Khushab Nuclear Complex has been vital in allowing Pakistan to modernize its national deterrent due to its central role in the production of plutonium.
“These and other classified projects are presumably aimed at the development of a new variety of lightweight, compact and more powerful and efficient weapon designs, suitable for a variety of ballistic and cruise missiles, that require additional fissile material [plutonium] production, and fuel fabrication in addition to maintaining and improving existing infrastructure.
“All this has been possible due to the steady enhancement of indigenous manufacturing capabilities developed by the PAEC during the past 35 years,” he added.
The budget increase for the armed forces is also significant.
The new defense budget proper is said to be just over $7.6 billion. This is an increase from the nearly $6.4 billion the previous year, (revised later to $6.6 billion).
The budget is broken down to nearly $3.8 billion for the Army, about $1.6 billion for the Air Force and slightly more than $760 million for the Navy.
This puts the “operational” aspect of the budget at some $6.1 billion for the services and the remaining $1.5 billion earmarked for various defense and defense production bodies.
Former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, Brian Cloughley, says while the sources for the figures reported in the media “seem to be pretty good,” he cautions, “it’s still conjecture rather than hard fact.”
The possible increases “may well be because the Army and Air Force have asked for more in order to pay for the Waziristan operation” to root out the Pakistani Taliban, “which has got to take place, irrespective of what [Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif] thinks or says,” he said.
But this will not necessarily translate into acquisition of new equipment, he said.
“I think they’ll maintain the balance between operating costs and capital equipment acquisitions,” he said.
The Navy in particular could use a capital upgrade, he said.
“I don’t think it’s looking too good for the Navy” Cloughley said. Adding, “Pakistan has simply got to get some more submarines.”
The Navy operates two aging Agosta-70 submarines acquired in the 1970s and three more modern Agosta-90Bs equipped with air independent propulsion (AIP) under a deal signed in the 1990s, and which entered service in the last decade.
However, a deal for three German HDW Type-214 submarines fell through in 2008 due to a lack of finances, and negotiations have been underway for some time with China for six AIP-equipped diesel electric boats.
Analysts said these are likely the S-20 development of the Chinese Type-041 Yuan class, with government officials expecting a deal to be signed by the end of the year.
Analyst Usman Shabbir of the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank said too much cannot be read into the small size of the Navy’s budget, as it has generally been small compared with the other services.
“Large buys are not part of specific force budgets, so Navy’s budget will not tell you if [it] has money for subs or not”, he said.
There is more optimism among analysts over the possible acquisition of Chinese submarines than obtaining further Perry-class frigates from the US. These are desperately required to replace the aging ex-British Type-21 frigates.
One of the six Type-21s, Badr (ex-Alacrity), has already been decommissioned and the remainder will pay off by the end of the decade. Officials had hoped to acquire up to six Perrys to replace these, but to date only one, Alamgir (ex-McInerney) has been acquired. Recent proposals for three more are effectively being blocked by the US Congress.
Though US Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jonathan Greenert was in Pakistan last week, it is not known if transfer of equipment was discussed in addition to the reported talks about regional security. ■
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