10 May 2014
Since the fall of the Taliban regime, the Iranian Government has committed considerable resources to the political and economic reconstruction of Afghanistan
In a tryst with democracy, war-ravaged Afghanistan’s new presidential election has been marked as the new dawn in the political process of the country. The peaceful democratic transition from one president to another would happen for the first time in its chequered history. The unprecedented turnout of Afghan voters, despite Taliban threat, shows the defiant mood of the people, which was considered an important development in a traditional patriarchal society marred by protracted conflict. In the elections held last month, none of the presidential hopefuls secured 50 per cent votes in the first phase of polling. But the June election between Dr Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai will give direction to the future of Afghan politics.
As in previous elections, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) conducted a run-off between the first two contenders amid growing clamour of electoral fraud and rigging. The initial trends apparently give former foreign minister and Northern Alliance Tajik leader Dr Abdullah Abdullah a big lead over former World Bank economist Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, a Pashtun heavyweight with close ties with Washington. This Afghan election is an important event in the timeline of geopolitics as US forces prepare to exit the landlocked nation.
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution of Iran, it has positioned itself as a major regional actor in its neighbourhood. Apart from its influence over Iraq, it is trying to exert its clout over its northern border in Afghanistan. Iranians have wielded enormous influence through Hezbe Wahdat, a Hazarajat ethnic group under the leadership of Ustad Mohaqqeq, who is running for first Vice President with Dr Abdullah. Islamic Republic’s realpolitik has set strategic goals in order to prevent chaos on its border, limiting US hegemony, ensuring peace and stability through empowering nascent democratic institutions and building a platform for projecting influence across the region.
Apart from civilisational links, the two states share a border that is more than 936 kilometres long that necessitates the role being played by either entity. Half a million Afghan refugees and about two million migrants and the drug peddling in Iran via Afghanistan also forced it to play a proactive role in the quagmire. In its robust diplomacy, the Iranians are working vigorously to forge a regional alliance to avoid any US bullying tactics, which have a major military presence on Iran’s border since 2001.
From the very beginning, Iranians have been demanding the exit of American forces from Afghanistan and incumbent President Hamid Karzai has already shown his complete repudiation to sign a new security agreement with the United States, which allowed for the continued presence of foreign forces. At the same time, in anticipating the exit of American troops from Afghan soil, the Iranians have been looking further ahead to a post-exit scenario once the American troops leave the country. Iran is poised to emerge as a major political actor when US forces leave the country.
Both the presidential candidates, who were aware of the fact that Afghanistan is still encountering the menace of extremism, have pledged to sign a contentious “strategic partnership” agreement with Obama Administration if they helm power in Kabul. However, through their extensive involvement in the elections, the Afghan people have straightaway rejected the incorporation of extremist Taliban faction into mainstream political process and proved that they will not allow the Taliban to renew its power under any circumstance. But, some other hardline Pashtun leaders, who have close links with Taliban, can pose potential threat to the regime and the systematic exclusionist policy could reignite the scourge of ethnic and political violence in this already fragile nation. Lack of legitimacy that triggers political crisis could pave the way for continued presence of ISAF forces.
Any prospective role for the Taliban in the Afghan political process will remain a major concern for Iranians, which remains sceptical about the Taliban’s ambitions and is worried they will demand more space for political clout as foreign security forces withdraw. It will enhance the likelihood of emergence of radicalised insurgent groups along the border as it has happened in the past. Such groups could potentially align themselves with anti-Iranian Jundallah and Jaish al-Adl groups and indulge in sabotaging the activities against its national interests and exacerbate cross-border drug trafficking as well. This déjà vu has left Iran in a state of dilemma because the ramifications from these wranglings could cause stir in Iranian geopolitical moves. Despite reservations and reluctance, Iran will throw its weight behind Dr Abdullah Abdullah because of his past credentials as a fierce opponent of Taliban and a prominent member of Iran-backed Northern Alliance, mujahideen’s anti-Taliban umbrella group related to charismatic leader ‘Lion of Panjshir’ Late Ahmad Shah Massoud.
As far as Iran’s effort in establishing peace and stability are concerned, it has always cooperated with the international community right from the very beginning of Bonn Conference in 2001 convened for the reconstruction of Afghanistan. Since the fall of the Taliban regime, the Iranian Government has committed considerable resources to the political and economic reconstruction of Afghanistan. In fact, it has been one of Afghanistan’s largest international donors and continues to contribute approximately $50 million annually. According to UNHCR reports, it has also offered refuge to more than 2.5 million Afghans who have fled the country’s protracted conflict since Soviet invasion, and employment to more than 1.5 million undocumented migrant workers whose remittances have supported the livelihood across Afghanistan.
The continuation of a centralised power structure institutionalised by the incumbent government, dominated by Pashtun ethnic group would cause another bone of contention among various confessional stakeholders. This structure would be maintained through the election win of Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai if he comes to power. At the same time, the other faction, which has pitched Dr Abdullah Abdullah as its presidential candidate, seeks a new power structure based on the distribution of power among various Afghan provinces. The most important contemplation for new Iranian President Dr Hassan Rouhani’s policy is to see a potent central government in Kabul sans ethnic and regional politics, which would be elected through a democratic and legitimate political process. Such a situation will be more suited to the strategic interests of the Islamic Republic rather than the possible disintegration of Afghanistan or the continuation of ethnic monopoly over power. But it is people who will decide their future in Afghanistan.
The continuous bullying tactics on international level did not come to fruition for US-Iran rapprochement on the regional front despite their passive cooperation on Afghanistan. The renewed outbreak of armed conflict is a real possibility at the end of the transition period in December 2014. Pakistan, the traditional backer of Taliban regime, is also capable of rekindling the conflict as it also has deep penetration into the hinterlands of potential troublemakers. The popular and independent dispensation with strong commitments will drag out the nascent Afghan democracy from the long un-silky route of protracted conflicts.
(Yasir Ali Mirza is a research scholar at the Centre for West Asian Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia)
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