Dealing with Nawaz Sharif

Not many Indian leaders know how to handle him

G Parthasarathy

http://www.tribuneindia.com/2014/20140508/edit.htm

JUST before Prime Minister Vajpayee's Lahore bus yatra his predecessor, Mr. Inder Gujral, told me that Nawaz Sharif appeared to be a realistic, reasonable and rational leader. He recalled a conversation on Jammu and Kashmir, when Sharif, a Kashmiri hailing from Anantnag, who was known to be an uncompromising hardliner on Kashmir, had realistically remarked: “Hum jaante hain ki ham Kashmir aapse le nahin sakte aur aap humko Kashmir de nahin sakte” (“I know we cannot seize Kashmir from you and you cannot give Kashmir to us”). Sharif's comments were made after his election in 1997 when, with his patronage, Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, emerged as the most influential Jihadi leader in Pakistan, dedicated to “unfurling the green flag of Islam in New Delhi, Washington and Tel Aviv”.

Sharif is incredibly hospitable. He is a great fan of Bollywood films and loves listening to songs of Lata Mangeshkar, Mohammed Rafi and Kishore Kumar. Hindi film songs were played during a lunch Sharif hosted for Mr. Vajpayee. But his authoritarian streak was evident when he refused to allow Leader of Opposition Benazir Bhutto to meet Mr. Vajpayee. Moreover, Mr. Vajpayee's aircraft had barely taken off from Lahore, when "Khalistan" slogans and propaganda designed to incite visiting Sikh pilgrims from India were unleashed across gurdwaras in Lahore and Nankana Sahib. Unknown to Indian intelligence and the Army, units of Pakistan's Northern Light Infantry were being infiltrated across the Line of Control in J&K. Mr. Sharif was briefed about the Kargil intrusions, both in Rawalpindi and Skardu. Did he not see the contradiction between embracing Mr. Vajpayee on the one hand and unleashing the Pakistan Army to cross the LoC on the other?

On February 12, 1993, during Sharif's first term as Prime Minister, multiple bomb blasts rocked Mumbai, resulting in 350 fatalities and injuries to around 1,200 persons. While Dawood Ebrahim, now a resident in Karachi, organised the explosions, the trail led to the involvement of Sharif's handpicked ISI chief, Lieut-Gen Javed Nasir, and Sharif himself. Moreover, despite what Sharif told Mr. Inder Gujral, the reality is that he does not hesitate to raise the issue of Jammu and Kashmir at every conceivable occasion in Pakistan and when abroad. Sharif has sought to present Kashmir in the Islamic world as an issue of occupation of Muslim lands. Whether he would be amenable to adopting a more realistic path, in keeping with what he told Mr. Gujral, remains to be seen. The world has after all changed dramatically since he was ousted and forced to leave for Saudi Arabia in 1999.

Sharif entered politics as a protégé of President Zia-ul-Haq and Zia's Governor of Punjab, Lieut-Gen Ghulam Jilani Khan. His father, long persecuted by Bhutto, was a natural ally of Zia's military regime. After a brief tenure as Chief Minister of Punjab, Sharif was catapulted to power as Prime Minister in 1990, heading an alliance of Islamist parties put together by the Army Chief, Gen Aslam Beg, and the ISI chief, Lieut-Gen Asad Durrani. But, despite having been catapulted to power by the Army, Sharif has been at constant loggerheads with the successive Army Chiefs. During his first term he was accused by the wife of Army Chief Asif Nawaz of being responsible for her husband's death. He was then sacked by Nawaz's successor Waheed Kakkar following differences with President Ghulam Ishaq Khan. In his second term, he chose to sack the mild-mannered Army Chief, Gen Jehangir Karamat. General Musharraf, whom he appointed to replace Karamat, ousted him from power before imprisoning and exiling him to Saudi Arabia over differences on who should take the blame for the Kargil fiasco.

Even in his third term, Sharif's relations with his hand-picked Army Chief Raheel Sharif have been uneasy over the manner in which General Musharraf is being treated in cases filed against him. Moreover, disregarding the advice of the Army, Sharif has got involved in an uncertain "peace process" with the Tehriq-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Sharif is also involved in political rivalry with Imran Khan over who is a greater supporter of extremist Sunni Islamist outfits. Matters are complicated by the symbiotic relationship between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban. Thus, while a so-called “peace process” is underway between the Sharif Government and the TTP, the Pakistan armed forces are not observing the ceasefire and Pakistan Air Force jets are bombing and strafing TPP hideouts. An already volatile situation along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is set to become even more tense and complicated.

The prevailing situation can only strengthen the Wahhabi-oriented extremist groups in Pakistan, as Sharif and Imran Khan compete for political space across the radical Islamic right. Given the sullen mood in the Army, which has its own axes to grind when it comes to its pet projects of “bleeding India with a thousand cuts” and seeking “strategic depth” via the Taliban in Afghanistan, the present situation is a recipe for the breakdown of governance in large parts of Pakistan. The irony is that this situation arises from rivalry between Oxford educated Imran Khan and billionaire businessman Nawaz Sharif, both of whom have enlightened views on the role of women in national life. When Sharif was incarcerated, it was his wife Kulsoom who took over leadership of his party and waged a gutsy struggle against General Musharraf. His daughter, Maryam, plays an active role in his ruling party. Contradictions in Sharif's policies are thus evident not only in his dealing with India, but also in his approach to governance domestically. He is given to acting instinctively, without a careful analysis of the consequences of his actions, like during the Kargil conflict.

Sadly, few Indian leaders, perhaps with the exception of Narasimha Rao, understood how to deal with a complex personality like Nawaz Sharif. As a new government is scheduled to assume office soon in South Block, it would hopefully avoid getting starry-eyed about the prospects of immediate “break-throughs” or “uninterrupted and uninterruptable dialogue” with Pakistan!