Tuesday, 01 April 2014 | Abhijit Iyer-Mitra |
The crisis in Crimea has shown how Russia is gradually being pushed out of the ‘West' (of which it never really became a part) into the arms of China. India can just about manage to keep up with China as of now, but it simply cannot take on a China plus Russia combination
‘International news’ in India can generically be divided into three categories — nasty stories about Pakistan, reports about what the US thinks of us (in other words, which third rate Indian-origin novelist The New York Times has decided to give op-ed space to) and lastly, assorted disaster news if a few hundred die or some jolly good war breaks out.
Naturally most Indian coverage of the crisis in Ukraine, given our lack of background knowledge and absence of reporters on the ground, has either revolved around regurgitating a Non-Aligned Movement position that is either anti-West or simply a paraphrase of reports from the Western English media outlets (because, ‘Hey! If The New York Times says its true, it must be true’)
But for a second, let’s forget the NAM version (it’s a diabolical American plot set in motion by that evil Victoria Nuland lady) and the Western version (It’s Hitler invading Czechoslovakia all over again), and think about what it means for India in the larger geopolitical context — not just events in Ukraine, but similar events in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
The US and India have always shared one same primary fear, and either consciously or subconsciously followed similar geo-strategic goals, albeit using vastly different paths. That goal has been to prevent any single block or country from dominating the Eurasian landmass, physically, politically or economically. Yet because of geography and relative strength, the US and Indian have adopted different solutions to the problem, which has either put them on a collision course at worst or kept any friendship at sub-optimal levels.
The events in Ukraine are producing an effect similar to what happened in the Cold War and will, in all probability, lay the seeds to future irritants in India-US ties, possibly even to the extent that New Delhi and Washington, DC retreat into an estrangement phase
The undeniable outcome of the Ukraine crisis is that Russia is gradually being pushed out of what is the ‘West’ (of which it never really became a part) into the arms of China. There are two factors at work here. First is that the US and Russia are becoming increasingly more hostile towards each other, and President Vladmiir Putin’s personal paranoia is at an all time high, seeing himself as the last man standing between a free Russia and a complete US takeover.
The second is how China is carefully, slowly and persistently courting Russia. On international affairs, what China sees as taking cover behind Russia, the Russians see as due deference to their status and stature. This, in spite of the fact that Russia is more heavily dependent on China in terms of trade, than China is dependent on Russia. Russia was, for a long time, alarmed by the possibility of a Chinese monopsony over Russian natural resources, given Europe’s push towards renewables. However, the more the West pushes away Russia, the closer Russia goes into the Chinese embrace, for a sheer lack of options and alternatives.
What this means is that a closer Russia-China compact is almost inevitable despite significant impediments. The greater the West’s ostracism and sanctioning of Russia, the more attractive a compact with China seems to Moscow.
Should such a compact come about, it will be a disaster for both the US and India. However each will deal with it separately. History dictates that since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US become unusually sensitive to the concerns of small countries — countries with little geo-strategic value, but ones that come with major league problems and have the potential to become serious liabilities. Moreover these are the countries that are least willing to foot the bill for security problems they bring to the table. Instead, they are freeloaders who expect a free lunch.
America suffers a guilt complex over throwing such countries to the wolves after the Second World War. This means espousal of the rights of smaller countries, despite the problems they bring, will be a continuing feature of American foreign policy, not just in Europe, where America indulges the paranoia of the Baltic states and Poland, but also in Asia, specifically in the South China Sea. These countries are also seen as being the first line in the Western defence against bullies, thanks to the Western memory of Hitler’s annexation of Sudetenland which proved the first step in a larger German game plan.
India, on the other hand, does not share these historical memories. ‘Appeasement’, ‘Munich’ and ‘Yalta’ mean nothing to us. These small countries, therefore, are not the first line of defence for us; instead, they are the guarantee of a pointless war at worse and of insufferable nuisance value at best.
The question then is how exactly will India and the US respond to a growing China-Russia compact? This is dictated by their respective roles of continental middle power, and global offshore balancer — two very different and mutually exclusive responses.
Thus far, India has viewed China as a manageable problem. Though accepting the fact that India cannot compete economically or industrially with China, India’s access to Western high-tech as well as Russian diplomatic support and technology means that it can hold its own. However, take Russia out of the equation, and India feels vulnerable and exposed. Add Russia to the Chinese side and all bets are off. India can just about manage to keep up with China, but a China plus Russia combination is something India simply cannot afford to take on.
This means India’s only responsible option is to capitulate in order to maintain the safety of its landmass. This is probably why Jawaharlal Nehru took slap after slap after slap from the Chinese and pretended nothing had happened. Given our financial situation, given how much India-fatigue there is in in the US, and given our criminally wasteful military expenditure, we may soon have to start taking more slaps and pretending nothing happened.
The US on the other hand has the luxury of distance, a maritime defence mind-set, and a vast network of global interests to protect. It will do what it does best — take on bullies and try to balance them out.
It will, therefore, be wrong for Indians to think of Ukraine as being some esoteric war happening in some exotic remote location with no consequences for this country. Ukraine is where India’s geopolitical fate for the next 35 years or so will be decided. It will be equally wrong for the US to think that it can continue pushing away Russia without serious consequences further down the line.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/oped/why-ukraine-matters-to-india.html
The crisis in Crimea has shown how Russia is gradually being pushed out of the ‘West' (of which it never really became a part) into the arms of China. India can just about manage to keep up with China as of now, but it simply cannot take on a China plus Russia combination
‘International news’ in India can generically be divided into three categories — nasty stories about Pakistan, reports about what the US thinks of us (in other words, which third rate Indian-origin novelist The New York Times has decided to give op-ed space to) and lastly, assorted disaster news if a few hundred die or some jolly good war breaks out.
Naturally most Indian coverage of the crisis in Ukraine, given our lack of background knowledge and absence of reporters on the ground, has either revolved around regurgitating a Non-Aligned Movement position that is either anti-West or simply a paraphrase of reports from the Western English media outlets (because, ‘Hey! If The New York Times says its true, it must be true’)
But for a second, let’s forget the NAM version (it’s a diabolical American plot set in motion by that evil Victoria Nuland lady) and the Western version (It’s Hitler invading Czechoslovakia all over again), and think about what it means for India in the larger geopolitical context — not just events in Ukraine, but similar events in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
The US and India have always shared one same primary fear, and either consciously or subconsciously followed similar geo-strategic goals, albeit using vastly different paths. That goal has been to prevent any single block or country from dominating the Eurasian landmass, physically, politically or economically. Yet because of geography and relative strength, the US and Indian have adopted different solutions to the problem, which has either put them on a collision course at worst or kept any friendship at sub-optimal levels.
The events in Ukraine are producing an effect similar to what happened in the Cold War and will, in all probability, lay the seeds to future irritants in India-US ties, possibly even to the extent that New Delhi and Washington, DC retreat into an estrangement phase
The undeniable outcome of the Ukraine crisis is that Russia is gradually being pushed out of what is the ‘West’ (of which it never really became a part) into the arms of China. There are two factors at work here. First is that the US and Russia are becoming increasingly more hostile towards each other, and President Vladmiir Putin’s personal paranoia is at an all time high, seeing himself as the last man standing between a free Russia and a complete US takeover.
The second is how China is carefully, slowly and persistently courting Russia. On international affairs, what China sees as taking cover behind Russia, the Russians see as due deference to their status and stature. This, in spite of the fact that Russia is more heavily dependent on China in terms of trade, than China is dependent on Russia. Russia was, for a long time, alarmed by the possibility of a Chinese monopsony over Russian natural resources, given Europe’s push towards renewables. However, the more the West pushes away Russia, the closer Russia goes into the Chinese embrace, for a sheer lack of options and alternatives.
What this means is that a closer Russia-China compact is almost inevitable despite significant impediments. The greater the West’s ostracism and sanctioning of Russia, the more attractive a compact with China seems to Moscow.
Should such a compact come about, it will be a disaster for both the US and India. However each will deal with it separately. History dictates that since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US become unusually sensitive to the concerns of small countries — countries with little geo-strategic value, but ones that come with major league problems and have the potential to become serious liabilities. Moreover these are the countries that are least willing to foot the bill for security problems they bring to the table. Instead, they are freeloaders who expect a free lunch.
America suffers a guilt complex over throwing such countries to the wolves after the Second World War. This means espousal of the rights of smaller countries, despite the problems they bring, will be a continuing feature of American foreign policy, not just in Europe, where America indulges the paranoia of the Baltic states and Poland, but also in Asia, specifically in the South China Sea. These countries are also seen as being the first line in the Western defence against bullies, thanks to the Western memory of Hitler’s annexation of Sudetenland which proved the first step in a larger German game plan.
India, on the other hand, does not share these historical memories. ‘Appeasement’, ‘Munich’ and ‘Yalta’ mean nothing to us. These small countries, therefore, are not the first line of defence for us; instead, they are the guarantee of a pointless war at worse and of insufferable nuisance value at best.
The question then is how exactly will India and the US respond to a growing China-Russia compact? This is dictated by their respective roles of continental middle power, and global offshore balancer — two very different and mutually exclusive responses.
Thus far, India has viewed China as a manageable problem. Though accepting the fact that India cannot compete economically or industrially with China, India’s access to Western high-tech as well as Russian diplomatic support and technology means that it can hold its own. However, take Russia out of the equation, and India feels vulnerable and exposed. Add Russia to the Chinese side and all bets are off. India can just about manage to keep up with China, but a China plus Russia combination is something India simply cannot afford to take on.
This means India’s only responsible option is to capitulate in order to maintain the safety of its landmass. This is probably why Jawaharlal Nehru took slap after slap after slap from the Chinese and pretended nothing had happened. Given our financial situation, given how much India-fatigue there is in in the US, and given our criminally wasteful military expenditure, we may soon have to start taking more slaps and pretending nothing happened.
The US on the other hand has the luxury of distance, a maritime defence mind-set, and a vast network of global interests to protect. It will do what it does best — take on bullies and try to balance them out.
It will, therefore, be wrong for Indians to think of Ukraine as being some esoteric war happening in some exotic remote location with no consequences for this country. Ukraine is where India’s geopolitical fate for the next 35 years or so will be decided. It will be equally wrong for the US to think that it can continue pushing away Russia without serious consequences further down the line.
http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/oped/why-ukraine-matters-to-india.html
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