US President Barack Obama travelled to Saudi Arabia on March 28 for his first visit to the country since 2009 and met King Abdullah to “look him in the eyes” and explain that US-Saudi strategic interests remain very much aligned. The visit took place even as the Saudis wonder and worry about the larger US commitment in the region, specifically US willingness to stand by its traditional allies. The diverging nature of US-Saudi interests and the apprehension that their future foreign policy trajectories might take them further away has created this palpable air of uncertainty in the region. Saudi officials have warned of a “major shift” away from Washington.
Washington and Riyadh have had bitter disagreements over the US’ response to the Arab Spring uprisings, and policy towards Iran and Syria. Saudis believe it is a strategic imperative to effect a regime change in Syria to avert what they see as a threat of Iranian domination of Arab countries, a view not shared by Washington. Obama and the Saudi monarch discussed “tactical differences” in their approach to some of these issues.
Obama Visit
Obama and King Abdullah met for more than two hours at the king’s retreat at Rawdat Khuraim, northeast of the capital Riyadh. Obama reassured King Abdullah that the US remains committed to strengthening the moderate opposition in the Syrian civil war. But it is not yet clear whether there was an agreement on any significant expansion of the covert US programme to train and arm the Syrian opposition. While Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states desire greater military assistance to the Syrian rebels, the US is reluctant to provide arms that could end up in the hands of jihadists and extremists in Syria. The Obama administration is reportedly considering allowing shipments of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles (MANPADS) to the Syrian rebels but concerns on their misuse persist.
Iran was another key topic of discussion between the president and the king. Obama assured that the US would not accept a bad nuclear deal with Iran. The White House statement after the talks reiterated the significance US places on its “strong relationship” with Saudi Arabia. The statement added that Washington and Riyadh were working together to address critical bilateral and regional issues, including “the crisis in Syria, preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, counterterrorism efforts to combat extremism, and supporting negotiations to achieve Middle East peace”.
Saudi Threat Perception
The Saudis see an Iranian effort to shift the balance of forces in the region in Tehran’s favour, and trying to encircle them with its elite Quds Force, active in Bahrain, Lebanon, through killing of Sunni Muslims in Syria, supporting the Shiite Muslim militias in Iraq, providing arms to the Houthi rebels in Yemen and fomenting unrest among Saudi Shiites. They also see the Egyptian military battling the Muslim Brotherhood and jihadi terrorists in the Sinai, as a threat to Saudi Arabia. It was not surprising that the Saudis offered to pay for the $2-3-billion arms package Egypt is seeking from the Russians. Saudi Arabia has also given the Lebanese army $3 billion in aid, and some of the money is likely to be spent on weapons from France. Saudi Arabia is seeking to bolster the Lebanese army to counter the Hezbollah, which is funded by Iran.
A diminishing US presence in the Gulf is highlighting the lack of operational readiness in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The Saudis relied on the US as the kingdom’s ultimate security guarantor, and are now taking measures to compensate for the flagging US willingness and capability to intervene in the Middle East. As efforts to make the critical mass of the Saudi armed forces more professional will take years, one option that Saudis are exercising is to put in place a regional collective security arrangement.
GCC Military Command
A joint Gulf military command was approved by the GCC leaders at their summit in Kuwait in December 2013. The Gulf command, according to Saudi Minister of the National Guard Prince Miteb Bin Abdullah, will be built into a 100,000 standing military force, with the Saudis contributing anywhere between 50,000 to 75,000 troops. The Saudi Arabian National Guard (SANG) trained by US advisers since 1975 appears to be the core of the envisioned GCC military command. Saudi Arabia is also contemplating bringing in 25,000-50,000 foreign fighters for training to the kingdom to deter Iran and fight in Syria.
Assessment
The Kingdom’s increasingly tense relations with its Western allies calls for rethinking Saudi-Western relations, and a growing distance between Saudi and its Arab Gulf neighbours on the Syrian, Iranian and Egyptian issues has bred insecurity in the region. These developments have left Saudi Arabia with very few regional allies, and increasingly fewer policy options to shape its desired geopolitical outcomes. Saudi Arabia has threatened that it “will go it alone” in policies towards Iran and Syria, and in this regard is increasing looking at South Asia, in particular Pakistan. Geopolitically they themselves are seeking to encircle Iran by drumming up support in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Pakistan
The Saudis have a close relationship with Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who lived in exile in the kingdom during the Pervez Musharraf dictatorship. Military and intelligence connections between the two are also very close. Saudi Arabia has provided more assistance to Pakistan over the last three decades than to any other country. The Pakistan Development Fund received a gift of about $1.5 billion Saudi aid. The first tranche of $750 million was received on Feb 19 and the second on March 7.
Media reports have emerged that Saudi Arabia has asked for Pakistani military weaponry, such as Chinese-built JF-17 Thunder fighter planes and tanks, for use in Syria. According to some reports, Riyadh has also asked for two divisions of Pakistani troops to be sent to Saudi Arabia to train Saudi troops. However, Pakistani Information Minister Pervaiz Rasheed has said that Pakistan is not sending its army to any other country. Pakistan has earlier reportedly helped Bahrain set up its naval forces, and Pakistani personnel comprise 18 percent of the Bahraini air force. During the Arab Spring, Bahrain is believed to have hired the services of retired Pakistani military and police officials to quell the revolt.
India’s concern about Saudi-Pakistan cooperation would be on three counts. Firstly, the most publicly discussed security strategy for the Saudis involves acquiring nuclear weapons from Pakistan, either purchased or under some arrangement of joint control with Pakistani forces. The nuclear warheads transferred by Pakistan could arm Saudi missiles capable of hitting Iranian targets. Second is the use of Pakistani jihadists to bolster the Syrian opposition, and lastly the proliferation of high calibre weapons and Manpads ( shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles) from and later to Pakistan from the Middle East.
Conflicting interests and views concerning Egypt, Syria, Iran and Palestine have created big rifts in the US-Saudi relationship. India for its own interests would like Saudi insecurities addressed and the US-Saudi relationship stabilised.
(Monish Gulati is a Research Fellow with the Society for Policy Studies. He can be contacted at m_gulati_2001@yahoo.com)
This article was published at South Asia Monitor and republished with permission.
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