EIGHT HOPEFUL LEGACIES OF THE ARAB SPRING

APRIL 14, 2014

POSTED BY JOHN CASSIDY

More than three years after the Arab Spring began, the political situation in the Middle East is depressing. In Syria, a brutal civil war continues, with the forces of Bashar al-Assad gaining the upper hand. In Egypt, General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who has overseen a drastic crackdown on political opponents, looks likely to be elected as President. A democratic Iraq has descended into sectarianism. In Yemen, the U.S.-backed regime continues to battle militants linked to Al Qaeda. Libya appears to be on the brink of chaos. The Israel-Palestine peace process remains stalled. And the oil-rich Gulf monarchies sail on, stifling internal dissent with a combination of harsh laws and generous welfare policies. 

Is it time to give up hope? Not according to Mustapha Nabli, a former governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia, and Bessma Momani, a Jordanian political scientist at the University of Waterloo, who participated in a session that I moderated this past weekend, at a conference in Toronto organized by the Institute for New Economic Thinking. Nabli and Momani both acknowledged that the past three years have been disappointing, with high hopes giving way to counterrevolution, intergroup competition, economic problems, and religious polarization. But they also insisted that the long-term outlook was encouraging. Here are some of the reasons they cited:

1. Thanks to the mass protests that took place in many countries, there is now a credible threat of future uprisings against corrupt and incompetent governments, Nabli said. A former World Bank official who ran Tunisia’s central bank after the uprising that ousted the country’s longtime ruler, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Nabli insists that ruling élites in the Arab World can no longer afford to ignore public demands for democratic reforms and improved material conditions.

2. Despite the recent crackdowns on political expression, the pressure for reform remains strong. The old (and possibly racist) idea that democracy couldn’t take hold in the Middle East has been successfully challenged. “Arab exceptionalism is gone,” Nabli said. Momani, who haswritten frequently about the Arab Spring and its aftermath, agreed. “The democratic spirit is alive,” she said.

3. In many Arab countries, a long-overdue debate between secularists and Islamists is taking place. This discussion started in the nineteenth century, Nabli said, but, for a variety of reasons—colonial rule, nationalism, and dictatorship—it was quashed. Its reëmergence suggests that the modernization process is ongoing, he added.

4. In places like Egypt, the Islamist ideology has been tested and found wanting, Nabli said. Going forward, Islamist parties will be forced to rethink how they engage with the public at large, and to focus on improving the day-to-day lives of the citizens whom they wish to govern. If the Islamists want to retain power, they will have to learn that adherence to religious precepts isn’t enough.

5. Within Islam, there are signs of change. Momani pointed to the emergence of a generation of preachers, such as the Egyptian Amr Khaled, who are rejecting the ultra-conservative readings of the Koran, which have been increasingly dominant in recent decades. Some of these more progressive preachers talk about the need for love and for making the most of life, Momani said, and they are finding a receptive audience.

6. Many of the demographic and technological forces that underpinned the Arab Spring are still in place. The Arab population is young and increasingly well educated, Momani reminded the audience. And, thanks to the Internet and other new technologies, young people have access to a lot more news and information than their parents did, which makes it more difficult for the élites to manipulate, or to ignore, them.

7. Although the old regimes have fought back successfully in some countries, respect for authority, and for old ways of thinking, has been gravely undermined, Momani claimed. Many young Arabs are no longer willing to accept that all of their problems are caused by colonialism, Zionism, or American imperialism, she said, and they are looking more critically at their own societies and governments. She referred to this phenomenon as “an end of ‘isms.’”

8. Even in the area of gender equality, a bit of progress is finally being made. Momani pointed to Saudi Arabia, the only country in the world that bans women from driving. In recent months, activists have launched a campaign—which the authorities have not stamped out—to allow women to get behind the wheel. In a country as conservative as Saudi Arabia, this is a huge development, Momani said.

The other member of the panel, Sandra Halperin, a professor of international relations at the University of London, was more skeptical about the prospects for further reforms. Despite the mass uprisings that shook the region, many of the underlying social and economic structures that underpinned the old, oppressive regimes remain in place, Halperin pointed out. Nabli and Momani, while not downplaying the challenges ahead, remained more upbeat. “In the short term, we are in for a rough ride,” Nabli said. “But we are seeing the seed of democracy rooting itself.” Referring to the Arab Spring, Momani said, “Is it over? No…This is the beginning.”

Above: Tahrir Square, Cairo, 2012. Photograph by Dominic Nahr/Magnum.