http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21601313-deal-geneva-fails-ground-descent-darkness
A deal in Geneva fails on the ground
Apr 26th 2014
FOR a brief moment it seemed that eastern Ukraine’s slide into conflict might be halted. A deal struck in Geneva on April 17th between Russia, the United States, the European Union and Ukraine called for illegally occupied buildings to be vacated and armed groups to give up their weapons. But Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk, brushed it off, saying that, since the Ukrainian government was illegal, only if it left its buildings would his people do so.
Armed men have seized public buildings in a string of towns in the Donbas region. It is unclear how much support they have. Polls suggest that two-thirds of people in the south and east want to stay part of Ukraine and not be annexed by Russia, as Crimea was in March. Even among anti-government protesters and gunmen there is disharmony over aims. Some want to join Russia; others want more autonomy within a federal country.
Mr Pushilin says the Donetsk region will vote on local “sovereignty” on May 11th. Vladimir Makovich, a spokesman, says that, if the vote is passed, “we will be part of Ukraine until we separate from it.” Yet it is unclear how much of the region the rebels control. In Donetsk they occupy the regional administrative building, yet around it life carries on. In Luhansk normal life continues in most of the city. In Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, both surrounded by checkpoints, the rebels’ control is more obvious. If they are still there on May 25th, they will be able to stop locals from voting in Ukraine’s presidential election, which many think is a main goal. Eastern separatists, pro-Russian forces and the Kremlin will then be able to continue arguing that the government in Kiev is illegitimate.
The Ukrainian government faces a forbidding task to regain control. On April 16th two armoured convoys near Sloviansk were halted by civilians and gunmen. On April 20th three men at a rebel barricade near Sloviansk were killed in a mysterious shooting. Rebels claimed to have been attacked by men from the extreme nationalist Ukrainian Right Sector. Whatever the truth, locals were whipped up. “They died for our freedom and our future in great Russia,” said one at the funeral. “Rest assured we will have our revenge for this. We will have it for sure,” said another. The bodies of two tortured men were later fished out of a nearby river. The two incidents seem unconnected, but one body was of a politician from Gorlovka opposed to the rebels. On April 24th there were reports of more clashes, including shootings, around Sloviansk.
Visiting Kiev on April 22nd, Joe Biden, America’s vice-president, pledged support for the Ukrainian government and accused Russia of backing the rebels. The Americans also promised to send troops to Poland and the Baltic states. In turn Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, accused the Ukrainian government of being behind the Sloviansk shootings, adding that “Kiev can’t, and maybe doesn’t want to, control the extremists who continue to call the shots.” Viacheslav Ponomarev, the rebel boss of Sloviansk, called for Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, to send troops to save his “peaceful people who are dying”.
In eastern Ukraine, in short, the fog of war has descended. Social media amplify crazy claims by both sides and the truth is hard to determine. Some pro-Ukrainians have staged protests, but many are too scared to show their allegiance and just want to get on with their lives. There is no mass support for separation from Ukraine, says Ihor Todorov of Donetsk University, but there are some calling for “Putin to give a big salary and big pensions”. Asked if he wants Donetsk to remain part of Ukraine or not, Oleh, a local taxi driver, snaps: “I don’t care. I just want to be paid more.”
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