There has been an increased focus on food security in India. But, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report warns climate change will affect food security of developing countries — the availability as well as the nutritive value of crops cultivated. As the world observes Earth Day today, a lot depends upon India’s coping strategy
Usha Rai
EVEN before the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came out with its detailed scientific evidence of climate change and its disastrous consequences, if countries are not alert and pro-active, the unpredictable weather of the last several months was ample evidence of what the scientists foresee. Unseasonal rains and freak hailstorms lashed many parts of the country leaving a trail of destruction. In Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh the loss of standing crops led to a spate of farmer suicides.
THE EASY WAY: Farmers burn remains of the wheat crop in Punjab to clear fields for sowing, causing environmental damage. Photo Malkiat Singh
A total of 309 coordinating lead authors and review editors from 70 countries were selected to produce the report titled Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. They enlisted the help of 436 contributing authors and 1,729 expert and government reviewers. In Asia the report warns of increase in flood damage to infrastructure, livelihood and settlements. There will be an increase in heat related human mortality — remember the high heat mortality observed in Orissa and across north India as temperatures soared in the summer months. Also, there is forecast for increased drought related water and food shortages.
The report concludes that responding to climate change involves making choices about risks in a changing world. The nature of the risks of climate change is increasingly clear, though climate change will also continue to produce surprises. The report identifies vulnerable people, industries, and ecosystems around the world. It finds that risk from a changing climate comes from vulnerability (lack of preparedness) and exposure (people or assets in harm’s way) overlapping with hazards (triggering climate events or trends). Each of these components can be countered with smart action to decrease risk.
While Vicente Barros, Co-chair of Working Group II that produced the report, said “We live in an era of man-made climate change….investments in better preparation can pay dividends both for the present and for the future.” Chris Field, also a Co-chair, pointed out “Climate-change adaptation is not an exotic agenda that has never been tried. Governments, firms and communities around the world are building experience with adaptation. This experience forms a starting point for bolder, more ambitious adaptations that will be important as climate and society continues to change.”
Wheat and rice cultivation
Prof. Surender Kumar of the Department of Business Economics, South Campus of Delhi University, one of the scientists who looked at the impact of climate change on key economic sectors and services, says a 2 degrees rise in temperature will impact wheat and rice grown in Punjab and Haryana. However, the impact will be more on the rice grown in eastern India. In north India, the increase in radiation will offset to some extent the negative impact of temperature. Rice yields may be impacted up to five per cent. Wheat production will be affected more in the rain-fed areas than in irrigated areas.
In 2008, Dr Rodomiro Ortiz and other scientists had published a paper ‘Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat?’ in Science Direct, warning that climate change could strongly affect wheat crops that account for 21 per cent of food and 200 million hectares of farmland worldwide. They looked at germplasm adaptations, system management and mitigation as various approaches to reduce the impact of climate change on wheat cultivation. While global warming could be beneficial for wheat crops in some regions, it could reduce productivity in other areas. By 2050 in the Indo Gangetic plains which account for 15 per cent of global wheat production, as much as 51 per cent of the area might be reclassified as heat-stressed, irrigated, short season production mega environment. This could represent a significant reduction in wheat yields unless appropriate cultivars and crop management practices were offered and adapted by South Asian farmers, the scientists pointed out.
Heat tolerant germplasm
Under the same climate scenarios, area covered by the cool, temperate wheat mega-environment could expand as far as 65 degrees N in both North America and Eurasia. To adapt and mitigate the climate change effects on wheat supplies for the poor, germplasm scientists and agronomists are developing heat-tolerant wheat germplasm, as well as cultivars better adapted to conservation agriculture. Simultaneously, agronomists and extension agents hope to cut CO2 emissions by reducing tillage and the burning of crop residues.
Mitigation research promises to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide by using infrared sensors and the normalized differential vegetative index (NDVI) that determines the right times and correct amounts of fertilizer to apply. Wheat geneticists and physiologists are also assessing wild relatives of wheat as potential sources of genes with inhibitory effects on soil nitrification, says the report in Science Direct.
In India, there has been an increased focus on food security but the report warns that climate change will affect food security of developing countries —the availability as well as the nutritive value of crops cultivated. In fact, Prof Kumar says the rise in food prices in the last four/five years can be traced to climate change. Lower income groups that spend almost 50 per cent of their earnings on food will be affected. In Indian conditions, even a small dent in agriculture production will have a large macro-economic impact as agriculture production declines.
Stress on farm research
The expected four to five per cent decline in rice and wheat production will depend on India’s coping strategies — crop diversification and better irrigation facilities. Water that is available will have to be better managed. Though in absolute terms agriculture yields have increased since the green revolution of the sixties and seventies, the rate of increase has been declining since the 1990s, adds Prof Kumar. The government will have to increase farm research and extension development activities. The IPCC assess the scientific knowledge available so that governments can make policy interventions to deal with climate change.
For Prof Kumar, the most significant findings are the impact of climate change on manufacturing, services like insurance, tourism and finance. With temperatures rising and increased humidity, the capacity of labour, India’s large work force, will decline. With energies sapped by rising temperatures, they will not have the ability to deliver.
Burden of malnutrition, malaria
Climate change is projected to increase the burden of major worldwide causes of childhood mortality, including malnutrition, diarrhoeal diseases and malaria. According to Save the Children, 48 per cent of Indian children under five are malnourished. According to UNICEF, one of every three malnourished children of the world is in India. According to Malaria International Medical Corps every year 655,000 people die of malaria, most of them in the African countries. In addition to malaria, India is coping with dengue and Japanese encephalitis.
Climate change will also impact tourism and recreation, one of the largest sectors of the world economy, employing 260 million people in 2011 and accounting for 9 per cent of global expenditure. Climate change will affect tourism resorts, particularly ski, beach and nature resorts. This will lead to tourists spending their holidays at higher altitudes.
Beach tourism vulnerable
Of the 51 countries that have been ranked for vulnerability of beach tourism, India stands out as the most vulnerable and Cyprus as the least vulnerable, according to the report.
This means Goa, one of the favourite beach destinations of the world, should be prepared for the drop in tourism as should Puri and other beach resorts of the country.
While colder, richer countries will benefit from an expanded tourism sector, warmer, poorer countries will lose out. The economic impacts on the tourism sector are reinforced by the economic impact on the coastal zone.
The report also warns of negative impact of climate change on transport infrastructure. Over $ 3 trillion in port infrastructure assets in 136 of the world’s largest port cities are vulnerable to changing weather. Increased storminess in certain routes could raise cost of shipping through additional safety measures or longer routes that are less storm-prone. Increase in storminess at airports, particularly those located in coastal regions, may increase number of weather related delays and cancellations and increase maintenance and repair costs.
Can India stop climate change?
The IPCC report has shown that continuing on the path of high carbon emissions will hurt India’s development and negate what has been gained in improving the standard of living. Just how bad it will get hinges on the choices made. For example, coal-fired power plants are the biggest source of manmade CO2 emissions.
In India up to 40 percent of CO2 emissions come from coal, making India the world's third largest emitter of carbon dioxide after China and the US. The new government must stop and reverse the unbridled surge in coal mining and burning, and open its eyes to other options.
India Energy ®evolution, an expert study published by Greenpeace, has shown that by switching to clean energy such as wind and solar, India could bring electricity to the 300 million who are still without it, while reducing emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. At the same time, this would create millions of extra jobs, compared to the low-manpower coal sector. To prove this is not just theory, Greenpeace is building renewable energy demonstration projects in different areas, from an unconnected village in Bihar to the rooftops of central Delhi. All that is required is the political will to create a stable investment environment for clean energy.
Coal reserves in India cannot deliver beyond a few years, and coal is a risky investment for industries and the government. However, the cost of solar power is falling, and in a few years is expected to be cheaper than coal. Countries like Germany and China are putting their money in solar energy.
Water fury
* An increase in riverine, coastal and urban flooding can lead to widespread damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and settlements in Asia.
* This might mean likely impact on cities such as Mumbai and Kolkata in India and Dhaka in Bangladesh.
* But how bad it will get hinges on near-term choices.
* Risk from a changing climate comes from vulnerability (lack of preparedness) and exposure (of people or assets in harm’s way) overlapping with hazards, triggering climate events or trends.
* Each of these components can be countered with smart action to decrease risk.
The writer is a well-known environment journalist.
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2014/20140422/edit.htm#7
Usha Rai
EVEN before the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) came out with its detailed scientific evidence of climate change and its disastrous consequences, if countries are not alert and pro-active, the unpredictable weather of the last several months was ample evidence of what the scientists foresee. Unseasonal rains and freak hailstorms lashed many parts of the country leaving a trail of destruction. In Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh the loss of standing crops led to a spate of farmer suicides.THE EASY WAY: Farmers burn remains of the wheat crop in Punjab to clear fields for sowing, causing environmental damage. Photo Malkiat Singh
A total of 309 coordinating lead authors and review editors from 70 countries were selected to produce the report titled Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. They enlisted the help of 436 contributing authors and 1,729 expert and government reviewers. In Asia the report warns of increase in flood damage to infrastructure, livelihood and settlements. There will be an increase in heat related human mortality — remember the high heat mortality observed in Orissa and across north India as temperatures soared in the summer months. Also, there is forecast for increased drought related water and food shortages.
The report concludes that responding to climate change involves making choices about risks in a changing world. The nature of the risks of climate change is increasingly clear, though climate change will also continue to produce surprises. The report identifies vulnerable people, industries, and ecosystems around the world. It finds that risk from a changing climate comes from vulnerability (lack of preparedness) and exposure (people or assets in harm’s way) overlapping with hazards (triggering climate events or trends). Each of these components can be countered with smart action to decrease risk.
While Vicente Barros, Co-chair of Working Group II that produced the report, said “We live in an era of man-made climate change….investments in better preparation can pay dividends both for the present and for the future.” Chris Field, also a Co-chair, pointed out “Climate-change adaptation is not an exotic agenda that has never been tried. Governments, firms and communities around the world are building experience with adaptation. This experience forms a starting point for bolder, more ambitious adaptations that will be important as climate and society continues to change.”
Wheat and rice cultivation
Prof. Surender Kumar of the Department of Business Economics, South Campus of Delhi University, one of the scientists who looked at the impact of climate change on key economic sectors and services, says a 2 degrees rise in temperature will impact wheat and rice grown in Punjab and Haryana. However, the impact will be more on the rice grown in eastern India. In north India, the increase in radiation will offset to some extent the negative impact of temperature. Rice yields may be impacted up to five per cent. Wheat production will be affected more in the rain-fed areas than in irrigated areas.
In 2008, Dr Rodomiro Ortiz and other scientists had published a paper ‘Climate change: Can wheat beat the heat?’ in Science Direct, warning that climate change could strongly affect wheat crops that account for 21 per cent of food and 200 million hectares of farmland worldwide. They looked at germplasm adaptations, system management and mitigation as various approaches to reduce the impact of climate change on wheat cultivation. While global warming could be beneficial for wheat crops in some regions, it could reduce productivity in other areas. By 2050 in the Indo Gangetic plains which account for 15 per cent of global wheat production, as much as 51 per cent of the area might be reclassified as heat-stressed, irrigated, short season production mega environment. This could represent a significant reduction in wheat yields unless appropriate cultivars and crop management practices were offered and adapted by South Asian farmers, the scientists pointed out.
Heat tolerant germplasm
Under the same climate scenarios, area covered by the cool, temperate wheat mega-environment could expand as far as 65 degrees N in both North America and Eurasia. To adapt and mitigate the climate change effects on wheat supplies for the poor, germplasm scientists and agronomists are developing heat-tolerant wheat germplasm, as well as cultivars better adapted to conservation agriculture. Simultaneously, agronomists and extension agents hope to cut CO2 emissions by reducing tillage and the burning of crop residues.
Mitigation research promises to reduce emissions of nitrous oxide by using infrared sensors and the normalized differential vegetative index (NDVI) that determines the right times and correct amounts of fertilizer to apply. Wheat geneticists and physiologists are also assessing wild relatives of wheat as potential sources of genes with inhibitory effects on soil nitrification, says the report in Science Direct.
In India, there has been an increased focus on food security but the report warns that climate change will affect food security of developing countries —the availability as well as the nutritive value of crops cultivated. In fact, Prof Kumar says the rise in food prices in the last four/five years can be traced to climate change. Lower income groups that spend almost 50 per cent of their earnings on food will be affected. In Indian conditions, even a small dent in agriculture production will have a large macro-economic impact as agriculture production declines.
Stress on farm research
The expected four to five per cent decline in rice and wheat production will depend on India’s coping strategies — crop diversification and better irrigation facilities. Water that is available will have to be better managed. Though in absolute terms agriculture yields have increased since the green revolution of the sixties and seventies, the rate of increase has been declining since the 1990s, adds Prof Kumar. The government will have to increase farm research and extension development activities. The IPCC assess the scientific knowledge available so that governments can make policy interventions to deal with climate change.
For Prof Kumar, the most significant findings are the impact of climate change on manufacturing, services like insurance, tourism and finance. With temperatures rising and increased humidity, the capacity of labour, India’s large work force, will decline. With energies sapped by rising temperatures, they will not have the ability to deliver.
Burden of malnutrition, malaria
Climate change is projected to increase the burden of major worldwide causes of childhood mortality, including malnutrition, diarrhoeal diseases and malaria. According to Save the Children, 48 per cent of Indian children under five are malnourished. According to UNICEF, one of every three malnourished children of the world is in India. According to Malaria International Medical Corps every year 655,000 people die of malaria, most of them in the African countries. In addition to malaria, India is coping with dengue and Japanese encephalitis.
Climate change will also impact tourism and recreation, one of the largest sectors of the world economy, employing 260 million people in 2011 and accounting for 9 per cent of global expenditure. Climate change will affect tourism resorts, particularly ski, beach and nature resorts. This will lead to tourists spending their holidays at higher altitudes.
Beach tourism vulnerable
Of the 51 countries that have been ranked for vulnerability of beach tourism, India stands out as the most vulnerable and Cyprus as the least vulnerable, according to the report.
This means Goa, one of the favourite beach destinations of the world, should be prepared for the drop in tourism as should Puri and other beach resorts of the country.
While colder, richer countries will benefit from an expanded tourism sector, warmer, poorer countries will lose out. The economic impacts on the tourism sector are reinforced by the economic impact on the coastal zone.
The report also warns of negative impact of climate change on transport infrastructure. Over $ 3 trillion in port infrastructure assets in 136 of the world’s largest port cities are vulnerable to changing weather. Increased storminess in certain routes could raise cost of shipping through additional safety measures or longer routes that are less storm-prone. Increase in storminess at airports, particularly those located in coastal regions, may increase number of weather related delays and cancellations and increase maintenance and repair costs.
Can India stop climate change?
The IPCC report has shown that continuing on the path of high carbon emissions will hurt India’s development and negate what has been gained in improving the standard of living. Just how bad it will get hinges on the choices made. For example, coal-fired power plants are the biggest source of manmade CO2 emissions.
In India up to 40 percent of CO2 emissions come from coal, making India the world's third largest emitter of carbon dioxide after China and the US. The new government must stop and reverse the unbridled surge in coal mining and burning, and open its eyes to other options.India Energy ®evolution, an expert study published by Greenpeace, has shown that by switching to clean energy such as wind and solar, India could bring electricity to the 300 million who are still without it, while reducing emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. At the same time, this would create millions of extra jobs, compared to the low-manpower coal sector. To prove this is not just theory, Greenpeace is building renewable energy demonstration projects in different areas, from an unconnected village in Bihar to the rooftops of central Delhi. All that is required is the political will to create a stable investment environment for clean energy.
Coal reserves in India cannot deliver beyond a few years, and coal is a risky investment for industries and the government. However, the cost of solar power is falling, and in a few years is expected to be cheaper than coal. Countries like Germany and China are putting their money in solar energy.
Water fury
* An increase in riverine, coastal and urban flooding can lead to widespread damage to infrastructure, livelihoods and settlements in Asia.
* This might mean likely impact on cities such as Mumbai and Kolkata in India and Dhaka in Bangladesh.
* But how bad it will get hinges on near-term choices.
* Risk from a changing climate comes from vulnerability (lack of preparedness) and exposure (of people or assets in harm’s way) overlapping with hazards, triggering climate events or trends.
* Each of these components can be countered with smart action to decrease risk.
The writer is a well-known environment journalist.
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2014/20140422/edit.htm#7
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