Afghanistan Post-NATO Drawdown

Wikistrat recently concluded a two-week simulation called “Afghanistan Post-NATO Drawdown” in which our strategic community was asked to map out what the country will look like in 2017, three years after American and NATO forces have pulled out. One scenario challenged the conventional wisdom of Pakistan sabotaging peace efforts and suggested it could actually play a stabilizing role. A summary is provided here.

Despite leaving a residual force for training, logistics support and special operations, the drawdown in NATO military personnel in Afghanistan leaves the central government weakened. While other interested powers, like Iran and Russia, are reluctant to get involved, Pakistan steps in. It reinforces its support for the Taliban as well as the presidential faction within the government. Recognizing that they would need Pakistan’s support to overthrow the government in Kabul, many Taliban decide that they can best advanced their goals by working with the government.

Pakistan sponsors talks between the government and moderate Taliban figures to produce a coalition government. While Afghanistan’s erstwhile Western sponsors are appalled, they have no incentive to reengage, especially as the Pakistan-brokered coalition delivers peace in the previously wartorn southern provinces. Instead, they focus on lobbying Pakistan and the new Kabul government to reduce opium production and prevent a return of Al Qaeda.

China is glad to see its ally stabilizing Afghanistan and thus avoiding it offering safe haven to Uighur separatists intent on destabilizing Xinjiang. China also increasingly sees opportunities for economic investment in Afghanistan, which Pakistan’s alliance with the Kabul government can guarantee.

Saudi Arabia sees Pakistan’s actions as another welcome blow in the Middle East’s Sunni-Shia conflict. It, too, is happy to provide economic and military aid to enhance Pakistan’s meager resources. Pakistan itself gains as the stabilization of southern Afghanistan impacts positively on the other side of the border.

The presidential palace in Kabul, Afghanistan

By 2017, a coalition between Taliban and non-Taliban Pashtun governs in Kabul, in close alliance with Pakistan. Southern Pakistan is largely stable, with some more extreme Taliban groups active but lacking popular support. Tajik opposition to the majority Pashtun government remains, but it is constricted to the river valleys of the north of the country. As Afghanistan recovers economically, Pakistan is able to trade its influence with the Kabul government over drugs and terrorism suppression for respectability in the West.

Reluctant as Russia is to see the Taliban in Kabul again, it is even more reluctant to get drawn into a fight against what it regards as a fait accompli. Moreover, the bordering Central Asian states continue to show little sign of jihadist contagion from Afghanistan, except for the ongoing issues in Uzbekistan.

Iran does try to stir up trouble in the west of Afghanistan, but without the support of its Middle Eastern ally Russia, it is able to achieve little. Supported economically by Pakistan, but more importantly by China and Saudi Arabia, the Kabul government is also able to launch the kind of projects that buy loyalty.

China leverages its collaboration with Pakistan in Afghanistan to become a more proactive player in Central Asia altogether. Smaller powers there note the relative weakness of Russia over Afghanistan and draw their own conclusions.

The big losers are India and the West who learn that losing influence in Afghanistan means losing influence in wider Central Asia. The consequences are especially serious for India. Pakistan’s success in helping stabilize Afghanistan gives it the influence to exclude India from Central Asia — one of its geopolitical targets. Furthermore, India is unable to use Afghanistan to pressure Pakistan and distract Islamabad from mischief-making in Kashmir.

Wikistrat Analysts Matthew Batten-Carew, Jose Gaudet, William Hagestad II, Jeffrey Itell, Tyler Omichinski and Shaun Riordan contributed to this scenario.