So says Yochi Dreazen, in a March 26, 2014 online article in The New Republic, with the title above. For the full article, go to theNewRepublic.com. Mr. Dreazen writes that “over the past 18 months, drones piloted by Hezbollah-but almost certainly built and supplied by its patron, Iran-have penetrated Israeli airspace, coming unnervingly close to key infrastructure sites and major population centers. Soon, they may be joined by others [drones] sent by Hamas: In October, near the West bank city of Hebron, Palestinian security personnel arrested a team of operatives preparing to launch a drone packed with explosives. The events, set off alarm bells within the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), which last April [2013] released a statement declaring unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV’s) to be a serious threat to the country.”
“Hezbollah’s drones represent the next evolution of warfare-by-remote control, when weaponized robotic planes give terrorist groups de facto air forces,” writes Mr. Dreazen. “As Matthew Levitt, Director of the Washington Institute’s Stein Program for Counterterrorism and Intelligence, points out, each flight into Israel is — at a minimum — a significant propaganda victory for the militia. They gain more credibility anytime they compete with the ‘mighty’ Israeli Air Force.” he says. “They love being able to say, “Israel is infiltrating our airspace, so we’ll infiltrate theirs, drone for drone.” And, “drones flown kamikaze-style, could easily match the casualties of a suicide bombing [on the ground] and, be much harder to stop,” adds Mr. Dreazen. And, “Hezbollah’s unmanned aircraft could also improve its planning of future offensives by providing surveillance footage of Israeli border facilities and troop movements. Drones give the group a way to see where the rockets land and calibrate further strikes for greater precision. The drones change the equation. They can relay back information so Hezbollah can [improve] its targeting. They [drones] can provide them with real-time intelligence and flexibility,” said Mr. Leavitt.
“To be truly effective at surveillance, drones need to stay aloft for a half a day or more. Arming them with guidable missiles or bombs — rather than crudely affixing them with explosives as Hezbollah did to its older drones — adds hundreds of pounds of weight that reduces their flight range. A more powerful engine can compensate for that, though it just creates new aeronautics problems to solve. Much about Iran’s current drone fleet is a mystery and, much of what has been revealed may be pure hyperbole, writes Mr. Dreazen. But, the evidence suggests that in the years after the 2006 Israel/Hezbollah Conflict, Iran spent a lot of time and effort on increasing their drones lethality.
“The biggest fear, however, is that drones might increase the deadliness of Hezbollah rockets,” writes Mr. Draezen. Hezbollah, “fired roughly 4K missiles into Israel during the 2006 war with the country, killing 43 civilians and leveling several dozen buildings — tactically speaking, an abysmal accuracy rate. Hezbollah is now thought to have a stockpile of roughly 60K projectiles, triple the amount it had back then, and some of them capable of reaching Tel Aviv.
The adversary gets a vote as General Petraeus is often quoted as saying. More, and clever use of drones and autonomous systems by the adversary is a given. IED’s of the future won’t just be buried, or disguised underground, on structures, on a person; but, will also come from the air, in the form of “homicide/kamikaze drones. “Traitor drones,” made to look and appear as one of “your own,” and designed to be a “Trojan Drone,” as well as stealth drones, and dog-fighting drones are all likely to be used in the not too distant future. Boomerang, or “hacked” drones is also no doubt on the drawing board. Perhaps Albert Einstein was right when he said he didn’t know what the weapons of WWIII would be; but, he predicted WWIV would be fought with “sticks and stones.” V/R, RCP
No comments:
Post a Comment