To defend the West, we must form a full-fledged EU-U.S. economic union.
By
VICTOR PONTA
March 20, 2014
Bucharest
The dramatic events in Ukraine illustrate a historic moral hazard that has created a damaging mind-set throughout Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the last decade. With some variations, we, the countries of this region, ended up taking for granted one of the most precious assets a nation can have: its security.
Despite the financial and sovereign-debt crises, which most of the CEE nations weathered quite well, our membership in NATO (since 2004) and the European Union (since 2004 for most, and since 2007 for Bulgaria and Romania) has led these nations to believe in our own version of the "end of history"—the notion first coined by Francis Fukuyama in his 1989 essay positing a "universalization of Western liberal democracy," implying the end of significant international conflict.
Our belief wasn't rooted in sheer ignorance of the threats that remained in the world. Rather, we were consumed by national and regional issues remarkable only for their pettiness, including in my own country, Romania. The instinct for thinking big—which was present in our nations before we fully joined the West politically, economically and militarily—was gradually replaced by variations of the urge to settle small domestic scores, to revive the ghosts of the past for electoral gain or to blame outside powers for domestic mistakes.
The image of Russian troops pouring into Ukraine and encircling military units in Crimea has been a wake-up call that will reverberate for a generation. It highlights several truths. Central among them is that the West has no choice but to remain united in an anarchic world that still includes undemocratic sovereigns whose behavior can neither be predicted nor controlled. NATO remains the cornerstone of Atlantic security. Only together do Europe and the U.S. stand a chance of keeping liberal democracy as the central doctrine for organizing world affairs.
Above all, however, the recent events in Ukraine show that wielding political power internationally depends increasingly on a player's ability to both impart and withstand economic shocks. As the democratic West mulls the losses it will impart on countries whose behavior we wish to alter, we must also consider the losses we ourselves are able to absorb in this economically interdependent, globalized world. Economic interdependence is no longer for theorists: These days it is the central test for power distribution on the planet. This implies a significant loss of relative Western power with which we have probably not yet fully come to terms.
How to confront the reality and tackle the challenge? The savviest solution lies in deeper economic integration within the Western world, to reap the benefits of scale, innovation and diversity. Obviously, the cornerstone of all Western integration is between Europe and the U.S. The mooted Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership would be a major first step, but we should seriously consider bolder moves, for instance a full-fledged EU-U.S. economic union. I am personally convinced that the world will force us, sooner or later, to acknowledge this necessity and start working on it.
The endgame of this solution is an Atlantic economic superpower, which would wield unprecedented capacity to impart and withstand economic losses relative to the rest of the world, whose hard security would be guaranteed by NATO. Such a scenario would translate to more autonomy and international clout for all Western nations, and bring together our like-minded societies. The societal geography of the two rims of the Atlantic is beautiful: rich in natural resources, the best universities of the world, still the best technological bases, human diversity, shared values and hopes. The economic integration of Europe and the U.S. would allow for sustained long-term development on both our shores, and the repatriation of large chunks of manufacturing from the rest of the world.
However, before we can begin working toward a full trans-Atlantic economic union, we must first address the significant mistrust of our citizens in the realms of trade and economic policy. Using cold facts and figures, leaders throughout the West must become more transparent with their citizens in explaining their decisions and their choices in global markets. We must also listen, and devise a progressive agenda for the future we seek, which includes economic fairness, environmental sustainability and upward social mobility.
We must also overcome entrenched thinking on both sides. Just one example, which is currently hindering the TTIP negotiations: Europe needs to look more closely at the rationalism inherent in America's regulatory tradition (the principle of using "science-based" evidence that a product is harmful before banning or restricting it); whereas the U.S. needs to better understand Europe's instinctive application of the precautionary principle (which rests on the knowledge that long data series take time to collect and that scientific conclusions are sometimes revised). Neither school of thought is fully right or fully wrong, if we pause for a second.
My country, Romania, has done its share of drifting from thinking big, and is now willing to fully regain its sense of history and play an important role in the grand Western project. Mine is a country that deserves more than its elites have been able to offer so far: Romania is rich in resources and inhabited by gifted and educated people. It is a growing powerhouse for information technology, it is strong in manufacturing and it can once again become an agricultural powerhouse. Romania also produces excellent engineers and scientists, many of whom have contributed to economic growth abroad during the past 25 years.
There are many areas in which Romania can do much better, for instance in government: Most importantly, we need to improve governance and limit the scope for graft in our country. The judiciary has been doing its part to root out impunity. I belong to a generation of young politicians who can and will turn Romania into a strong economy and a country of opportunity, with responsible progressive politics part of my personal credo.
A strong and dignified Romania will shoulder its share of responsibility within the Atlantic superpower, throughout all stages of its coming into being.
Mr. Ponta has been prime minister of Romania since May 2012.
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