ARMY GENERAL WARNS OF FULL U.S. WAR WITHDRAWAL

By: Philip Ewing

March 6, 2014 01:39 PM EST

http://dyn.politico.com/ printstory.cfm?uuid=E0358738- 70A6-46A5-8623-0307AD3779FD

Afghanistan would begin to deteriorate quickly after a total withdrawal of U.S. military forces, the top American commander in the Middle East warned on Thursday, also cautioning senators about the postwar shock waves that could shake the region.

Army Gen. Lloyd Austin, head of U.S. Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Afghan National Security Forces would begin to worsen and weaken very soon if all American troops came home in December, and that a nervous Pakistan to the south might respond to its fear of instability with potentially destructive consequences.

“Without our fiscal support and certainly without our mentorship, we’d see, immediately, a much less effective ANSF,” Austin said. “Over the long term, we could possibly see a fracturing of that force. I would go further to say it would be problematic for the region … very quickly, [we would see] hedging activity as each of the countries in the sub-region really moved to protect their interests. That would be somewhat destabilizing for the region as a whole.”

These threats are why it’s critical for the U.S. to find a way to leave behind troops for the long term, Austin said, although he acknowledged the political problems with Afghan President Hamid Karzai means the path to get there is not clear.

Assuming Washington can find a partner with whom to agree after April’s presidential election, Austin said he supports the NATO plan for a long-term force of between 8,000 and 12,000 troops – “plus special operations,” he said.

That suggested that Austin and other American commanders would consider the special operations troops who’d be assigned the long-term “counterterrorism” mission in Afghanistan over and above the force tasked with training and advising the ANSF. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey cited the 8,000 to 12,000 range to senators on Wednesday, but neither he nor Austin has made public his specific recommendation for how many American troops should stay in Afghanistan.

Given the stakes he described for Afghanistan and the region, frustrated senators asked Austin, why has Karzai reversed course after negotiating the bilateral security agreement and even having it endorsed by a traditional council?

“I wish I could give you some insight into what the president of Afghanistan is thinking, but, unfortunately, I can’t,” Austin said. He agreed with the committee chairman, Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), that Washington should just write off Karzai and look to try to sign a deal with his successor as soon as possible.

Senators asked Austin about the final point at which the U.S. could stop its withdrawal from Afghanistan and keep enough of a force in place to form the kernel of the long-term training deployment. And he echoed Dempsey’s message that today the situation is one of “low risk,” that by the summer it would rise to “moderate risk” but “as we go beyond that time frame, the July, August time frame, the risk increases substantially.”

Austin also reminded senators of the risks involved if Pakistan believes the U.S. will abandon the ANSF, which Islamabad views as a potential hornet’s nest that could cross its porous border and take up with the terrorist groups of its northern districts.

“A well-equipped force on their border that is losing control, losing oversight, losing leaders … is very, very troubling for them,” Austin said. Letting that happen, he said, would squander an opportunity the U.S. has now to deal with new military leaders in Pakistan who are interested in preserving a long-term relationship with Washington.

“I am very encouraged by the new military leadership in Pakistan,” Austin said. “From the military side of the house – that’s what I get – I think they’re sincere about it. I’m very encouraged by what I’m listening to and some of what I’m seeing. The jury’s still out, we have a long way to go, but our relationship is trending positive in a number of directions.”

Even keeping a post-2014 force, however, would not solve the larger strategic problem of international terrorism, however. Under questioning from Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), Austin and Gen. David Rodriguez of U.S. Africa Command said that the U.S. and allies still have a much larger job in order to make progress against the basic threat of Al Qaeda.

“This is a whole of government approach, by many governments,” Austin said. “This is an idea we have to counter over time, and in order to defeat an idea, you need a better idea. We have to work together as a government, with other governments to get after this, to get after causes that allow those ideas to flourish. We have to … continue to put pressure on networks, you have to be faster and more agile than they are, you have to be lethal where required, but that will only solve a part of the problem. It requires a much more comprehensive approach and going forward; we need to do better at that.”