AN OCCASION TO WORK IN TANDEM, NOT CONFRONT

19 February 2014

Ashok K Mehta

India and Pakistan should launch joint economic projects in Afghanistan. The ball is in Pakistan's court. A change in heart is required in Pakistan not just for the good of AfPak but the entire region

“My President can’t keep troops in Afghanistan till the Bilateral Security Agreement is signed. But even without BSA we will try to do whatever is possible to support Afghanistan”, a top adviser to US President Barack Obama told me earlier this month at the Eisenhower Wing of the White House. He added: “We’re in the middle of discussions this week and next week on what to do and not to do”. He was referring to ongoing meetings between Mr Obama and his top military commanders in Kabul, the US Central Command, Special Operations Command and Chairman and Vice Chairman Joints Chiefs of Staff. Congressional staffers of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, though, were less sanguine, saying without the BSA, zero option is a reality as it is difficult for policymakers to look beyond the BSA hurdle. State Department officials on the other hand said: “Withdrawal is not the end game”, a familiar punch line on Afghanistan. Still there is no confusion among decision makers.

I heard a more positive line in Brussels from officials of the European Union External Action Service and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. “EU will stay the course for the next seven years, we will find ways to get around the BSA. We are not walking away and are committed to pay salaries of the ANSF”, they said. Nato will sign with Afghanistan, the Status of Forces Agreement at an appropriate time.

In Europe and America particularly, while there may be no appetite left for fighting the Al Qaeda, the zero option is not an option. There is a Plan B and as one member of the Atlantic Council Washington remarked, “the reason why you don’t put up Plan B is that the moment you do it becomes Plan A. Frankly Plan A and Plan B are the same. President Hamid Karzai has refused to sign the BSA and made the US organising a reconciliation dialogue with Afghan Taliban a precondition. Mr Karzai has unilaterally released 65 detainees Washington regards as dangerous and inimical to the Afghan and US interest. The US Congress has cut US aid to Afghanistan from $2.9 billion to 1.2 billion, apparently to spite Mr Karzai not signing the BSA (but he told Union Minister for External Affairs Salman Khurshid in Kandahar this week that he would sign it).

All the 11 presidential candidates for the April election are committed to honouring the BSA which has been approved by a Karzai-chosen Loya Jirga and Parliament. Whether Mr Ashraf Gani or Mr Abdullah Abdullah is the new President, most Afghans want the BSA signed. The US and allied drawdown will be responsible to ensure the hard earned gains are preserved and consolidated. A repeat of Najibullah (1992) when Soviet Union stopped funds to President Najibullah’s beleaguered regime after the Soviet withdrawal in 1979 is unlikely.

The four pillars to relative peace and security in Afghanistan remain credible Presidential election, continued capability development of the 3,52,000 Afghan National Security Forces, the international community and donors honouring their financial commitments for the economic transition; and reconciliation with Pakistan and Afghan Taliban.

The election has to be a lot better than the one in 2009, say paymasters of Afghanistan. The benchmarks of good governance were laid down in 2012 in the Tokyo Mutually Accepted Framework with the bottom line being reducing corruption. The Independent Election Commission and Independent Election Complaints Commission have to be truly autonomous. The problem anticipated is paucity of international observers to monitor the fairness of elections.

The ANSF has assumed countrywide operational responsibility except of the Ring Road which is guarded by the ISAF. What the ANSF will lack is logistics and air and artillery support. They are expected to hold out and resist any Taliban invasion. Few if any expect a repeat of a Taliban takeover a la 1996 and surprisingly Pakistan does not welcome that contingency.

Afghanistan’s revenue at current nine per cent GDP growth rate is around $2.5 billion in a security driven economy. The Afghan budget requires $7.5 billion annually leaving a fiscal gap of nearly five billion dollars plus. Given that corruption accounts for nearly three billion dollars, the country requires an additionally seven billion dollars annually. This money has to be found from the international community and donors. Reconciliation with Pakistan is work in progress but with Afghan Taliban it has reached a dead end.

By June this year a new President in Kabul and a new Government in New Delhi will be in place. Majority of Afghanistan analysts in our region are predicting a civil war scenario in which the Afghan Taliban will race to Kabul mounted on Pak-supplied chariots and a repeat of 1947 tribal invasion of Jammu & Kashmir from AfPak badlands. The ball, they say, will be in Pakistan’s court and as India-Pakistan relations will take a nosedive post 2014 , an intifada type insurrection in Kashmir is likely.

A more rational assessment should be made on the assumption that the US and West will continue their curtailed commitment to Afghanistan, the US especially with the BSA bases in order to use its drones to target Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban, more importantly to monitor Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal which is growing at an alarming pace. Unmanned US drones keep 24x7 vigil over Pakistan’s nuclear facilities to ensure no breach of their red lines of stealth of nuclear parts or materials. The US and Israeli commandoes have conducted joint exercises to sanitise Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities.

A Taliban rush to Srinagar is unlikely. Even so, the new Government in India should make Afghanistan a priority subject in the resumed dialogue with Pakistan as neither country wants a fully autonomous Afghan Taliban to take over Kabul. However unlikely, if this were to happen, it would unleash the combined wrath of Afghanistan and Pakistan Taliban against Pakistan with the spillover into India. In Islamabad, the new Army Chief, General Raheel Sharif and his political master Nawaz Sharif are seriously considering checkmating such an outcome. New Delhi too should consider the worst case but plan to step up military assistance. India is providing three Cheetah helicopters and financing the repair of five Soviet-left AN32s by Ukraine. Any other assistance to bolster ANSF could be in consultation with Islamabad. Both should also launch joint economic projects in Afghanistan. The ball is certainly in Pakistan’s court; a change in heart is required in Pakistan not just for the good of AfPak but the entire region also. This is not wishful thinking.

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