Reorienting U.S. Pakistan Strategy

From Af-Pak to Asia

Author: Daniel S. Markey, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia

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Publisher Council on Foreign Relations Press 

Release Date January 2014 

50 pages

ISBN 978-0-87609-579-9

Council Special Report No. 68

Overview 

For more than a decade, U.S. strategy toward Pakistan has been dominated by the struggle against terrorism. The war launched in 2001 in neighboring Afghanistan and waged, in part, in Pakistan's tribal regions has overshadowed America's other interests in South Asia, not least nuclear issues, regional stability, and economic growth. Today, as the United States "rebalances" its foreign policy focus toward Asia, and as the U.S. military draws down its presence in Afghanistan, the relationship between the United States and Pakistan is poised for reassessment. The outcome, however, is anything but clear. A clean break between Pakistan and the United States seems unlikely, despite simmering disagreements over a number of issues. Also unlikely is a full rapprochement. That said, if it chose to do so, Pakistan could contribute to the advancement of U.S. priorities in Asia, Afghanistan, and the war on terror, but the country's weak governance, slow economic growth, and growing nuclear arsenal combine to cast serious doubt on whether it will so choose. 

In this Council Special Report, Daniel S. Markey examines Pakistan's complex role in U.S. foreign policy. Markey advocates a two-pronged U.S. approach to Pakistan that works to confront and quarantine the immediate threats it poses to regional security and stability while simultaneously attempting to integrate it into the broader U.S. agenda in Asia. 

Regional security is with good reason the first prong of Markey's strategy. The destructive potential of a weakened, isolated, and/or hostile Pakistan is, he writes, significant. An armed conflict between India and Pakistan, or a major Pakistan-based terror attack on India, would not only disrupt India's booming economy but also affect wider regional stability. Pakistan's internal security threats, Markey notes, are no less serious, and the possibility that it will continue to offer safe haven to terrorist organizations, imperil Afghanistan's reconstruction, or disrupt U.S. negotiations with the Taliban is a source of real concern.

Markey recommends that the United States act now to address these threats and work to contain the effects of Pakistan's domestic challenges within its borders. He suggests that the United States open a formal dialogue with China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Pakistan issues and explore options for expanded counterterror cooperation with India. Markey also proposes that the United States restructure its military aid to Pakistan, decoupling it from the war in Afghanistan and focusing (as well as conditioning) it instead on Pakistan's efforts to fight terrorism and violent extremism within its borders. 

In pursuit of regional integration, the second prong of his strategy, Markey recommends that the United States create opportunities for Pakistan to develop relationships with its neighbors in Asia, particularly India. He calls for a trade agreement with India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan that would offer preferential access to American markets on the condition that those countries reduce barriers to intraregional trade. He also recommends that the United States support the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline project and, more broadly, that Washington focus its civilian aid on other trade-related infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and ports. The economic and strategic benefits of integration could be substantial. Markey explores several scenarios in which, for example, more normal relations with India could enable Pakistan to act as a regional trade hub or even contribute to regional security. 

Markey offers useful recommendations for a revamped U.S.-Pakistan strategy in this Council Special Report. The result is a valuable report that, while emphasizing the urgent need to combat the many threats Pakistan poses, nonetheless provides a glimpse of what a more integrated Pakistan could in turn contribute to Asia. It is a vision well worth considering, if only because the alternatives could prove so costly.