http://indiadefenceforum.com/discussion-at-jaipur-literary-festival-on-future-of-afghanistan-via-pakistan-china-and-usa-india-losing-interest/
IDF Analysis from the LITFEST Press Terrace ….Extremely well organised event which must be rich too as a set up, and has quality as all attendees here are cultured and interested in the subject and it is free for the AAM ADMI as politicians are not involved .
Much credit to organiser long haired Sanjay Roy son of late Adm M K Roy. BZ So far no hanky panky here as at THINKFEST but lot of maja.
One of the best discussions that India Defence Forum has heard on Afghanistan was at the Jaipur Literary Festival and as time is brief this posting will be in bullet points as discerning readers will know the import of the bullets. This IDF report must start with CONTROVERSIAL JOURNALIST TURNED AMBASSADOR
FOR PAKISTAN IN USA AND DISCREDITED ie Hussien Haqani’s excellent talk on his book DELUSIONS which is selling
like hot cakes here in Japur and he was in conversation with Shayam Saran and Blackwill a former Ambassador Professor of USA and he brought along Ashley Tellis as his aide. He was in Delhi and had a lot to do with India’s NO FIRST USE and DE-MATED NUCLEAR POLICY where the military is not involved in the formulation and possibly in its use except now with SFC which is alittle dangerous …But India we will fight the way we do with what we have and the systems we have. No worry. ,
As usual Government thinks the above policy is GOOD ENOUGH. …..Chalta Hai and Jugad. Zindabad.
The discusoons on Pakistan were as follows
* Pakistan has fooled USA all along (DELUSIONS) and USA knew but had no option but to seek Pakistan’s help on Afghanistan and in Musharraf’s time Pakistan’s economy did well. Pakiistan is a Nuclear state. It worries USA.
*USA was hoping the actions will help India Pakistan Rapprochement but it did not as India is not sure or ready for it politcially for its PM going all out for rapprochement. It was what Brzezinski has said India has no strategy for its future and even to resolve Poverty except slogans GARIBI HATAO …….The Military of India is not involved in Rapprochement to assure Pakistan Military its sanctity and the military of Pakistan will not allow Rapprochement.
QED but it will happen.
*This state will continue for a long time and USA cannot forsake Pakistan and stop aid what India wants PM Nawaz Sharriff is a hero for making Pakistan go nuclear to face India…..Musharaff’s future ??????? He will fight it out. .
ON AFGHANISTAN 2014 AS IT IS CONNECTED Mark Mazetti National Security Correspondent of NYT , Rubin Barnett advisor to USA on Afghanistan ( Excellent) and Ben Anderson author of NO WORSE ENEMY were in convversation with William Darymple . This is the gist
* William Darymple known as Willy was at his best and he has a lot of knowledge told the audience about how China has taken over the copper mines in Didema ?? and set up miles of Pre Fab camps etc and started mining. So has commercial interests.
*A bit has commenced but Taliban is attacking the Chinese and also the UGHURS so China has told Pakstan NO WAY SHOULD TALBAN come to power ……..Will USA play ball is the question to be answered as unsure of the Pakistani thinking if there is one and the Military controls that. The key is the military of Pakstan. USA knows that. India has done a great job for development and is most liked, but Indian aid is reducing. Pakistanis are hated but are inter connected so its not easy to dismissand the ISI help to the Haqqani regime which co-operates wit the Taliban is another
challenge while Taliban attack the Pak military .. -.
*Barnett. Majority USA troops will leave 2014 and leave small CIA etc there in cities and hope the ANA can stabilize Afghanistan and will help as best they can and discussed how this will happen. The EU and nations will contribute. He gave a good lecture on Pashtuns and Hazaras who are Shias and were slaves in old times are now amalgamated with Sunnis. Barnett said CHINA can CO-OPERATE with India as both do not want TALIBAN.
But Karzai is playing poker with every body,,,,,,,,,Which means “hold cards when you can and release when you cant”. Very well explained.
Secretly nations seem to want Aghanistan to fall in to chaos …….if China gains ..weird but true.
* Marzetti …….Pessimistic and looks like Taliban will come back in to power in pockets and it is clear India has no direct acess to Afghanistan so needs its access. through IRAN.This will see India in a quandry as Russia and Iran getting closer. So IDF asks can we go back to Northern Alliance (NA) .Taliban hate USA ( Guantanamo bay memory ) and will not talk to USA till they are clear on what Karzai is up to in the BSA or Lor Jirga or Elections etc.
TALIBAN is now associated in business and has it in in opium trade ( Traditional) and in busness with Iran and Middle East as the last few years have seen the phenomenon described as WAR MAKES PEOPLE LEAVE CITIES. That is what happened earlier . MONEY MAKES PEOPLE RETURN and that has made Afgahnsiotan a market and Taliban has exploited it so has the money.
No clear conclusions …BUT PAKISTAN HOLDS MANY KEYS ….IDF calls it Geography and no one can deny Pakistan that. . . .
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