Corridors, Coasts, and Contestation: Sino–Bangladesh Relations in the Bay of Bengal and the BCIM Space

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Shahab E. Khan

The visit to Beijing by Bangladesh's Prime Minister Tarique Rahman in June 2026 has led to a further strengthening of bilateral relations, as shown by fifteen memoranda, a new joint communiqué, and a proposal for the China–Myanmar–Bangladesh Economic Corridor. This swift diplomatic advancement makes use of transactional multipolarity in order to obtain important Chinese investments in coastal infrastructure, such as a new framework for Mongla Port and the Pekua submarine base.

As Dhaka deals with a highly restricted international environment after 2025—one characterised by interdependence that is being used as a weapon and by geopolitical struggles over supply chains—the need for energy and financing for infrastructure means that Beijing has to be an essential partner, even though the interim government signed the Bangladesh–U.S. Reciprocal Trade Agreement on February 9, 2026, in order to gain access to Western markets. The difficulty lies in balancing these conflicting alignments. In the end, the absence of a clear national foreign policy consensus under the 'Bangladesh First' doctrine leaves Dhaka with serious strategic weaknesses within the Beijing-Washington-Delhi geopolitical triangle.

Myanmar and the Growing Influence of China

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Sanjay Pulipaka

The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) remains the cornerstone of Beijing's strategic push to secure direct access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the contested Malacca Strait. Following the 2021 military coup, China has intensified its dual-track diplomacy, balancing relations between the ruling State Administration Council (SAC) and powerful Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) along its southern border.

This pragmatic approach allows Beijing to safeguard critical infrastructure, including the Kyaukphyu deep-sea port and twin oil and gas pipelines, despite Myanmar's escalating civil war. By leveraging its influence over border-based EAOs like the United Wa State Army (UWSA), China exerts significant leverage over both the junta and the resistance forces. Stability along the shared border remains Beijing's primary operational priority. As Western sanctions further isolate the SAC, Myanmar's economic dependence on China will deepen, cementing Beijing's role as the dominant external arbiter of the country's fragmented political future.

Exclusive: US military had close call after using AI for false intelligence report, sources say

CNN | Katie Bo Lillis,Zachary Cohen

The United States military narrowly avoided a direct military conflict with China in the spring of 2026 after an artificial intelligence tool generated a false intelligence report. Armed forces were preparing to board a Chinese vessel in the Middle East based on a chatbot's erroneous claim that the ship carried nuclear weapons components.

This near-miss occurred as a special operations analyst queried a chatbot using a mix of open-source and secret signals intelligence from US Special Operations Command Pacific. Despite the risk of relying on corrupted data, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth launched the Artificial Intelligence Acceleration Strategy in January to speed up deployment. The initiative aims to put AI models into the hands of three million personnel, as a memo announcing the strategy said. However, the integration remains highly decentralised, lacking standardised verification protocols. AI allows bad ideas to travel faster. Consequently, chatbot hallucination incidents raise immediate fears of catastrophic, data-driven miscalculations on the battlefield.

US sanctions boost China’s science-driven innovation by over 70%, study finds

South China Morning Post | Holly Chik

United States trade sanctions, specifically the Entity List, have driven a 72 per cent surge in science-linked patent applications by targeted Chinese firms. These restricted companies are increasingly turning to open-source scientific literature to reverse-engineer technologies and build internal capabilities. This strategic adaptation now rapidly accelerates technological self-reliance in China.

This shift unfolds against a broader expansion of corporate science within China, where domestic firms are rapidly deepening their integration with academic research. To analyze these strategic shifts, researchers from Shenzhen University, Tsinghua University, and the University of Hong Kong examined Chinese patent filings from 2010 to 2022. Although Chinese firms still lag behind their American counterparts in overall scientific depth, their science-linked patents grew 13.4-fold. Additionally, China leverages its dominance over rare earth mining and processing as a powerful countermeasure to these trade restrictions. Decoupling risks creating two separate, competing global innovation systems. This fragmentation makes knowledge flow highly inefficient.

Pentagon Math Over Physics

Small Wars Journal | Morgan Bazilian, Chris Bronk

The US Department of War’s June 2026 Post-Quantum Cryptography Strategy mandates that all high-impact military systems transition to quantum-resistant algorithms by December 31, 2030, to prevent adversaries from decrypting intercepted national security communications. This directive explicitly bans quantum key distribution, a physics-based encryption method heavily prioritised by China.

The decision highlights a fundamental divergence in cryptographic philosophy between Washington's software-centric approach and Beijing's extensive hardware-based quantum network. While China has fielded a 1,250-mile Beijing-to-Shanghai quantum network and a ground-to-space capability, the Pentagon rejected this infrastructure-heavy model due to signal degradation at vulnerable relay nodes. Instead, the American strategy relies on mathematical standards finalised by NIST in August 2024, including ML-KEM and ML-DSA. Security remains provisional. In 2022, researchers broke a leading post-quantum candidate using a single desktop computer, highlighting the risks of relying on mathematically unproven algorithms. Implementation falls on individual military services, raising concerns over potential delays.

Rare honour: Trump will greet Xi at Joint Base Andrews, not just White House

South China Morning Post | Khushboo Razdan

US President Donald Trump will personally greet Chinese President Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews when Xi arrives in Washington next Wednesday. This rare airport reception represents a highly unusual diplomatic honour that bypasses standard White House welcoming protocols to signal a shift in bilateral engagement.

This symbolic gesture comes after Xi participated in a welcome ceremony for Trump at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026. The upcoming meeting highlights the intense diplomatic maneuvering between Washington and Beijing as both nations navigate complex trade and security tensions. Personal chemistry between the two leaders remains a critical variable in managing these competitive dynamics. The gesture carries immense symbolic weight. Ultimately, the high-profile reception at Joint Base Andrews will test whether these symbolic overtures can translate into substantive policy agreements on outstanding bilateral disputes.

The AI danger that matters most? Falling behind China.

The Washington Post | Marc A. Thiessen

American artificial intelligence development faces a critical strategic threat if domestic panic leads to a nuclear-style freeze on research, potentially handing the technological advantage to Communist China. Halting progress risks losing the bilateral AI arms race to Beijing, which would carry severe geopolitical and national security consequences. This debate over existential risk has polarized the technology sector, pitting catastrophic warnings against highly skeptical scientific assessments.

Former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon warned on X that advanced systems could cause human extinction by the end of the decade. Conversely, former Meta chief AI scientist Yann LeCun dismissed these fears, arguing that such an outcome is less probable than an asteroid impact or a nuclear holocaust. Beijing stands to benefit. Consequently, the strategic trade-off between safety regulations and competitive dominance remains the central policy challenge as leaders weigh these competing scientific perspectives on existential danger.

The Pentagon must prepare for battles around the moon: Joint Chiefs chair

Defense One | Thomas Novelly

Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine warned that United States forces must prepare for potential military conflict in cislunar space and on the lunar surface. This rhetorical shift coincides with recent disclosures by the Air Force and Space Force regarding newly deployed orbital weapons, raising urgent questions about operational readiness and legal frameworks.

Rapid Chinese advancements in cislunar space, including relay satellites and robotic missions on the far side of the moon, drive these American preparations. To counter these developments, the 18th and 19th Space Defense Squadrons have divided the cislunar monitoring mission. Legal frameworks remain highly ambiguous. While the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 bans military bases on celestial bodies, it does not restrict orbital operations or clarify the rules for non-kinetic space weapons. Consequently, the Senate Armed Services Committee has mandated a formal assessment of military space law requirements in the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act.

America Has The Brain, China Has The Body: The Next US–China Tech War

Eurasia Review | Collins Chong Yew Keat

The United States Federal Communications Commission placed foreign-produced advanced robotic devices on its Covered List in July 2026 to mitigate severe risks of espionage, cyberattacks, and remote firmware compromise. This regulatory intervention targets Chinese-manufactured systems before they achieve deep integration within American industrial, logistics, and port infrastructures. This preventive denial strategy responds directly to Beijing's aggressive industrial scaling, which yielded nearly 300,000 industrial robots in 2024, representing approximately 54 percent of global installations.

In contrast, American operators installed only 34,000 units during the same period. Scale creates technological advantages. While American entities maintain a significant lead in artificial intelligence models, semiconductor design, and private AI funding—which reached an estimated $285.9 billion in 2025 according to Stanford data—they remain heavily dependent on foreign physical hardware. The next phase of this technological rivalry will test whether Washington can successfully establish a trusted, allied-backed hardware manufacturing stack to counter China's dominant physical production ecosystem.

China, Not Iran, Is Trump’s Real Foreign-Policy Debacle

Foreign Policy | Nicholas Bequelin and Yaqiu Wang

The United States has lost significant geopolitical and economic ground to China across multiple strategic fronts during the first nineteen months of Donald Trump’s second presidential term. This systemic setback in U.S.-China competition has emerged as Washington's primary foreign policy debacle, eclipsing the ongoing security crisis and war involving Iran.

Beijing has capitalised on this period to advance its positions in global trade, economic influence, and artificial intelligence development. The strategic shift occurred despite high-level bilateral diplomacy, including a critical Trump-Xi summit. Washington failed to maintain its competitive edge. Consequently, the administration's intense focus on Middle Eastern escalation distracted from the primary long-term threat in Asia and the Pacific. This imbalance has severely compromised the American global deterrence posture. Future stability now hinges on whether the United States can successfully recalibrate its trade policies and technological safeguards to counter rapid Chinese expansion.

The Houthi Advance Is About More Than Just Iran

Foreign Policy | Marc Lynch

The Houthi military advance in Yemen is increasingly driven by the intensifying geopolitical rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates rather than solely by Iranian influence. This regional competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi shapes strategic alignments, threatening energy security, oil infrastructure, and broader maritime stability across the Middle East.

Underlying tensions between the two Gulf powers stem from divergent approaches to Yemen's southern transition, local governance, and control over strategic ports. Local proxy dynamics complicate international mediation efforts. As the United States and Israel monitor these shifting dynamics, the ongoing friction between the Gulf allies undermines cohesive coalition efforts to deter Houthi maritime strikes. Consequently, the fractured security architecture in the Red Sea allows the insurgent group to consolidate territorial gains, threaten global oil supply chains, and expand its operational reach. This unresolved competition ensures that the conflict will continue to destabilise regional trade routes and complicate Western security calculations.

Pentagon official’s ‘contemptuous’ briefing sparks bipartisan ire

Roll Call | Rebecca Kheel

Elbridge Colby, who is the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, came under heavy bipartisan criticism from the Senate Armed Services Committee while giving a classified presentation on the National Defense Strategy. During this presentation, the Senators charged the Pentagon's policy head with stonewalling and with not having provided an opening statement or clear answers about the war which is currently going on in Iran.

The disagreements highlight the longstanding disputes between Congress and the administration concerning military transparency and strategic planning. There has been serious concern among members of Parliament about the absence of clearly defined strategic objectives in the conflict, which has resulted in attacks being carried out on between 14,000 and 16,000 targets. The stocks of munitions are being used up very quickly. At the same time, the administration's proposed $1.5 trillion defence budget for fiscal 2027 and its additional request of $67.1 billion are still blocked in Congress. As a result, Senate Democrats have asked Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth to give a full account of the costs of the war and of the remaining $34 billion in reconciliation funds by the deadline of September 30.

In War, Trump and Putin Are Much Alike

Foreign Policy | Keir Giles

The United States is now adopting the Russian Federation's strategic methods of warfare, a move which directly serves Moscow's geopolitical aims. The fact that the two countries have aligned themselves in both their political and military strategies poses a serious threat to the current global security situation, especially as it relates to the war in Ukraine, U.S. foreign policy, and the future of the Western alliances.

The fact that these changes are taking place shows the deep structural transformations occurring within Washington's foreign policy establishment as it readies for a possible second presidential term by Donald Trump. These institutional adjustments might affect the way in which Washington handles regional crises, such as the conflict in the Middle East and its strategic competition with China. The transition indicates a move away from traditional democratic norms towards more transactional and centralised methods of decision-making. This represents a significant change. In the end, these two parallel approaches to dealing with conflict and with governance could lead to the weakening of international treaties, cause disruption in global trade, and speed up the fragmentation of the rules-based international order, thus giving rise to revisionist powers.

AI and the Future of National Security: Findings from a survey of 100+ national security practitioners on the opportunities and risks of advanced AI deployment in military, cybersecurity, intelligence, and CBRN

Institute for Security and Technology | Mariami Tkeshelashvili, Ritika Verma

The Institute for Security and Technology has released a landmark survey of 111 national security experts warning that adversarial AI misuse and automated disinformation represent the most critical threats to United States national security. These findings reveal deep institutional unreadiness across federal agencies to counter rapid technological escalation.

Respondents, representing the Department of Defense, State Department, and the Intelligence Community, emphasize that defensive vulnerabilities stem primarily from sluggish bureaucratic response times and outdated legal frameworks rather than technical limitations. AI offers significant opportunities to accelerate scientific discovery and bolster cyber defence capabilities. However, integration risks remain high. Over ninety percent of surveyed practitioners have actively engaged with international AI policy, yet coordination gaps persist. Institutional inertia hinders rapid adaptation. Consequently, the slow pace of policy formulation leaves critical infrastructure vulnerable to automated exploitation. Ultimately, the gap between technological advancement and regulatory oversight creates a strategic vulnerability that adversaries are poised to exploit.

An M.I.T. Report Warns A.I. Is Causing ‘Cognitive Surrender.’ Universities Are in a Bind.

The New York Times | Mark Arsenault, Dana Goldstein, Alan Blinder, Sarah Mervosh

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology released an August 2026 report warning that generative artificial intelligence is causing "cognitive surrender" and major cultural shifts among university students. This rapid technological adoption has isolated students, reduced communal studying, and created an illusion of learning when bots are consulted at the first sign of academic struggle.

Despite these severe warnings, university administrators continue to embrace artificial intelligence to prevent institutional obsolescence. This tension places professors and students in a difficult operational bind. Learning cultures are eroding. Educators face a choice between adopting advanced tools to remain competitive or restricting them to preserve critical thinking. While some national leaders focus on existential threats to humanity, campus administrators remain preoccupied with immediate threats to traditional educational models. Consequently, the lack of a unified academic strategy leaves students navigating highly inconsistent classroom policies across different departments.

Generals Need to Answer the Hard Questions

The Dispatch | Kevin Carroll

General Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently asserted that military leaders must restrict their counsel to operational feasibility rather than policy decisions. This stance directly contradicts the historical precedent of World War II, where senior commanders actively shaped both strategic and moral policy.

During that conflict, officers like General George Marshall and Admiral Ernest King routinely debated non-military questions, including the "Europe first" strategy and the allocation of resources for the Manhattan Project. They did not hesitate. Their strategic integration proved vital because uniformed leaders understand the human cost of combat in ways civilian policymakers often do not. This extensive historical record suggests that separating military advice from ethical and policy considerations weakens national decision-making during crises. Ultimately, the statutory duty of the Joint Chiefs chairman requires providing comprehensive advice on whether an objective is worth the expenditure of American lives.

US Allies Are Removing Their Nation’s Assets from U.S. Soil

Frida Insight | Frida Ghitis

The Dutch central bank (DNB) has repatriated a significant portion of its gold reserves from the United States and Canada to Europe, reducing its American holdings from nearly one-third to 18.5 percent. This strategic relocation reflects a broader European effort to mitigate exposure to perceived American political volatility and potential asset seizures under the Trump administration.

Growing European anxieties regarding Russian aggression and erratic U.S. foreign policy are driving this systemic shift. Earlier this year, France liquidated $15 billion in New York-held bullion to purchase gold domestically, while public pressure mounts on Germany's Bundesbank and Italy to secure their respective foreign-held reserves. Trust is eroding rapidly. This institutional de-risking threatens the global standing of the U.S. Federal Reserve and risks depressing demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. Consequently, international investors are demanding higher yields to fund growing American fiscal deficits, signaling a long-term erosion of Washington's financial hegemony.

War By Other Means

Small Wars Journal | Habib Badawi

Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz during Operation Epic Fury by inducing private war-risk insurers to withdraw coverage, demonstrating a highly disruptive tactic of insurance-market weaponisation. This manoeuvre achieved blockade-equivalent effects without a single military interdiction, bypassing traditional naval deterrence and leaving no legally cognizable state authority.

The crisis erupted seventy-two hours after joint US-Israeli strikes targeted the Natanz and Fordow enrichment sites on February 28. Consequently, Lloyd’s of London syndicates and Protection and Indemnity clubs halted underwriting, rendering strategic petroleum reserve releases of 400 million barrels by the International Energy Agency ineffective. Tankers simply could not sail. This commercial freeze severely impacted developing Asian economies importing 60 to 95 per cent of their crude from the Gulf, while Houthi forces simultaneously resumed attacks on Suez shipping. Ultimately, this operational blueprint remains highly transferable to other critical maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca or the waters surrounding Taiwan.

Customer Data Permanently Lost in Iran Strikes on Amazon Data Centers

Wired | Jeremy Hsu

Amazon Web Services has permanently lost critical customer data hosted in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates following devastating Iranian drone and missile strikes. The physical attacks, which began on March 1, 2026, inflicted catastrophic structural damage that completely bypassed the cloud provider's regional redundancy designs, exposing severe vulnerabilities in global digital infrastructure.

This vulnerability stems from a US-Israeli conflict with Iran that erupted on February 28, 2026, quickly escalating into kinetic targeting of commercial technology nodes. Data recovery proved impossible. Consequently, an AWS dashboard update confirmed total data loss in the UAE's mec1-az2 zone and across all three Bahrain availability zones, which were further targeted on July 24 by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. While the company issued $150 million in customer credits and suspended billing, the ongoing war continues to threaten maritime shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, driving a global energy crisis.

No AI Autonomy Without Human Accountability

Foreign Policy | Fareed Zakaria

Artificial intelligence developers like OpenAI and Hugging Face face intensifying global pressure to establish human accountability frameworks as autonomous machine capabilities rapidly outpace existing regulatory safeguards. This widening gap between autonomous machine action and human oversight threatens to create systemic operational risks across critical digital and physical infrastructure, potentially undermining national security.

Historically, technological transitions have relied on retrospective governance, but the self-executing nature of modern agentic systems demands real-time intervention capabilities. To address these vulnerabilities, international policymakers and defense agencies are shifting focus from static software compliance to dynamic operational control. This regulatory evolution aims to mandate circuit breakers and human-in-the-loop protocols for high-stakes deployments. Control must keep pace with capability. Ultimately, the trajectory of global AI integration will depend on balancing technological innovation with enforceable legal liability, ensuring that human operators retain final veto power over critical machine decisions in high-risk environments worldwide.

I Planned Military Ops. AI Just Made It My Most Valuable Skill

Newsweek | Jon Licht

Artificial intelligence integration within enterprise technology environments requires constraint-first military planning methodologies to prevent operational drift and system failures. Former Marine Corps infantry officer Jon Licht argues that the disciplined, contingency-focused planning processes drilled into military personnel are highly scarce, critical skills needed to successfully guide AI systems.

This methodology prioritises defining operational boundaries, mapping data models, and challenging assumptions before executing technical builds. Quality instructions depend on human judgment. As AI increasingly transitions from digital platforms into physical domains like robotics and humanoid systems, the demand for domain-specific expertise will intensify. Lived experience in complex environments like factories, hospitals, and emergency response zones will establish the essential guardrails for these autonomous systems. Consequently, organizational success depends on leaders who prioritize strategic problem-solving over mere technical tool adoption to navigate this rapid technological shift, ensuring execution does not outpace thoughtful planning.

Iran and China Create First-of-Their-Kind Autonomous A.I. Influence Campaigns

The New York Times | Sheera Frenkel, Eli Tan, Dustin Volz

Iran, China, and private firms in Israel deployed novel artificial intelligence tactics in September 2026 to launch the first fully autonomous online influence campaigns. By combining powerful Chinese open-source AI models with independent software agents, these actors successfully automated the entire lifecycle of social media manipulation with minimal human oversight.

This technological leap allowed hundreds of AI agents to bypass platform security protocols and establish vast networks of fake accounts. Once active, these automated bots rapidly disseminated politically divisive content across major platforms, including Instagram, Facebook, X, and TikTok. Detection remains extremely difficult. While U.S. intelligence officials and security researchers characterized these initial agentic campaigns as crude, the rapid scaling of the technology has raised significant alarms. The development marks a critical shift from human-curated disinformation to fully automated, machine-driven cognitive warfare, signaling a highly volatile future for global information security.

How a ‘Vampire’ Could Solve the US Navy’s Drone Woes

The National Interest | Stavros Atlamazoglou

The US Navy has selected L3Harris Technologies’ “VAMPIRE” counter-drone system to protect its littoral installations from increasingly lethal unmanned aerial threats. This adaptable, low-cost weapon system fires AGR-20A Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) interceptors to engage incoming targets. It uses advanced sensors to spot, track, and destroy hostile platforms.

Procurement of this modular technology follows lessons from the Ukraine war and Middle Eastern conflicts, where one-way attack drones have devastated critical infrastructure. Drones now dominate modern battlefields. In the Middle East, the IRGC has deployed kamikaze drones against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the vulnerability of naval logistics. To counter this, the Navy is deploying containerized and turreted VAMPIRE variants, including the CASKET and BAT configurations, to safeguard forward operating bases and maritime assets from adversary reconnaissance and strike operations. These systems will be ruggedized to withstand harsh maritime environments.

A fifth face? The evolving threat of nuclear terrorism in the age of artificial intelligence

The Nonproliferation Review

Artificial intelligence integration into non-state actor operations threatens to introduce a 'fifth face' of nuclear terrorism, significantly lowering technical barriers to acquiring or fabricating crude nuclear devices. Large language models and generative design tools enable extremist groups to bypass traditional information controls, accelerating the weaponisation of radioactive materials.

Historically, the international nonproliferation regime focused on securing physical fissile material and restricting access to highly specialized scientific expertise. The threat is no longer purely physical. Democratization of advanced machine learning algorithms disrupts this paradigm by automating complex engineering tasks and optimizing chemical synthesis pathways. This digital shift exposes critical vulnerabilities in physical security systems at civilian nuclear facilities, where AI-driven cyberattacks could sabotage reactor cooling mechanisms. Furthermore, autonomous unmanned systems powered by edge AI could be deployed to bypass traditional perimeter defenses, facilitating the theft of radiological sources. Consequently, the International Atomic Energy Agency faces unprecedented challenges in monitoring decentralized digital threats that elude conventional safeguards.

Pentagon’s secret plan: Reviving Cold War doctrines to lower the threshold for nuclear war

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists | Joe Cirincione

The Pentagon is drafting a secret strategic nuclear review designed to expand battlefield nuclear options and integrate them directly into conventional warfare strategies. This classified initiative, championed by Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby, aims to lower the threshold for nuclear use to manage regional escalation against adversaries like China and Russia.

Historically, the United States unilaterally reduced its tactical nuclear stockpile by 90 percent after 1991, leaving approximately 200 today. However, current procurement plans include deploying the 8-kiloton W76-2 warhead on Trident submarines alongside a new sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N) to re-nuclearize the surface fleet. Nuclear war games consistently escalate to global catastrophe. Critics warn that bypassing Congressional oversight to revive these Cold War-era doctrines will trigger a highly dangerous, multi-trillion-dollar global arms race while failing to address the core security anxieties of democratic allies in Europe and Asia.

Securing the Connective Tissue of the Global Commons: The Indian Ocean Gap

Real Clear Defense | Sue Ghosh Stricklett

The United States and its Quad partners are launching new maritime security initiatives to address critical governance gaps across the Indian Ocean's vital sea lines of communication. This coordinated effort aims to protect global trade routes and undersea telecommunication cables from rising state-sponsored disruption. Historically, the region's vast geography and fragmented maritime jurisdictions have prevented the establishment of a unified multilateral security architecture.

As the People's Liberation Army Navy expands its deployment of intelligence-gathering vessels, securing these maritime corridors has become an operational priority. Chokepoints remain highly vulnerable. To counter these threats, coalition forces are deploying advanced uncrewed surface vessels and acoustic monitoring networks near key transit lanes like the Strait of Malacca. Ultimately, the long-term stability of this global commons will depend on the successful integration of real-time sensor data among littoral states, ensuring rapid response capabilities against asymmetric threats.

Engineering Asia’s Water Tower: Transboundary Governance Challenges of China’s Tibetan Plateau Mega-Projects

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Genevieve Donnellon-May

China is constructing the massive Mêdog Hydropower Station on the Yarlung Tsangpo and proposing the Red Flag River inter-basin transfer project, threatening downstream water security across South and Southeast Asia. These hydraulic mega-projects proceed without robust transboundary governance frameworks, leaving downstream nations highly vulnerable to unilateral upstream flow control.

Beijing's hydro-engineering push is driven by severe domestic crises, including falling groundwater levels in the North China Plain and the immense electricity demands of its green energy transition. While China maintains formal water-sharing treaties with northern neighbours like Kazakhstan and Russia, its arrangements with southern riparian states remain strictly consultative and legally weak. This institutional deficit is compounded by the expiration of the China–India hydrological data-sharing MoU in June 2023. Downstream states now lack critical telemetry. Rapidly melting Himalayan glaciers will further complicate future water attribution, making transparent data-sharing mechanisms an urgent regional necessity.

Silk Cage Webinar Report-VI: Ports, Power, and Political Access: China’s Strategic Grip over Sri Lanka

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Tabita Rosendal, Nilanthi Samaranayake, Ivan Lidarev, Smruti S. Pattanaik, Jagannath Panda, Joel von Rothkirch, Wilhelm Geijer

China is systematically expanding its strategic influence in the Indian Ocean by integrating Sri Lanka's coastal infrastructure into a broader maritime network. This development, highlighted during an August 31, 2026 webinar hosted by the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, leverages both foreign direct investment and state-backed loans to secure critical trade routes.

These investments target commercial development while establishing a dual-use port-and-logistics architecture. Economic and political imperatives overlap. State-owned enterprises drive these projects, focusing on the International Terminal in Colombo Port, Hambantota International Port, and the Colombo Port City financial hub. Ultimately, this multifaceted approach secures Beijing's natural resource and oil imports while altering Sri Lanka's domestic political environment. Consequently, Colombo must navigate complex interactions between local elites, political parties, and external partners to preserve its national sovereignty and balance competing geopolitical interests across the wider Indian Ocean region.

Who Is to Blame for the Massive Death Toll in the Nepal Floods?

The Diplomat | Manju Telor

A catastrophic glacier-linked flood in Nepal on August 26, 2026, killed over 1,400 people and left 6,000 missing, exposing critical vulnerabilities in the region's disaster early warning systems. The disaster began when a glacier on Langtang Lirung fractured, sending a massive debris flow 22 kilometers to Gyirong Port in just seven minutes.

This rapid descent bypassed Nepal's existing river gauges, which only measure water height rather than velocity and were instantly destroyed. The state lacks sovereign satellite infrastructure. Instead, it relies on foreign-hosted tools like the SERVIR-HKH program, which recently lost its USAID funding. Furthermore, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology's budget shrank to 338 million Nepali rupees, a tiny fraction of the 200 billion rupees in flood damages. Ultimately, mitigating future transboundary hazards across the highly vulnerable Himalayan region requires formal, binding data-sharing agreements with China rather than pursuing expensive, nationalistic space programs that fail to address immediate local needs.

The Manufactured War on AI

Real Clear Defense | Frank Filingeri

The United States artificial intelligence infrastructure is facing a coordinated national backlash demanding the total abolition of data centers. This movement threatens to derail American technological supremacy in the global AI race against China. Covert foreign propaganda campaigns and domestic partisan opposition are actively weaponizing local environmental and grid-capacity concerns to stall critical infrastructure development.

While community anxieties regarding power grid strain and water usage have been mitigated through private-sector funding and strict zoning standards, political actors continue to exploit these friction points. Stalling these multi-billion-dollar investments serves a partisan electoral strategy aimed at weakening the current administration's economic momentum. Meanwhile, Beijing amplifies these domestic divisions to induce analysis paralysis and delay American capabilities. Unilateral technological disarmament is the ultimate risk. Consequently, domestic policymakers face growing pressure to counter these foreign-backed narratives to secure the nation's long-term economic and national security future.