A Summit of Equals

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  William A. Reinsch

The recently concluded U.S.-China summit, despite President Trump's declaration of success, yielded unclear outcomes due to the absence of a joint statement and divergent comments. On trade, anticipated progress on the "three B’s" (beans, beef, and Boeing) remains unconfirmed; Trump cited significant agriculture purchases without details, China renewed lapsed U.S. beef export licenses, and a 200-plane Boeing deal is unconfirmed by Beijing and less than expected. Discussions on a Board of Trade, Board of Investment, and AI safety protocols began but produced no agreements. Notably, traditional U.S. complaints like overcapacity, subsidies, and intellectual property theft were not discussed, signaling a U.S. shift towards transactional goals and China's success in avoiding these issues. More significant discussions focused on Taiwan and Iran. On Taiwan, no immediate policy change occurred, but China pressed harder, warning of conflict, while Trump acknowledged discussing U.S. arms sales without a decision. Regarding Iran, Xi Jinping reiterated previous stances on nuclear weapons and the Strait of Hormuz, with China's willingness to act privately unclear. The summit's slogan, "constructive strategic stability," reflects both nations' need to buy time amid challenges, with China viewing its rise as inexorable and the U.S. implicitly acknowledging limited leverage.

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The Coming AI Backlash

Council on Foreign Relations | Chris McGuire

Artificial intelligence (AI) policy will be the most important issue in the 2028 U.S. presidential election, driven by exponentially advancing capabilities, doubling every four months since 2024, leading to models 250 times more powerful by 2028. These advancements will cause significant job losses, as warned by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, and create potential for dangerous misuse, including advanced hacking and biological engineering. AI also enables comprehensive government surveillance without warrants. The U.S. military is already using AI in Iran operations, compressing target identification to seconds, and future conflicts will see fully autonomous combat drones, making U.S. AI leadership critical against China. Public sentiment is largely negative, with only 26 percent of voters having positive feelings. This necessitates a proactive federal policy addressing safe development, equitable economic gains through workforce programs and income support, and maintaining U.S. global AI leadership over China via robust technology protection measures. Deferring serious policymaking risks a reactive, crisis-driven response detrimental to both public safety and U.S. competitiveness.

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In Beijing summit, Trump got what he wanted on Iran, and Xi got what he wanted on Taiwan

Asia Sentinel  |  Toh Han Shih

US President Donald Trump's visit to Beijing from May 13 to 15 yielded significant diplomatic outcomes, as he secured Chinese President Xi Jinping's agreement on two critical geopolitical issues. China concurred with the US position that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened, a vital global energy chokepoint, and that Iran should not possess nuclear weapons, aligning with international non-proliferation efforts. In a reciprocal move, Trump adopted a more robust stance against Taiwanese independence than mainstream Washington, a position highly favorable to Beijing's 'One China' policy. This strategic exchange indicates a transactional approach to US-China relations, where the US gained crucial Chinese support on Middle East security and maritime freedom, while China achieved a significant rhetorical concession on its core sovereignty claim over Taiwan. The agreement suggests a temporary convergence of interests, potentially influencing regional stability in both the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific by managing immediate flashpoints through diplomatic leverage.

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Iran Is Winning the Vibe War

Foreign Policy  |  Peter Benzoni

Iran has emerged as the "internet's main character" in a new era of propaganda, effectively leveraging AI-generated content, Lego diss rap videos, and embassy "shitposts" to shift its global image. This strategic pivot comes despite Iran being widely perceived as a pariah state massacring protesters just 100 days prior. The article highlights Iran's success in this "vibe war" even as the White House, under the Trump administration, attempts similar tactics with its own AI-generated content and combative memes, but fails to achieve similar impact. The analysis suggests that this form of propaganda is most effective when "punching up," a dynamic not applicable to a superpower like the U.S. that is "dropping the bombs." This development signifies a critical shift in the landscape of disinformation, demanding new frameworks for experts to understand and counter state-sponsored influence operations in the age of AI.

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Clearing Mines in the Strait of Hormuz: Q&A with Scott Savitz

RAND  |  Scott Savitz

U.S. airstrikes have recently targeted Iran's naval mine capabilities, reportedly destroying 90 percent of its stockpile, yet the perceived threat of even a few remaining mines in the Strait of Hormuz has paralyzed shipping. Scott Savitz, a RAND senior engineer and mine warfare expert, assesses that Iran has historically focused on mines since the 1980s, possessing thousands of both moored and harder-to-detect influence mines. Clearing the Strait could be quick, taking days, if Iran ceases fire, but could extend to months if mine-hunting ships face attacks, as these assets are slow, predictable, and lack robust self-defense. Savitz emphasizes that the perception of a threat is sufficient to disrupt traffic, citing the Korean War where North Korea's mines stymied a U.S. amphibious attack. The current situation serves as a reminder of mines' disruptive impact, offering lessons for Taiwan's defense against a potential Chinese amphibious invasion by delaying and channelizing forces.

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A New Order for the Gulf States

National Interest  |  Eric Alter

The Gulf states, following the commencement of the Iran War in late February and 40 days of airstrikes across six countries, no longer believe they have a choice other than to develop strategic autonomy for their own defense. Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched offensive operations against Iranian positions and allied militias, permanently altering their claims to neutrality. Proposals for US military withdrawal, contingent on Iranian nuclear constraints and proxy curbs, are critiqued as leaving the region more exposed, with the JCPOA years demonstrating Iran's expanded influence as external pressure decreased. The article highlights the need for Gulf states to build significant military capacity, particularly addressing drone defense gaps exposed in 2019 and confirmed in 2026, requiring shared sensors and unified intercept protocols. Securing the Strait of Hormuz also demands a joint monitoring system with set response thresholds. While the Gulf Cooperation Council lacks coordination for such challenges, accelerating bilateral operational partnerships among willing states are emerging. Genuine strategic autonomy requires an institutional framework capable of assessing verified operational capacity, similar to NATO's development, to ensure a stronger negotiating position with Iran.

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Where Does American Strategy Go From Here?

Council on Foreign Relations | Rebecca Lissner

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is launching its multiyear Future of American Strategy Initiative to fundamentally reevaluate the United United States' global role amidst unprecedented contestation and uncertainty since World War II. This effort acknowledges the diffusion of power, intensifying borderless challenges, and decay of the liberal international order, alongside domestic dissatisfaction and the impact of revolutionary technologies. CFR scholars describe an increasingly contested world marked by new power centers, geopolitical realignments, a fragmenting global economy, and structural disruptors like artificial intelligence, climate change, and demographic shifts, which diminish international cooperation. While Washington retains formidable economic, technological, and military power, it faces domestic constraints including partisan polarization and weakened state capacity, hindering its ability to translate military might into victory. The initiative emphasizes that strength abroad relies on strength at home, seeking diverse perspectives nationwide to forge a prudent and sustainable American strategy for the coming decade.

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Iran Could Be Trump’s Greatest Failure

Foreign Policy  |  Ravi Agrawal

U.S. President Donald Trump had aimed to secure a peace deal between Washington and Tehran via Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week, but the effort failed, marking a significant diplomatic setback. China, along with most countries except Russia, likely desires an end to the conflict, yet Iran’s new leaders appear to be engaging in a strategic game of chicken, exploiting President Trump's perceived desire to de-escalate. Evidence increasingly suggests this ongoing war is proving disastrous for President Trump, the United States, and the global economy, with the pain expected to persist regardless of its eventual resolution. The article questions the ultimate strategic purpose of the current trajectory, highlighting the significant economic and geopolitical costs already incurred and the lack of a clear positive outcome for the U.S. or its allies. This situation is framed as potentially Trump's greatest foreign policy failure, with long-term negative consequences for American influence and global stability.

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Orban’s Fall and Europe’s Rise: The Dawn of a Strange New European Consensus

Foreign Affairs | Ivan Krastev

Hungary's April 12 parliamentary elections saw the crushing defeat of strongman Viktor Orban, leading many moderate and liberal observers in Brussels, Paris, Berlin, and New York to hope for an ebbing of global illiberalism. However, the new Prime Minister, Peter Magyar, won on an antiestablishment wave, which could still benefit populists. Orban's defeat does not signal the end of far-right politics in Europe but rather an end to the illusion of Trumpism as a global movement, as Orban accepted the outcome, reaffirming democratic credentials. This shift signals a new era where the European far right distances itself from Trump, potentially pushing the continent toward a consensus where pro-European elites accept nation-state centrality, and far-right parties view Moscow, Beijing, and Washington, not Brussels, as primary threats. Orban's loss also alters Russia's calculations, as Hungary's veto on 90 billion euros (about $105 billion) for Ukraine is removed, potentially allowing Ukraine to fight for two more years. This increases the risk of more aggressive Russian strategies like cyberattacks. Europe's internal dynamics show a convergence: sovereigntism is here to stay, but the new right is becoming less Euroskeptical, seeing Washington and Moscow as threats, not Brussels.

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Russia’s Push for Digital Sovereignty Yielding Mixed Results

The Jamestown Foundation  |  Luke Rodeheffer

Russia's multi-pronged digital sovereignty initiative, encompassing software, operating systems, hardware, and telecommunications, has yielded mixed results. The Kremlin mandated Critical Infrastructure Organizations (CIOs) replace foreign software and hardware with domestic alternatives by 2030, supported by billions in state investment. Following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, domestic Linux operating system (OS) distributions, notably Astra, expanded significantly, with Astra now controlling over 70 percent of the Russian-made OS market. ALT and Aurora address state-enterprise and mobile technology gaps. However, the push for sovereign hardware faces serious setbacks; Baikal Elektroniks, a primary state recipient, struggles with persistent engineering shortages and over 50 percent chip defect rates in 2025. The Kremlin allocated 250 billion rubles ($3.4 billion) for 2026-2028, following 300 billion rubles ($4.2 billion) from 2022-2025, and considers a new state enterprise with up to one trillion rubles ($13.5 billion) in subsidies for microelectronics. Challenges persist due to raw material access, engineering expertise, and manufacturing capabilities, leading Russia to import sanctioned technology from the People’s Republic of China.

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Ukraine is building a drone army that can defeat Russia

Ynetnews | Raphael Kahan

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a historic first in the war against Russia, where Ukrainian forces captured an enemy position using only unmanned systems, incurring zero casualties. This operation, spearheaded by the Ukrainian-British defense tech startup UFORCE—now a unicorn valued over $1 billion—demonstrates Ukraine's rapid, inexpensive innovation model. Ukraine aims to replace up to 30% of front-line manpower with autonomous technology and eventually achieve 100% robotic logistics, planning to acquire 25,000 unmanned ground vehicles in the first half of the year. This contrasts sharply with the United States, where legal and contractual obstacles, particularly intellectual property rights held by major defense companies, hinder rapid adaptation and field repairs. China, meanwhile, is advancing a "saturated and algorithmic mass" strategy, exemplified by its Atlas drone swarm system and conversion of obsolete fighter jets into expendable suicide drones, posing an economic attrition challenge. Israel's defense industry offers a middle-ground solution with modular robotic systems like Rook and Probot, balancing military standards with operational flexibility. This shift towards software-defined, AI-based systems and "precise and inexpensive mass" marks a new revolution in military affairs.

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Ukraine Has a New War Strategy—and It’s Working

Foreign Policy  |  Paul Hockenos

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky articulated a strategy in March 2025 of “bringing the war back to Russia,” shifting from casualty-intensive territorial offensives to long-range, asymmetric warfare aimed at “strategic neutralization” of Russian assets. This new approach, intensifying throughout the current year, seeks to degrade Russia’s economy, disrupt its military manufacturing capabilities, and undermine civilian morale. The strategy involves striking targets directly within Russia, a significant departure from earlier efforts focused on reclaiming occupied Ukrainian territory, which had incurred substantial costs in blood and treasure. Evidence this spring suggests this strategy is proving effective, potentially altering the battlefield calculus and pressuring Russia towards peace by imposing direct costs on its infrastructure and population. This strategic pivot reflects Ukraine's adaptation to the protracted conflict, leveraging its capabilities to project power deeper into enemy territory and compel a change in Moscow's posture, thereby forcing them into a position where they must ensure security.

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The Jazz Band of Mars: What if the Army’s Shift to Division-Centric Warfighting is Wrong?

Modern War Institute  |  Robert G. Rose, Matthew Revels

The US Army's shift to division-centric warfighting for multidomain operations, outlined in the Army 2030 plan, risks misaligning its force design with its strategic context, particularly against a Chinese joint island landing campaign. This centralized approach, reminiscent of France's interwar "methodical battle" doctrine, prioritizes synchronization and higher-echelon control of intelligence and fires, potentially sacrificing the decentralized flexibility and rapid responsiveness needed to counter strategic surprise. Historical examples from World War I, World War II, and contemporary Ukrainian operations against Russia demonstrate the critical importance of decentralized capabilities, unit cohesion, and responsive fires at lower echelons. Ukrainian forces, for instance, primarily fight at the brigade level, assigning artillery batteries in direct support of infantry battalions for fires within three minutes. The article contends that Army 2030's focus on division-level control and ninety-six-hour targeting processes could lead to slow decision-making and a lack of cohesion, mirroring the French Army's systemic breakdown in May 1940 when confronted by a fluid German Schwerpunkt attack.

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All non-drone militaries are obsolete

Noahpinion  |  Noah Smith

The Ukraine War, following the 2020 Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, has decisively demonstrated that drone warfare renders traditional militaries obsolete, with Ukraine inflicting casualty rates as high as 5 to 1 on Russian forces, largely due to drones. Ukraine's daily FPV drone usage escalated from thousands to approximately 60,000 in the past year. Yaroslav Azhnyuk, CEO of The Fourth Law, highlights drones' supreme cost-effectiveness; a $500 FPV drone can destroy a $5 million Rheinmetall tank and is three orders of magnitude more versatile than a $4,000 artillery shell. AI now enables autonomous drone operation, requiring only smartphone input to identify and engage targets. Traditional defenses like electronic warfare, shotguns, and even $3 million anti-drone lasers struggle against drone swarms. NATO's Hedgehog 2025 exercise in Estonia revealed its forces' unpreparedness, with a Ukrainian team mock-destroying 17 armored vehicles and two battalions in half a day. The U.S. military, focused on expensive platforms, risks a "rude surprise" against a drone-centric adversary, while China's "peerless industrial base" could rapidly scale drone production.

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US soldiers learn to identify drones by sound

Breaking Defense |  Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo

US soldiers are learning to identify various drone types by their distinct acoustic signatures, a skill honed during Project FlyTrap 5.0 in Lithuania in early May 2026. This training, which also includes visual identification of aerial threats, directly incorporates lessons from the Ukrainian battlefield, where forces detect Russian Shahed drones and decoys by sound. Sgt. 1st Class Tyler Harrington, a platoon sergeant for Eagle Troop, 2nd Cavalry Regiment, emphasized the need for soldiers to scan "up and out" and differentiate between one-way attack drones and reconnaissance assets based on their buzz. While not yet formal US Army curriculum, this field experience serves as an introduction. Ukrainian forces, supported by passive acoustic sensor networks and low-cost directional microphones, have developed "muscle memory" for drone sounds, enabling early warning and cueing for small air defense teams. The US Center for Army Lessons Learned recommends adopting a similar acoustic detection approach, particularly along NATO’s eastern flank.

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Speed Not Scale Will Decide the Next War

RealClearWorld  |  Gary Roughead

The traditional view of warfare, grounded in early 20th-century mass and Cold War overmatch, is being fundamentally challenged by the war in Ukraine. Modern conflict demonstrates that technological superiority and scale are less decisive than a military's speed of adaptation. Weapons and systems are rapidly identified and countered, shifting the advantage to forces that learn, iterate, and redeploy new variants faster than opponents. This necessitates a continuous loop of deploy, observe, learn, update, and redeploy, compressing the time between innovation and battlefield effect. Future weaponry must be modular and updatable, akin to software, supported by a distributed, agile industrial base capable of real-time digital coordination and rapid scaling. Platforms like GRAIL operationalize this adaptation loop, linking frontline demands, software-defined systems, and distributed manufacturing into a continuously learning architecture, transforming procurement into a dynamic, data-driven system. Victory will belong to the force that consistently owns this rapid learning and production cycle.

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The Duet of Command: Key Operational Issues for OPCON Transfer

The Diplomat  | Hanbyeol Sohn

The transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) from the United States to South Korea, a process agreed upon in 2006 and structured in 2018 for a Future Combined Forces Command (F-CFC), faces critical operational design challenges. U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) Commander General Xavier Brunson cited Q2 FY2029 as a milestone for this alliance modernization. Key issues include designing an integrated command structure, requiring balanced bilateral consultation processes, seamless C4I integration between U.S. and ROK systems, and optimized coordination with the United Nations Command (UNC) and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). South Korea must also define its independent capability to effectively lead alliance assets, encompassing ISR, U.S. extended deterrence integration, and theater-level control, with objective evaluation methodologies. Furthermore, the strategic scope of the alliance beyond the Korean Peninsula needs explicit definition, particularly regarding U.S. reinforcements and regional contingencies like a Taiwan Strait crisis. Concurrent issues include sustaining combat readiness, evolving the ROK Armed Forces’ command structure, redefining armistice management authority, and strengthening extended deterrence credibility.

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Marco Rubio Aims to Reset U.S.-India Ties in New Delhi

Foreign Policy | Sumit Ganguly

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is embarking on a critical diplomatic mission to New Delhi, India, with the primary objective of resetting the bilateral relationship between the United States and India. This visit, which is expected to include a significant Quad meeting, is anticipated to encounter an "uphill battle," indicating substantial challenges in aligning the strategic interests and overcoming existing friction points between the two nations. The strategic implications of a successful reset are profound, as a robust U.S.-India partnership is considered vital for maintaining a stable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in the context of China's expanding geopolitical and military influence. Rubio's agenda will likely encompass discussions on defense cooperation, economic partnerships, technological collaboration, and regional security architectures, with the Quad meeting serving as a key platform for multilateral coordination. The anticipated difficulties suggest that both Washington and New Delhi may need to address sensitive issues, such as trade disputes, differing stances on international affairs, or human rights concerns, to forge a more cohesive and resilient alliance crucial for countering regional threats and promoting shared democratic values.

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India–Africa Strategic Partnership: Challenges, Potential, and Possible Pathways

Carnegie India | Rajiv Bhatia

India and Africa aim to deepen their strategic partnership, representing a third of humankind today and projected to be 40% by 2050. The India–Africa Forum Summit (IAFS) process, initiated in 2008, experienced a decade-long hiatus after 2015, with the fourth summit now planned for May 2026 in New Delhi. Key challenges include intense competition from China and other middle powers, a relative lack of Indian interest, African instability, geographic distance for West/Central Africa, and insufficient financial resource allocation, exacerbated by global polycrises like COVID-19, the Ukraine war, and the Gulf war. Recalibration requires balancing priorities across political-diplomatic, security-defense, trade, technology, economy, and people-to-people connections. Two focal areas for progress are skilling and human resource development, leveraging Africa's young population, and maritime security/blue economy cooperation, exemplified by the inaugural Africa-India Key Maritime Engagement (AIKEYME) exercise in April 2025. India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar outlined "IA Spirit" as the theme for the fourth IAFS, emphasizing innovation, resilience, and inclusive transformation.

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India’s Role in a Disordered World

Foreign Policy | Shivshankar Menon

India's evolving foreign policy in a multipolar international system likely constitutes the core analysis of an article titled 'India’s Role in a Disordered World'. Such a piece would strategically examine New Delhi's pursuit of strategic autonomy amidst increasing geopolitical competition, particularly its balancing act between major global powers like the United States, China, and Russia. The analysis would probably delve into India's growing economic influence, its ongoing defense modernization efforts, and its diplomatic engagement in various multilateral forums to address challenges such as climate change, regional security, and global supply chain resilience. Furthermore, it would assess India's aspirations to be a net security provider in the Indian Ocean region and its contributions to shaping a more stable, rules-based international order, despite the prevailing global disorder.

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Pakistan's University Professors: No Raise in Five Years, No Pension, No Answer

Brief

Pakistan's Tenure Track System (TTS) university professors have endured a salary freeze since 2021, while their Basic Pay Scale (BPS) counterparts received a cumulative 71% increase, leading to a significant decline in real income due to 38% year-on-year consumer price inflation by May 2023 and an 81% increase in tax burden. The Higher Education Commission (HEC) implemented restrictive policies, including a Deed of Agreement requiring scholars not to protest and barring foreign citizenship, alongside promotion criteria that force social scientists to publish in international Western venues, hindering career advancement for Pakistan-specific research. Despite a 2021 proposal for a 35% salary differential, a 2020 HEC amendment, 2023 task force recommendations, and a March 2025 Islamabad High Court order to disburse Rs1.5 billion, the Finance Ministry has consistently failed to implement salary revisions. This inaction, termed a "position" rather than inertia, undermines Pakistan's substantial investment of PKR 8-20 million per overseas PhD scholar, accelerating brain drain and compromising academic standards. The government's proposed FY 2026-27 budget indicates no salary increases, redirecting fiscal space to income tax cuts.

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China-Russia relations are as strong as ever thanks to Trump

Al Jazeera  |  Leonid Ragozin

Donald Trump's second term policies, despite his pledge to “un-unite” Russia and China, have inadvertently strengthened their alliance, mirroring predecessors' counterproductive strategies. Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Russian President Vladimir Putin shortly after Trump's visit, signaling robust coordination. The ongoing Iran war has significantly bolstered Russo-Chinese ties, particularly due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, making China critically reliant on Russian oil and gas. Bilateral trade surged by nearly 20 percent in the first four months of this year, with plans for expanded energy cooperation, including the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. Chinese technology exports also support Russia's military industry in Ukraine. Both nations are united by a shared perception of the US-led West as a "rogue and fundamentally irrational actor," contrasting sharply with Nixon's successful 1970s detente strategy. US actions in Ukraine and provocative rhetoric on Taiwan further solidify this alliance, with the destruction in Iran serving as a powerful incentive for Moscow and Beijing to coordinate actions and avoid separate deals with Washington.

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Taiwan insists it is sovereign despite Trump’s warning to ‘cool it a bit’

The Telegraph  |  Joe Barnes

Taiwan has asserted its status as a "sovereign and independent" nation following a caution from Donald Trump against officially declaring independence. Taipei's statement, explicitly insisting it is "not subordinate" to China, appears to be a direct response to recent US talks concerning the island's future. This development, published on May 16, 2026, underscores persistent tensions over Taiwan's self-governance and its relationship with Beijing, a critical flashpoint in US-China geopolitical dynamics involving leaders like Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Trump's warning suggests a US desire to manage escalation risks, potentially aiming to prevent actions that could provoke a more aggressive response from China, which views Taiwan as a breakaway province. The situation highlights the delicate balance of power and diplomatic maneuvering required to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific region, with implications for regional alliances and global trade routes.

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America has a serious Chinese spying problem

The Spectator | Ian Williams

Chinese espionage and influence operations on US soil are extensive and intensifying, exemplified by recent cases like Eileen Wang, mayor of Arcadia, pleading guilty to acting as an illegal Chinese agent, and Lu Jianwang's conviction for operating a "secret police station" in New York's Chinatown to target dissidents. These operations, described as the "tip of the iceberg," include intellectual theft from American AI labs via "distillation," smuggling billions in advanced chips despite export controls, and the FBI-exposed "Salt Typhoon" cyber espionage compromising US telecoms and lawful intercept systems. Beijing's activities also involve bringing biological pathogens into the US and operating undeclared biolabs. Experts warn China has "aggressively ramped up" offensive irregular warfare, leveraging clandestine methods and targeting politicians, businesspeople, and academics. Concerns persist regarding US counter-espionage capabilities, citing a politically-driven FBI purge and significant budget cuts to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), potentially hindering America's ability to defend against these escalating threats.

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Beijing’s War Dividend: China’s Asymmetric Gains from the US-Israeli Campaign Against Iran

Small Wars Journal | Tahir Azad

The US and Israeli campaign against Iran has yielded significant asymmetric gains for China, which leveraged the conflict to advance strategic interests without direct intervention. Beijing secured energy leverage through substantial oil stockpiles and strengthened its bargaining position with regional partners, while normalizing yuan-denominated transactions for Strait of Hormuz tolls, challenging dollar dominance. The war accelerated infrastructure entrenchment in Iran, with an estimated $8.4 billion in Chinese investment in 2024, deepening Tehran's reliance. Crucially, the conflict provided a battle-test for China's BeiDou satellite navigation system, demonstrating its operational resilience under Western GPS jamming, a major marketing coup for Global South militaries. The People's Liberation Army harvested invaluable intelligence on US and Israeli missile defense, targeting cycles, and command and control hardening, directly informing Taiwan contingency planning. Diplomatically, Beijing burnished its image as a predictable, lawful power, contrasting with perceived American recklessness, influencing regional states. This positions an energy-insulated, intelligence-enriched China for sharper competition in the Indo-Pacific, impacting India and Pakistan's nuclear deterrence.

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What the Trump-Xi Summit Won’t Solve: A Conversation With Orville Schell

Foreign Affairs  

The summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded a turbulent period in U.S.-Chinese relations, with both leaders touting stabilization despite unresolved major disputes. Dan Kurtz-Phelan, editor of _Foreign Affairs_, interviewed Sinologist Orville Schell, who observed Trump's effusive respect for Xi, a transactional approach that "worked its magic." Chinese officials leveraged Trump's ambiguity, connecting with his "Big leader to big leader" mentality. While Xi proposed a "constructive relationship of strategic stability," critical issues like Taiwan and economic imbalances remain unaddressed, with the U.S. considering $25 billion in arms sales to Taiwan. Schell noted a shift in China's tolerance for "competition" but highlighted their continued strategy to weaponize supply chains, seeking autarky while cultivating foreign dependence for leverage. This dynamic suggests a future of continued competition, with leaders like Trump and Xi driven by "imperial greatness" aspirations, making genuine concessions unlikely.

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The War Against Iran

International Institute for Strategic Studies  |  Emile Hokayem

The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran commenced on February 28, 2026, following a June 2025 12-day conflict that targeted Iran’s nuclear assets. This war reflects decades of diplomatic failure, the culmination of events since October 7, 2023, and a crumbling international order, driven by Iran’s ideological delusions, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security obsession, and US President Donald Trump’s high-risk improvisation. The conflict began with the Israeli Air Force’s decapitation strike against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and top commanders. The joint US–Israeli campaign systematically erased Iran’s conventional capabilities, defense-industrial base, energy facilities, and civilian infrastructure. Despite immense damage, Iran’s system proved resilient, retaliating by directing over 80% of its projectiles at Gulf states—44% against the UAE, 24% against Kuwait, and 10% against Bahrain—damaging critical infrastructure and disrupting maritime traffic. A new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was elected. The war risks Iran accelerating its nuclear breakout, leaving a weakened, militarized, and angry Iranian regime poised to disrupt regional geo-economic and geopolitical relationships, with no clear American victory in sight.

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5 Iran War Scenarios as Trump Weighs Options

Newsweek

President Donald Trump is facing a critical juncture regarding the ongoing ceasefire with Iran, which appears on the brink of collapse after weeks of a testy pause in fighting. Trump has warned Tehran that "the clock is ticking" and threatened "much harder" strikes unless Iran improves its offer for a deal, with a national security team meeting scheduled for Tuesday to discuss military options. Five plausible scenarios are outlined: renewed U.S. strikes for a narrower initial deal, an Iranian compromise driven by economic pain, a managed stalemate with continued shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf states entering as open combatants, or the ceasefire surviving in name while economic pressure quietly damages Iran. The article suggests the fifth scenario, a "War as Ceasefire," is already taking shape, where economic coercion continues without a formal return to war, blurring constitutional lines regarding the War Powers Resolution and potentially becoming Trump's most durable Iran policy.

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What Caused a Midair Crash That Killed Six U.S. Troops in the Iran War?

The Atlantic  |  Nancy Youssef, Shane Harris

On March 12, two U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotankers, functioning as flying gas stations, collided high over Iraq, two weeks into the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. One plane crashed, killing six service members, constituting almost half of U.S. military fatalities in the conflict. U.S. Central Command initially claimed the incident occurred in “friendly airspace” without hostile fire. However, initial intelligence reports, described by two current and one former official, suggested Iran-backed militias fired anti-aircraft weapons in the western Anbar province around the collision time, potentially forcing evasive actions. CENTCOM leaders, citing different, more highly classified information, dismissed these initial reports, asserting militias never fired surface-to-air missiles capable of threatening the aircraft, suggesting detected launches were aimed at ground targets. An Air Force-led investigation is expected to conclude the disaster was an “avoidable mishap” by pilots operating in congested airspace.

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It’s Time the United States Put the ‘Pivot to Asia’ Behind

Real Clear Defense  |  Andrew A. Michta

The Trump administration's decision to halt U.S. rotational deployment to Poland highlights a persistent strategic shortsightedness, exacerbated by the "pivot to Asia" policy initiated in 2012. This "Asia First" strategy, driven by cost concerns after the $8 trillion GWOT, has dangerously underfunded the U.S. military in both Atlantic and Pacific theaters, depleting munitions and reducing deterrence capabilities. Dismissing European NATO allies, despite their rearmament efforts and Europe's role as an indispensable strategic platform, further undermines U.S. global power projection. Attempts to reset relations with Russia based on personal diplomacy rather than structural realities also reflect a poor understanding of Moscow's imperial outlook. Europe remains crucial for U.S. global power projection, offering a cost-effective way to impose costs on Russia and limit China's influence. A revanchist Russia, supported by China, Iran, and North Korea, threatens the post-1945 security system, with immediate implications for American homeland defense via Atlantic routes. The U.S. must refocus on core geostrategic principles, recognizing NATO's importance and the interconnectedness of Atlantic and Pacific theaters.

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Asking the wrong question about Qatar

Asia Times  |  Leon Hadar

The recurring Washington argument over Qatar's alignment reveals US foreign policy's struggle to categorize states outside binary friend/foe frameworks. Qatar, a small peninsula nation of roughly 300,000 citizens, strategically hedges its position, hosting the largest American military installation in the Middle East, Al Udeid Air Base, while also facilitating indirect channels to groups like Hamas and the Taliban at explicit US request. This "outsourced diplomatic ambiguity" allows the US to engage adversaries for purposes such as Afghanistan withdrawal negotiations, post-October 7 hostage talks, and Gaza reconstruction architecture, despite finding some Qatari relationships distasteful. Legitimate concerns exist regarding the Qatar Investment Authority’s enormous footprint in American universities and lobbying firms, and historical terror financing permissiveness, though this has improved markedly since the mid-2010s. The US must define its interests and redlines precisely, evaluating the strategic bargain's costs and benefits rather than questioning Qatar's character.

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Five Clocks, One Empire: A Converging Multipolar World challenging the American Hegemony

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

The ongoing Iran conflict, now prolonged for over two months, has closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a convergence of global economic and strategic pressures challenging U.S. hegemony. Washington faces simultaneous crises: surging Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, with the 30-year JGB yield crossing 4.10 percent, are unwinding the yen carry trade, leading to significant Japanese sales of U.S. Treasuries, including ¥4.67 trillion ($29.6 billion) in Q1. Concurrently, U.S. Treasury yields are climbing, with the 30-year hitting 5.19 percent, driven by inflation (PPI at 6.0 percent, CPI at 3.8 percent) and a $1.2 trillion deficit in H1 FY2026. Global crude oil shortages are imminent as the Hormuz blockade cuts 20 million barrels per day, depleting U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to 384.1 million barrels, nearing critical levels. These dynamics accelerate de-dollarization efforts and threaten global financial stability, with China and other nations reducing U.S. Treasury holdings.

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Iran as Vietnam, Ukraine as Korea

Foreign Affairs  |  Gideon Rose

The Trump administration's intervention in Iran has rapidly mirrored the Johnson administration's Vietnam policy, progressing through entry, escalation, frustrated stalemate, and negotiations within just two months. The article posits that the conflict is now on a trajectory akin to the Nixon administration's extrication efforts, suggesting a swift, unsatisfying deal and a conclusion within another few months, followed by inevitable recriminations. While acknowledging inherent differences between the conflicts in Iran and Vietnam, such as distinct regions and ideologies, the analysis draws a compelling parallel between their strategic dynamics. Furthermore, the piece extends this comparative framework to the Ukraine conflict, likening its potential outcome to the Korean War, thereby suggesting that similar geopolitical engagements often conclude in comparable, often unsatisfactory, ways for intervening powers. This rapid historical compression underscores the article's central argument about the predictable patterns of protracted military interventions.

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How the Hormuz Energy Crisis Is Reshaping US, South Korea, and Japan Energy Cooperation

National Interest  |  Jane Nakano

The Iran War has created significant momentum for the United States, South Korea, and Japan to establish shared strategic oil and LNG reserve arrangements, driven by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Persian Gulf energy infrastructure. South Korea and Japan, highly reliant on Middle Eastern oil (over 70% and 90% respectively) and natural gas (20% and 11% respectively as of 2025), face severe energy security challenges. The United States has emerged as a critical backstop, with crude exports jumping from 4 million barrels per day (mm bpd) in 2025 to 5.2 mm bpd in March and April, and Asia-bound shipments increasing by 65% year-over-year. US naphtha exports to Japan reached their highest since December 2021, and the US became South Korea's largest naphtha supplier. US LNG exports also surged by 15% in March to 11 million tons, with Asia-bound shipments increasing 175% since late February. Trilateral cooperation could involve leasing storage for US oil in South Korea and Japan, offering priority purchasing rights, or establishing virtual strategic gas reserves to enhance economic resilience and US national security interests.

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Does Iran Hold All the Cards in the Strait of Hormuz?

National Interest  |  Paul J. Saunders

Iran's leaders, like Russia before them, are learning that threatening an oil crisis loses leverage once the crisis begins. President Donald Trump claims to have secured Chinese President Xi Jinping's commitment to forgo arming Iran, while the US and Iran engage in a half-hearted cease-fire and talks. The article argues that while a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be costly globally, it would be far more disastrous for Iran, which is already in a dire economic state. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and subsequent cut-off of pipeline gas to Europe demonstrated that Europe adapted, creating a new energy system and diminishing Russia's leverage. The US, with its singular leadership and superior military capabilities compared to Europe's combined forces, would likely harden its position and escalate if Iran forces a global oil crisis, potentially leading to demands for decisive action against Tehran. A Strait of Hormuz shutdown is a card, not a checkmate.

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