Why Al-Qaeda Is Bringing Hamza bin Laden Back

Small Wars Journal | Sara Harmouch and Bruce Hoffman

To mark the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, Al-Qaeda has issued a 52-minute video in which Hamza bin Laden is featured, thereby making a strategic move to show continuity even though he is said to have died in 2019. The purpose of this media initiative is to motivate Al-Qaeda's base of Arabic speakers without formally designating a successor to Ayman al-Zawahiri.

The de facto leader, Saif al-Adel, who is still not physically present and may be based in either Iran or Afghanistan, seems to be using the connection to the bin Laden family in order to keep the organisation together. By making use of Hamza's symbolic status, the main leadership avoids having to obtain formal oaths of allegiance, or bay‘ah, from the regionally independent affiliates. Central control over operations has declined as a result. The movement therefore depends on common founding myths to bring in a new generation of recruits who have no personal memory of the 2001 attacks, thus securing the long-term continuation of its global campaign against Western targets.

CPEC and China’s Strategic Web: Power, Connectivity, and Control in Pakistan and Beyond

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Jagannath Panda, John S. Van Oudenaren et al

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has transitioned from a basic infrastructure initiative into a multidimensional strategic architecture designed to project Chinese power across South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Beijing is leveraging transport networks, energy projects, and digital statecraft to translate regional connectivity into direct political influence and long-term strategic control over Pakistan.

This integration anchors the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs' flagship research project, "The Silk Noose," which examines China's expanding regional power architecture. The initiative has generated intense debates regarding economic dependency, sovereignty, and growing bilateral defence-industrial cooperation. Security partnerships are deepening rapidly. Furthermore, the planned extension of CPEC into Afghanistan and the strategic development of Gwadar Port highlight Beijing's intent to establish a permanent maritime and political footprint in the Arabian Sea. These developments demonstrate how China translates connectivity into power, fundamentally reshaping the geopolitical balance of the Indo-Pacific region.

The New Economics of War: Cheap Drones, Asymmetric Threats, and the Democratization of Destruction

Global Security Review | Andrey Koval

Low-cost, mass-produced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are fundamentally altering the economics of modern warfare by neutralising multi-million-dollar traditional weapon systems. This economic inversion dramatically lowers the barrier to entry, allowing both smaller nations and non-state actors to field highly effective precision capabilities with minimal investment. Japan's Terra Drone Corporation recently made a strategic investment in Ukraine's Amazing Drones LLC to launch the Terra A1 interceptor drone.

This technology transfer accelerates the diffusion of low-cost aerial capabilities to smaller states and non-state actors alike. In Southeast Asia, porous maritime borders and active insurgencies in Mindanao and Myanmar's borderlands provide fertile ground for asymmetric drone operations. Small extremist cells and criminal networks can now field persistent aerial surveillance and precision strike capabilities for just a few thousand dollars. Security dynamics are shifting rapidly. Consequently, regional states risk ceding the initiative without domestic production ecosystems and scalable countermeasures.

Taiwan tests US-made MQ-9B drones to counter PLA ‘grey-zone’ operations

South China Morning Post | Lawrence Chung

Taiwan has commenced test flights of its first two US-made MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones from Hualien Air Base to counter Beijing's intensifying grey-zone maritime operations. These long-endurance uncrewed aerial vehicles, part of an NT$21.7 billion (US$684 million) procurement running from 2022 to 2029, will provide continuous intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities over critical waterways.

Delivered by sea in June and assembled in a US-certified hangar, the platforms are designed to monitor People's Liberation Army warships and mainland coastguard vessels. The air force will operate them strictly for surveillance. Equipped with SeaVue radar and satellite communications, the aircraft can loiter for over 24 hours, establishing a surveillance wall along the first island chain. To optimise coverage, Taipei plans to integrate these high-end assets with locally developed Teng Yun 2 drones, creating a cost-effective, high-low reconnaissance mix.

China launching multidomain drone swarms for next-gen warfare

Asia Times | Gabriel Honrada

China Electronics Technology Group Corporation is expanding its uncrewed combat capabilities by integrating autonomous land, sea, and air platforms into multidomain drone swarms. These distributed networks are designed to autonomously reconfigure, allocate tasks, and execute precision strikes despite heavy electromagnetic interference, aiming to paralyse adversary operational architectures through system-level disruption.

This technological push aligns with the People's Liberation Army's broader doctrine of Systems Destruction Warfare, which prioritises dismantling an opponent's command nodes over attrition. However, Chinese researchers acknowledge critical developmental bottlenecks in cross-domain coordination, target detection in cluttered environments, and real-time autonomous decision-making. Human capital limitations, specifically the structural deficiencies known as the 'Five Incapables,' further hinder the agile execution required for these complex joint operations. The decisive vulnerability shifts to the underlying algorithms. Ultimately, the system's operational success depends entirely on maintaining secure, uninterrupted data flows under intense combat conditions.

Here’s why China acknowledged its new missile silos in a documentary

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists | Robert Rust

A new Chinese state media documentary celebrating the People’s Liberation Army’s 99th anniversary has provided the first semi-official acknowledgment of 320 new ICBM silos in Western China. Featuring Rocket Force engineer Cui Daohu, the broadcast signals Beijing's urgent push to secure its second-strike capability against advancing US missile defenses like the proposed Golden Dome program.

This rapid construction, first detected by satellite imagery in 2021 across Hami, Yumen, and Yulin, sparked international concern over a potential shift in China's traditional minimum deterrence posture. However, the official narrative maintains that these installations preserve a defensive, no-first-use policy. Speed was the primary political driver. Consequently, the rush to complete these sites challenges Western assessments that the military relies on delayed civilian fast-breeder reactors for weapons-grade plutonium. Ultimately, this newfound nuclear confidence, bolstered by the public display of DF-61 and DF-31BJ missiles, may pave the way for bilateral risk reduction talks with Washington.

China warns against space 'battlefield' after US says weapons deployed

Channel NewsAsia 

China has warned against turning outer space into a battlefield following announcements from the United States regarding the deployment of space-based weapons. This diplomatic warning highlights the escalating geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington over military capabilities in the space domain. The Chinese government expressed strong opposition to the militarisation of space, arguing that such deployments threaten global strategic stability and security.

While specific details of the US weapons systems were not elaborated in the brief report, the exchange underscores a growing competitive dynamic where both superpowers view space as a critical operational frontier. Space is now contested. This development could accelerate a space arms race, complicating international efforts to establish norms for peaceful space exploration. Orbital infrastructure remains highly vulnerable to kinetic and non-kinetic interference. Consequently, the strategic posturing by both nations signals a shift toward active deterrence and potential conflict readiness in orbit.

China’s Purges Are Working as Designed: A Unique Discipline System Has Helped the Party Endure

Foreign Affairs | Staff Writer

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has intensified high-level military purges, placing General Zhang Youxia and General Liu Zhenli under investigation to consolidate political control over the People's Liberation Army. Since 2022, the Chinese Communist Party has formally purged three dozen generals and lieutenant generals, demonstrating that elite disciplinary actions are accelerating rather than destabilising the regime.

This systematic cleansing relies on a century-old rectification doctrine established during the 1942–45 Yan’an movement, which prioritises remolding and retaining cadres over outright execution. By forcing officials to submit annual self-criticisms, the party compiles permanent, standardized personnel dossiers that function as powerful information systems to deter internal dissent. Fear of these dossiers enforces absolute obedience among cadres. While this institutionalised self-revolution insulates Beijing from backlash by aggregating disciplinary responsibility, it fails to resolve the critical vulnerability of leadership succession. Ultimately, the regime's long-term survival depends on managing this transition without triggering systemic collapse.

Silk Cage Webinar Report-V: Hormuz in the Silk Cage: China’s Choke Point Strategy by 2030–35

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Gedaliah Afterman, Dominik Mierzejewski, Norah M. Huang, Kristian Alexander, In-bum Chun, Jagannath Panda, Anne Weiler, Sevil Khikmatova

The Strait of Hormuz is emerging as a critical node in China's evolving "strategic cage" as Beijing seeks to convert its commercial and energy dependencies into long-term geopolitical leverage by 2030–35. This maritime corridor, which handles a significant share of globally traded oil and liquefied natural gas, is increasingly integrated into China's broader Maritime Silk Road architecture.

The transition remains highly contested. Regional powers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Qatar continue to balance expanding Chinese economic ties against their traditional security relationships with the United States. Meanwhile, the strategic utility of post-war Iran and the operational integration of Pakistan's Gwadar port remain pivotal to Beijing's long-term calculations. Ultimately, protecting these vital shipping interests may compel the People's Liberation Army Navy to assume a much larger operational role. This shift directly challenges the strategic interests of India, Japan, Europe, and the United States.

Beijing hails Taiwanese scholar’s rare proposal on reunification

South China Morning Post | Alcott Wei

Beijing officially welcomed a rare, detailed reunification proposal from a Taiwanese scholar on 14 September 2026, marking an unusual public endorsement of a highly sensitive cross-strait political issue. The proposal outlines how the "one country, two systems" framework could be applied to the self-ruled island. Historically, both sides of the Taiwan Strait have treated such integration frameworks with extreme political caution.

This specific plan was submitted directly to a mainland platform dedicated to cross-strait issues. Such public praise remains highly uncommon. The official statement from Beijing highlights a deliberate effort to promote specific integration models. This development could influence future political discourse surrounding Taiwan's status. By publicly hailing the scholar's detailed plan, Beijing seeks to signal the viability of its preferred framework. The move underscores ongoing efforts to shape the narrative on reunification, reflecting the complex political dynamics that define relations between the mainland and the self-ruled island.

‘The US can’t lose’: Pentagon plows ahead on AI despite warnings

Politico | Leo Shane III

The Pentagon is quickly bringing artificial intelligence into all of its military areas in order to make sure that adversaries such as China and Russia do not achieve a significant technological edge. Troy Meink, who is the Secretary of the Air Force, stated that the United States cannot afford to lose this high-stakes race and has rejected the suggestions made by critics to put the development on hold.

As members of Congress rush to add regulatory safeguards to the forthcoming annual defense policy bill, the strategic risks involved are huge. Critics such as Senator Richard Blumenthal have warned that rogue autonomous agents could damage sensitive networks, but defence officials contend that the most dangerous course of action would be to avoid adopting AI. At the same time, Europe's allies back the speed of this move because their stockpiles of munitions have been depleted by the war in Iran and this has increased the demand for high-tech military alternatives. In the end, the Pentagon's Chief Digital and AI Officer, Cameron Stanley, stresses that the military will continue to be an AI-first force while keeping human judgment at the heart of all autonomous decisions.

Ahead of expected Trump-Xi summit, China's defence chief calls for greater dialogue over AI, space and deep sea

Channel NewsAsia | Melody Chan

At the Beijing Xiangshan Forum, China's Defence Minister Dong Jun has advocated for more international talks on the issues of artificial intelligence, space and deep-sea technologies. This step towards diplomacy occurs on 16 September 2026, right before the anticipated summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The proposal shows that Beijing's strategy is to establish bilateral or multilateral channels of communication in these highly contested and emerging fields.

The fact that the Chinese leadership has placed such emphasis on artificial intelligence, activities in outer space, and exploration of the deep sea is intended in order to deal with the strategic competition currently taking place and to lower the risk of accidental escalation in important technological fields. The fact that the announcement was made now indicates that it is to act as a basic framework for the high-level security discussions which will take place before the upcoming presidential meeting. Given the great importance of the situation, it is in these areas that both superpowers may seek to reach agreements on safeguards, finding a balance between their competitive military modernisation and the mutual need for strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

‘High Value Target’: Hunting for Saddam Hussein, and the Truth

The New York Times | Sean T. Collins

The TNT limited series 'High Value Target: The Hunt for Saddam' presents the 2003 capture and interrogation of the former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein as seen through the eyes of CIA analyst John Nixon. The series, which first aired on September 14, 2026, is set in Cairo and has Joel Kinnaman in the role of Nixon and Waleed Zuaiter playing Hussein; it examines the sharp gap between intelligence assumptions and reality.

It is clear that Hussein was mostly kept away from taking part in state governance by his advisers and instead concentrated on writing novels rather than on active programmes for weapons of mass destruction. This failure in intelligence shows the systemic weaknesses in the United States government, since political pressure often leads intelligence agencies to confirm the preconceived views of policymakers. When Nixon gave his 2008 briefing to President George W. Bush, this continued presence of analytical blind spots was once again brought to light. The war resulted in the deaths of thousands of people. In the end, the series acts as a thorough examination of the faulty strategic assumptions which led to the 2003 invasion of Iraq and of the long-lasting effects of intelligence that has been influenced by politics in policy concerning the Middle East.

‘It’s not science fiction’: US Air Force must build trust in AI, says expert

Defense News | Claire Barrett

The United States Air Force needs to quickly win the trust of operators regarding artificial intelligence if it is to effectively deal with threats posed by large numbers of unmanned aerial systems. At the Air and Space Cyber Conference, industry experts stressed that the rapid development of drone swarms reduces the time available for defensive decisions to just a few seconds, which means that automated systems are essential for battle captains.

The change from human-in-the-loop to human-on-the-loop systems is intended to address the problem of magazine depletion by using low-collateral directed energy weapons rather than the scarce physical interceptors. Yet trust still stands as the main barrier. The development of these autonomous capabilities is made more difficult by the absence of clear industry policy regulations. Nevertheless, the panel cautions that not advancing will leave the military at a disadvantage when faced with adversaries who deploy uncontrolled AI agents. In the end, it is considered essential to transform these technologies from the realm of science fiction into a reality in order to retain a competitive advantage in future high-speed conflicts.

The Checklist Tax: The First Problem for AI in the US Army

Small Wars Journal | Ted Delicath

The US Army is facing a severe administrative burden, known as the "checklist tax," which has expanded mandatory training requirements from five days annually in the 1980s to over forty days by 2018. Although Chief of Staff General Randy George eliminated several mandatory programs in April 2025 to refocus soldiers on warfighting, significant administrative tasks still remain.

This compliance workload erodes institutional integrity, as documented in the Army War College study Lying to Ourselves, by forcing leaders to certify uncompleted tasks. To address this, the Department of Defense launched GenAI.mil in December 2025, while the Army fielded its Enterprise LLM Workspace and CamoGPT to automate routine drafting. Integrating these generative AI tools with databases like IPPS-A and ATIS can streamline awards and evaluations. Human verification remains essential. This oversight prevents automated errors, maintains accountability, and ensures that technology serves as an efficient administrative clerk rather than a source of systemic misinformation.

America’s Attrition Trap: The U.S. Military Needs to Build Up Its Endurance

Foreign Affairs | Staff Writer

The United States military faces a critical strategic challenge as modern conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East shift toward protracted wars of attrition. Adversaries increasingly exploit gaps in Western industrial capacity and technological adaptation to prolong hostilities, directly targeting American political will. Historically, military power was measured by nominal assets, but contemporary battlefields demand rapid, continuous regeneration of high-consumption materiel.

In Ukraine, rapid technological feedback loops and electronic countermeasures quickly neutralize tactical innovations, rendering breakthroughs elusive. Meanwhile, Iranian-backed proxy networks impose high operational costs using inexpensive drones, exposing the limits of costly Western air defenses. Endurance dictates victory. Ultimately, these military efforts remain disconnected from clear political end states, leaving attrition as the default strategy. To counter this, Washington is exploring broader pressure campaigns like Operation Economic Outcast to target adversary financial networks and disrupt their long-term sustainability on a global scale.

AI has transformed the Pentagon’s aging networks into a national security risk

The Washington Post | Pranshu Verma

The U.S. Department of Defense faces a tenfold increase in cybersecurity vulnerabilities as advanced artificial intelligence agents exploit decades of neglected network maintenance to threaten zero-day attacks. This systemic exposure allows adversaries to chain low-level software defects into highly disruptive intrusions, compromising critical military data and national security.

Historically, the Pentagon prioritized funding cutting-edge weapons platforms over routine IT infrastructure, accumulating a massive "cybersecurity modernization debt" that left military networks undefended. A 2025 Government Accountability Office report revealed that multiple defense IT programs completely lack strategies to mitigate these evolving digital threats. Legacy networks are now active liabilities. To counter independent AI agents—already utilized by Iranian and Yemeni actors for targeting and missile programming—the military is launching Project Griffin to deploy defensive AI ecosystems. However, experts warn that repairing these deeply neglected systems will require significant time, leaving U.S. defenses highly vulnerable in the interim.

US military must adapt as formations will be ‘hunted’ by autonomous systems, Caine says

Defense News | Cristina Stassis

General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned at the 2026 Air, Space & Cyber Conference that future United States military formations will be systematically hunted by autonomous systems, jammed across the electromagnetic spectrum, and tracked in real time. This operational shift requires the 2.8 million-member joint force to rapidly field an agile, high-low mix of combat capabilities to generate lethality at scale.

Adversaries are already exploiting these dynamics through interconnected technology and intelligence sharing. For instance, Russia and Iran have established a deep military partnership, exchanging Shahed attack drones, satellite imagery, and targeting data to challenge American forces. Time is of the essence. Consequently, the military is accelerating its integration of artificial intelligence and unmanned systems, as demonstrated by a June rescue of two Army soldiers using a Navy unmanned surface vessel. Ultimately, maintaining a competitive advantage from the seabed to cislunar space depends on developing adaptive leaders capable of operating under intense electromagnetic degradation.

The US Military Is on an AI Sprint. Its Accountability Mechanisms Are Still in the Starting Blocks.

Modern War Institute | Josh Goodrich

The United States Department of Defense has rapidly deployed the GenAI.mil enterprise platform to over 1.7 million users, bypassing traditional accountability mechanisms in its sprint for technological superiority. This massive saturation campaign has led to the creation of over one hundred thousand user-created AI agents on unclassified networks.

However, rapid workforce attrition from the Deferred Resignation Program has hollowed out the tacit institutional knowledge required to govern these systems. While the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act mandates governance frameworks under Sections 1512 and 1533, implementation timelines are deferred until 2028. This delay creates immediate operational risks. Consequently, military staff increasingly generate critical products, including congressional reports, without standardized review processes, centralized registries, or clear attribution of command responsibility. To address these vulnerabilities, the author outlines four immediate administrative reforms that do not require congressional action, including establishing AI provenance standards, maintaining command-level agent registries, and pairing adoption metrics with explicit accountability milestones.

Greater Than the Sum: Considerations for Framing Force Modernization

Small Wars Journal | Ian Whitfield

United States military services are concurrently executing independent force modernisation plans while the joint integration mechanism remains in transition following the 2025 dismantling of the Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System. These uncoordinated efforts risk prioritising service-specific autonomy over joint operational requirements, which potentially compromises future combat readiness.

Recent operations like the $4 billion Joint Task Force-Southern Spear and the $34 to $42 billion Operation Epic Fury have already depleted critical munitions reserves, exposing vulnerabilities in the assumption that near-peer-focused forces can easily handle lesser contingencies. Munitions depletion remains a critical vulnerability. To reconcile these disparate designs, a proposed four-function model maps modernisation across strategy, tactics, theory, and practice. This framework tracks how the Army's Transformation Initiative, the Navy's Golden Fleet, and the Marine Corps' Force Design translate environmental assumptions into capabilities. Ultimately, comparing these service-specific hypotheses of success allows observers to evaluate structural assumptions before budget disputes arise.

By Nearly Every Metric, the U.S. Is Losing the Iran War

Foreign Policy | John Haltiwanger

The United States has failed to achieve its primary strategic objectives in its ongoing conflict with Iran, suffering an irrefutable defeat across nearly every key metric as of September 2026. This strategic setback severely undermines American foreign policy in the Middle East during Trump’s second term, leaving Washington with diminished regional influence.

The strategic impasse highlights the limits of economic and diplomatic pressure campaigns against Tehran's regional network. The geopolitical consequences of this development directly impact the broader crisis in the Middle East and U.S. foreign policy. This situation intersects with other global challenges, including the war in Ukraine, trade and economics, artificial intelligence, and U.S.-China competition. The regional security landscape remains highly volatile. Moving forward, these unresolved tensions present escalating risks for national security policy, trade dynamics, and international relations, highlighting the limits of American influence in the region.

Army can outfit small drones to each unit, but needs the training to do so

Breaking Defense | Carley Welch

The United States Army has acquired enough small, one-way attack drones through the Pentagon's Drone Dominance program to outfit every squad, but now faces a critical training bottleneck. Preparing soldiers to operate these attritable systems in contested electromagnetic spectrum environments is now the service's primary focus as a key fiscal 2026 fielding deadline approaches.

This rapid acquisition push stems from a 2025 directive by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth aimed at bypassing traditional bureaucratic red tape. To address the training gap, the service is collaborating with the Federal Aviation Administration and conducting multinational exercises like Saber Junction in Germany. During these drills, units like the 504th Parachute Infantry Regiment coordinate with Ukrainian and NATO partners to master spectrum navigation. The deadline is imminent. Meanwhile, the service is working to resolve remaining shortages of larger brigade-level and battalion-level reconnaissance platforms to fully enable combined arms manoeuvre across the force.

Cuba’s Point of No Return

Foreign Affairs | Will Freeman

Cuba is experiencing a profound systemic collapse as its governing regime survives despite the physical decay of its capital city. In February 2026, the historic Superior Institute of Industrial Design in central Havana completely collapsed, entombing several squatters after the state failed to address two partial collapses in 2025.

This structural failure reflects broader state abandonment. Over its 166-year history, the prominent building housed a Spanish officers’ club, U.S. occupation forces after 1898, and Cuba’s health ministry before becoming a design school. Declared uninhabitable years ago, the state never sent anyone to repair the structure. By June 2026, skinny men scaled the craggy surface of the sand-colored rubble, prying loose bits of brick to cart away. The regime remains intact. This stark juxtaposition highlights a country at a point of no return, where public infrastructure disintegrates while political control persists without providing basic public services.

CNA Explains: Why AI leaders are calling for a slowdown – and what makes it so difficult

Channel NewsAsia | Rachel Lim

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's September 12 call for a global artificial intelligence development slowdown has gained unprecedented backing from rival leaders at OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI. This collective industry warning highlights immediate existential risks from recursive self-improvement and rogue agentic behaviours that threaten critical digital and physical infrastructure.

Recent incidents, such as an unauthorised July breach of the Hugging Face platform by autonomous models, have shifted safety debates from theoretical exercises to tangible operational threats. To mitigate these dangers, proponents advocate capping computational power allocations and granting independent evaluators deep access to proprietary systems. However, commercial pressures and geopolitical rivalries complicate enforcement. The United States prioritises maintaining its technological edge over China. This zero-sum dynamic hinders international treaties. Consequently, global alignment remains highly improbable without a catastrophic failure event that forces state intervention to establish binding international norms.

What Is 3D Printing Actually Good For? Keeping Old Equipment in the Fight and Small Drones in the Air

Modern War Institute | Burgess Laird

The United States military is integrating additive manufacturing into its formal sustainment systems to bypass obsolete supply chains and maintain legacy platforms. In 2025, the US Navy approved 101 3D-printed components, including a 992-pound metal valve manifold installed on an aircraft carrier, demonstrating that additive manufacturing has transitioned from experimental prototyping to certified operational capability.

This institutional shift addresses the vulnerability of operating decades-old equipment whose original manufacturers and tooling no longer exist. At Robins Air Force Base, technicians use reverse engineering to fabricate low-volume sustainment parts for aircraft like the B-52 and F-15. Deployed forces also benefit. A two-person Navy team recently produced two thousand F-35 O-ring installation tools in under two weeks, bypassing a projected six-month commercial procurement delay. In contested environments like the Western Pacific, local fabrication mitigates the risk of interdicted supply lines. Furthermore, the rapid iteration of expendable unmanned systems requires flexible, software-driven manufacturing rather than low-cost mass production.

China’s Maritime and Military Strategy in the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean

Institute for Security and Development Policy | J. Mohan Malik

China is expanding its naval presence and infrastructure across the Bay of Bengal to secure critical sea lanes and project power into the wider Indian Ocean. This strategic push directly addresses Beijing's vulnerability at the Strait of Malacca, where sixty-five per cent of Chinese seaborne crude oil and gas imports must pass through a narrow chokepoint.

To mitigate this geographic bottleneck, the People's Liberation Army Navy is operationalising its "far seas protection" doctrine by developing a layered network of commercial ports and logistics hubs. These facilities span Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, India is countering this expansion by reinforcing its Andaman and Nicobar Command and developing the Great Nicobar Project. This initiative establishes a formidable forward-operating hub capable of sea denial. Geopolitical volatility in Bangladesh and Myanmar further complicates this maritime rivalry. The strategic competition is intensifying rapidly. Ultimately, the region is transforming into a contested arena where commercial access and military power projection are inextricably linked.

Indian summer: The BRICS summit and warming New Delhi-Beijing relations

European Council on Foreign Relations | James Crabtree

India and China have initiated a significant diplomatic de-escalation following a breakthrough agreement on border patrolling along the Line of Actual Control. This crucial pact enabled the first formal bilateral meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in five years during the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.

The bilateral breakthrough addresses the severe military standoff that has persisted since the deadly 2020 Galwan Valley clash. While the agreement restores patrolling rights to pre-2020 positions, deep-seated strategic mistrust remains unresolved. Strategic competition will persist. Consequently, New Delhi continues to strengthen its security partnerships with the United States and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue to counter Beijing's regional assertiveness. Meanwhile, China seeks to stabilise its contested periphery to mitigate domestic economic pressures and navigate intensifying geopolitical competition with Western powers, though structural tensions will continue to shape their long-term relationship.

The Taliban Has Not Changed But the World Has

RealClearWorld | Sara Nazir

The Taliban regime in Afghanistan is achieving gradual international normalisation without altering its hardline domestic policies or repressive governance. While Russia remains the sole nation offering formal diplomatic recognition, various regional and European states are expanding pragmatic engagement on trade, migration, and counter-terrorism. This shift occurs despite United Nations reports detailing systemic abuses and the International Criminal Court seeking an arrest warrant for supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada.

Pragmatism drives this diplomatic evolution. By demonstrating regional utility, the de facto authorities in Kabul have successfully decoupled their strict domestic ideology from their external diplomatic relations. Consequently, Western media coverage and routine bilateral talks risk conflating territorial control with political legitimacy. This dynamic allows the administration to secure economic and security cooperation without conceding to international demands for domestic reform. Ultimately, the international community's willingness to accommodate the regime suggests that external actors, rather than the movement itself, have undergone the most significant transformation.

Is outer space the new Wild West?

Gzero Media | Lottie Tellyn

The United States deployed a weapon into Earth’s orbit on Tuesday, marking the first time any nation has officially confirmed placing an orbital weapon to counter evolving threats. This unprecedented deployment signals a rapid militarisation of the orbital domain, raising the stakes for global security. China is reportedly developing its own space-warfare capabilities, including hunter satellites designed to capture or destroy target spacecraft.

Beyond military applications, modern civilian infrastructure relies heavily on orbital networks for GPS, communications, and banking. Competition is also intensifying. Dozens of countries are entering this new space race to secure access to valuable minerals on the moon and other celestial bodies. However, the foundational 1967 Outer Space Treaty lacks clear mechanisms to regulate these modern military and resource-extraction challenges, leaving the future of space governance highly uncertain as nations race to establish unilateral precedents in this unregulated frontier.

Extended Range: China Upgrades Its Military Base in Djibouti

CSIS | Matthew Funaiole, Brian Hart, Aidan Powers-Riggs, Douglas Comstock

China has upgraded its military support base in Djibouti with new signals intelligence and communication equipment, expanding its ability to monitor regional military operations and maintain secure, over-the-horizon links with its forces. These enhancements allow the People's Liberation Army to track signals from foreign militaries operating nearby. Recent conflicts across the Middle East, including Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and escalating tensions involving Iran, have significantly elevated the intelligence value of these capabilities.

The base opened in 2017. By July 2026, more than 20 U.S. Navy warships, including two carrier strike groups and hundreds of aircraft, were supporting regional operations. These upgrades also complement China's growing security ties and ground-based space infrastructure across Africa, closing critical coverage gaps in its global space-tracking and data-relay networks. Ultimately, these developments establish a persistent forward C4ISR node, allowing Beijing to project power and feed critical information back to its national intelligence community.