Russia’s priorities in Afghanistan are counterterrorism and commercial deals. Its larger ambitions on corridors and mediation depend on Chinese approval.

National Interest | Staff Writer

Russian diplomatic and intelligence activity in Central and South Asia has escalated through high-level security visits to Kabul, Islamabad, and Tehran. Moscow aims to contain regional threats from ISIS-K along Tajikistan’s 1,350-kilometre border while expanding economic ties with Taliban-led Afghanistan following formal recognition in July 2025. This security push leverages historical counterterrorism relationships and Moscow's established posture at Tajikistan's 201st military base to secure Central Asia's southern flank.

Commercial trade expanded 150 percent in early 2026. However, severe financial and logistical constraints restrict Russia's broader economic ambitions in the region. The proposed $8.2 billion, 640-kilometre trans-Afghan railway project lacks required capital, while Iran has delayed construction on the critical 160-kilometre Rasht-Astara railway line until late 2026. Furthermore, Russian corridor initiatives remain dependent on Chinese approval and coordination with Beijing's $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Moscow offers actionable intelligence capabilities to regional partners, yet structural bottlenecks and Chinese dominance fundamentally constrain its independent reach across Eurasia.

The Military Is Not The Route To Peace In Myanmar – Analysis

Eurasia Review | Fiona Raval

Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing faced an immediate rejection of his April 2026 peace offer after Ethnic Armed Organisations ignored the 31 July deadline, cementing a complete collapse of regime-led negotiations. This failure underscores deep mistrust stemming from post-2021 military coup violence that has claimed over 100,000 lives and displaced 5.2

million citizens. Decades of centralisation by the Tatmadaw have systematically undermined power-sharing promises originally enshrined in the 1947 Panglong Agreement. Trust evaporated further as regime airstrikes and majoritarian policies violated the 2015 National Ceasefire Agreement. Parallel governance structures now flourish. Non-state ethnic forces maintain autonomous administrations, with the Arakan Army in Rakhine and the United Wa State Army in Shan State controlling key territory. Ongoing regime violence, including 71 civilian deaths in May 2026, makes unmediated dialogue unviable, prompting calls for ASEAN to institute mediated negotiations with strict internal and regional accountability metrics.

China’s defence conglomerates: temporary troubles?

IISS | Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Meia Nouwens

China’s defence state-owned enterprises NORINCO, CASC, CASIC, and CSGC experienced significant real-term revenue declines between 2019 and 2025 despite Beijing increasing overall defence spending by 32% to USD273 billion in 2026. This unexpected financial contraction threatens to temporarily disrupt arms procurement pipelines for the People’s Liberation Army across critical Indo-Pacific operational sectors.

Structural pricing reforms introduced by the Central Military Commission in 2019 forced state-owned conglomerates into competitive tendering and price inquiries, sharply reducing unit profit margins previously guaranteed under cost-plus contracting models. High-level anti-corruption purges further disrupted contracting. Senior executives across multiple aerospace and electronic warfare firms were purged. Nevertheless, military revenues are projected to recover under the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan covering 2026–30. Expanding defense export access across Asia provides an additional financial buffer as Aviation Industry Corporation of China secures high-profile J-10CE fighter deliveries to Uzbekistan, Bangladesh, and Indonesia.

They Won’t Say It Out Loud, but Asian Leaders Are Happy About the Midterms

Council on Foreign Relations | Joshua Kurlantzick

Following the Democratic Party’s November 2026 sweep of both houses of the U.S. Congress, Asian leaders privately anticipate a stabilization of American foreign policy and a potential wind-down of the war against Iran. Persian Gulf energy disruptions have severely impacted Asian markets dependent on oil and liquefied natural gas imports.

This electoral shift increases political pressure on President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Vice President JD Vance explicitly attributed the Republican defeat to the ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, Congressional momentum is expected to reinforce military assistance to regional partners, including a pending $14 billion arms package for Taiwan. Asian allies remain relieved. However, executive authority over foreign policy leaves it uncertain whether legislative pressure will force an actual shift in military operations. The incoming Democratic-led legislature will additionally demand stricter export restrictions on Chinese artificial intelligence technologies, setting a tougher legislative line on Beijing.

The United States and its allies need a more coordinated anti-Houthi strategy to counter a Russo-Chinese threat to the region.

The National Interest | Bridget Toomey

Houthi forces in Yemen are conducting sustained missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia and Red Sea commercial shipping while drawing on expanding multi-state military support. Iran supplies advanced munitions, including anti-ship ballistic missiles and Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile components, alongside operational targeting support. Moscow and Beijing reinforce this axis by delivering satellite intelligence, transferring dual-use tech components, and shielding the group diplomatically at the United Nations.

This external backing enables the insurgent movement to sustain high-intensity maritime and land-based strike operations despite international sanctions. Western responses suffer from fractured coordination. While Washington supplies targeting intelligence and London provides aerial refueling to Riyadh, the absence of a unified command mechanism severely limits coalition counter-measures. Moscow and Beijing actively leverage these operational divides to erode American geopolitical influence across the Middle East. Without a synchronized multinational operational framework, neutralizing Houthi strike networks remains unachievable.

Building On Progress In China–USA Talks On AI – Analysis

Eurasia Review | Lora Saalman, Fei Su

United States President Donald J. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping established a bilateral artificial intelligence incident hotline during their 24 September 2026 Washington summit, setting a November 2026 deadline for follow-on technical dialogues. The high-level meeting prioritized direct bilateral engagement and extensive industry representation over past multilateral sideline formats.

Over twenty technology executives attended the summit state dinner alongside senior economic officials. A key friction point remains terminology. Washington adopts the term "super intelligence" to emphasize future risks of losing human control, whereas Beijing retains "artificial intelligence" to focus on existing systems. Operational ambiguity also surrounds hotline reporting frameworks, specifically regarding how private frontier AI laboratories will submit anomaly data to state channels. Progress in forthcoming technical talks hinges on leveraging mutual strategic dependencies, balancing US export restrictions on advanced semiconductors against Chinese limits on critical minerals required for precision hardware.

Trump's midterm loss may harden China policy on Taiwan, chips

Asia Times | Jeff Pao

The Republican Party lost control of both the US Senate and House of Representatives in the 3 November 2026 midterm elections, prompting Chinese analysts to warn of intensified American tech restrictions and military support for Taiwan. Chinese commentators argue Democratic legislative dominance will institutionalise Washington's containment strategy through permanent legislation like the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware (MATCH) Act.

This bipartisan bill aims to align allied export controls, restricting Chinese semiconductor manufacturers, including Huawei Technologies and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, from acquiring advanced lithography tools and high-performance graphics processing units. Despite a temporary bilateral trade truce extended to 10 January 2027, which permitted limited sales of Nvidia H20 and H200 chips, Beijing anticipates harsher technology curbs. Washington maintains a delayed $14 billion Taiwan arms package. Chinese strategists conclude that US policy is shifting from transactional executive bargaining to durable, coalition-driven legislative containment across critical supply chains.

Saudi Arabia’s Houthi Problem Runs Deeper Than the Battlefield

RealClearWorld | Colton Overcash

Saudi Arabia restored its East-West oil pipeline to a throughput of 5.8 million barrels per day by 6 October 2026, following coordinated September disruptions by Iran-aligned forces. The initial strikes wounded 73 people in southern Saudi cities while Houthi militants briefly seized key positions at Mokha and Mayun Island.

This simultaneous interdiction of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and overland pipeline bypasses marked a turning point, revealing how non-state actors can paralyze Riyadh's redundant export infrastructure. Although Yemeni government forces reported retaking Mokha on 5 October, coalition air defences were forced to intercept three ballistic missiles and four drones over Saudi territory on 27 October. Tactical recoveries offer temporary relief. However, the enduring Houthi threat along the 1,200-kilometre pipeline corridor fundamentally imperils the foreign investment required for Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 plan while severely constraining Riyadh's strategic freedom of action during broader regional crises with Iran.

The consequences of the US midterm elections

IISS | Paul Fraioli, Benjamin Rhode, Dana Allin, Jonathan Caverley, Jonathan Stevenson

American voters delivered a decisive defeat to President Donald Trump’s Republican Party in the 3 November 2026 midterm congressional elections, handing Democrats control of both the Senate and House of Representatives. Exit polling identified corruption, cost of living, and the unpopular war against Iran as the primary drivers of voter discontent.

Democratic majorities seated from 3 January 2027 to January 2029 empower congressional leaders to block judicial appointments, scrutinise corporate executive deals, and leverage federal appropriations against White House initiatives. Defeat reshaped domestic energy and technology trajectories. Voters approved restrictions on artificial intelligence data-centre development across approximately 41 ballot measures nationwide, dampening capital investment expectations for high-performance computing infrastructure. High gasoline and diesel prices stemming from Middle East operations reinforced public opposition. Restricted by legislative paralysis domestically, Trump will likely rely on direct executive commands to drive trade actions, alliance management, and personal projects until January 2029.

The True Meaning of Power

Foreign Affairs | David Sacks

Hans Morgenthau’s classical realism established that international relations remain an unyielding struggle for power, yet his framework simultaneously demanded moral self-restraint to prevent self-destructive overreach. Today, the second Trump administration pursues aggressive unilateral force across Iran, Venezuela, and the Caribbean while dismissing international norms and allied consultations. This expansive posture highlights a fundamental strategic trade-off between unbridled short-term power projection and the long-term institutional legitimacy that sustains national influence.

Unchecked power untethered from normative constraints leads to strategic isolation, as partner states cease deferring to American leadership when moral limits are abandoned. Historical realism demonstrates that countervailing power and diplomatic norms alone prevent catastrophe in intense great-power competition. National power relies on restraint. Washington risks eroding its own domestic democratic foundations and alliance networks through unrestrained foreign entanglements. Ultimately, calibrating military strength against ethical boundaries remains essential to avoiding miscalculations in an era of heightened global friction.

War, Deal, Or Stalemate? What The Midterms Mean For Trump’s Iran War – Analysis

Eurasia Review | Kian Sharifi

United States President Donald Trump faces a two-month window to alter military operations against Iran after the November 4, 2026 midterm elections stripped Republicans of congressional majorities. Vice President JD Vance attributed the electoral defeat directly to the conflict, leaving Washington to evaluate forced capitulation against diplomatic compromise.

The operational landscape presents distinct choices ranging from targeted strikes on fortified facilities like Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz to maintaining a naval blockade. Iranian oil exports remain near zero. Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei responded by ordering unrestricted retaliatory preparedness, while the IRGC threatened undersea communications cables throughout the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, Qatari diplomatic mediation offers a narrow path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for partial sanctions relief. Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel on November 4 as global markets priced in de-escalation, yet prospective unilateral actions by Israel or Iranian hard-liners threaten to disrupt potential diplomatic agreements.

Four things we learned this week about 2028 White House race

BBC | Bernd Debusmann Jr

Democratic candidates achieved major congressional and gubernatorial gains in the 2026 US midterm elections, reshaping party momentum ahead of the 2028 presidential contest. High-profile victories by Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Governor Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania bolstered moderate Democratic credentials, while the centrist Blue Dog Caucus expanded its congressional presence by at least 14 seats.

These midterm victories reversed prior Republican inroads among Latino voters, driven by backlash against Trump administration deportation policies and a costly military intervention in Iran. Vice-President JD Vance publicly attributed Republican losses to the conflict, signalling early ideological fractures within the executive branch. Meanwhile, progressive Democrats cited victories in key battlegrounds like Michigan as proof that economic populism resonates with voters. Electoral coalitions are shifting. Both parties must consequently recalibrate their broader strategies as traditionally conservative states, including Texas, demonstrate increased competitiveness prior to the 2028 presidential nomination contests.

The Race For The White House Is About To Begin – OpEd

Eurasia Review | Corey Smith

Democratic and Republican prospective contenders began positioning themselves for the 2028 US presidential nomination following the 2026 midterm contests. A Siena poll for The New York Times revealed that 45 percent of Democratic voters remain undecided on a preferred nominee. Former Vice President Kamala Harris recorded 12 percent support, while California Governor Gavin Newsom registered 9 percent.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez followed with 7 percent and 6 percent respectively. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff received 4 percent despite disavowing presidential ambitions. This early maneuvering exposes growing party rifts. Meanwhile, Republicans navigate dilemmas after losing both congressional chambers. An Echelon Insights survey placed Vice President J.D. Vance ahead with 38 percent, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 20 percent, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 12 percent, and Donald Trump Jr. at 7 percent. GOP candidates must now weigh defending Donald Trump's record against attracting moderate voters.

Iran is the biggest winner of Tuesday’s election

The Hill | Jonathan Sweet, Mark Toth

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps encouraged American voters to oppose President Donald Trump before US midterm elections, aiming to force a policy shift through strategic economic pressure. Operation Epic Fury destroyed Iran's navy, air force, and missile production infrastructure while killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during 38 days of heavy strikes.

The regime survived. Relying on the Basij paramilitary and internal security networks, Tehran exerted asymmetric control by targeting regional energy infrastructure through proxy militias, including Houthi forces in Yemen. Iran also disrupted global commercial shipping across the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the Red Sea. A 212-day cease-fire enabled Iranian negotiators, assisted by Qatari and Pakistani mediators, to prolong talks and drive up global fuel costs. Although Operation Economic Outcast helped Gulf partners export 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil while blockading Iranian exports, Tehran leveraged sustained energy inflation to successfully outlast Washington's domestic political timeline.

The Post-Midterms AI Reckoning

Foreign Policy | Rishi Iyengar, Christina Lu

Following the U.S. midterm elections on 5 November 2026, a Democratic electoral surge halted expansive artificial intelligence deregulation across multiple American states. Voters overwhelmingly backed candidates advocating stringent technological oversight, driven by acute local resource strains from massive computing infrastructure buildouts. In Texas, Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa defeated incumbent Greg Abbott following intense public backlash against electrical grid instability caused by rapid industrial facility growth.

Voters approved 40 restrictive local ballot measures. More than 1,500 data centers currently under development join over 3,000 operating facilities, escalating regional competition for electricity, municipal water supplies, and land. Despite tech executives spending over $500 million to preserve permissive regulatory frameworks, NBC exit polling showed 57 percent of voters expect AI to cause societal harm. Incoming state and federal lawmakers now intend to institute mandatory community engagement protocols, grid capacity audits, and targeted moratoriums on new hyperscale data center infrastructure projects.

Friday briefing: ​After a week of disruption, is living with threats our new normal?

The Guardian

European commercial aviation and cold-chain infrastructure faced widespread operational disruption following hoax bomb threats against at least 25 flights and cyber-attacks on refrigeration systems across Belgium, Sweden, France, and the UK. Aviation security experts suggest the credentialed credibility of simultaneous flight warnings indicates potential coordination, while police investigators note that uncoordinated lone disruptors or hoaxers could equally account for the alerts.

These incidents highlight an expanding grey zone of hybrid threats operating below the threshold of conventional warfare. Cyber-attacks targeted critical temperature-control software at food wholesalers and France's national blood service. Security agencies face growing operational friction. Security services monitor thousands of active targets, yet low-level non-lethal sabotage remains difficult to detect before causing panic. Meanwhile, state advice encouraging citizens to stockpile 72 hours of emergency food and water reflects both legitimate resilience planning and broader strategic messaging intended to justify increased national defence spending.

Global stocks plunge as fears over US AI slowdown spread to Asia and Europe

BBC News | Rachel Clun, Osmond Chia, Nick Edser

Global stock markets plummeted after US Democratic midterm election victories sparked widespread investor panic over impending regulatory restrictions on artificial intelligence infrastructure. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index dropped by 5.5% in a single day, eroding roughly $2.5 trillion in market value as major technology firms experienced severe sell-offs. Political shifts in Congress heightened existing anxieties regarding massive capital expenditure on data centres with uncertain long-term financial returns.

Consequently, market turbulence swiftly cascaded across international exchanges, hitting Asian and European financial hubs. South Korea's Kospi index triggered a temporary circuit breaker after falling over 8%, while Japan's Nikkei index dropped by 6%. Tech companies lost significant capitalization. The magnificent seven tech firms lost $1 trillion in combined value, driven by drops in Nvidia, Apple, and Tesla. In response to mounting public backlash against environmental and resource impacts, Democratic lawmakers like Senator Bernie Sanders called for a national moratorium on new data centre builds.

After America's midterms, the clock is ticking for Israel to bridge its political divides

The Jerusalem Post | Herb Keinon

Israeli political leaders face mounting pressure to establish a national unity government following inconclusive domestic elections and shifting bipartisan political dynamics in the United States. Changing political attitudes across the American electorate threaten traditional diplomatic and defence alignments long relied upon by Jerusalem. Recent US midterm election results saw the victory of vocal critics of Israel alongside Vice President JD Vance publicly attributing midterm losses to foreign commitments and the Iran war.

Furthermore, President Donald Trump announced intentions to terminate America's $3.8 billion annual military assistance package, which currently runs through 2028. Time is running out for Jerusalem. Israeli decision-makers including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett, and Gadi Eisenkot must resolve ongoing coalition deadlocks to institutionalise intelligence, technological, and security arrangements before future presidential transitions alter Washington's strategic posture. Broadening government representation remains vital to repairing international public standing and preserving bilateral defense cooperation.

US midterm results spark fears in Israel over future of two countries' ties

BBC News | Lucy Williamson

United States midterm election results have disrupted long-standing strategic assumptions in Jerusalem, prompting fears over the future of the bilateral security alliance. President Donald Trump announced plans to terminate $3.8 billion in annual military aid to Israel two years earlier than scheduled, creating shock among Israeli leadership. This unexpected financial contraction threatens operational resupply for Israeli Air Force fleets and advanced missile defence networks reliant on American components.

Although foreign assistance constitutes under ten percent of Israel's defense budget, security analysts warn that a Democrat-controlled Congress could stall crucial arms transfers and joint defense projects. Netanyahu has remained silent. Meanwhile, opposition figures Gadi Eisenkot and Yair Lapid have criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for alienating Democratic lawmakers since his controversial 2015 Congressional address. With Vice-President JD Vance citing the relationship as a political liability among American voters, Israel faces a major realignment in military procurement, diplomatic backing, and theater-level operational planning.

Iran Celebrates Trump’s Setback, But The Price Of Perceived Victory Is Mounting At Home – Analysis

JCFA

Iranian state and conservative media outlets framed the 2026 US midterm election results as a victory for Tehran, directly linking American political shifts to ongoing confrontations in Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. Statements from Supreme Leader officials, Mohsen Rezaei, and Esmail Qaani presented the outcome as a political defeat for Washington to bolster regional deterrence.

Iranian news agency ISNA even compared the election to the historical Carter hostage crisis to construct a continuity of resilience. However, domestic economic data severely undercuts this narrative of external success. Internal costs are crippling. Forced disruptions caused an estimated $34 billion in damage and a 22 percent loss in economic activity, while industrial producer-price inflation hit 147.3 percent. Iranian tax revenues reached only 47 percent of target goals, aggravating energy shortages and production losses. Moderates in outlets such as Donya-e Eqtesad caution that executive veto powers leave US escalation options intact, exposing Tehran to compounding risks.

Optimizing Trump’s Strategy to ‘Rot Iran’s Economy’

RealClearDefense | Brian G. Chow

President Donald Trump retains exclusive executive authority over United States foreign policy and maritime enforcement following the 2026 midterm elections, enabling a direct escalation strategy against Iran. Tehran relies on Kharg Island to process roughly 90 percent of its crude oil exports, providing vital revenue to fund state operations, security forces, and regional proxy networks.

While a U.S. naval blockade has already cost the regime over $25 billion in lost oil sales, Iranian crude continues reaching buyers in China through floating supertankers anchored off Malaysia. Iran remains unyielding. A calibrated, step-by-step target framework using stand-off air and sea precision strikes against Kharg Island's jetties, pumping stations, and storage tanks offers a low-cost method to intensify economic pressure without deploying troops. By destroying oil export infrastructure incrementally in response to ongoing non-compliance, Washington can accelerate domestic economic collapse while leaving remaining capacity as leverage to force Tehran into negotiating a permanent settlement.

Asia’s response to the Middle East conflict: toward energy and economic resilience

IISS | Wakana Asano

The 2026 US–Israel war with Iran has severely disrupted Middle Eastern energy supplies, threatening Asian industrial and fiscal stability. Prior to the conflict, approximately 80% of oil products and 90% of liquefied natural gas passing through the Strait of Hormuz were destined for Asia. Energy shocks quickly spread.

Asian Development Bank projections indicate regional GDP growth will drop from 5.5% in 2025 to 5.0% in 2026. Import-dependent states face mounting fiscal distress, highlighted by Sri Lanka’s fuel import bill surging by approximately 75% year-on-year in March 2026. In response, thirty-two governments released 400 million barrels of emergency oil through the International Energy Agency. Asian governments are also enacting domestic gas allocations and establishing new bilateral supply-resilience pacts, including the July 2026 Australia–Singapore agreements. Meanwhile, Japan launched the US$10 billion POWERR Asia initiative alongside World Bank programs to secure supply chains, though structural economic risks persist.

How AI is enabling faster, more dangerous cyber war

Axios | Sam Sabin

State-backed cyber campaigns accelerated by artificial intelligence are striking cold-chain logistics across European grocery stores and US military bases while breaching international networks at unprecedented speeds. CrowdStrike reported that China-linked threat group Vapor Panda used an AI framework called Artex alongside DeepSeek to compromise over 200 organisations across 14 countries in 11 days.

This operational acceleration relies on autonomous agents capable of achieving initial network entry within 15 minutes. Cold-chain infrastructure faces acute sustainment vulnerabilities. European supermarket fridges and French blood banks suffered overnight temperature spoilage linked to Russian actors, while suspected Iranian operators targeted US military base freezers. Concurrently, North Korean hackers used automated pipelines following a $6.3 billion Binance cryptocurrency heist. Security researchers from Google and SentinelOne note that tools like Cairn and Strix further compress defender reaction timelines. The UK National Cyber Security Centre warned that legacy network defences cannot match AI-driven attack velocity.

AI's Growing Role In Turkish Military Technology: Target Planning, Autonomous Attack Swarms, Kinetic Counter-Drone Systems, And Surveillance

MEMRI

Turkish Armed Forces demonstrated operational AI integration across target planning, autonomous drone swarms, and counter-UAV defense during the Ateş Serbest-2026 live-fire exercise in late 2026. The Turkish Land Forces used AI-driven algorithms for live-fire target allocation, while 16 BAZNA expendable attack drones were managed via voice control using the DataBoss GökKAAN system.

These field trials highlight Turkey's systemic push to convert experimental unmanned networks into standardized operational doctrine. Distributed swarms maintained mission cohesion during simulated losses. STM fielded a 20-drone swarm of KARGU loitering munitions executing coordinated strikes, while Baykar networked AKINCI UAVs, TB2 platforms, and KEMANKEŞ 1 mini cruise missiles. Additionally, ASELSAN introduced the GÖKALP kinetic counter-drone system featuring AESA radar and AI-guided interceptors, alongside HAVELSAN deploying EYEMINER analytics for civilian and security monitoring. Concurrently, the General Staff Cyber Defence Command fused open-source internet camera feeds with radar and SIGINT into the KOCATEPE tactical command system.

Don’t Be Swayed by Tactical Nukes

RealClearDefense | Benjamin Giltner

Undersecretary Elbridge Colby and the US Department of Defense are seeking to increase the reliance on lower-yield tactical nuclear weapons across European forward deployments. This strategy aims to bridge the gap between permanent ground troops and complete withdrawal, but it creates profound escalation hazards. Tactical nuclear payloads range from 0.1

to 50 kilotons, yet even low-yield options match or exceed the 16-kiloton bomb dropped on Hiroshima. A Council on Strategic Risks study shows a 20-kiloton blast vaporises everything within 600 metres while causing severe thermal burns at 1,500 metres. NUKEMAP modelling of a 20-kiloton surface detonation over New York projects 159,000 deaths and 291,000 injuries, with fallout reaching Shelton, Connecticut. Low-yield weapons remain devastatingly destructive. Miscalculating their operational distinction risks unmanageable escalation during regional crises. Rather than building more sub-strategic warheads, Washington should recognise force limits and adjust regional commitments across Europe and Asia-Pacific.

Jaishankar’s Baku Visit Opens a New Chapter in Azerbaijan–India Relations

The Jamestown Foundation | Vasif Huseynov

Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited Baku on 23 October, marking the first bilateral visit by an Indian foreign minister to Azerbaijan in eight years. The diplomatic engagement seeks to repair relations strained after Baku backed Pakistan following Indian military strikes in May 2025. Tensions had triggered a 56 percent drop in Indian tourist arrivals alongside diplomatic friction over Azerbaijan’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization bid.

Both governments are now prioritizing economic cooperation, with bilateral trade reaching approximately $600 million in nine months, up from $401 million in 2025. Azerbaijan exported 524,338 tons of crude oil to India during this period, representing a fourfold increase. Energy trade leads the bilateral economic recovery. Over 1,000 Indian companies currently operate in Azerbaijan, while ONGC Videsh holds a 2.925 percent stake in the Azeri oil fields. Transport connectivity along the International North-South Transport Corridor remains central to New Delhi’s strategy. However, unresolved Indian defense sales to Armenia continue to test the bilateral thaw.

How Chinese Investments in Afghanistan Are Aiding the Taliban—and Hurting the People

The National Interest | Natiq Malikzada

China has rapidly expanded commercial and diplomatic engagements in Afghanistan following the August 2021 US military withdrawal, securing long-term resource extraction rights across multiple provinces. The Taliban leadership directly coordinates these investments by deploying Chinese-speaking Afghan officials through key ministries to guide corporate delegations toward lucrative mining concessions.

In January 2023, Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Company secured a 25-year contract committing $540 million to develop the Amu Darya oil basin. Subsequent gold extraction projects in Takhar and Badakhshan provinces became active by January 2026. Local populations face severe environmental costs. This institutional coordination provides crucial non-Western revenue for Kabul while expanding Beijing's footprint across regional resource networks. Diplomatically, Beijing hosted Taliban-Pakistan peace talks in Urumqi in April 2026. President Xi Jinping accepted credentials from the Taliban ambassador in January 2024, despite withholding formal state recognition. These developments consolidate Chinese economic influence in post-withdrawal Central Asia.

The Taliban after five years in power

International Institute for Strategic Studies

The Taliban has consolidated domestic control across Afghanistan over five years in power, avoiding state collapse while building diplomatic links across Central Asia, China, India, and the European Union. Host capitals accept de facto Afghan ambassadors, yet Russia is the sole nation offering formal diplomatic recognition. Operational sanctuary granted to Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan insurgents fuels severe conflict with Islamabad.

Cross-border logistics and safe havens sustain TTP strikes in Pakistani cities like Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan. Border closures strain trade. Islamabad uses mass Afghan refugee deportations, prolonged border blockades, and airstrikes to leverage Kabul. Internal Taliban friction complicates negotiations, as leaders such as Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who spent eight years in Pakistani custody before his 2018 release, harbour deep resentment toward Islamabad. Ideological ties to Mullah Akhundzada and rising Afghan nationalism ensure Kabul resists severing operational ties with TTP fighters along the Durand Line.

Whoever Controls the Water May Decide the Next War

RealClearWorld | Colton Overcash

Pakistan warned in April 2025 that stopping treaty-protected river flows constitutes an act of war, illustrating how upstream hydropolitics drives military escalation risks across critical transboundary basins. India subsequently placed the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance following a Kashmir security crisis, prompting an August 2026 Court of Arbitration ruling that New Delhi rejected.

Structural vulnerabilities extend globally across key riparian choke points. In July 2025, China initiated a major hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo, heightening security anxieties in downstream India and Bangladesh. Meanwhile, dams along the Mekong River have shifted up to 20 percent of seasonal water volumes, undermining downstream agriculture. Hydrological disruption triggers intense geopolitical friction. Similarly, Ethiopia inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in September 2025, creating strategic friction with water-dependent Egypt during potential drought cycles. Consequently, infrastructure control allows upstream states to exert decisive leverage, forcing downstream nations to treat river management as a vital national security imperative.

The Rising Threat of Great Power War and the Lessons of 1914

Council on Foreign Relations | James M. Lindsay

Great power competition and rising autocracies are rapidly eroding post–Cold War stability as Russia wages war in Ukraine and China expands its military forces near Taiwan. Yale historian Odd Arne Westad warns that contemporary multipolarity closely mirrors the structural instability of pre-World War I Europe. Shifting economic power and intensifying regional nationalism create systemic vulnerabilities across volatile geopolitical chokepoints.

Dispersed power and rapid military expansion can trigger unintended escalation without leaders explicitly choosing conflict. In 1914, European powers miscalculated how localized Balkan instability could instantly trigger a continental catastrophe. War can ignite without deliberate intent. Today, instantaneous global communications, complex security alliances, and emerging artificial intelligence further compress decision-making time, making accidental escalation even more dangerous. Avoiding a wider regional or global crisis requires state leaders to actively resolve localized peripheral conflicts before rapid strategic dynamics push opposing coalitions past the point of no return.