The BRICS+ Are Still Alive and Kicking

IAI  |  Ernesto Gallo

The BRICS+ group, despite persistent Western narratives of its decline due to internal differences and geopolitical tensions, demonstrates remarkable resilience and potential for reconfiguration. India, a core member, distanced itself from BRICS military exercises in January 2026, and the Iran war exposed rifts, particularly between new members Iran and the UAE. However, the conflict did not fracture the bloc; Russia and China offered diplomatic condemnation of US-Israeli attacks without escalation, and even the West exhibited significant internal divisions. India's foreign policy, characterized by strengthening ties with Israel while maintaining crucial economic links with Arab nations and proposing BRICS digital currency initiatives, reflects a complex "multialignment" rather than a definitive shift towards the West. Primarily an economic forum, BRICS+ seeks greater voice in global institutions and aims to foster a "non-Western" pluriversal world. As 2026 Chair, India faces the critical task of providing a strong, peace- and development-focused vision to consolidate the group's diverse interests, countering self-serving Western decline narratives.

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Theaterisation in play: Air Headquarters to control strategic assets

The Print  |  Snehesh Alex Philip

India's military theaterisation plan, designed to enhance integrated command structures, has achieved a significant breakthrough with a consensus on the division of air assets. Previously a major point of contention, the agreement stipulates that the Air Headquarters will retain central command over all strategic air assets, encompassing refuellers, transport aircraft, Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) systems, future electronic intelligence aircraft, and space-based assets. Conversely, fighter aircraft will be allocated to their respective theatre commands. The overarching strategy includes establishing three theatre commands: one focused on China, to be led by an Army officer and based in Lucknow; another addressing Pakistan, headed by an Air Force officer and located in Jaipur; and a dedicated maritime theatre. This structural reform aims to streamline operations and improve synergy across the services, with ongoing efforts to finalize the foundational modalities.

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Three Million Children

brief

Baluchistan, a province in Pakistan, faces a severe educational crisis with its Education Minister, Raheela Hameed Khan Durrani, disclosing that three million children are not attending school. This revelation, made at a government event in May 2026, highlights a significant governance failure and a critical deficit in human capital development within the region. The lack of accurate data on out-of-school children underscores systemic weaknesses in provincial administration and resource allocation. The arrival of a civic-tech organization, reportedly with undisclosed foreign funding, to map this educational gap introduces a complex dynamic. While potentially offering data-driven solutions, the foreign funding aspect could raise sovereignty concerns or questions about external influence in a strategically sensitive province. This situation poses long-term challenges for Pakistan's stability, economic growth, and social cohesion, potentially exacerbating existing grievances and hindering efforts to counter extremism through education. The inability to account for such a large segment of the youth population represents a profound strategic vulnerability.

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A Year After Operation Sindoor, Early Narratives Collapse Under Evidence

Spencerguard  |  John Spencer

One year after Operation Sindoor, the 2025 India-Pakistan air campaign, initial narratives of Pakistani success and significant Indian aircraft losses have been debunked by operational evidence. A report released by the Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires in Switzerland reveals that while India sustained early tactical losses, the Indian Air Force rapidly achieved air superiority by May 10. This was accomplished through a deliberate suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses campaign, targeting Pakistani radar and SAM sites on May 8-9, and leveraging advanced systems like the S-400 to expand engagement envelopes. The decisive phase involved coordinated long-range precision strikes using BrahMos, SCALP-EG, and Rampage missiles against key Pakistani airbases and command centers across the country's operational depth, confirmed by satellite imagery and Pakistani official acknowledgments. Pakistan's subsequent retaliatory drone and missile attacks failed against India’s integrated air defense network. The campaign underscored that modern air warfare is a contest of integrated systems, where India's advantages in scale and depth ultimately outmatched Pakistan's capabilities, forcing a ceasefire.

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Taiwan After the Trump-Xi Summit: From Strategic Frontline to Strategic Balancing Point

E-International Relations  |  Jinghao Zhou

Taiwan faces an escalating strategic dilemma, transitioning from a passive frontline in U.S.-China rivalry to a potential "strategic balancing point" following the Trump-Xi summit. Beijing views unification as critical for national rejuvenation, geopolitical expansion beyond the First Island Chain, and securing semiconductor dominance, with Xi Jinping having emphasized increased urgency and the PLA conducting coercive drills. The United States, conversely, sees preventing unification as essential for maintaining its Indo-Pacific leadership and global technological supremacy. Structural pressures, including China's growing military capabilities, its desire to break U.S. strategic encirclement, and the irreversible divergence in cross-strait identities, heighten the risk of military confrontation. Both sides face significant miscalculation traps: China's leadership may suffer from distorted information leading to overconfidence, while U.S. strategic ambiguity and potential military-industrial capacity shortages could undermine its deterrence credibility. Taiwan itself risks a "survival trap," oscillating between a "Hong Kong scenario" of political concessions or a "Ukraine scenario" of direct conflict.

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Trump Comes to Beijing With a Blockade and a Boeing Order

FrameTheGlobeNews  |  The Ren Way

A future visit by former President Trump to Beijing is anticipated to involve a strategic blend of economic coercion, potentially through a 'blockade,' and transactional diplomacy, exemplified by a significant 'Boeing order.' This approach contrasts with previous presidential engagements, where American leaders, despite seeking decisive advantages, often concluded with substantial economic agreements, such as the $83.7 billion memorandum of understanding mentioned in the article. The proposed 'blockade' suggests a willingness to employ more aggressive, possibly military-backed, economic pressure to achieve specific concessions from China. Simultaneously, the 'Boeing order' indicates a transactional strategy where large commercial deals serve as both incentives and bargaining chips. This dual-pronged strategy could redefine US-China relations, escalating geopolitical tensions while pursuing specific economic and strategic objectives through a mix of pressure and inducement.

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Trump in China: A Case Study Of US Decline

Phillips’s Newsletter  |  Phillips P. OBrien

Donald Trump's recent meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2026, particularly his silence on the Taiwan issue, signals a concerning shift in U.S. diplomatic posture and perceived strategic decline. In contrast to President Joe Biden's firm public stance against Chinese military force towards Taiwan in 2022, Trump's refusal to address the topic when pressed by the media, despite Xi's explicit warnings of potential conflict, suggests a diminished U.S. commitment to key democratic allies. This perceived lack of resolve, interpreted as the U.S. acting as a supplicant needing Chinese assistance, raises significant questions about Washington's ability and willingness to protect partners like Taiwan. The incident underscores a potential weakening of U.S. deterrence and influence in the Indo-Pacific, with implications for regional stability and the broader U.S.-China strategic competition. Taiwan's media has already reported on Trump's silence ominously, highlighting the immediate impact on allied perceptions.

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The Iran Conflict Illuminates Taiwan’s Unique Energy Security Challenge

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Yu-Hsuan Yeh, Bonny Lin, Jane Nakano

The war in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz have significantly heightened energy security concerns across Asia, particularly for Taiwan, which faces a unique and precarious reliance on imported energy. Taiwan's extreme dependence on seaborne energy imports, with approximately 85 percent of East Asia's crude oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz, renders it highly vulnerable to disruptions in global shipping lanes. The ongoing Iran conflict, by demonstrating the potential for critical chokepoints to be compromised, underscores Taiwan's inherent strategic fragility. This situation compels Taipei to re-evaluate its energy diversification strategies, emergency stockpiles, and resilience against potential blockades, especially given the persistent threat of a Chinese invasion or naval interdiction. The strategic lessons from the Middle East are directly applicable to Taiwan's own geopolitical context, where a similar disruption could be engineered by Beijing. This necessitates robust international cooperation and domestic policy adjustments to mitigate catastrophic economic and societal impacts from energy supply interruptions, reinforcing the urgency for Taiwan to bolster its strategic reserves and alternative supply routes.

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America’s Negotiating Debt

FrameTheGlobeNews  |  The Ren Way

The potential return of Donald Trump to Beijing, as discussed in the article, underscores the inherent limitations of coercive power in U.S.-China strategic negotiations. The piece suggests that the United States has accumulated a "negotiating debt" by consistently prioritizing aggressive pressure tactics, which China has effectively learned to counter or exploit. This approach, exemplified by past Trump administration policies, risks not only failing to achieve desired concessions but also alienating key allies and solidifying Beijing's resolve. Strategically, the article implies that a more patient, nuanced, and potentially multilateral engagement strategy is imperative to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape with China, moving beyond a zero-sum competition. The Chinese proverb "欲速则不达" (The faster you chase, the further the destination recedes) serves as a central metaphor, advocating for a recalibration of U.S. foreign policy tools to foster more sustainable and effective long-term strategic objectives rather than relying on short-term, high-pressure tactics.

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Chinese Hegemony in Asia Might Be Happening

Foreign Policy | Stephen M. Walt

Former President Trump's policies and actions are increasingly perceived as inadvertently facilitating the emergence of Chinese hegemony across Asia, marking a significant strategic shift in the Indo-Pacific. This analysis suggests that a potential departure from traditional U.S. engagement or a weakening of alliances under a Trump administration could create a power vacuum, diminishing American influence and allowing Beijing to expand its economic, political, and military footprint unchallenged. The article likely examines how specific decisions, such as trade disputes, questioning of alliance commitments, or a perceived U.S. retreat from multilateral institutions, have weakened regional counterbalances to China's growing power. Consequently, nations in the Indo-Pacific might be compelled to align more closely with Beijing, accepting its leadership in regional governance and economic frameworks. This development poses profound long-term challenges to the existing liberal international order and U.S. strategic interests, potentially ushering in a new era of Chinese dominance in a critical geopolitical theater, with implications for global power dynamics and regional stability.

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Don’t Ask China for Help With Hormuz

Real Clear World  |  Sarah Dimichino

The United States should avoid pressuring China for assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz and refrain from sanctioning Chinese oil refineries, particularly during an upcoming summit in Beijing. Despite a stalled war with Iran and a fragile ceasefire, China enters negotiations confidently, having made significant technological advancements and leveraged control over rare earths. US sanctions on Chinese "teapot" refineries have proven ineffective in curbing Iranian oil purchases, and unclear messaging regarding responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz projects weakness and confers legitimacy on China as a mediator. While reopening the strait is in everyone's interest, Washington's public demands risk inducing Beijing's reluctance. A more private approach to cooperation on the strait would allow both superpowers to maintain credibility and focus on longer-standing trade and defense issues, potentially yielding more strategic wins for the US.

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Trump and Xi’s spheres of ignorance

Newsweek  |  Newsweek Editors

The relationship between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is characterized by significant "spheres of ignorance" on both sides, hindering effective strategic engagement. Trump's transactional approach often misinterprets China's civilizational priorities, particularly regarding Taiwan, and underestimates American voters' preference for lower prices over confrontational trade policies. Similarly, Xi's understanding of the U.S. is potentially flawed by treating Trump as the sole representation of America and by an authoritarian information system that filters genuine Chinese public sentiment, which can be both nationalistic and pragmatic. This mutual lack of deep understanding is exacerbated by a thinning of "middle layers" of communication, evidenced by declining numbers of American students in China, reduced flights, and restricted foreign journalism. The article highlights that while a summit might yield superficial agreements, it cannot bridge these fundamental gaps in perception, making the risk of conflict a "known known" if diplomacy fails to acknowledge these constraints.

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Daily Memo: Bessent in East Asia, Iran’s Recovery

Geopolitical Futures  

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent initiated key diplomatic engagements in East Asia, meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Seoul and Japanese officials in Tokyo. These discussions serve as crucial groundwork ahead of an anticipated visit by President Donald Trump to China, focusing primarily on bilateral trade and shaping the agenda for Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Bessent's itinerary underscores the United States' strategic commitment to managing complex economic relationships and coordinating policy with vital regional allies, Japan and South Korea, before high-level interactions with Beijing. This pre-summit diplomacy aims to identify common interests, mitigate potential trade disputes, and establish a constructive framework for future U.S.-China economic and strategic dialogues, while simultaneously reinforcing alliances within the Indo-Pacific.

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The China Gambit: From Nixon to Trump

The New York Times  |  Edward Wong

President Richard M. Nixon's 1972 visit to Beijing initiated a strategic gamble, aiming to serve American interests by opening diplomatic ties with Communist China and downgrading relations with Taiwan. Subsequent U.S. presidential visits continued this approach, with Chinese leaders viewing summits as opportunities to defuse tensions and convey core interests. The underlying American hope was that economic integration through trade would eventually foster political change in Beijing. However, as China's power and confidence grew, the dynamics shifted, with many Chinese officials now perceiving the United States as a nation in decline. This evolution from Nixon's initial gambit to President Trump's era highlights a continuum of alternating periods in U.S.-China relations, marked by significant geopolitical and economic shifts, including China's entry into the World Trade Organization and its emergence as a global economic engine.

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China gains major edge on U.S. amid Iran war, intelligence report finds

The Washington Post  |  John Hudson

A confidential U.S. intelligence assessment reveals that China is strategically leveraging the ongoing war in Iran to significantly enhance its global standing and competitive advantage over the United States across multiple domains. This critical report, circulating as President Donald Trump embarks on a highly anticipated trip to Beijing, details how Beijing is making substantial gains across military, economic, and diplomatic sectors. The protracted conflict in the Middle East has demonstrably diverted U.S. attention, resources, and strategic focus, thereby creating a permissive environment for China to expand its influence and capabilities globally. This opportunistic strategic shift by China poses substantial geopolitical consequences, potentially altering the global balance of power and challenging U.S. primacy in key regions. The intelligence findings underscore the urgent need for a comprehensive and agile U.S. strategy to counter China's advancements and mitigate the long-term impacts of its growing influence, especially while the U.S. remains deeply engaged in the Iran conflict.

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Iraq’s New Prime Minister Faces Immediate Test Over Iran and the U.S.

Oilprice.com  |  James Durso

Iraq's newly nominated Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, faces immediate and complex strategic challenges balancing U.S. and Iranian influence. Washington supports al-Zaidi as a compromise candidate, aiming to curb Iran-linked militias, reduce Iraq's heavy dependence on Iranian natural gas imports, and expand U.S. economic involvement. Key issues include the U.S. push to sanction and integrate militias like the PMF into unified Iraqi command, and Iraq's vulnerability due to its reliance on Iranian gas, which has seen volatile supply disruptions, including after an Israeli attack on Iran's South Pars field. Iraq plans to achieve zero routine gas flaring by 2028 to reduce this dependence. Al-Zaidi must also navigate increased U.S. investment in Iraq's oil sector and infrastructure projects like the Development Road, while asserting Iraqi sovereignty amidst U.S. strategic cooperation and military presence, especially following regional conflicts. The formation of an inclusive government, free of hardline Iranian proxies, remains a critical U.S. condition.

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Gen. Caine’s Silence on Iran War Leaves Questions About Military Strategy

The New York Times  |  Greg Jaffe

General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is navigating a challenging political landscape as he leads the U.S. military through a divisive war with Iran. During extensive congressional testimony, Caine has faced repeated questions regarding the U.S. military's failure to prevent the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its broader strategy to reopen it and end the conflict. While Caine has defined the military's mission narrowly, focusing on targeting Iran’s ballistic missile systems, destroying its Navy, and protecting U.S. forces and allies, he has deliberately avoided discussing the broader strategic implications or whether the Pentagon anticipated the strait's closure. This approach highlights his tightrope walk between his obligation to remain apolitical and the President's demand for absolute loyalty, leaving lawmakers with significant unanswered questions about the overall U.S. military strategy and its effectiveness in the region.

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Who Owns the Strait?

The New York Times  |  Sam Sifton

Iran's assertion of control over the Strait of Hormuz has plunged global oil markets into crisis, trapping thousands of ships in the Persian Gulf and inducing a global economic downturn. President Trump's negotiations with Tehran are on "life support" as Iran demands to maintain its chokehold on the vital waterway, through which a fifth of the world's oil flowed before the current conflict. This recurring strategic challenge, previously seen in the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, involves Iranian attacks on vessels and a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. The dispute is fundamentally legal, centered on the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, which permits territorial waters but mandates free navigation. Iran's proposal to charge a toll would violate customary international law, as highlighted by legal scholars like James Kraska. The crisis significantly impacts Trump's summit with China's President Xi Jinping, as the U.S. seeks Chinese pressure on Iran to reopen the strait, underscoring the geopolitical and economic ramifications of maritime chokepoint control.

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Prince Turki al-Faisal's Op-Ed

FrameTheGlobeNews

Prince Turki al-Faisal, former head of Saudi intelligence, has reportedly documented a de-escalation channel that entirely bypassed the United States, a revelation met with notable silence from Washington. This strategic silence is interpreted as a significant indicator of shifting regional dynamics and potentially diminished U.S. influence in critical Middle Eastern security matters. The article highlights a direct reference within al-Faisal's op-ed to "the US-Israeli war on Iran," a phrasing that deviates sharply from Washington's preferred diplomatic language and suggests a more direct and aggressive perception of the conflict. This development underscores a potential re-alignment of regional powers and a growing willingness by key actors to pursue independent diplomatic and security pathways, challenging established alliances and U.S. mediation roles. The lack of an official U.S. response to such a critical disclosure further amplifies concerns about the efficacy of current U.S. foreign policy in the region and the future of its strategic partnerships.

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Trump, Putin, and Genghis Khan: A Conversation With Fiona Hill

Foreign Affairs  |  Dan Kurtz-Phelan, Fiona Hill

Fiona Hill, a seasoned observer of global leaders, critically analyzes Donald Trump's second-term foreign policy, highlighting his unexpected embrace of an "imperial mindset" and a significant departure from his initial reluctance towards military interventions. She notes his increasingly uninhibited actions, such as pushing for the acquisition of Greenland, making belligerent statements towards Canada, and initiating a war against Iran in the Gulf, which she describes as exceeding even her own pessimistic anticipations. Hill identifies Trump's growing megalomania, narcissism, and "Messiah complex," asserting that he perceives himself as an infallible, world-historic figure operating without conventional constraints, even from market forces or traditional allies. This unconstrained approach, she warns, creates a highly turbulent global environment where the boundaries of American power and international norms are continually challenged by leaders like Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping. Hill's analysis underscores a profound concern for the future of global stability given Trump's perceived lack of limitations on his actions.

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Assessing Russian Network Warfare Through the Lens of the Ukraine Conflict

Small Wars Journal | Nysret Buzhala

Russia's integrated model of network-centric warfare, encompassing Computer Network Operations (CNO), AI-enabled Information Operations (IO), Electronic Warfare (EW), and space-based capabilities, has been significantly tested in the Ukraine conflict, revealing critical gaps between strategic design and operational execution. Despite initial technical successes, such as the Viasat attack, Moscow underestimated the resilience of commercial entities like SpaceX’s Starlink and Ukraine's adaptive defense, which leveraged Western support to outpace Russian electronic and information warfare cycles. Russian cyber operations, while strong initially, faltered in sustained execution against real-time countermeasures. Its AI-enabled IO, rooted in Soviet-era deception, effectively uses large language models to generate high-volume disinformation and amplify existing societal divisions. Similarly, Russia's EW systems achieved early tactical effects but were rapidly mitigated by Ukrainian adaptations. The article concludes that Russia’s doctrinal rigidity and poor tactical integration have been outmatched by Ukraine’s agile, commercially augmented architecture, recommending Western defense prioritize machine-speed counter-disinformation, “hunt-forward” cyber operations, and formal protections for commercial space assets.

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Marine Corps University Press

Journal of Advanced Military Studies, Spring 2026, v. 17, no. 1

Forging the Will to Fight: Lessons from the Winter War, 1939–1940

Geoeconomic Analysis of Price of Persistence in the Fight against Terrorism: Financial Flows and the Psychology of Warfare

The Will to Fight: The Most Overused Phrase and Misunderstood Aspect of Warfare

Preventing an Unacknowledged Assumption: Inexhaustible American Will to Fight

Beyond Willingness to Fight: The Individual’s Defense Relationship Theory as a Comprehensive Framework for Citizen Commitment to National Defense and Security—A Review Article

More than Morale: Identity Fusion and the Psychology of the Will to Fight

National Will to Fight in Allied Democracies: A Comparative Enabling-Conditions Assessment

Beyond Break-Falls: MCMAP and the Will to Fight

Becoming, Not Joining: Belongingness as the Core Driver of Will to Fight

The Secret of the Ukrainian Resilience: National Identity and Will to Fight

Fighting for Someone Else

Mind the Gap: Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s Middle East Gamble

Small Wars Journal | Tahir Azad

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's recent Gulf tour, encompassing Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Jordan, strategically offers Ukraine's battle-hardened expertise in countering Iranian-origin drones. Denied sufficient Western air defense, Ukraine innovated low-cost, mass-producible "Shahed Killers" and an integrated Sky Fortress sensor network, achieving an 87% interception rate against Russian drones in February 2026. Kyiv seeks ballistic missile support and financial aid from Gulf states in exchange for this technology, aiming to secure alternative resources amid uncertain Western support and position Ukraine as an active security contributor. Zelenskyy's core argument frames Russia and Iran as a unified threat architecture, with Moscow allegedly sharing intelligence and electronic warfare capabilities with Tehran, directly linking Ukraine's struggle to Gulf security anxieties, especially given European strategic paralysis regarding the US military operation against Iran.

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U.S. Aircraft Combat Losses In Operation Epic Fury

Eurasia Review  |  Jennifer DiMascio, Joshua Korzilius, Daniel M. Gettinger

The United States, in coordination with Israel, initiated Operation Epic Fury against Iran on February 28, 2026, involving air, maritime, and missile combat across the Middle East. This analysis details 42 U.S. fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft, including drones, reportedly lost or damaged during the conflict, which saw a temporary ceasefire before strikes resumed. Significant losses include four F-15E Strike Eagles (one over Iran, three by friendly fire), an F-35A Lightning II, an A-10 Thunderbolt II, seven KC-135 Stratotankers, an E-3 Sentry AWACS, two MC-130J Commando IIs, an HH-60W Jolly Green II, twenty-four MQ-9 Reapers, and one MQ-4C Triton. These incidents, occurring through enemy action, friendly fire, and ground attacks, highlight the contested nature of the operational environment. The Department of Defense has not provided a comprehensive loss assessment, but an estimated $25 billion has been spent. These losses raise critical congressional oversight issues concerning budgetary impacts, force sufficiency, industrial base capacity, and operational risk, potentially necessitating adjustments to U.S. tactics and basing posture in the region.

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Strings attached: How foreign states control non-state armed groups

Taylor & Francis Online  |  Niklas Karlén, Vladimir Rauta

Foreign states employ a sophisticated array of ten distinct control mechanisms—selection, programming, inducements, promises, threats, rewards, sanctions, checks and balances, reporting, and monitoring—to manage non-state armed groups (NSAGs) and mitigate the inherent risks of conflict delegation. This research challenges the prevailing simplistic understanding of state control over proxies, arguing that state support is far more formalized, structured, and regulated than commonly assumed. By leveraging principal-agent theory, the authors develop a fine-grained conceptual framework that addresses issues of divergent interests and asymmetric information, providing a more comprehensive and analytically precise tool for understanding state-proxy relationships. This refined understanding is crucial for both scholars and policymakers to assess state complicity in NSAG actions, formulate effective policies to disrupt problematic relationships, and navigate the complex legal and ethical implications of proxy warfare on international humanitarian law.

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Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute  |  Xiao Liang, Dr Nan Tian, Dr Diego Lopes da Silva, Lorenzo Scarazzato, Zubaida A. Karim, Jade Guiberteau Ricard

Global military expenditure reached $2887 billion in 2025, marking an 11th consecutive year of growth with a 2.9 percent real-terms increase, contributing to a 41 percent rise over the past decade (2016–25). This sustained upward trend elevated the world's military burden to 2.5 percent of global GDP in 2025, up from 2.4 percent in 2024. Notably, the 2025 growth rate was the lowest since 2021, significantly less than the 9.7 percent surge in 2024. Despite a decrease in spending by the United States, the world's largest military spender, overall global expenditure continued its ascent. This was primarily driven by substantial increases in European and Asian/Oceanian military budgets, which collectively more than compensated for the US reduction. Excluding the USA, world military expenditure expanded by a robust 9.2 percent in 2025, indicating a broad-based rearmament or modernization effort across many regions. These trends, detailed in the updated SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, highlight a persistent global prioritization of defense spending amidst evolving geopolitical landscapes, suggesting continued investment in military capabilities and a potential shift in the distribution of defense burdens away from sole US dominance.

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Growing Autonomy and the Politics of Moral Responsibility for Military Action

Taylor & Francis Online  |  John Williams

The pervasive debate surrounding Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) and the 'responsibility/accountability gap' overlooks critical political and economic forces that compel their development and deployment. These dynamics include the security dilemma, the perceived inevitability of AI integration into military systems, and capitalist profit maximization, which collectively create an environment where states feel they have "no choice" but to pursue LAWS. This perceived lack of choice significantly curtails political responsibility for LAWS development, narrowing the ethical discourse to technical and procedural aspects of their *use*, such as target identification, selection, and engagement. The article highlights how this mirrors the utilitarian and procedural accountability practices established for uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), prioritizing compliance with rules of engagement and mission success over broader moral considerations. Consequently, the analysis advocates for a broadened perspective to fully acknowledge the extensive ethical issues presented by military AI and LAWS, moving beyond a narrow technical focus.

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The Shahed Drone – Takshashila Institution

Takshashila Institution | Anushka Saxena

Iran's Shahed drone program, extensively utilized in the 2026 US-Israel war on Iran, exemplifies the global proliferation of low-cost, precision strike capabilities that fundamentally challenge traditional air defense paradigms. These uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), particularly the Shahed-136 variant, enable sustained attritional campaigns against technologically superior adversaries, as demonstrated by strikes on RAF Akrotiri, Camp Buehring, the US Navy's Fifth Fleet HQ, and Dubai International Airport. Despite stringent global sanctions, Iran has established a robust Shahed ecosystem, sourcing 80% American components via shell companies and Chinese re-export hubs, exploiting dual-use trade loopholes. The Shahed's accessible design, utilizing composite materials and reverse-engineered engines, facilitates rapid production and global diffusion, with Russia and the US developing their own copies, signaling an accelerating global drone arms race and a significant shift in military calculus.

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AI-First Professional Military Education: Validating the Grade Chain Before the Kill Chain

Small Wars Journal | Anthony A. Joyce

The Department of War's Artificial Intelligence Strategy for the Department of War mandates that Professional Military Education (PME) institutions rigorously test Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents in low-stakes environments before deploying them in high-consequence combat scenarios. This article argues that PME has a professional and moral obligation to use the 'grade chain'—AI-assisted grading—as a proving ground for human-machine teaming, validating the core hypothesis of the AI strategy. Through the case study of Athena, an in-house AI-grading assistant developed by soldier-developers, the article demonstrates how PME can train leaders to critically interrogate AI recommendations, identify biases, and understand the quantification of uncertainty provided by diverse AI models. This approach not only refines AI tools but also develops essential human skills for commanding AI, enabling novel assessment methods like analyzing student-AI conversations, and addressing the broader crisis in higher education where AI Companies are Eating Higher Education. Ultimately, this ensures the transition to an AI-enabled force is a strategic, not a reckless, gamble.

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The Insurance Weapon: How Commercial Risk Logic Became an Irregular Warfare Tool at Hormuz

Small Wars Journal | John Hatzadony

Iran effectively weaponized the global marine insurance system at the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating a novel irregular warfare capability that closed the vital chokepoint commercially before any physical blockade. Following coordinated U.S.–Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, war risk premiums surged fivefold, major insurers terminated existing coverage, and Lloyd’s Joint War Committee designated the entire Arabian Gulf a conflict zone, causing tanker traffic to collapse by over 80 percent. This disruption, distinct from physical destruction, involves the withdrawal of commercial preconditions like insurance coverage, making maritime operations financially unviable. The mechanism functions as a self-executing weapon system: commercial shipping cannot operate without insurance, and the Lloyd’s Joint War Committee (JWC)’s designations, driven by underwriting judgment, trigger prohibitive repricing and coverage expiry. This creates a persistent economic disruption from limited initial kinetic action, as seen previously in the Red Sea crisis where AWRPs rose 500 percent. The Hormuz incident scaled this concept by targeting limited bypass infrastructure and exploiting pre-existing market tightness in the VLCC fleet. This insurance weapon is replicable at other critical chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca and the Taiwan Strait, posing a significant threat to global trade.

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For People, Planet, and Progress: Perspectives from India's AI Impact Summit

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace  |  Nidhi Singh, Tejas Bharadwaj, Shruti Mittal, Adarsh Ranjan, Konark Bhandari, Charukeshi Bhatt

In February 2026, India hosted the AI Impact Summit, marking a significant pivot in global AI governance discourse from existential safety risks to tangible real-world applications for people, planet, and progress. As the first Global South nation to host such an event, India championed a "third way" in AI governance, prioritizing the needs of developing nations and last-mile diffusion. The summit's distinctive architecture, centered on impact across themes like human capital, inclusion, and social good, generated an ambitious declaration endorsed by over ninety-two countries. Key outcomes and discussions included the Global AI Impact Commons for cross-border learning, the strategic implications of India’s data center expansion on resource costs and compute sovereignty, and the imperative for rethinking linguistic inclusion in AI development beyond mere dataset representation. This collection of essays emphasizes equitable AI development principles, ensuring that diffusion and development outcomes are legitimate organizing principles for international cooperation, not secondary concerns to safety.

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India opens the door to private investment in nuclear energy, raising liability concerns

The Bulletin | Anand Kshirsagar 

In December 2025, India's Parliament passed the SHANTI Bill, a significant reform opening the nuclear energy sector to private and foreign investment, departing from strict central government control. This legislation aims to address an "investment crunch," meet India's escalating energy demands, and achieve ambitious climate goals, including 500 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030, 100 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2047, and economy-wide decarbonization by 2070. However, this policy shift raises profound strategic concerns, especially regarding nuclear accident liability. The new law drastically limits operator civil liability to approximately $319 million for the largest plants and weakens supplier accountability, a fraction of historical disaster costs like Fukushima. Critics argue this leaves taxpayers responsible for catastrophic costs and potentially exposes vulnerable communities, reviving fears reminiscent of the Bhopal gas tragedy. Further issues include insufficient regulatory independence, unclear disaster response, new security vulnerabilities, and potential erosion of nuclear self-reliance. The bill also lacks clarity on occupational safety and long-term nuclear waste management, altering the state's social contract.

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Mediator Or Strategic Opportunist? Pakistan Faces Scrutiny Over Its Role In Iran Conflict

Eurasia Review  |  Daud Khattak

Pakistan's strategic role as a mediator in the escalating Iran-United States conflict faces intense scrutiny following reports of Iranian military aircraft being parked at Pakistan's Nur Khan Air Base, potentially shielding them from US airstrikes. This incident has reignited long-standing US concerns about Islamabad's "double game" and its ability to balance close security ties with Washington while maintaining strategic relationships with US adversaries like Iran and China. Despite the Pakistani Foreign Ministry's denial of any military contingency, US officials and Senator Lindsey Graham have called for a reevaluation of Pakistan's mediating credibility. Islamabad, a nuclear-armed nation bordering Iran and Afghanistan, has actively sought to leverage its geopolitical position, including nominating former President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, to enhance its international visibility and secure strategic benefits. Analysts suggest Pakistan's actions are a tactical gamble to gain influence and economic dividends, navigating complex pressures from Washington, Kabul, and Riyadh, while critics in India and the US question its true intentions and alignment.

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The Coming Food Crisis in South Asia

The Diplomat  |  Santosh Nepal

Disruptions in oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, are precipitating an impending food crisis in South Asia by severely impacting fertilizer markets and agricultural systems. Modern agri-food systems are heavily energy-dependent, with nitrogen fertilizer production relying on natural gas. South Asian countries, including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, are highly vulnerable due to their significant reliance on imported fertilizers and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. Higher fuel costs and logistical disruptions exacerbate supply chain issues, leading to delayed deliveries and reduced availability of essential nutrients for crops. This situation mirrors the 2007-2008 global food crisis, where rising oil prices tripled fertilizer costs and surged global food prices by over 50 percent, pushing millions into extreme poverty. To mitigate this, South Asia requires immediate stabilization measures like strategic reserves, diversified import sources, and regional cooperation, alongside long-term strategies such as improving fertilizer use efficiency, investing in alternative nutrient sources, and strengthening domestic supply systems.

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Has Thailand’s People’s Party Lost The Support Of The Young?

Eurasia Review  |  Panarat Anamwathana

Thailand's progressive People's Party (PP), successor to the Move Forward Party (MFP), experienced a significant electoral setback in the February 2026 snap election, despite unexpectedly winning the 2023 general election. This analysis, utilizing Kid for Kids survey data (2022, 2025) and NIDA poll results (January 2026), reveals that while PP's ideological alignment among young Thais surged to nearly 80% by 2025, a controversial "Grand Compromise" in August 2025—where PP backed the pro-establishment Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) leader Anutin Charnvirakul as interim prime minister—caused disappointment among its youth base. Despite this perceived ideological betrayal, subsequent polls indicate PP retained substantial youth support, with over 61% backing its prime ministerial candidates and nearly 70% intending to vote for the party. This continued support suggests a blend of understanding for the party's difficult political position and a lack of viable progressive alternatives, posing a strategic challenge for PP to translate youth appeal into consistent electoral victories amidst entrenched institutional resistance.

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