America and Israel against Iran: Strategic results during the ceasefire

Clingendael  |  Hamidreza Azizi and Erwin van Veen

In April 2026, the strategic outcomes of the US and Israeli assault on Iran during an initial ceasefire revealed Iran's unexpected resilience and accurate warfighting assumptions, contrasting sharply with US/Israeli overconfidence in a rapid victory. Tehran successfully imposed significant costs on the United States by targeting Gulf states and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, which impacted global energy prices and US domestic politics, ultimately forcing a ceasefire. The article details how US and Israeli actions, including a failed special forces raid near Esfahan and extensive attacks on civilian infrastructure, failed to achieve Iran's surrender or collapse, instead leading to a more radical and assertive Iranian leadership. Ceasefire negotiations faced immediate challenges due to Israel's large-scale attack on Beirut, which Iran countered by maintaining the Hormuz closure until a broader ceasefire, including Lebanon, was secured. Despite absorbing an estimated USD 270 billion in damages and suffering 1,700 civilian deaths, Iran's strategic position remains strong, compelling the US to agree to the initial ceasefire.

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The Ties That Bind: Energy Connectivity in the Age of Geopolitical Turbulence - International Centre for

International Centre for Defence and Security

Europe's energy system is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by geopolitics, security concerns, and climate objectives. The EU has adopted a dual strategy to strengthen internal connectivity while deliberately reducing exposure to high-risk external dependencies, particularly on Russia, fundamentally reshaping post-2022 energy policy. Despite reframing renewable energy as a foundation for industrial strategy and geopolitical resilience, Europe’s grids remain underdeveloped, threatening EU credibility across climate, competitiveness, and security. The pursuit of energy independence through REPowerEU has advanced unevenly, with the EU remaining a significant buyer of Russian LNG and pipeline gas. Regional dynamics highlight tensions between independence and connectivity, exemplified by the Nordic-Baltic states' success versus Hungary and Slovakia's "malignant connectivity." Undersea infrastructure represents a critical vulnerability, susceptible to disruption due to physical exposure and weak legal protection. The report recommends strengthening regional connectivity, capacity coordination, and infrastructure protection, including closing legal gaps on undersea assets and tightening sanctions against Russia, alongside national-level actions like recognizing Finland as an anchor partner and integrating hybrid threats into energy planning.

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PRISM, Spring 2026, v. 11, no. 2

 PRISM, Spring 2026, v. 11, no. 2

When States Go Rogue: Criminal Tools in Hybrid Warfare
Agriculture as a Domain of Hybrid Warfare: China’s Strategy and U.S. Security Gaps
Understanding Cognitive Warfare: Beyond Information
Medical Intelligence in Support of Irregular Warfare
Strategic Culture – A Complex Model for a Complex Concept
Maskirovka and the Olympics: The Russian Choice to Initiate Conflict During the Olympic Games
Soft Power by Design: China’s United Front Strategy for Taiwan’s Civil Society in the Age of Irregular Warfare
Countering Hostile Chinese Lawfare: An Irregular Warfare-Based Approach
From Saguntum to Taipei: The Hazards of Strategic Ambiguity
Mapping the BRICS Plus Cryptocurrency Ecosystem: Is the BRICS Plus Bloc Effectively Using Cryptocurrency to Avoid Sanctions?
Equity Chain Mapping: Adapting Counter Threat Finance for Great Power Competition
Shadow Strategy: Air and Space Power in the Gray War
Controlling Command: Is AI Capturing the Ethics of War?
Preparing for Future Wars: Incongruent Beliefs on Autonomous Weapons
Warfare in the Technology Arena: Cost-Imposition and Maneuver in the Electromagnetic Battlespace

Could the Third Gulf War Become World War III?

RealClearDefense  |  Gedaliah Afterman & Roie Yellinek

The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran is increasingly viewed as a global confrontation rather than a self-contained Middle Eastern conflict, intersecting with the Russia-Ukraine war and broader great-power rivalry. Ukraine is sharing drone interception expertise with Gulf states, while Russia provides geolocation intelligence to Iran, and China offers economic backing. This emerging alignment suggests a dangerous shift towards bloc politics, where regional conflicts fuse into a wider systemic confrontation. Moscow leverages the Middle East crisis to erode Western cohesion, exploiting growing U.S. strategic burdens and NATO disputes. Initial miscalculations about a swift victory, mirroring errors in the 2022 Ukraine invasion, failed to account for the enemy's agency and adaptability. China, balancing its Gulf energy dependence with domestic economic pressures, seeks to enhance its regional relevance post-conflict, adopting a restrained neutrality. The confluence of the Strait of Hormuz's closure, the Ukraine war, and potential Taiwan tensions indicates this regional dispute is unfolding within a much broader global context of great-power competition and strategic chokepoints.

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5 Ways Iran Is Exploiting AI in Warfare

Foundation for Defense of Democracies  |  Leah Siskind

The Islamic Republic of Iran has emerged as a leading adopter of artificial intelligence (AI) for warfare, deception, and repression, employing a coherent five-pronged strategy that the United States is currently unprepared to counter. Iran weaponizes AI to enhance cyber operations against American targets, utilizing large language models for social engineering and developing novel malware, thereby reducing the time, talent, and language barriers for simultaneous attacks. Furthermore, Iran is integrating Russian AI advancements to make its Shahed-136 drones more lethal, particularly through AI-generated flight plans to evade air defenses. Tehran has also bombed American AI data centers in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, recognizing AI's foundational role in America's wartime advantage. Finally, Iran leverages AI-generated propaganda, including deepfakes, to manipulate war narratives globally.

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United States Cyber Force: A Defense Imperative

Foundation for Defense of Democracies  |  Dr. Erica Lonergan and RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery

The U.S. military's current cyber force generation system is critically flawed, failing to recruit, train, promote, and retain talented cyber warriors effectively. Each service—Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines—operates independent, uncoordinated systems, leading to a severe shortage of qualified personnel at U.S. Cyber Command (CYBERCOM). This inefficiency results in officers without keyboard experience commanding cyber units and inconsistent skill acquisition among trainees. Based on over 75 interviews with military officers, the study reveals low retention rates due to inconsistent policies and institutional cultures that undervalue cyber expertise. Resolving these issues necessitates establishing a new, independent U.S. Cyber Force, mirroring the historical creation of the Air Force and Space Force. Such a force would standardize recruitment, training, promotion, and retention, establish dedicated cyber education institutions, and prioritize rapid acquisition of cyber warfare systems, initially comprising approximately 10,000 personnel. This approach is deemed superior to alternatives like making CYBERCOM a SOCOM-like entity or having it assume force generation, which would break precedent and overwhelm its leadership.

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Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism? An Assessment

International Centre for Counter-Terrorism  |  Marc Sommers, Mai Nasrallah

The field of Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) is critically assessed for its efficacy against violent extremist organizations (VEOs), particularly given the persistent failure of traditional 'hard power' counter-terrorism (CT) approaches to halt VEO expansion globally since the September 11, 2001 attacks. P/CVE, introduced as a 'soft-side complement' to CT two decades ago, now faces scrutiny regarding its appropriate international response to resilient VEOs that exploit local frustrations and government weaknesses. This report addresses two pressing questions: what constitutes an effective P/CVE strategy on the international stage, and how can limited resources be optimally invested, especially following funding reductions from key governments like the US and UK? Analysis acknowledges significant constraints, including unstable security environments, the influence of host governments, and the inherent difficulty in evaluating P/CVE program success in preventing or countering VEO activities.

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How Much More Power Can the U.S. Grid Provide for AI? Projections and Policy Implications for 2030

RAND

The United States' electricity grid is projected to add approximately 82 gigawatts (GW) of net available capacity by 2030, comprising 33 GW from front-of-the-meter (FTM) resources and 49 GW from behind-the-meter (BTM) resources, according to RAND research. This assessment accounts for project completion rates, retirements, and resource reliability, translating planned additions into reliable capacity estimates. The anticipated growth in electricity demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers is substantial, rapid, and geographically concentrated, posing significant challenges to grid adequacy. While most FTM additions are concentrated in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), BTM capacity is more evenly distributed, playing a crucial role in reducing peak grid demand. Policymakers must prioritize locational adequacy, especially in regions with limited net capacity additions, and incorporate realistic project assessments and diversified resource portfolios to manage the uncertainty of future large-load growth. Further research is needed to refine estimates by including transmission expansion scenarios and more granular locational data.

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Interactive Tour: Russian and TV BRICS

StoryMaps ArcGIS  |  Nataliya Bugayova, Kateryna Stepanenko, Jacob Spencer, Kristofers Krumins, Sofia Walsh, and Tetiana Trach

Russia's cognitive warfare infrastructure is extensively detailed through an interactive map showcasing its cooperation agreements with foreign media outlets. The Kremlin actively cultivates a global network of foreign media, content creators, and journalists by forming partnerships, conducting outreach, and fostering media education. This initiative aims to expand Russia's media conglomerate, as further examined in a comprehensive ISW report. The interactive tool provides a visual representation of these strategic agreements. Technical guidance is included for users to ensure optimal map functionality, addressing browser compatibility issues and recommending hardware acceleration. For additional insights, ISW can be followed on Twitter @TheStudyofWar, and media inquiries can be directed to press@understandingwar.org. This analysis is a collaborative effort by multiple experts from the Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project.

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Ontological Foundations of Cognitive Warfare

CCDCOE

This study introduces a structure-centric conceptualization of cognitive warfare, shifting analytical focus from observable effects, actors, and technological instruments to the systemic conditions of cognitive vulnerability. Central to this approach are systemic invariants—epistemic, axiological, identificatory, social, and teleological structures—that sustain the coherence, identity, and adaptive capacity of complex socio-technical systems. Cognitive warfare is redefined as the deliberate targeting of these systemic invariants by exploiting inter-layer linkages within a system's multiplex architecture, with the strategic aim of inducing cognitive decoherence. Decoherence represents a structurally conditioned and potentially irreversible erosion of cognitive sovereignty, whereby a system loses its capacity for coherent perception and analysis of reality, development, adaptation, and self-protection as an integrated cognitive order. This multiplex perspective enables the differentiation of vulnerability logics, offering practical implications for developing tailored cognitive protection strategies and establishing a foundation for diagnosing systemic vulnerabilities and advancing proactive strategies for cognitive resilience.

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The Strait of Hormuz Under Pressure: Asymmetric Naval War and Signs of Elite Fragmentation in Iran

Hudson Institute  |  Can Kasapoğlu

The Strait of Hormuz is experiencing heightened geopolitical pressure, primarily driven by Iran's evolving asymmetric naval warfare doctrine and discernible signs of elite fragmentation within its leadership. Iran's strategic posture in this critical maritime chokepoint relies heavily on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) and the conventional Navy (IRIN), which are increasingly employing swarming tactics, fast attack craft, and sophisticated anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. These tactics aim to challenge the naval superiority of external powers and project regional influence, creating a volatile operational environment. Concurrently, internal political fissures and potential power struggles among Iran's ruling elite could lead to more erratic and aggressive foreign policy decisions, further destabilizing the region. The confluence of these external military challenges and internal political dynamics poses a significant threat to global energy security and international maritime commerce. This situation underscores the urgent need for international stakeholders to develop comprehensive strategies for de-escalation, deterrence, and safeguarding freedom of navigation through this vital waterway.

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From Ballistics to Cruise: Türkiye’s Missile Developments

IISS  |  Sıtkı Egeli, Arda Mevlütoğlu

Türkiye has significantly advanced its missile capabilities, driven by regional threats and a strategic imperative for defense-industrial autonomy. Historically reliant on NATO, Ankara shifted its posture after the Iran–Iraq and Gulf Wars, recognizing vulnerabilities to missile attacks and the limitations of Alliance arrangements. This led to a twin-track approach: importing systems while building an indigenous design and manufacturing base, notably under Roketsan and TUBITAK SAGE. Türkiye acceded to the Missile Technology Control Regime in 1997, yet pursued longer-range ballistic options, with presidential backing for missiles exceeding 800 km and even 2,000 km. Its cruise-missile program, initially shelved, restarted in 2013, bolstered by domestic engine development and adaptable for various platforms, including uncrewed systems. The Russia–Ukraine war and Iran–Israel exchanges underscore the operational value of precision weapons. Türkiye's investment in a Somali spaceport for long-range testing highlights its commitment to further ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic R&D, transforming its guided-weapons sector.

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Hybrid times: War and peace in military innovation studies

DOI | Emilie Berthelsen

Military innovation studies traditionally differentiate between organizational change occurring in peace and war, a dualistic approach limiting understanding in the contemporary security environment. Persistent competition, "grey zone" conflicts, and an eroding distinction between war and peace necessitate a re-evaluation of these embedded theoretical assumptions. Grissom’s four schools of military innovation—civil-military relations, inter-service politics, intra-service politics, and organizational culture—alongside a fifth school focused on bottom-up, wartime adaptation, are systematically reviewed. Common context-dependent assumptions about change emerge, often portraying it as either strategic, top-down, and episodic during peacetime, or emergent, bottom-up, and continuous during conflict. A shift from this contrasting dualistic conceptualization towards a complementary duality-based understanding acknowledges the synergistic interplay of stability and change mechanisms across the entire conflict continuum. This offers a more nuanced framework for studying how military organizations innovate and adapt in an era demanding dynamic stability.

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When and How Will the War in Ukraine End?

RealClearDefense  |  Pavlo Kuliuk

Current political meetings regarding the war in Ukraine are not genuine peace negotiations, which are inherently secret, but rather political maneuvering. The original U.S.-mediated peace plan between the EU and Russia failed due to European non-recognition of U.S. mediation. This led the U.S. to direct talks with Russia, weakening Europe and prolonging the conflict. The article posits that the wars in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf are interconnected, with the U.S. strategically using Russia against the EU and Iran against Gulf states, primarily targeting European influence. Ukraine is portrayed as a territory occupied by European and Russian forces since 2014. The war's resolution hinges on Ukraine's complete transfer to either Russian or European control, or the restoration of independence. Given Europe's reluctance to offer concessions and Russia's battlefield dominance in depleting Ukrainian "Euro-collaborators," the author concludes that Ukraine will likely fall entirely under Russian control through military victory, not negotiation. Widespread draft evasion by Ukrainian men is cited as a factor contributing to Russia's strategic advantage.

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India, the United States, and Democratic Values in the International Order

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Manjari Chatterjee Miller

India's historical partnership with the United States advanced due to converging strategic interests, like countering China and economic alignment, rather than shared democratic ideals, which mainly served as background affinity. Recent accusations of democratic backsliding in both nations, particularly India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the second Trump administration, have reduced democratic values to a bilateral irritant. This article posits democratic values represent a crucial shared structural challenge for the fraying liberal international order. It reframes the inquiry to assess India's engagement with democratizing norms within the global system, beyond domestic report cards. Sarang Shidore highlights India's multialignment strategy to democratize global governance, creating synergy and friction. Kate Sullivan de Estrada maps India's selective participation in the liberal order’s security architecture, deepening cooperation while maintaining autonomy. Constantino Xavier examines India's potential as a democratic tech power, anchoring an alternative to China’s model, though jeopardized by Washington's retreat from democratic coalition-building. Assessing U.S.-India convergence requires focusing on their commitment to champion international democratic norms.

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How India Is Becoming a Nuclear Weapons Powerhouse

National Interest  |  Harrison Kass

India is significantly modernizing its nuclear arsenal, aiming to enhance its deterrent capabilities while adhering to a No First Use (NFU) doctrine of credible minimum deterrence. The country maintains a comprehensive nuclear triad, comprising land-based Agni missile families (Agni-V capable of reaching Beijing), sea-based SSBNs (INS Arihant, Arighaat, Aridhaman) equipped with SLBMs ensuring a survivable second-strike, and air-based fighter aircraft (Mirage 2000H, Jaguar, Su-30MKI, Rafale) capable of delivering nuclear gravity bombs or cruise missiles. This modernization includes plans for the Agni-VI missile with 10,000-12,000 km range and MIRV capability, expanded SSBN launch tubes, and the development of hypersonic systems. Strategically, India's enhanced capabilities keep China and Pakistan in check, reinforcing regional stability, but also introduce heightened escalation risks due to the close proximity of India and Pakistan. This transition signifies India's move towards global reach, strengthening deterrence and adding complexity to global strategic dynamics.

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ISKP’s Exploitation of the Af-Pak Border War

Small Wars Journal | Uma Miskinyar

The Iran–Afghanistan–Pakistan corridor experiences a critical overlap of regional conflicts, profoundly reshaping militant dynamics in Balochistan. Since early 2025, the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) expanded operations into Pakistan’s Balochistan, initiating direct conflict with the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). Pakistan declared "open war" on Afghan Taliban authorities in February 2026, intensifying cross-border strikes along the Durand Line. ISKP exploits this instability and Pakistan's divided military attention to delegitimize the state and undermine BLA's nationalist appeal, evidenced by its May 2025 propaganda video. The 2021 U.S. and NATO withdrawal reduced intelligence visibility, complicating counterterrorism. The Afghan Taliban maintains "strategic ambiguity" toward the BLA, while the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) forms tactical alliances with Baloch insurgents, creating a "blurred combat zone." ISKP leverages digital platforms and Balochi-speaking intermediaries to propagate its jihadist narrative, challenging BLA's influence and posing a significant "triple threat" to U.S. counterterrorism interests.

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Strategic Spaces of the Sino-Nepali Borderlands: Making and Breaking Trans-Himalayan Trade Relations

Strategic Space NBR  |  Galen Murton

Chinese infrastructure investment and development in Nepal are critical to the People’s Republic of China’s territorial integrity and strategically extend the Chinese Communist Party’s power into sensitive South Asian spaces. A grounded geographic review reveals a historical link between border resolutions and Chinese-facilitated infrastructure, an ongoing "corridorization" of Nepal, and persistent border oscillations challenging local mobility while escaping PRC controls. Nepal established diplomatic relations with China in 1955, leading to border demarcation and early "infrastructural relations" like the 1961 China-Nepal Highway Construction Agreement. From 2000-2020, transborder infrastructure development and foreign direct investment rapidly scaled up under the Belt and Road Initiative, with Chinese FDI surpassing Indian FDI in 2014. Following the 2015 earthquakes, Beijing provided unprecedented humanitarian aid and financial commitments. A 2015–16 Indian-backed blockade at Nepal’s southern border prompted China to deliver emergency fuel, marking a significant geopolitical realignment for Nepal, India, and China.

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Pakistan’s Military Consolidation Under Munir Faces Critical Challenges

Carnegie Endowment| Zoha Waseem and Yasser Kureshi

Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, Asim Munir, has significantly consolidated military power over three years, formally entrenching its dominant role within the constitutional framework. Munir leveraged strong international ties, including gaining U.S. President Donald Trump's trust, fostering relationships with Arab and Gulf states, and mediating between Iran and the United States. Domestically, the military utilized a weak civilian government, media control, and repression to silence dissent, exemplified by the imprisonment of Imran Khan and other political opponents. The regime’s “hard state” approach, an uncompromising militarized doctrine, targets internal security and political management, expanding political prisoners and criminalizing assemblies. Critical challenges persist in Balochistan, where a separatist insurgency intensifies, threatening foreign investments like China’s CPEC and potentially triggering further India-Pakistan confrontations following the May 2025 conflict. Simultaneously, security forces battle the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, exacerbating instability. The 27th constitutional amendment further solidified Munir’s authority by creating a Chief of Defence Forces role, granting formal operational command over all services, aiming to insulate military leadership from political uncertainty.

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Lombok Strait As An Alternative To The Malacca Strait: Prospects And Challenges – Analysis

Eurasia Review  |  Muhammad Shalahuddin Al Ayyubi and Dina Purnamaningtyas

Indonesia's Lombok Strait holds significant strategic importance as a crucial alternative to the Malacca Strait for global shipping. Geographically positioned between Bali and Lombok, it acts as a vital buffer connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans, offering superior depth and width suitable for supertankers and other giant vessels that struggle with Malacca's shallower waters. In 2023, the strait recorded over 21,547 ship passages, facilitating substantial trade, including significant iron exports from Australia to China. Its potential extends beyond trade, promising increased maritime revenue and tourism opportunities between Bali and Lombok if infrastructure and logistics are enhanced. Since 2020, Indonesia has implemented a Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) to ensure navigational safety, prevent collisions, and protect the rich marine ecosystems. However, challenges such as potential pollution, waste management, and the need for human resources and infrastructure optimization remain to fully realize the strait's productive future.

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At the Trump-Xi Summit, China Will Have the Upper Hand

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Rush Doshi, Chris McGuire, Heidi E. Crebo-Rediker, David Sacks, David M. Hart

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping convened in Beijing on May 14–15, with China holding a strategic advantage in a summit delayed by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. The meeting occurred amidst global economic instability driven by high oil prices and a fragile U.S.-China trade truce. Beijing's confidence stemmed from the U.S.'s Iran conflict and China's solidified dominance in critical minerals and global energy supply. Xi Jinping's belief that "the East is rising" was reinforced by China's success in countering Trump's previous trade escalations, notably by threatening rare earth mineral restrictions. Economic discussions saw China aiming to consolidate its technological position and revive its economy, while the U.S. sought symbolic trade wins. Taiwan was a critical issue, with Beijing pushing for U.S. policy shifts, including an explicit statement opposing independence. AI dialogue focused on safety, which China viewed as an opportunity for technology access to narrow its gap with the U.S., underscoring a need for targeted dialogue with maximum pressure from Washington.

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China's Malacca Dilemma, After the Hormuz Blockade

Foreign Policy | Chee Meng Tan

China confronts a significant strategic vulnerability concerning its energy security, highlighted by the "Malacca Dilemma" in the wake of a hypothetical Hormuz Strait blockade. Beijing's heavy reliance on maritime oil imports traversing crucial chokepoints presents a profound challenge to its economic stability and national resilience. The analysis suggests that Western-dominated insurance premiums, rather than conventional military force, represent a highly effective means to disrupt China's vital oil supplies. Such economic leverage could escalate shipping costs to prohibitive levels, effectively choking off Beijing's access to energy without direct military engagement. This indirect, financial pressure poses a more insidious threat than traditional naval blockades, forcing China to reassess its strategic planning for maintaining uninterrupted resource flows. The reliance on global shipping and financial infrastructures underscores a critical dependency that complicates China’s pursuit of comprehensive energy self-sufficiency and geopolitical influence, demanding innovative solutions beyond mere military might.

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Legos at War: Iranian Information Operations

Small Wars Journal  |  Lawrence E. Cline

Iran has significantly escalated its information operations (IO) campaign in response to recent US military activities, demonstrating increasing sophistication in the online information environment. Key to this effort is "Explosive Media," an ostensibly independent Iranian company producing widely viewed Lego-style animated videos with hip-hop soundtracks, often featuring themes of US casualties, the Epstein Files, and Israeli influence over American politics. Despite YouTube removing their content, these videos persist on platforms like X and other social media, achieving significant global reach. Iranian embassies worldwide have also actively engaged in IO, posting memes and AI-generated content that mock US leadership and promote Iranian power, indicating a possible internal competition for impact. Iran’s employment of AI for propaganda and its 'white' strategic communications, including visuals of human chains around civilian targets, underscore a multifaceted approach. The campaign's effectiveness is evident in its ability to quickly integrate emerging US controversies into messaging and has prompted US embassies to request more proactive countermeasures against this influential Iranian narrative.

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The Ceasefire in the War on Iran: Determinants and Prospects

The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies  |  The Unit for Political Studies

The United States and Iran achieved a ceasefire on April 8, 2026, ending a 40-day military confrontation that had brought the region to the brink of a wider conflict and an unprecedented global energy crisis. Pakistan brokered this crucial agreement, which stipulates a two-week suspension of hostilities and the commencement of negotiations in Islamabad on April 10, 2026, aiming for a permanent peace. This diplomatic breakthrough occurred merely hours before a US deadline, issued by President Donald Trump, for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, failing which Iranian energy facilities and other critical infrastructure faced imminent targeting. The brief war underscored significant geopolitical tensions and the precarious nature of stability in the Middle East, highlighting the potential for rapid escalation with global repercussions.

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U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities

The New York Times  |  Adam Entous, Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan

Early May 2026 U.S. intelligence assessments reveal Iran's military capabilities remain substantially intact, directly contradicting public assertions by the Trump administration. Classified findings indicate Iran has restored operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the critical Strait of Hormuz, posing a significant threat to American warships and oil tankers. Furthermore, Iran retains approximately 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, encompassing both ballistic and cruise missiles, and about 70 percent of its mobile launchers nationwide. Intelligence also confirms roughly 90 percent of Iran's underground missile storage and launch facilities are now partially or fully operational. These detailed assessments underscore that Iran's military is far stronger than President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have publicly claimed, maintaining a robust regional threat posture despite rhetoric of its decimation.

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Top Pentagon tech officials optimistic Mythos-style AI tools will improve cyber defense

Breaking Defense  |  Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

Pentagon's top tech officials, including CTO Emil Michael and Assistant Secretary for Cyber Policy Katherine Sutton, express confidence that advanced AI tools like Anthropic's Mythos will revolutionize cyber defense. During the SCSP AI+Expo, they highlighted AI's capacity to identify and patch vulnerable code in "minutes to seconds," drastically reducing the "weeks to days" required by human intervention. This rapid remediation capability is essential for overcoming decades of technical debt within the Department of Defense's legacy systems. While acknowledging that AI could also accelerate exploitation, Michael underscored the critical need for the nation to harden its systems. The officials downplayed a dispute with Anthropic, asserting that Mythos represents merely the initial wave of potent cyber-capable AI models from various US tech firms. The Pentagon is diversifying its AI partnerships, evident by eight leading tech companies recently gaining clearance to deploy their AI on classified networks, ensuring no single model dictates future defense capabilities.

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The US Military Is Failing: Facts Need To Be Faced

Phillips's Newsletter  |  Phillips P. OBrien

Zelensky publicly challenged former President Trump concerning a promised 1000-prisoner exchange, reportedly brokered by Trump on Putin's behalf, which Russian authorities swiftly disavowed following a recent Red Square parade. This bold move by Ukraine raises critical questions about American commitment and Trump's credibility, especially given his subsequent silence on the matter, suggesting a potential alignment with Russian interests. Concurrently, Iran decisively rejected the Trump administration's peace plan, countering with its own "victory plan" that demands an immediate ceasefire, assertion of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of all U.S. sanctions, reparations, and a significantly truncated nuclear moratorium without facility dismantlement. This rejection contradicts the White House's narrative of Iranian compromise, highlighting a persistent stalemate and the ongoing possibility of renewed hostilities as the U.S. government responds with threats. These international developments serve as a critical backdrop for an impending analysis of the US military's perceived shortcomings.

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Checkmate in Iran

The Atlantic  |  Robert Kagan

A hypothetical confrontation with Iran portends an unprecedented strategic defeat for the United States, far more profound than past setbacks in Vietnam or Afghanistan. Unlike those conflicts, a loss against Iran would be irreparable, permanently altering America's global position and influence. Control over the Strait of Hormuz would solidify Iran's status as a key regional and international power. This outcome would significantly strengthen the roles of China and Russia, who are allied with Iran, while simultaneously undermining the credibility and perceived capabilities of the United States. Such a defeat, rather than showcasing American strength, would expose its unreliability and inability to achieve its strategic objectives, triggering a global reevaluation by both allies and adversaries. Nations would be forced to adjust their strategic calculations, acknowledging a substantially diminished American role and a newly empowered Iranian-led bloc, fundamentally reshaping the international order.

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Trump Mulls Hormuz Operation As Iran’s ‘Stupid’ Proposal Leaves Truce ‘On Life Support’

Eurasia Review  |  Arab News

US President Donald Trump is contemplating reactivating "Project Freedom" in the Strait of Hormuz amidst escalating tensions with Iran after a proposed truce faltered. Trump expressed a strong commitment to pressing Tehran until it "surrenders," even claiming Iran requires US assistance for nuclear stockpile extraction. The proposed "Project Freedom" would expand beyond its initial scope of escorting commercial vessels, having been briefly suspended for diplomatic overtures. Trump dismissed Iran's response to a US peace plan as a "stupid proposal," likening the ceasefire's viability to a dire one percent chance. Iran's demands included war damages compensation, an end to the naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, and removal of oil export restrictions, which Trump deemed "totally unacceptable" on Truth Social. This rejection by Trump led to a sharp rise in oil prices, signaling a potential continuation of the 10-week conflict and prolonged disruptions in the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway.

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Chief Executives to Accompany Trump to China

The New York Times  |  Tyler Pager

President Trump, in May 2026, traveled to China accompanied by a significant delegation of 17 American chief executives, including prominent figures like Elon Musk of Tesla and Tim Cook of Apple. This high-profile visit aimed to engage Chinese leader Xi Jinping in discussions concerning the establishment of a board of investment and a board of trade between the two nations, signifying a strategic effort to manage and potentially expand economic ties. A notable late addition to the delegation was Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, whose presence underscores the critical global competition in artificial intelligence and the complex geopolitical landscape surrounding advanced chip technology. Huang had actively lobbied Washington and Beijing for nearly a year to facilitate Nvidia's sales of AI chips to China, highlighting the dual-use nature of such technologies. Elon Musk's inclusion also marked a significant rehabilitation of his relationship with the former president, having previously served as a top advisor. The diverse industrial representation within the delegation indicates a comprehensive approach to U.S.-China economic relations, despite underlying strategic tensions.

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Trump’s Iran Strategy Collides with Hormuz Reality

Gcaptain  |  Eric Martin and Magdalena Del Valle

President Donald Trump's revised Iran strategy now prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, deferring complex negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. This shift instigated renewed US-Iran clashes, with US warships protecting merchant vessels and Iran attacking UAE oil facilities and US Navy ships. Despite hostilities, US officials declared the war over, focusing on diplomacy to secure navigation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio preferred a deal to fully open the Straits, pushing back other critical discussions. Ongoing Iranian drone and missile attacks on US destroyers, met with US retaliatory strikes, highlight the administration's difficulty controlling regional events. Critics compare this to past Trump-era peace efforts, which often postponed difficult resolutions. Iran has intensified its control over Hormuz, imposing new shipping protocols and collecting tolls, leveraging its position to impact the global economy through disrupted energy flows. The US urgently seeks to restore the strait's pre-war operational status.

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The AI Labor Debate: Three Views on the Future of Work

Carnegie Endowment | Teddy Tawil

Artificial intelligence's future impact on global labor markets sparks a significant debate, with three primary perspectives emerging: the 'alarmed,' the 'patient,' and the 'excited.' The 'alarmed' predict rapid, widespread white-collar job displacement within a decade, citing accelerating AI capabilities, seamless adoption by employers seeking cost reductions, and insufficient new job creation. This view is supported by recent studies showing AI outperforming humans in complex tasks like coding and legal analysis, and early evidence of employment declines among young workers in AI-exposed fields. Conversely, the 'patient' foresee gradual displacement and complementarity over multiple decades due to technological limitations and adoption barriers. The 'excited' believe AI will generate more new human-centric opportunities than it eliminates, driven by massive economic surplus. The core disputes center on the pace of AI progress versus adoption barriers and the strength of AI-driven job creation. Policymakers must track critical indicators and prepare robust policies, including improved data collection, wage insurance, and applied training programs, to navigate these uncertain scenarios.

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Building the AI Workforce: The Math Behind the Pipeline

CSIS  |  Shruti Sharma

The United States' strategic advantage in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is intrinsically linked to its capacity to cultivate a robust and skilled workforce, a challenge quantitatively explored by this analysis. The piece meticulously examines the 'math behind the pipeline,' detailing the critical educational and professional pathways from STEM engagement to advanced AI research and application. It quantifies existing deficiencies in the talent supply chain, including university enrollment in AI-relevant fields, graduation rates, and the retention of top experts within the domestic ecosystem. The analysis further delves into demographic trends, identifies crucial skill gaps, and assesses the impact of global competition on the U.S. AI talent pool. Strategic implications include data-driven recommendations for increased public and private investment in education, incentives for workforce training, and streamlined policies to secure and retain highly skilled AI professionals, vital for maintaining national security and economic leadership.

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Who Will Make Money on AI?

Center for a New American Security | Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease

Global competition in artificial intelligence (AI) technology drives significant strategic and economic considerations, particularly concerning which entities—nations, corporations, or specific sectors—are poised to capitalize financially on its development and deployment. An analysis from the Center for a New American Security on this topic would typically explore the implications for national security, economic power shifts, and technological leadership. Key areas of discussion often include the role of government investment, private sector innovation dynamics, intellectual property ownership, and the complex global supply chain for AI components and specialized talent. Understanding the financial incentives and profit centers within the AI ecosystem is crucial for policymakers to formulate effective industrial strategies, foster domestic innovation, and mitigate risks associated with foreign technological dominance. This strategic perspective would delineate potential winners and losers in this evolving technological race, impacting future geopolitical alignments, defense capabilities, and the overall balance of power. Identifying the economic leverage points in AI is essential for maintaining a competitive edge and ensuring long-term national security interests.

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How can we best evaluate agentic AI?

Brookings |  Elham Tabassi 

On October 14, 2025, a workshop convened experts to address critical gaps in evaluating agentic AI, which operates autonomously, interacts with environments, and pursues open-ended goals, unlike static or narrowly scoped models. Developing a research roadmap for measurement is essential for building evidence-based governance frameworks. Key themes include the lack of a shared definition for “agentic AI,” suggesting an understanding of agency as a spectrum rather than a binary property. Significant measurement challenges exist because agentic systems exhibit stochastic behavior, and their performance cannot be fully characterized by contained benchmarks, necessitating real-world field testing and domain-specific assessments. Challenges inherited from large language model evaluation, such as training data contamination and overfitting to benchmark tasks, are exacerbated. Future research must apply measurement science to AI, simulate human-agent interaction, and evaluate memory-enabled personalized agents, long-horizon tasks, and multi-agent systems for effective governance.

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