26 June 2026

The Red Corridor: The Anatomy of India’s 59-Year-Old Maoist Insurgency

Small Wars Journal | Pradeep Barua

India's decades-long Naxalite insurgency, which has claimed thousands of lives and ravaged large swathes of the country, originated in March 1967 with tribal peasants seizing land in West Bengal's Naxalbari block. Led by Charu Majumdar and influenced by Mao Zedong Thought, the movement spread rapidly, forming the "Red Corridor" across central and southern India, affecting over 200 districts by the early 2000s.

The Inevitability Trap: How Narrative Reframing of Destiny Shapes Cognitive Warfare in the Taiwan Strait

Small Wars Journal | Tang Meng Kit

The People's Republic of China (PRC) employs inevitability narratives as a core tactic in cognitive warfare against Taiwan, aiming to portray unification as an unavoidable historical outcome and resistance as futile, a message President Xi Jinping reinforced in his 2026 New Year address. This message is amplified through digital campaigns, with Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB) identifying over 45,000 coordinated fake accounts and two million pieces of disinformation promoting China's unstoppable rise and unreliable foreign support.

China is counting its wins from the Iran war

CNN | Simone McCarthy

Nearly four months after the US and Israel attacked Iran, Beijing successfully weathered the ensuing energy crisis and strategically positioned itself as a global champion of peace. China's diplomatic clout significantly rose, with President Xi Jinping hosting multiple foreign leaders and earning repeated praise from US President Donald Trump for its neutrality during the conflict.

US fears China has obtained vital AI machine from Europe

The Telegraph  |  Hans van Leeuwen

The US Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, has reportedly expressed concerns that Dutch semiconductor giant ASML may have illegally shipped an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine to China, a major violation of US export controls. These machines are critical for advanced chip manufacturing, and their transfer to restricted markets like China is banned.

China’s New Structure At Scarborough Reef Sparks Alarm And Triggers Collective Response

Eurasia Review

China's apparent installation of a floating structure at Scarborough Reef in late May 2026 has sparked alarm, suggesting Beijing may be preparing a permanent presence at this sensitive South China Sea flashpoint. Philippine officials confirmed a 6-by-6 meter floating platform with personnel and an antenna, triggering diplomatic protests from Manila and increased vigilance from Allies and Partners.

Systems Over Steel: How China is Redefining Amphibious Armor Survivability

Modern War Institute | Joshua Arostegui

China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) maintains a sustained commitment to amphibious armor, exemplified by the discovery of a new mine-clearing variant on its successor chassis to the Type-05 series. This defies Western strategic consensus, which focuses on asymmetric measures like Taiwan's "hellscape" defense using autonomous loitering munitions against vulnerable amphibious vehicles.

Fixing America's Navy

Real Clear Defense | Gary Anderson

The United States Navy faces its first significant post-WWII threat to naval superiority from China, which aims to project global naval power beyond the South China Sea. China's rapid shipbuilding outpaces the U.S., while the U.S. fleet is spread thin and decommissioning Ticonderoga-class destroyers without replacement. Despite these challenges, the U.S.

China wins the Iran war without firing a shot

Asia Times  |  Hriday Sarma

The signing of the first-stage US-Iran memorandum of understanding, noted by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian, signals a strategic shift primarily benefiting China, which has positioned itself to profit from the US-Iran peace without direct military involvement. This agreement is crucial for restoring global energy flows and ending regional conflict, particularly impacting the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy corridor.

The ‘Tibet Aid’ Cadres System as a Mechanism for Political Control in Tibet

The Diplomat  |  Kalsang Dolma

The Tibet Aid Program (TAP), launched in 1994 for economic development in China's Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), has transformed under Xi Jinping from simple economic assistance to a mechanism for intensified cultural and political control. This shift is implemented through the 15th Five Year Plan (2026-2030), "group style" aid cohorts, and leveraging frontier governance for Han Chinese cadres' career advancement.

Uncertainties In US-Taiwan Defence Relations – Analysis

Eurasia Review  |  P. K. Balachandran

Taiwan faces growing uncertainties in its defense relations with the United States as Washington reevaluates the island's strategic importance amid closer ties with Beijing to mitigate economic challenges. China's massive military buildup has shifted the cross-Strait balance, dramatically increasing the costs and risks of a US intervention, leading Brookings to suggest replacing "strategic ambiguity" with explicit non-intervention.

China Could Win Taiwan Without Fighting: The Cost of Trump’s Equivocation

Foreign Affairs | Richard Haass and David Sacks

Chinese leader Xi Jinping is pursuing a strategy to gain control of Taiwan without military conflict, leveraging U.S. President Donald Trump's equivocation on Taiwan policy. During a recent Beijing summit, Xi warned Trump that mishandling Taiwan would jeopardize bilateral relations, aiming to redefine "proper handling" by the U.S.

Trump Is Tired of Arming Allies. This Country Is Stepping Up.

Politico  |  Catherine Kim

The United States' retreat from global security commitments, particularly under former President Donald Trump, has created a significant opportunity for South Korea to emerge as a major global arms exporter. This echoes the 1969 Nixon Doctrine, which spurred South Korea's self-reliant defense industry development. Now the 9th-largest arms exporter, South Korea is rapidly ascending, projecting $37 billion in combined revenue for its top four defense companies by 2026.

US lifts sanctions on Iranian oil exports

The Telegraph  |  Alexander Butler, Chanel Zagon, Emily Smith

The United States has lifted sanctions on Iranian oil exports for two months, issuing a general license through the US Treasury as peace talks continue in Switzerland. This move fulfills a key promise under a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, authorizing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian oil until August 21.

Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb provides lessons for defending US bases

Business Insider  |  Chris Panella

Ukraine's June 2025 Operation Spiderweb, which saw Kyiv deploy over 100 drones to strike dozens of grounded aircraft at Russian air bases, is now informing US Army preparations for defending its own critical infrastructure. The US Army recently conducted a tabletop exercise and a summit at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to assess future war challenges where enemies could target bases with cyber and drone strikes to cripple forces pre-conflict.

You Can’t Be a Superpower Without Allies

The New York Times  |  Oona A. Hathaway

The war in Iran, despite the United States spending $29 billion, has concluded with the U.S. in a weaker position, largely because it attempted to act unilaterally with only Israel. President Trump's failure to seek U.N. Security Council approval rendered the war illegal, making it "radioactive" for traditional allies.

Army combines 2 units into new 7th Infantry Division

Stars and Stripes  |  Gary Warner

The U.S. Army redesignated the 7th Infantry Division as the 7th Infantry Division (Multi-Domain Command-Pacific) on June 18, 2026, at Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington. This merger combines the traditional ground force capabilities of the 7th Infantry Division with the new and emerging capabilities of the formerly separate 1st Multi-Domain Task Force, created in 2020, which includes space, electronic warfare, cyber information, sustainment, and protection.

Why Can’t America Make More Interceptor Missiles?

National Interest  |  Harrison Kass

America's rapid depletion of anti-air interceptor missile inventory, particularly SM-2, SM-6, PAC-3, and AIM-120 AMRAAMs, now influences broader strategic planning, especially in Asia. Operations in the Middle East, including Operation Rough Rider, Operation Epic Fury against Iran, and consistent support for Israeli air defenses post-October 7, have consumed advanced interceptors far faster than the US defense industrial base can replace them.

Secret Vetting and Blocked Promotions: Inside Hegseth’s War on Diversity

The New York Times  |  Greg Jaffe, Kate Kelly

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has blocked the promotions of at least 40 senior officers to general and admiral ranks this year, with approximately half being women or members of minority groups. Rear Adm. Stephen D. Barnett, a Black officer, was denied promotion despite being the Navy's top choice to lead the command overseeing Navy bases at home and abroad, and successfully managing the aftermath of a fuel spill that sickened thousands in Hawaii.

JD Vance Is Wrong: Israel Is Not Just Another Ally

National Interest  |  Ahmed Charai

Vice President JD Vance's assertion that Israel is "an ally like any other" is flawed, dismissing the fears of America's most reliable Middle Eastern partner and undermining deterrence. His public impatience with Israel and Gulf allies, while granting diplomatic patience to Iran, contradicts how a great power reassures friends.

What the Iran war cost the Pentagon, the economy — and Trump

CNN  |  Haley Britzky

The US war with Iran has halted, with an agreement signed for 60 days of further negotiations, despite President Donald Trump's claims of victory regarding oil flow, Iran's nuclear status, and economic prosperity. An objective analysis reveals a more nuanced picture, with the conflict costing the Department of Defense approximately $40 billion and other agencies $1 billion, per CSIS preliminary data.

‘Game Changer’? Too Soon to Tell. But Ukraine Flexed in Striking Moscow.

The New York Times  |  SiobhΓ‘n O’Grady

Ukraine's recent drone attack on Moscow, which set part of the city's largest oil refinery ablaze and sent a fuel storage vessel's top soaring, demonstrated Kyiv's continued capability to bring the war to Russia. This strike, occurring on Thursday, challenged the notion that Moscow could shield its citizens from the conflict, despite earlier appraisals of Ukraine's prospects.

The Coming Quantum National Security Crisis: China and Russia Are Harvesting Encrypted Secrets—and Getting Closer to Cracking Them

Foreign Affairs | Anne Neuberger

China and Russia are actively harvesting encrypted U.S. data, anticipating future quantum computing capabilities to decrypt it, posing a significant national security threat. Quantum computers could theoretically crack a 2048-bit RSA key in under eight hours, a task classical supercomputers would take 300 trillion years. Beyond cryptography, quantum sensors could detect stealth vehicles and enable navigation in GPS-denied environments, countering China's BeiDou-3 system.

Apache going down near Oman a sign of air combat evolution, analysts warn

Military Times  |  Eve Sampson

An Apache attack helicopter went down off the coast of Oman this month after being engaged by a Shahed drone, though its two crew members were rescued hours later by an unmanned surface vessel. This incident signals a significant evolution in air combat, challenging the historical dominance of attack helicopters against increasingly capable, smaller, and cheaper unmanned systems.

Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace: Tehran Is Poised to Overplay Its Hand

Foreign Affairs | Nate Swanson

Iran emerged from a 40-day war with the United States and Israel intact and emboldened, gaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, which U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio termed Iran's "economic nuclear weapon." U.S. President Donald Trump lost the conflict and subsequent negotiations. However, Iran risks losing the peace by overplaying its hand, specifically by intending to impose new restrictions and fees on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz after a 60-day negotiation period, as stated by Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

When a Cease-Fire Is Really a Stalemate: Equilibrium With Iran Is the Best America Can Do

Foreign Affairs | Hussein Banai

On June 17, Iran and the United States signed a deal formalizing a stalemate after 107 days of hostilities, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the American naval blockade. Washington waived sanctions on Iranian oil, began releasing frozen funds, and committed to a $300 billion reconstruction package, while deferring issues like Iran's nuclear and missile programs and proxy networks.

25 June 2026

Dollars, Dictatorship, and a Wasted Boom: The Musharraf Era and Pakistan’s Ruling Class

Brief.pk

Pakistan experienced a significant surge of foreign capital between 2001 and 2008 under General Pervez Musharraf's military rule, fueled by post-9/11 strategic rents, debt relief, record remittances, foreign direct investment, and privatization. This period saw accelerated real GDP growth, increased foreign exchange reserves, and a booming stock market, with per capita income roughly doubling.

The Children of Pakistan With Trapped Childhoods

Brief

Pakistan is currently grappling with a significant and intensifying child labor crisis, a situation that is becoming increasingly severe. This critical issue is substantiated by recent comprehensive estimates compiled from multiple authoritative sources. These include the International Labour Organization (ILO), a specialized agency of the United Nations, as well as UNICEF, the United Nations Children's Fund, which focuses on children's rights and development.

Why dropping ‘Indo-Pacific’ clarifies the Pentagon’s China strategy

Asia Times  |  Ken Moriyasu

The US Department of Defense officially reverted the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) to its previous name, the US Pacific Command (PACOM), on June 16, reversing a Trump administration decision. This change signals a decreasing significance of India in Washington’s strategic thinking and clarifies the primary theater for competition with China.

China’s Involution-Innovation Paradox

Eye on China  |  Amit Kumar

China's economy is grappling with an "involution-innovation paradox," marked by an acute imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, contributing to deflation. The National Bureau of Statistics reported 5% GDP growth in Q1 2026, meeting the 4.5–5% annual target, yet real growth has outpaced nominal growth for twelve consecutive quarters, signaling a persistent deflationary cycle.

When the Davidson Window Meets the ‘Xi Window’

The Diplomat  |  Jing Yuan-Chou

Admiral Philip S. Davidson warned in March 2021 that China was accelerating its ambition to supplant the United States, potentially seizing Taiwan by 2027. This "Davidson window" refers to Beijing's military capability to invade Taiwan, aligning with the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) modernization goal for its 2027 centennial.

America's Suez Moment? The Middle East Conflict and the Limits of U.S. Primacy

E-International Relations  |  Nader Rahimi

The current confrontation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is best understood through the 1956 Suez Crisis analogy, rather than Vietnam, to reveal evolving power distribution within the international system. Suez demonstrated how geopolitical crises expose constraints on dominant states, shifting focus from military outcomes to geopolitical leverage and economic influence.

Iran as China’s “Counter-Pivot”: The Strategic Implications of Operation Epic Fury for America’s Competition with China

America First Policy

Operation Epic Fury, the American prong of the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, has significantly disrupted China's strategic architecture in the Middle East, degrading Iran's proxy network and exposing Beijing's inability to protect its strategic partners. This operation challenges China's two-decade use of Iran as a "counter-pivot" to keep the United States strategically mired in the region.

What Changed After Almost Four Months of War? Analysts Say Not Much.

The New York Times  |  Neil MacFarquhar

President Trump ignited a war against Iran on February 28, billing the U.S. campaign as an unprecedented step to transform the Middle East and terminate the threat from a “wicked, radical dictatorship.” Roughly 100 days later, as the United States and Iran reached a somewhat vague memorandum of understanding to end the war, skeptics express bafflement over what exactly has transformed.

Sustaining the Tehran Loop: Geopolitics from Hormuz to Silicon

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

Lloyd's of London launched a formidable $400 million marine war-risk facility, led by Chubb, to underwrite vessels and cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This unprecedented move signals the kinetic phase of the conflict is ending and an "elitist compromise" has been reached to ensure uninterrupted energy flow and avoid global economic destruction.

Analysis-US-Iran deal redraws the Middle East: Iran gains, rivals alarmed

Yahoo News  |  Samia Nakhoul

The U.S.-Iran agreement, signed by Presidents Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian at Versailles, has ended a three-month war and is hailed by backers as the "deal of the century." This interim 14-point accord extends a ceasefire by 60 days, including in Lebanon, to facilitate negotiations on a permanent settlement and Iran's nuclear program.