Epic Interruptus: The Iranian Snare And American Defeat

Eurasia Review  |  Binoy Kampmark

Robert Kagan, a prominent neoconservative, recently lamented a unique American defeat in its efforts to subjugate Iran, asserting that the conflict has diminished US global standing while strengthening China and Russia. This assessment follows US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's declaration of Operation Epic Fury's conclusion, a claim contradicted by President Trump's continued threats and the "paused" Project Freedom. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman notably refused US access to Prince Sultan Airbase, fearing Iranian retaliation. Iranian airstrikes, initially downplayed, inflicted substantial damage on 228 structures and equipment at US military sites across the Middle East, including THAAD radars and aircraft, as verified by satellite imagery. Defensive efforts proved costly, depleting US THAAD and Patriot interceptor inventories, while Iran retains significant pre-war missile capabilities. The subsequent "Economic Fury" policy, intended to cripple Iran's funding, faces skepticism from intelligence analysts who project Iran's ability to withstand a naval blockade for 90-120 days. The US, ensnared, may need to seek China's mediation, likely at a significant cost.

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Iraq’s New Prime Minister Faces Immediate Test Balancing Iran And The U.S.

Eurasia Review  |  James Durso

Iraq's newly nominated Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, faces immediate and complex challenges in balancing the country's relations with Iran and the United States. Key issues include managing Iran-linked militias, which Washington seeks to curb by expanding sanctions and preventing their formal integration into Iraq's armed forces. Economically, Iraq's heavy dependence on Iranian natural gas imports, coupled with U.S. sanctions pressure, necessitates a strategic shift towards energy independence, a goal Washington supports to weaken Iran's economy. Furthermore, Zaidi must navigate U.S. investment interests, particularly in oil production and the ambitious Development Road project, while addressing long-standing U.S. strategic cooperation and military ties. The presence of U.S. troops and concerns over Iraqi sovereignty, especially after recent regional conflicts and perceived U.S. interference, will test Zaidi's ability to consolidate authority and form an inclusive government that satisfies diverse internal blocs and external demands without compromising national autonomy.

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Challenge for the Gulf states: rearming after the war

International Institute for Strategic Studies  |  Albert Vidal Ribe

Arab Gulf states are urgently seeking to replenish and enhance their air and missile defenses following extensive Iranian missile and uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks in 2026, which depleted existing stocks and exposed significant capability gaps. These nations have accelerated their search for new systems, approaching suppliers like the United States, United Kingdom, South Korea, and Ukraine. The US has approved over $41 billion in emergency arms sales, while the UK has convened defense companies and established a task force to expedite exports. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also signed defense agreements with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, exploring co-production partnerships. However, rearmament faces substantial challenges including long lead times, supply-chain bottlenecks, workforce constraints, material availability (exacerbated by China's raw material restrictions), and economic strain. Furthermore, major suppliers like the US, Israel, and European nations are prioritizing their own inventory replenishment and commitments to Ukraine and Taiwan. Consequently, Gulf states are also exploring low-cost solutions like interceptor drones, lasers, and gun systems to counter Iran's less sophisticated threats, while their indigenous defense industrial capabilities remain limited.

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Why the US and Iran Are Losing Confidence in Pakistan

National Interest  |  Natiq Malikzada

Pakistan's role as the primary mediator between the United States and Iran is faltering, as both Washington and Tehran increasingly distrust Islamabad's neutrality. Despite initial suitability due to its Muslim-majority status, ties with both nations, and regional connections, Pakistan's mediation efforts are perceived as biased. Iran views Pakistan as pushing American demands, citing concerns from officials like Ebrahim Rezaei and Pakistan's military cooperation with Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, the United States is frustrated by Pakistan's 'double-dealing,' particularly its decision to open overland trade corridors for Iranian goods, which undermines U.S. sanctions and blockade efforts. This perceived duplicity has led to a loss of confidence from both sides, suggesting a return to alternative mediators like Oman, which has a history of quiet diplomacy and a direct interest in regional stability, as a more trusted channel for negotiations.

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Russia marks German-Ukrainian drone factories as ‘potential targets”

Brussels Signal  |  John Rosenthal

Russia has designated German-Ukrainian drone manufacturing facilities as "potential targets" following a strategic partnership announcement between Germany and Ukraine for extensive military cooperation, particularly in robotic systems production. German firms like Quantum Systems and Auterion have established joint ventures with Ukrainian partners, such as Quantum Frontline Industries, WIY Drones, Tencore, and Airlogix, to produce a range of drones including Linza, Strila, Termit, X-wing, and delta-wing models in Germany. These systems, some with reported ranges of 1000 to 1500 kilometers, are intended for "deep strike capabilities" into Russian territory, a policy explicitly supported by the German Ministry of Defence. The Russian Ministry of Defence subsequently published names and addresses of European companies involved, with former President Dmitri Medvedev explicitly labeling them as potential targets. This development significantly escalates the geopolitical stakes, directly implicating European industrial infrastructure in the conflict and increasing the risk of Russian retaliatory actions beyond Ukrainian borders.

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Jamestown Foundation

China Brief, May 3, 2026, v. 26, no. 9

Great Power Conflict Concerns Spurs Stockpiling
State-Driven Nuclear Expansion is Winning Energy Race
Beijing Argues Japan’s Rearmament is Illegal
‘Fingertip Formalism’ Undermines Digital Governance
New Free Trade Zone Solidifies Eurasian Ties
Takaichi and Japan Resist Chinese Pressure

Terrorism Monitor, May 1, 2026, v. 24, no. 8

Privatization of War in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo
TTP and the Escalating Islamabad-Kabul Security Crisis
Lakurawa’s Hybrid Jihadist–Criminal Governance in Northwestern Nigeria
HAYI: Iranian Proxy Targeting Jewish and Israeli Sites in Europe

Terrorism Monitor, April 17, 2026, v. 24, no. 7

‘Unconditional Escalation’ Marks Iran’s Shifting Deterrence Strategy
Outlook for Minority Rebel and Separatist Militants in Iran
Houthis and Al-Qaeda Growing Terror Supply Chain
Potential for Kurdish Militants to Capture Territory in Iran
Nigerian Leaders Resist Iranian Revolutionary

Russia launches mass drone attack on Ukraine

Defence Blog  |  Dylan Malyasov

On May 13, 2026, Russia launched one of the largest drone attacks of the war against Ukraine, deploying hundreds of Shahed-type drones in multiple waves across 14 regions, targeting critical railway infrastructure, residential areas, port facilities, and energy installations. Ukrainian monitoring services recorded 168 drone tracks in a single morning, with President Zelenskyy confirming 111 drones were neutralized overnight through interception and electronic jamming, though 20 successfully hit targets in Dnipro, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Poltava. This saturation attack, utilizing cost-effective Geran variants, places immense pressure on Ukraine's air defense systems, interceptor stocks, and crew endurance, forcing the commitment of multiple interceptors per target. The geographic targeting pattern suggests a deliberate effort to disrupt Ukraine’s logistics backbone. Zelenskyy highlighted the strategic timing of the assault amidst diplomatic discussions, signaling Russian intentions and underscoring Ukraine's urgent need for sustained defensive capacity from its partners.

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Another Crack in the Tariff Wall

CSIS  |  William Alan Reinsch

The U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) recently delivered a significant blow to the Trump administration's tariff policy by invalidating 10 percent tariffs imposed in February, following a prior Supreme Court ruling against tariffs under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). This decision, while narrowly applied to the state of Washington and two private sector plaintiffs, Burlap and Barrel, Inc., and Basic Fun, Inc., underscores a broader challenge to the executive branch's authority in imposing trade restrictions. The ruling highlights the critical role of judicial oversight in U.S. trade policy, particularly concerning the legal standing required for plaintiffs to demonstrate harm from government actions. Strategically, this development could constrain future administrations' ability to unilaterally implement tariffs, potentially shifting the balance of power in trade policy formulation towards Congress or requiring more robust legal justifications for such measures. The implications extend to global trade relations, signaling potential instability in U.S. trade enforcement mechanisms and inviting scrutiny from international partners and competitors.

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How Lebanon Could Finally Leave Iran’s Orbit for Good

National Interest  |  Khalid Al-Jaber

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's April decision to pursue direct political negotiations with Israel signifies a profound strategic shift, aiming to redefine Lebanon as a sovereign state independent of Iranian influence. This move, backed by the second Trump administration's policy of decoupling the Lebanon file from broader Iran negotiations, directly challenges Tehran's long-standing control via Hezbollah. While Hezbollah maintains significant military capabilities and political sway, its obstructionist tactics validate the US separation strategy. Lebanon, negotiating under an Israeli-imposed ceasefire, leverages tactical weakness into strategic advantage by appealing for international and Arab intervention. Israel also requires a stable Lebanese negotiating partner to prevent a power vacuum. The critical challenge remains disarming Hezbollah, a "red line" potentially eroding due to Iran's economic strain, a hostile Arab consensus, and Lebanese public exhaustion. International and Arab support is conditioned on the state's monopoly over arms. However, the process faces risks from internal Hezbollah-ignited strife, Israeli political maximalism, or a US-Iranian deal compromising Lebanon's independence.

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Another Crucial Maritime Chokepoint Is Under Threat

National Interest  |  Michael DeAngelo

Somali pirates have launched a significant hijacking campaign against oil tankers and cargo ships in the Red Sea corridor since April, posing the biggest threat in over a decade and disrupting global trade. This resurgence, occurring while the United States focuses on the Strait of Hormuz, risks inflicting billions in economic damages through increased insurance premiums and rerouted maritime traffic. Critically, the renewed piracy could enable al-Qaeda's Somali affiliate, al-Shabaab, to bolster its revenue streams, strengthen ties with the Houthis, and potentially conduct more attacks on US assets in East Africa or even plan attacks in the United States. The international community, currently fractured and preoccupied, must act decisively. The United States should bolster local Somali forces, particularly the Puntland Maritime Police Force, and encourage NATO allies and other international partners to conduct naval patrols in the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean to contain this solvable problem before its costs escalate further.

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When AI is Wrong, Will Our Leaders Know?

Modern War Institute | Michael Hay

The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into military operations presents significant vulnerabilities, echoing historical challenges with new technologies like tanks and M16 rifles. While AI offers unparalleled efficiency in processing battlefield data, it risks fostering human over-reliance through psychological heuristics such as "passing the buck," "accept-and-forget thinking," and "mental dependency." Commanders may unconsciously shift accountability to AI, accept its outputs without critical review, and experience an erosion of their critical thinking skills, potentially leading to decision paralysis or commission errors. The article emphasizes that effective AI leverage demands a deliberate application of Army Doctrine Publication 6-22, _Army Leadership and the Profession_, focusing on intellect, leadership, and achievement. Leaders must cultivate critical questioning, foster communication, and prepare units to operate when AI systems fail or are compromised, ensuring adaptability and accountability. The Army must stress-test human-AI interactions in realistic combat training environments to fully understand and mitigate these risks.

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Realizing the Promise of the Drone Revolution

RAND Corporation  |  Jan Osburg, Emily Lathrop, James Ryseff, Matthew Fay, Will Shumate, M. Scott Bond

Technological advancements in unmanned vehicles are enabling a new style of warfare, characterized by large quantities of attritable, adaptable unmanned systems, each significantly cheaper than current defense platforms yet capable of mission accomplishment. These developments offer the U.S. military a strategic advantage to deter or defeat major-power adversaries possessing quantitatively superior forces. However, the U.S. Department of War (DOW) confronts multiple obstacles in operationalizing this vision. To fully leverage the drone revolution, DOW must implement coordinated changes across doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy. Furthermore, a fundamental shift in DOW's organizational culture towards greater agility and innovation is essential to realize the full promise of these emerging capabilities and maintain a competitive edge in future conflicts.

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An A2/AD Strategy for the Cognitive Domain

U.S. Naval Institute  |  Jo-Wen Huang, Yin-Hsin Chien

Taiwanese naval commanders propose an "All-Domain Denial" (ADD) strategy to counter China's evolving "unrestricted warfare" tactics, moving beyond traditional Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) concepts. While A2/AD focuses on denying physical access, ADD aims to paralyze an adversary's decision-making and situational awareness by integrating physical, virtual, military, and civilian capabilities. China's use of long-range strike systems, air-sea blockades, electronic warfare, and low-intensity incursions in the first island chain necessitates this shift. The ADD framework encompasses information, cyber/electromagnetic, cognitive, psychological, and legal-political denial, emphasizing societal resilience and narrative control. Recommendations for implementation include establishing information operations command centers, conducting social-cognitive simulations, developing strategic narratives, fostering psychological resilience through national education, and coordinating cognitive defense with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific.

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How Ukraine Is Taking the Fight Back to Russia in Crimea

National Interest  |  David Kirichenko

Ukraine's intensified campaign in Crimea is strategically degrading Russia's military infrastructure and forcing Moscow to reallocate critical air defense resources, creating significant leverage for Kyiv. Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine has systematically targeted Russian assets, including the Kerch Bridge, naval vessels, and air defense systems like S-300 and Buk, significantly damaging approximately 30 percent of Russia's Black Sea Fleet by early 2026. Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) and specialized drone units are employing mid-range strikes and rapidly adaptable drone technology to open gaps in Russian defenses, making the peninsula increasingly untenable as a secure rear base. This sustained pressure extends to Russian logistics routes and even distant regions like Leningrad Oblast, demonstrating Ukraine's ability to project power deep into Russian territory. The strategy aims not for immediate collapse but for a steady erosion of Russian defensive architecture, compelling the Kremlin to choose between defending Crimea or its homeland, thereby strengthening Ukraine's position in future peace negotiations.

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The ‘US blockade’ of Iran: How It Might Function (Or Not!)

Royal United Services Institute  |  Commodore (Ret’d) Steve Prest

President Donald Trump's April 12 declaration of a US blockade on Iranian ports, targeting all maritime traffic, signals a significant strategic shift towards economic leverage against Iran. This action, following collapsed diplomatic talks, aims to destabilize Iran's petrostate economy without a full-scale military assault. Iran, having dispersed its military capabilities and used drones and ballistic missiles regionally, has itself leveraged its control over the Strait of Hormuz to restrict hydrocarbon and commodity flows, causing global inflationary pressures. The blockade's legality is contentious under international law, particularly regarding the formal declaration of war and the self-defense justification, prompting concerns from nations like China about the rules-based international order. Operationally, the US Fifth Fleet faces challenges in deterring blockade runners, tracking disguised shipping, and managing interdictions, especially if major economic powers escort their vessels. While strategically sound for destabilizing the Iranian regime at lower US cost, the blockade carries substantial escalation risks with global economies.

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Carriers: Not Dead Yet, and Unquestionably not Unloved

CDR Salamander

The U.S. Navy's aircraft carriers remain indispensable for projecting national will and dominating contested environments, despite persistent arguments questioning their obsolescence. The 30-year shipbuilding plan, while allocating significant funding—over $22 billion through FY 2031 for *Gerald R. Ford*-class carriers and industrial base upgrades—reveals a slow induction rate for new carriers. This slow pace is projected to create critical gaps, potentially reducing the operational fleet to 10 carriers in 2030, 2033, 2037, and 2038, falling below the congressionally mandated minimum of 11. Although CVN-82 procurement is being accelerated, the article underscores the strategic challenge of maintaining carrier availability and the necessity for sustained bipartisan political support to counter future efforts to defund or diminish the carrier fleet. Carriers are presented as the only viable means to project decisive effects globally, outpacing adversary anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) envelopes without requiring extensive access, basing, and overflight permissions, making their continued investment a critical national security imperative.

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The Autonomous Vehicle Crossroads

Special Competitive Studies Project

The United States is currently losing the global race in autonomous vehicles (AVs) to China, despite maintaining a lead in innovation. This strategic disadvantage stems from a critical adoption gap, where U.S. technical superiority is undermined by insufficient industrial capacity and fragmented regulatory support. China dominates the hardware layer, controlling over 90% of global LiDAR production and achieving significantly lower AV production costs ($40,000 vs. $130,000-$200,000 for U.S. robotaxis). China's integrated national strategy, coordinated regulatory frameworks, and state support enable large-scale testing and deployment, while the U.S. struggles with inconsistent state policies and lower public trust. Analysis using the SCSP Tech Scorecard indicates China leads in deployment, adoption, industrial capacity, talent pipeline, and national leverage, with the U.S. only retaining an edge in innovation leadership. Bridging this adoption gap is crucial for U.S. economic resilience and national security.

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India’s Multialignment and Democratization of the International Order

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Sarang Shidore

India's multialignment strategy, driven by self-interest rather than pure ideology, actively shapes its position within the international order, creating both synergy and friction with the United States. Originating from its post-colonial identity and desire for a more representative global system, this approach evolved from historical nonalignment into a pragmatic pursuit of strong bilateral ties with multiple major powers. India has consistently pushed for increased representation in global governance structures like the United Nations and international financial institutions. This strategy guides India's significant relationships with the US, France, Russia, and Israel, reflecting a nuanced foreign policy that balances shared interests with independent action. Even as tactical shifts occur, multialignment is expected to remain India’s core strategy, compelling partners like Washington to find cooperative approaches despite occasional disagreements.

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India and Security Norms in the Liberal International Order

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Kate Sullivan de Estrada

India is strategically navigating the liberal international order (LIO), selectively engaging with security norms while steadfastly preserving its autonomy. The nation deepens security cooperation with the United States and Indo-Pacific partners like Japan and Australia within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, yet consistently avoids formal, treaty-based alliances that would entail binding defense commitments. India champions nuclear restraint and responsible stewardship but remains outside the nonproliferation regime's core framework, aligning its domestic legislation with international standards without full integration. This approach allows New Delhi to enhance its material capacity and regional legitimacy, contributing to global security discussions while resisting hierarchical structures or explicit identification of adversaries. Its engagement also balances long-standing ties with Russia against evolving partnerships, reflecting a nuanced foreign policy rooted in its historical experiences, such as the 1971 USS Enterprise incident, which fueled distrust of overt alignment. This selective participation ensures independent decision-making in crisis management and security community integration.

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The Islamabad Process: A User’s Guide

FrameTheGlobeNews |  TheGlobalChief

Pakistan, despite profound domestic challenges including widespread poverty, child stunting, and a massive out-of-school population, has strategically positioned itself as a crucial mediator in the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. Dubbed "The Islamabad Process," this diplomatic effort saw Pakistan facilitate a ceasefire announcement and host high-level delegations, including US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, for intense negotiations. While Pakistani media celebrated these diplomatic achievements, even suggesting Nobel Peace Prize nominations, the article highlights a stark contrast with the country's internal realities, where the economic burden of the conflict, such as soaring fuel prices, exacerbates existing social crises. The process, involving carrying multiple proposals and brokering ceasefire extensions, has not yielded tangible relief for Pakistan in terms of sanctions or IMF program benefits. Furthermore, Pakistan has faced accusations from US Senator Lindsey Graham regarding Iranian aircraft at a Pakistani airbase and from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu concerning social media bot farms, underscoring the complex and scrutinized nature of its mediating role. The global attention on Pakistan's diplomatic prowess starkly overshadows its profound domestic struggles.

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Bangladesh’s New Government Gets Down to Business

Crisis Group

Bangladesh's political landscape underwent significant transformation following a recent uprising, culminating in the establishment of a new elected government. The article details the period after the upheaval, including the interim government's reforms and their mixed outcomes, setting the stage for the subsequent electoral process. It then focuses on the return to an elected system, highlighting a "festival of voting" that led to a clear Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) majority and the subsequent peaceful transfer of power, alongside the international community's varied reactions. The core of the analysis addresses the formidable challenges confronting the new administration. These include fostering sustainable economic growth, implementing crucial political reforms to strengthen democratic institutions, ensuring public safety and justice, and advancing rights and reconciliation efforts to heal societal divisions. Furthermore, the government must navigate complex social change, address gender politics, and define a coherent foreign policy direction. This comprehensive overview underscores the multifaceted agenda facing Bangladesh's leadership as it strives for stability and progress in a post-uprising environment.

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Sri Lanka’s Bumpy Road to a Political Reset

Crisis Group

Sri Lanka's political landscape is undergoing a significant reset following the "political earthquake of 2024," marked by crucial elections and the emergence of the National People’s Power. The nation grapples with complex economic challenges, necessitating adherence to International Monetary Fund (IMF) guardrails while navigating inherent political and economic risks. A central theme is the imperative to challenge impunity, reform the legal system, and address deep-seated corruption. This includes pursuing accountability for the Easter bombings and war-related atrocities, alongside broader legislative reforms. The prospect of a new constitution is also on the agenda, aiming to redefine governance. However, the path to reform faces substantial obstacles, including high public expectations, slow progress, and the double-edged sword of moralism. A viable way forward involves robust efforts to fight impunity, assert control over the security apparatus, strengthen oversight commissions, ensure economic equity, and foster international cooperation to stabilize the country.

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The Silk Road and South Asia: China’s Bridge from Regional to Global Politics - Institute for Security and Development Policy

Institute for Security and Development Policy  |  John S. Van Oudenaren

China's foreign policy under Xi Jinping has undergone a significant, albeit gradual, transformation from a regionally concentrated approach in East Asia to an assertive global strategy, directly challenging established U.S. leadership. South Asia has emerged as a central theater in this strategic pivot, largely due to its integral role within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which effectively extends Beijing's geopolitical and economic influence far beyond its immediate neighborhood. Several critical factors underscore the region's importance: South Asia's strategic geography is indispensable for China's broader connectivity and security objectives. Moreover, the complex power dynamics within the region, characterized by India's traditional dominance alongside the rising ambitions of states like Pakistan and Bangladesh, present Beijing with strategic opportunities to exploit existing tensions and expand its footprint. The notable absence of cohesive regional institutions, unlike the robust ASEAN framework, further enables China to cultivate influence through a network of overlapping, Sino-centric multilateral arrangements. This expanding engagement is normatively underpinned by a shared narrative of a rising Global South, providing a legitimate basis for deeper cooperation between China and various South Asian nations.

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China’s Nuclear Energy Priorities Under Its 15th Five-Year Plan

CSIS  |  Jane Nakano and Yu-Hsuan Yeh

China's adoption of its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) in March marks a significant strategic milestone for its national development, especially regarding nuclear energy. This comprehensive plan, traditionally outlining key economic and social development goals, will undoubtedly detail Beijing's priorities for expanding its nuclear power capacity, enhancing reactor technology, and securing its long-term energy future. Given China's ambitious climate targets and rapidly growing energy demands, the 15FYP is anticipated to emphasize accelerated nuclear plant construction, potentially incorporating advanced reactor designs such as small modular reactors (SMRs) and fast breeder reactors. These strategic investments are crucial for bolstering energy independence, reducing reliance on fossil fuels, and positioning China as a formidable global leader in nuclear technology and exports. The specific policy directives, regulatory frameworks, and financial allocations outlined within this plan will profoundly influence global energy markets, international non-proliferation efforts, and technological competition. However, the provided article text is regrettably incomplete, precluding a detailed analysis of these specific priorities and their broader strategic implications for both domestic and international stakeholders. The plan was adopted following the annual session, as reported by Xinhua News Agency.

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China and the war in Iran: pragmatism and national resilience

IISS |  Erik Green, Olivia Parker, Wira Ejau, Morgan Michaels, Meia Nouwens

China's strategic response to the US-Israel war against Iran has been a pragmatic balancing act, driven by economic interests and the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) ambitions in the Middle East and the Global South. While China's economy has shown resilience against initial supply-chain disruptions, benefiting from diverted US assets and promoting an alternative world order, internal discussions reveal concerns regarding long-term supply chain vulnerabilities and its image as a neutral Global South leader. Beijing has maintained a hedging approach, prioritizing its five principles of peaceful co-existence and enhancing national self-reliance rather than assuming a prominent mediating role. Economic vulnerabilities, particularly concerning critical chemical imports from Iran, have prompted measures like banning sulphuric acid exports. Looking ahead, China aims to strengthen economic resilience and diversify energy dependencies by leveraging relationships with Russia and other oil-producing states through multilateral platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This approach underscores a continued focus on domestic and national interests, suggesting pragmatism will likely supersede decisive mediation in future conflicts, especially those outside its immediate neighborhood.

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Exploring Instability Risks in the U.S.-China AI Rivalry: Breakwater Game Overview and Initial Observations | RAND

RAND Corporation  |  Abby Doll, Karl P. Mueller

The intensifying strategic rivalry between the United States and China in artificial intelligence (AI) development raises significant instability risks, including the potential for either nation to employ military force or cyber warfare to disrupt the other's AI ecosystem. This technological competition, particularly concerning the race to artificial general intelligence (AGI), could prompt preventive actions aimed at securing a lead or preventing a rival from achieving AGI first. RAND's research team has developed and initiated a game called Breakwater to analyze these dynamics. Breakwater explores the conditions under which competitors might resort to such preventive measures, how perceptions of AI development trajectories influence strategic behavior and risk tolerance, and the factors that contribute to the stabilization or destabilization of the competition. Anticipating and managing these potential escalatory pathways is critical for national security and technology policymakers to avert armed conflict and catastrophic outcomes. This paper provides an overview of the game design and initial observations.

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China Looks To Ease Iran Into Resolution of War With U.S.

Foundation for Defense of Democracies  |  Jack Burnham

China is actively seeking to de-escalate the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, aiming to create an off-ramp for Tehran without forcing its capitulation. On May 6, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing to discuss the conflict and strengthen bilateral ties, as Iran continues to threaten international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz amidst an American blockade. Beijing's diplomatic strategy focuses on reopening the Strait, which is crucial for global energy markets and China's economy, while carefully avoiding direct blame on Tehran or commenting on its nuclear weapons program beyond acknowledging Iran's right to peaceful enrichment. China has also provided significant material support to Iran, including receiving over 90 percent of its crude exports, supplying dual-use chemical precursors for ballistic missiles, and reportedly providing commercial satellite imagery for targeting U.S. military installations. Furthermore, China remains a key supplier of components for Iran's drone sector, enabling Tehran's continued military operations. This dual approach of diplomatic engagement and covert support highlights China's strategic balancing act to protect its interests and maintain influence in the region.

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The Trump–Xi summit: can progress be made on Iran?

Chatham House | Bronwen Maddox

A prospective summit between former US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would likely feature discussions on the complex issue of Iran, particularly concerning its nuclear program and regional activities. The central question revolves around the potential for meaningful progress, given the divergent interests and approaches of Washington and Beijing towards Tehran. US policy under a potential Trump administration might seek China's leverage to pressure Iran, possibly in exchange for concessions on other bilateral issues. China, while a signatory to the JCPOA, has maintained economic ties with Iran and often advocates for diplomatic solutions, potentially positioning itself as a mediator or a counterweight to US unilateralism. Any joint US-China initiative on Iran would represent a significant shift in global diplomacy, impacting Middle Eastern stability and the broader non-proliferation regime. However, the historical complexities of US-China relations and their respective strategic priorities suggest that achieving substantial breakthroughs on Iran would be highly challenging, requiring intricate negotiations and a willingness to compromise from both sides. This hypothetical summit underscores the critical role of great power diplomacy in addressing persistent international security challenges.

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Is the United States Prepared for a War with China?

Center for Strategic and International Studies |  Seth G. Jones

The United States military faces significant challenges in sustaining a protracted conflict with China, primarily due to critical shortages in long-range munitions, advanced air defense systems, interceptors, and unmanned air, undersea, and surface platforms. Deterring or engaging in a two-front war across the Indo-Pacific and Europe would exacerbate these deficiencies, highlighting a strategic vulnerability. Production timelines for essential munitions like SM-6, SM-3 IB, JASSM, and Tomahawk extend to three to four years, meaning recent Pentagon efforts to increase production, while helpful, cannot provide immediate solutions. This situation necessitates a rapid and sustained investment in the defense industrial base and strategic stockpiling to enhance U.S. warfighting capacity and deterrence posture against a peer competitor like China.

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Reshaping the international legal order: China’s strategic use of lawfare and lessons learned for Europe

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies  |  Benedetta Girardi, Anna Hoefnagels and Berend Kwak

China is actively reshaping the international legal order, not by outright rejection, but through a strategic application of “lawfare.” A new HCSS report details how Beijing reinterprets existing norms, establishes parallel institutions, and gradually expands its influence across global governance. The report introduces a five-stage framework illustrating how rising powers translate legal strategy into systemic change, from delegitimizing norms to building support for alternative legal arrangements. China's approach is notably advanced in trade governance, where Belt and Road-linked dispute resolution mechanisms offer credible alternatives to Western fora, and is strategically disruptive in maritime security and technology governance. This creates structural asymmetries for Europe, as China treats law as an instrument of competition, exploiting EU fragmentation and eroding normative influence. To counter this, Europe must adopt a more strategic approach, strengthening legal diplomacy, investing in competitive dispute resolution, coordinating responses to extraterritorial legislation, prioritizing international standard-setting, and embedding legal cooperation in external partnerships.

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The AI Escalation Danger Trump and Xi Must Address

Center for Strategic and International Studies |  Benjamin Jensen, Yasir Atalan 

The upcoming May 14–15 summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing presents a critical opportunity to address the escalating dangers posed by artificial intelligence in U.S.-China relations. While AI could foster mutual cooperation, a significant underlying problem is the observed escalatory tendencies in China’s foundation models, such as DeepSeek. These biases raise concerns about the potential for unintended escalation in future conflicts, particularly given the rapid advancements in AI-driven military applications. Strategic dialogue is imperative to establish guardrails and prevent AI from becoming a destabilizing force in an already complex geopolitical landscape. Both leaders must prioritize discussions on developing mechanisms to mitigate these risks, ensuring that AI development and deployment do not inadvertently trigger or exacerbate international crises. Failure to address these inherent escalatory biases could lead to a dangerous arms race and increased global instability.

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US Technology Companies Should Keep Operating in China

ITIF

The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) challenges the prevailing Washington sentiment advocating for U.S. companies to decouple from China, particularly those serving the local Chinese market. While acknowledging concerns like forced labor and technology transfer, ITIF argues that maintaining a presence serves U.S. national interests. Key benefits include increasing revenue and market share that would otherwise go to Chinese firms, fostering global R&D investment, enabling reverse technology spillover back to America, creating dependencies among Chinese users, and providing access to high-quality talent and market insights. Data from 2023 indicates U.S. affiliates generated over $640 billion in revenue, with 70 percent sold within China. The report advises against government pressure on U.S. companies operating for the Chinese market, instead recommending targeted policies for offshoring production not serving China, improving transparency, and retaining Chinese talent in the U.S.

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ITOW: Legal Warfare

Air University

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has formally integrated "legal warfare" (法律战) into its strategic doctrine, as outlined in the newly promulgated "Regulations on the Political Work of the Chinese People's Liberation Army." This development marks a significant innovation in strengthening army building and preparing for military struggles in the new era, positioning legal warfare alongside public opinion warfare (舆论战) and psychological warfare (心理战) as key components of the "three wars" strategy. While public opinion and psychological warfare draw from the PLA's historical traditions, legal warfare is a novel formulation requiring comprehensive understanding of its definition, implications, objectives, and operational methodologies. The article, part of the "In Their Own Words" series by the China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI), translates Chinese source documents to illuminate Beijing's evolving perspectives. It acknowledges that legal contests have historically occurred across military, commercial, and cultural domains, but their explicit designation as "legal warfare" underscores their heightened importance in modern conflict, demanding meticulous application of relevant laws by all levels of military personnel.

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America and Israel against Iran: Strategic results during the ceasefire

Clingendael  |  Hamidreza Azizi and Erwin van Veen

In April 2026, the strategic outcomes of the US and Israeli assault on Iran during an initial ceasefire revealed Iran's unexpected resilience and accurate warfighting assumptions, contrasting sharply with US/Israeli overconfidence in a rapid victory. Tehran successfully imposed significant costs on the United States by targeting Gulf states and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, which impacted global energy prices and US domestic politics, ultimately forcing a ceasefire. The article details how US and Israeli actions, including a failed special forces raid near Esfahan and extensive attacks on civilian infrastructure, failed to achieve Iran's surrender or collapse, instead leading to a more radical and assertive Iranian leadership. Ceasefire negotiations faced immediate challenges due to Israel's large-scale attack on Beirut, which Iran countered by maintaining the Hormuz closure until a broader ceasefire, including Lebanon, was secured. Despite absorbing an estimated USD 270 billion in damages and suffering 1,700 civilian deaths, Iran's strategic position remains strong, compelling the US to agree to the initial ceasefire.

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The Ties That Bind: Energy Connectivity in the Age of Geopolitical Turbulence - International Centre for

International Centre for Defence and Security

Europe's energy system is undergoing a profound transformation, driven by geopolitics, security concerns, and climate objectives. The EU has adopted a dual strategy to strengthen internal connectivity while deliberately reducing exposure to high-risk external dependencies, particularly on Russia, fundamentally reshaping post-2022 energy policy. Despite reframing renewable energy as a foundation for industrial strategy and geopolitical resilience, Europe’s grids remain underdeveloped, threatening EU credibility across climate, competitiveness, and security. The pursuit of energy independence through REPowerEU has advanced unevenly, with the EU remaining a significant buyer of Russian LNG and pipeline gas. Regional dynamics highlight tensions between independence and connectivity, exemplified by the Nordic-Baltic states' success versus Hungary and Slovakia's "malignant connectivity." Undersea infrastructure represents a critical vulnerability, susceptible to disruption due to physical exposure and weak legal protection. The report recommends strengthening regional connectivity, capacity coordination, and infrastructure protection, including closing legal gaps on undersea assets and tightening sanctions against Russia, alongside national-level actions like recognizing Finland as an anchor partner and integrating hybrid threats into energy planning.

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