PRC–Turkmenistan Gas Ties Hedge Hormuz Risk

JAMESTOWN.SUBSTACK | Matthew Johnson

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is strategically intensifying its pursuit of overland energy security through Central Asia, primarily anchored by Turkmenistan, to reduce exposure to maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz amidst escalating Middle East conflicts.

Everything Everywhere All at Once: The Future of U.S. Strategy

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Richard Haass

U.S. foreign policy confronts a complex global environment, requiring simultaneous engagement with great power competition and transnational challenges. The U.S. must address the rise of China and Russia while also tackling climate change, pandemics, nuclear proliferation, and cyber threats, as these issues are interconnected and cannot be prioritized in isolation.

Iran rebuilding military industrial base faster than expected, already producing drones, according to US intel

EDITION | 

Natasha Bertrand

Iran has rapidly restarted drone production during a six-week ceasefire, indicating its military industrial base is reconstituting much faster than US intelligence initially estimated, challenging claims about the long-term degradation from US-Israeli strikes. This swift rebuilding, including missile sites, launchers, and key weapons production capacity, means Iran remains a significant regional threat, particularly if President Donald Trump resumes bombing campaigns.

On Iran, Trump Must Prioritize Hormuz over Nuclear Proliferation

NATIONALINTEREST | Brian G. Chow

The Trump administration should prioritize resolving the immediate Strait of Hormuz maritime crisis over Iran's nuclear program, advocating "sequential decoupling." This strategy involves first securing the strait's reopening to alleviate economic issues, then addressing nuclear disputes.

Saudi Arabia Is Building the Logistics Architecture the Iran War Exposed It Didn’t Have

FRAMETHEGLOBENEWS 

Saudi Arabia is actively developing a new logistics architecture, a strategic response to deficiencies exposed during the "Iran War." This initiative aims to bolster the Kingdom's infrastructure, which was deemed inadequate for wartime demands. Historically, the need for such projects was recognized in 1979, when King Khalid sanctioned the Petroline, the 1,200-kilometre East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, following the Iranian Revolution, which fundamentally reshaped the security of Gulf transit.

Daily Memo: US Support for Europe, Chinese Purchases of American Goods

GEOPOLITICALFUTURES |

The U.S. Pentagon reportedly plans to scale back its troop presence on the European Continent.

AI and the Future of Work: Preliminary Findings

SCSP | Senator Mike Rounds, Senator Mark Warner, Chris Malachowsky, Ylli Bajraktari

The United States stands at a critical juncture regarding artificial intelligence (AI), a general-purpose technology rapidly reshaping the American workforce with unprecedented speed and scope. This preliminary report from the Task Force on AI and the Future of Work assesses AI's profound implications, noting its potential for new discoveries alongside significant challenges to how knowledge, skills, and careers are developed.

Remarks by Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby at the National War College (As Prepared)

WAR.GOV 

The United States military, under Secretary Hegseth's direction, is refocusing on its core function of fighting and winning wars, acknowledging a shift from terrorism to interstate strategic competition as the primary national security concern, as recognized by President Trump's 2018 National Defense Strategy. This new era, characterized by major power rivalry under the nuclear shadow, necessitates a military strategy that defends important, non-existential interests against nuclear-armed adversaries while maintaining costs and risks proportionate to American interests.

What Are U.S. Military Dollars Buying in Egypt?

FOREIGNPOLICY | Seth Binder

United States military aid to Egypt requires immediate and thorough congressional scrutiny to determine the precise returns on these significant financial investments. The core policy question centers on what U.S. military dollars are effectively purchasing in Egypt, highlighting a critical need for transparency and accountability within the bilateral defense relationship.

The US Is Quietly Torpedoing Its Relationship With Pacific Island Partners

THE DIPLOMAT | Daniel Mandell

The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently reported that the Trump administration's failure to properly staff legally required positions for the Freely Associated States (FAS) — the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau — is undermining U.S.

Why has the tide turned against Russia in the Ukraine war?

The Week  |  Rafi Schwartz

Russian forces last month lost more territory to Ukraine than they captured, marking the first such occurrence in nearly two years and signaling a potential turning point in Moscow’s invasion. Russia is also losing soldiers faster than it can recruit and deploy them, indicating a shift in momentum towards Kyiv.

From AI to shotguns and cheap interceptors, Ukraine is trying to drone-proof its skies

BBC  |  Jonathan Beale, Firle Davies, Anastasiia Levchenko, Mariana Matveichuk

Ukraine's air defenses successfully intercepted 94% of 1,500 Russian drones and 73% of 56 missiles launched in a recent 48-hour period, preventing higher casualties despite 24 civilian deaths, including two sisters. This marks an improvement from 55% drone interception on 14 May 2025.

Inside Israel’s High-Tech Campaign to Kill or Capture Every Oct. 7 Attacker

WSJ | Dov Lieber

Israel has initiated a high-tech campaign aimed at identifying, killing, or capturing every militant responsible for the October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel. This systematic effort leverages advanced surveillance capabilities to meticulously track down individuals who documented their actions during the assault, demonstrating Israel's significant intelligence acumen and its profound desire for retribution.

From AI to shotguns and cheap interceptors, Ukraine is trying to drone-proof its skies

BBC | Jonathan Beale, Firle Davies, Anastasiia Levchenko, Mariana Matveichuk

Ukraine has significantly enhanced its air defense capabilities against Russia's sustained aerial assaults, intercepting 94% of long-range drones and 73% of missiles in a recent 48-hour period, a marked improvement from 55% in May 2025. This layered system integrates Western-supplied Patriot missiles with innovative home-grown solutions, including mobile fire teams and cheap, mass-produced interceptor drones.

Ukraine Has a New War Strategy—and It’s Working

FOREIGNPOLICY | Paul Hockenos

The provided document, titled 'Ukraine Has a New War Strategy—and It’s Working', primarily consists of website boilerplate, navigation elements, and technical messages rather than substantive article content. It includes a cookie usage agreement, troubleshooting tips for a browser issue preventing proper loading, and various links for site navigation, newsletters, and account management.

The Adaptation Imperative: Innovation Is the Key to Containing the Worst Effects of Climate Change

FOREIGN AFFAIRS | Alice C. Hill

Governments worldwide are failing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, causing the 2015 Paris agreement's goal of limiting global temperature rise to become increasingly unattainable.

A Powerful El Niño Is Forming. If History Is a Guide, It Could Hit Hard.

NYTIMES 

A powerful El Niño phenomenon is currently forming, prompting researchers to draw historic comparisons to significant past episodes. If historical patterns serve as a guide, this emerging El Niño could hit hard, potentially altering the course of human events.

A Clean Shipping Crunch Is Looming Amid a Conventional Fuel Shortage

OILPRICE 

Norway's offshore shipping emissions targets, which are stricter than FuelEU Maritime, are poised to render much of the current fleet non-compliant by 2029. The escalation of conflict across the Middle East

Diverging AI Governance Structures in the Indo-Pacific

Nbr  |  Ryan Calo, Xinzi Lyu

Governments across the Indo-Pacific have adopted markedly diverging AI governance structures, despite generally seeking similar outcomes such as economic development and public-sector innovation, alongside addressing growing concerns regarding safety, accountability, and societal impact.

Special ops leader says Maduro mission set ‘new standard’

BREAKINGDEFENSE | Andrew White

The U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) commander, Admiral Frank M.

On ATF, don’t miss the plane truth

Times of India  |  Anupam Manur

Indian aviation faces severe structural fragility, with Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) costs now comprising nearly 60% of airline operating expenses, leading to warnings of insurmountable losses and flight cancellations from the Federation of Indian Airlines (FIA). This crisis is exacerbated by government policies including a 100% monopoly of state-owned Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) in ATF supply, an irrational import-parity pricing model for domestically produced ATF, an 11% ad valorem excise duty, and ATF's exclusion from GST, resulting in fragmented state VAT rates up to 29%. These factors cause Indian airlines to pay approximately 65% more for ATF than foreign counterparts. Additionally, Indian carriers engage in minimal financial hedging due to restrictive RBI regulations, increasing vulnerability to price spikes. The government's perception of air travel as a luxury good drives this extractive tax structure. Strategic policy reforms are urgently needed to liberalize OMCs, introduce competition, scrap import-parity pricing, implement flat and low ATF taxes, and integrate ATF into GST to foster a more accessible and competitive aviation sector in India.

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What Happened in India’s West Bengal?

Foreign Policy  |  Sumit Ganguly, Shibashis Chatterjee

India's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved a significant victory in the West Bengal state elections, decisively ousting the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) party after 15 years of rule. Capturing nearly 46 percent of the vote and 207 legislative seats, the BJP breached a key regional bastion, further consolidating its national power, as it already controls 22 other states and union territories. This electoral upset also unseated longtime West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. The article highlights that this stunning victory, particularly in a state proud of its subnational ethos, has been accompanied by allegations of foul play, specifically citing last-minute changes to voter rolls. The strategic implications include the BJP's expanded political footprint and the potential for increased national-level influence over regional governance, alongside concerns about electoral integrity.

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What the Trump-Xi Summit Revealed, and Left Unsaid, About U.S.-China Tech Competition

CSIS

The recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, the first since 2017, publicly addressed trade, Taiwan, and the Iran conflict, but largely omitted critical U.S.-China technology competition dynamics.

Did Trump Just Blunt The Strategic Ambiguity On Taiwan?

Eurasia Review  |  Vivek Mishra

US President Donald Trump's recent trip to China saw Xi Jinping draw a clear red line on Taiwan, threatening conflict if the US mishandled the issue. Trump's lack of a commensurate response, possibly to secure an economic deal, could be dangerously consequential for Taiwan. While the first Trump administration adopted a robust, confrontational posture, increasing arms sales to US$18.3 billion and passing the Taiwan Travel Act, his second term's sweeping tariff policies, applied even to Taiwan, have complicated America's standing. Trump has framed Taiwan as responsible for "stealing the US’s advantage in the semiconductor sector," suggesting it should pay for its defense. This has heightened strategic ambiguity, giving China room to maneuver, especially as its military preparedness grows. Taiwan's global importance as a semiconductor and chip hub makes a potential mainland invasion a global concern. A protracted Iran conflict has diverted Trump's focus, allowing China to engage with Taiwan's Kuomintang, pressuring President Lai Ching-te. The 2025 National Security Strategy still prioritizes defending Taiwan, viewing it as a tech hub and strategic geography for the Second Island Chain, seeking allied cooperation.

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Tracking China’s Fourth Aircraft Carrier

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, Aidan Powers-Riggs, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.

China's fourth aircraft carrier, the Type 004, is under rapid construction at the Dalian Shipyard, with prefabricated hull components assembled since early 2025. CSIS assesses with near certainty it is an aircraft carrier, measuring approximately 286 meters long and 46 meters wide as of May 2026. It is likely nuclear-powered, indicated by two 15-meter by 15-meter compartments resembling shielded reactor containment systems, a critical technical leap for longer operations and greater energy for electromagnetic catapults. The Type 004 is very likely larger than the _Fujian_, with a 46-meter beam versus _Fujian_'s 40 meters, and its full length will likely exceed _Fujian_'s 303 meters, potentially approaching the U.S. _Gerald R. Ford_-class supercarriers (337 meters). It will feature electromagnetic catapults, with plausible evidence suggesting four catapults and a third aircraft elevator, enhancing launch tempo. This carrier marks a significant People’s Liberation Army Navy modernization milestone, aligning with the 2025 U.S. Department of Defense assessment that China aims to field nine carriers by 2035, requiring simultaneous construction and escort vessel production.

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Iran Never Tried to Close The Strait of Hormuz: It Has a Much More Powerful Playbook Ready

National Security Journal  |  Andrew Latham

Iran has not aimed to close the Strait of Hormuz, but rather to create permanent uncertainty through mines, shore-based anti-ship missiles, fast attack craft, and cheap drones, making every transit a calculation. Global oil inventories dropped 250 million barrels across March and April, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 384 million barrels in early May, and the IEA projecting Q2 drawdowns averaging 8.5 million barrels daily. This strategy, which Washington lacks a military answer for, has already led shipping companies to reprice Gulf routes and energy ministries in Tokyo and Seoul to revise procurement assumptions. China, which takes 90% of Iran’s exported crude and routes 45% of its own crude imports through Hormuz, benefits from this unsettled environment, gaining leverage without naval deployments. Beijing's 2021 Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and its role in the 2023 Saudi-Iran normalization underscore its economic influence, which is crucial for Iran's survival. Reversing this de facto Iranian influence requires directly addressing IRGC posture, considering China's economic footprint in sanctions relief, and explicitly stating American red lines. Western governments are quietly adjusting to this new reality, which does not require formal acceptance.

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Iran’s Crisis Awakens The Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Corridor Amid Eurasian Transit Risks

Eurasia Review  |  He Yan

Following the U.S. military's naval blockade on Iran in April 2026, China-Iran railway trade surged, with freight trains from Xi’an to Tehran increasing to one every 3-4 days and monthly cargo volume soaring to 400,000–500,000 tons, including Iranian crude oil. This exposed the critical vulnerability of China's trans-Eurasian transport system, constrained by limited rail capacity, drastically escalated shipping costs (up 40%, $7,000/40-foot container), and unidirectional trade flows. Existing northern (Russia) and southern (Iran, Turkey) corridors face geopolitical risks, while maritime routes are vulnerable to chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. The Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan (TUT) corridor emerges as a strategic third path, bypassing Russia and southern Iran. It offers geopolitical stability, shorter transit distances, and interfaces with routes like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, enhancing China's leverage in the Middle East and providing Central Asian countries with external connectivity independent of Russia. Challenges include coordinating diverse transit countries, requiring institutional innovation.

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Same but different: how Xi and China welcomed Trump and Putin

The Guardian | Pjotr Sauer, Amy Hawkins

China orchestrated deliberately mirrored welcomes for Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, yet subtly signaled Moscow as a more trusted partner in an emerging non-western world order. While Trump was met by China's vice-president, Putin was welcomed by a politburo member. The Kremlin dismissed comparisons, but Russian state media portrayed Putin as an "ally" and Trump as a "rival." Both summits yielded modest results; Trump-Xi talks saw little progress on Nvidia chip exports and tariffs. Russia's economic struggles and limited battlefield progress in Ukraine have deepened its reliance on China, transforming their relationship into an asymmetric one. The US-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz offered Russia an opportunity to present itself as a reliable long-term energy supplier to Beijing, though no specific announcement on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline emerged. Xi Jinping benefited by projecting China as a global statesman capable of balancing rival powers and as a lifeline for an increasingly dependent Russia. No breakthroughs on the Ukraine or US-Iran conflicts were achieved, with China reiterating language mirroring the Kremlin's narrative on Ukraine.

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Saudi Arabia and UAE say drone attacks were launched from Iraq

Long War Journal  |  Seth J. Frantzman

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reported that recent drone attacks against their countries originated from Iraq, with the UAE stating six drones were launched from Iraq in 48 hours, including one that caused a fire at a nuclear power plant. Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones from Iraqi airspace, reserving the right to respond. Iraq denied detecting drones from its territory and condemned the attack on the UAE, calling for intelligence cooperation. These incidents occur amidst ongoing regional tensions with Iran, with Iran-linked drones and missiles targeting the region, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, even after an early April US-Iran ceasefire. Reports indicate the majority of attacks on Saudi Arabia since February 28 originated from Iraq, carried out by Iran-backed Shiite militias, prompting retaliatory strikes by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in Iraq. Iraq's new Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi faces pressure to control these Iran-backed militias, part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, while the US has arrested an Iraqi national accused of ties to Kataib Hezbollah and offered rewards for militia leaders.

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As U.S. war redraws Middle East, Turkey braces for rivalry with Israel

The Washington Post  |  Ellen Francis, Burhan Yüksekkaș

Amid the Trump administration's search for a victorious path out of its war against Iran, Turkey is actively preparing for a shifting balance of power in the Middle East. Ankara anticipates a growing rivalry with Israel and is pursuing new security partnerships, advocating for “regional ownership” in the unpredictable landscape of U.S. Middle East policies. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has positioned Turkey as a crucial mediator capable of engaging with diverse actors, including Russia and Ukraine, as well as the U.S. and Iran, reflecting a broader strategy to assert influence. This proactive stance aims to navigate and shape the regional dynamics being redrawn by the ongoing U.S. conflict, securing Turkey's interests and enhancing its geopolitical standing amidst evolving power structures and potential new alliances. The call for “regional ownership” underscores Turkey's desire for greater autonomy and influence in a post-conflict Middle East, challenging traditional power brokers.

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Iran war pulls some Gulf states toward Israel, while pushing others away

The Jerusalem Post  |  Herb Keinon

The Iran war is driving a significant divergence in strategic alignments among Gulf states, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) deepening its strategic partnership with Israel while Saudi Arabia seeks alternative security alliances. The UAE's relationship with Israel has evolved beyond the 2020 Abraham Accords into extensive security coordination, intelligence sharing, and air defense cooperation, including the deployment of an Iron Dome battery and personnel during the recent conflict. This partnership is fueled by shared threat perceptions of Iran and a perceived lack of Arab solidarity, with Israel's counter-drone lasers and Iron Dome system intercepting over 95% of Iranian projectiles targeting the UAE. Conversely, Saudi Arabia, while welcoming a weakened Iran, is wary of Israel emerging as the dominant Middle East power. Riyadh is strengthening ties with Pakistan and Turkey, evidenced by a trilateral defense agreement in January and Pakistan's deployment of 8,000 troops, fighter jets, drone units, and a Chinese-operated air defense system to Saudi Arabia. This divergence exposes a new strategic fault line in the postwar Middle East, with the UAE prioritizing direct security cooperation with Israel and Saudi Arabia hedging to maintain a regional balance without empowering Jerusalem.

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Trump ramps up Cuba pressure as Nimitz carrier enters Caribbean Sea

USA TODAY  |  Kim Hjelmgaard, Zachary Anderson

The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier and three escort warships entered the Caribbean Sea, coinciding with the Justice Department's announcement of murder charges against Cuba's 94-year-old former president Raúl Castro. This deployment and indictment reflect escalating pressure from the Trump administration, reminiscent of January's commando raid that captured Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and Cilia Flores on narco-terrorism charges. The Nimitz, previously engaged in preplanned training and joint exercises with the Brazilian navy along the South American coast, arrived as the U.S. developed military operations options against Cuba. Charges against Castro and five others stem from the 1996 downing of two civilian planes, killing four, including three Americans. Cuba condemned the "despicable accusation" as a pretext for military action. Despite President Donald Trump's statements about not anticipating escalation and wanting to help Cuba "on a humanitarian basis," his administration has maintained an oil blockade and sanctions, with CIA Director John Ratcliffe recently meeting Cuban leaders amid fuel shortages and fears of U.S. military intervention.

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Report to Congress on U.S. Aircraft Combat Losses in Operation Epic Fury

USNI News 

The United States, in coordination with Israel, initiated Operation Epic Fury (OEF) against Iran on February 28, 2026, involving air, maritime, and missile combat across the Middle East. Following a ceasefire in April, some strikes resumed, maintaining fluid conditions. A Congressional Research Service report details 42 fixed-wing or rotary-wing aircraft, including uncrewed aircraft, reportedly lost or damaged in OEF, based on news reports and statements from the Department of Defense (DOD) and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). Acting Pentagon Comptroller Jules W. Hurst III testified on May 12, 2026, that the DOD’s cost estimate for military operations in Iran has increased to $29 billion, primarily due to refined estimates for equipment repair or replacement. The DOD, operating under a secondary "Department of War designation" per Executive Order 14347 dated September 5, 2025, has not published a comprehensive assessment, and the number of damaged or destroyed aircraft remains subject to revision due to classification, ongoing combat, and attribution challenges. Download the document here.

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For Russia, AI and “Traditional Values” are Part of the Same Security Logic

Small Wars Journal | Anna Varfolomeeva

Russia’s March 2026 proposal to restrict foreign AI systems like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude, ostensibly to protect “traditional Russian spiritual and moral values,” is a manifestation of a long-standing military doctrine. This doctrine, evolving since the 2011-2012 Bolotnaya protests, views values formation and collective identity as a primary security battlefield, not merely cultural terrain. Russia’s 2014 Military Doctrine formally identified information activity undermining “historical, spiritual and patriotic traditions” as a military threat. Drawing on *Voennaya Misl’*, the Russian Defense Ministry’s journal, the “mental sphere” is mapped as a battlefield where common values enable societal mobilization. This coherent, two-directional architecture hardens domestic cognitive space against external penetration through measures like sovereign internet and patriotic education, while simultaneously eroding the common identity substrate of adversary societies. For instance, Russia restricts foreign AI domestically but uses systems like ChatGPT for external influence operations targeting audiences in Africa and beyond, mirroring its Telegram strategy. The strategic endpoint is to undermine trust in social processes and state institutions, making collective political action impossible and rendering populations difficult to govern.

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The U.S.-Israel Aid Era Is Ending. Drift Is the Greatest Risk.

RealClearWorld  |  Gregg Roman

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a 350 billion shekel ($120 billion) investment in its domestic defense industry over the next decade, confirming plans to phase out U.S. military aid. Washington and Jerusalem are preparing formal talks for a successor framework to zero out Foreign Military Financing (FMF) by 2038, led by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Defense Ministry Director General Amir Baram. The 2016 Memorandum of Understanding already initiated a phaseout, with Off-Shore Procurement ending in FY2028. Israel's defense exports hit a record $14.79 billion in 2024, indicating its robust defense capabilities. To manage this transition and prevent "drift," the article outlines four critical steps: signing the successor framework by FY2027, doubling U.S. missile defense allocation to $1 billion annually, reforming International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) for tier-one allies, and Israel building institutional infrastructure like a Defense Industrial Transition Authority and a Defense Export Credit Agency. This structured approach aims to strengthen the U.S.-Israel relationship through joint capability investment rather than grant subsidy.

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