Indian Strategic Studies

9 May 2025

Indian Airstrikes in Pakistan: May 7, 2025

Rudra Chaudhuri

On May 7, 2025, between 1:05 and 1:30 a.m. (IST), airstrikes carried out by the Indian Air Force hit nine locations inside Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). It was codenamed Operation Sindoor. Significantly, this is the first time since 1971 that India struck across the international boundary (IB) or the settled and accepted border between India and Pakistan.

The strikes were conducted in retaliation for a terrorist attack that took place in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, claiming the lives of twenty-five Indian tourists and one Nepali tourist. As Indian foreign secretary Vikram Misri made clear in a press briefing on the morning of May 7, the airstrikes were designed to “deter” and “pre-empt” more cross-border attacks that Indian intelligence considered “impending.” With this in mind, the objective of the air strikes was focused on “dismantling the terrorist infrastructure and disabling terrorists likely to be sent across to India.”

A Pakistan-based group known as The Resistance Front (TRF) claimed responsibility for the attacks in Pahalgam, and then withdrew the claim as Indian pressure on Pakistan mounted in the days that followed, according to reports. Interestingly, in 2019, the terrorist group the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) that claimed an attack on an Indian convoy later withdrew their claim. The TRF is widely considered to be an offshoot of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), backed by the Pakistani state. The TRF has been added by India in the half-yearly reports to be designated in the United Nations 1267 committee. Pakistan has tried to stall these attempts.

Is nuclear war between India and Pakistan inevitable

Francis Pike

Yesterday evening Indian prime minister Narendra Modi authorised missile strikes on jihadi training camps located in Pakistan’s East Punjab and Pakistani Kashmir. It is retaliation for the attack on Hindu tourists allegedly carried out by the Pakistani Jihadi groups Lashkar-e-Taibi and Jaish-e-Muhammad in Indian controlled Kashmir on 22 April.

Does this mean all-out war between the two nuclear powers is inevitable? Not necessarily. Since Indian partition, the perennial casus belli in the subcontinent there have been three major wars between India and Pakistan. The First Indo-Pakistan War (1947-1948) and the Second Indo-Pakistan War (1965) were both fought over the Kashmir issue.

The third Indo-Pakistan War of 1977 was fought over Bangladesh. The result of the conflict won by India enabled Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, to achieve independence.

A fourth, the Kargil War, in 1999 is better characterised as a mini-war, which followed Islamist militant and regular army infiltration of high-altitude mountains in Indian-administered Kashmir.

However, smaller military border clashes have been a constant. Fighting over the Siachen Glacier has been continuous since 1984. Artillery exchanges also occurred in 2016 and 2019. This last clash followed India’s revocation of Article 370 which had previously given Kashmir semi-autonomous status. Kashmir is now a ‘normal’ Indian state.

How the India-Pakistan Crisis Puts U.S. Strategy to the Test

Shawn Rostker

Open conflict has erupted between India and Pakistan, once again raising the possibility of nuclear confrontation. Indian missile strikes into Pakistan and Pakistani-controlled Kashmir have resulted in eight deaths, according to Pakistani officials. At the same time, Islamabad claims to have shot down two (or more) Indian fighter jets over its territory. Shelling and heavy gunfire have also broken out along the Line of Control (LOC), the heavily militarized de facto border that divides Indian- and Pakistani-controlled parts of Kashmir.

Pakistan’s defense minister has said a “forceful response is being given.” As fighting intensifies, the United States now faces a narrow but urgent opportunity that requires modest, focused diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation, reinforce U.S. credibility, and avoid much higher costs in areas beyond South Asia later.

The outbreak follows weeks of rising tensions that began after a deadly terrorist attack in the town of Pahalgam in Kashmir, which India attributed to militants linked to Pakistani intelligence. New Delhi initially responded by “test-firing” several anti-ship missiles and announcing plans to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty—a move that triggered panic in parts of Pakistan where water is scarce. Pakistan then escalated its rhetoric with unusual directness, stating that any attempt to cease water flows would constitute an “act of war.” Islamabad followed up with threats to launch ballistic missiles at India and by suspending the 1972 Simla Agreement that established the LOC and committed both sides to resolve the Kashmir dispute peacefully.

From Flooded Shores to Uncertain Futures

Safina Nabi and Kanika Gupta

Thirty-year-old Sita*, originally from a coastal region of Bangladesh, recalls the day Cyclone Aila struck with chilling clarity. Her house made from mud and thatch crumbled from the impact.

“It began like any other day, until a sudden shift in the air warned us of an impending disaster,” she said.

Strategic Snapshot: China’s AI Ambitions

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has articulated a desire to dominate the technologies of the future. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a particular focus, as the Politburo’s 20th collective study session made clear. At the meeting, Xi Jinping described AI as “a strategic technology leading a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation” (People’s Daily, April 27).

Advanced semiconductor technology and computing capacity are essential to further breakthroughs in AI. Beijing has therefore accelerated promotion of self-reliance in semiconductor design and production in the last decade, and especially since the imposition of export controls by the United States. The ambition to achieve self-reliance in chip production dates back much earlier, however, and was first incorporated as part of a national plan in 1986. Despite many struggles and some high-profile scandals and failures, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is making progress on several fronts. Notably, Huawei continues to thrive and innovate.

The arrival of DeepSeek’s R1 reasoning model in early 2025 indicates that the PRC maintains a strong capacity for innovation. The Party views DeepSeek’s success as an exposition of its own model of technological development. It rarely notes, however, that this model relies on partnering with overseas institutions, building on top of Western open-source technologies, and acquiring advanced technologies through illegal means, such as through theft, smuggling, and forced transfers.

Xi Jinping arrives in Moscow as Putin’s ‘guest of honor’ ahead of Victory Day military parade

Simone McCarthy

As Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares for his heavily choreographed May 9 “Victory Day” military parade, he’s been clear who’s at the top of his guest list: Xi Jinping.

The Chinese leader arrived in Moscow on Wednesday for a four-day state visit, Russian state news agency RIA Novosti reported. Xi will deepen “mutual trust” with Putin, according to Beijing, and attend activities commemorating 80 years since the Allied forces’ World War II victory over Nazi Germany.

Xi’s attendance marks a strong showing of unity between the two autocrats and their nations at a moment when US President Donald Trump’s “America First” diplomacy has shaken global alliances and reshaped relations between Washington and both powers. In remarks last month, Putin described Xi as his “main guest.”

In a written statement marking his arrival in Moscow, Xi hailed China and Russia as “good neighbors that cannot be moved apart, true friends who share weal and woe, and reliable partners who help each other succeed.”

The two countries will “work together to defend the hard-won outcomes of World War II,” resolutely oppose “hegemonism and power politics” and promote the establishment of “a more just and reasonable global governance system,” Xi said in the statement.

Trump says US to stop attacking Houthis in Yemen as group has 'capitulated'

Donald Trump said the US would stop attacking the Houthis in Yemen because the group had "capitulated", as Oman confirmed a "ceasefire" had been reached with the Iran-backed group for it to stop targeting shipping in the Red Sea.

"[The Houthis] just don't want to fight, and we will honour that and we will stop the bombings, and they have capitulated," he said, speaking alongside Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in the White House.

Shortly afterwards the Omani foreign minister posted that the deal meant neither side would target the other, "ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping".

The Houthis have yet to comment.

The US stepped up air strikes on the Houthis in March and the US military says it has struck 1,000 targets in Yemen since then.

Speaking in the Oval Office, Trump said the Houthis would "not be blowing up ships anymore".

"The Houthis have announced that they are not, or they announced to us at least, that they don't want to fight anymore... but, more importantly, we will take their word.

"They say they will not be blowing up ships anymore and that's what the purpose of what we were doing... so that's just news we just found out about that."

U.S. slashing military presence in Syria

Colin Demarest

The U.S. will shrink its military footprint in Syria over the coming months, bringing troop levels below 1,000.

Why it matters: President Trump tried to pull all American forces from the war-ravaged country during his first term.

Along with Turkey, Iran and Russia, the U.S. is one of several foreign powers with a foothold in Syria as the country rebuilds after the fall of dictator Bashar al-Assad.

The latest: Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell announced the reduction Friday afternoon, citing "the significant steps we have made toward degrading ISIS' appeal and operational capability regionally and globally."

Zoom in: Three small operating bases in northeast Syria will be shuttered, the New York Times reported Thursday.

Yes, but: There's significant buildup elsewhere in Central Command, which oversees military operations across the greater Middle East.

Aircraft carriers Carl Vinson and Harry S. Truman are launching warplanes to combat Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Patriot air defenses were shifted to the region, away from the Indo-Pacific.
And B-2 bombers were dispatched to Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean.

The Path to Greater Peace in the Middle East Is Clear

Victoria Coates, PhD & Robert Greenway

The Abraham Accords, brokered by President Trump in 2020, opened the door to groundbreaking economic innovation and security cooperation between the U.S. and its Israeli and Arab Middle Eastern allies. The accords have weathered even the Hamas terror attack of October 7, 2023, which demonstrates that strengthening this new paradigm of peace is far more critical to American national security than resolving the Palestinian issue is.

President Trump’s return to the White House has created a once-in-a-generation opportunity to deepen and expand the circle of peace and cooperation. The U.S. and its regional partners must come together and forge a shared future of mutual security, economic growth, and global technological leadership.

As former senior officials in the first Trump administration, we supported establishing the 2020 ties between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. However, the potential of the Abraham Accords goes far beyond the level of bilateral relations. Enhanced regional integration under American leadership opens the possibility for multilateral initiatives with global consequences.

One key example is the India–Middle East–Europe Corridor (IMEC). This effort would create a Western-aligned trade route stretching from India to Europe, cutting transit time for key goods such as pharmaceuticals and electronics by 40–50 percent versus sea routes. Such a corridor would encourage coordination between U.S. allies such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel; spur massive infrastructure projects that could benefit U.S. companies; and serve as an alternative to trade routes dominated by China, Iran, and Russia.

No, Ukraine Is Not Fighting a “Proxy War”

Stephen Webber

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues into its third brutal year, and the U.S. government presses for a resolution to the conflict, it is worth taking a step back and considering the lens through which we view the war itself.

“Proxy war” is a term invoked by government officials, analysts, pundits, and scholars to describe the conflict in Ukraine. The label was notably used by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his criticism of U.S. policy as early as December 2022. While Putin was trying to influence American and global audiences by conveying a specific message, the term has long been used in serious analysis and policy discussion, perhaps most often by well-intentioned thinkers seeking to understand and describe the nature of war.

This creates the question: Does this accurately describe the war in Ukraine, and is the term “proxy war” at all useful in the first place?

The answer is no. The term “proxy war” is unhelpful in regards to the Ukraine war specifically, and can lead us astray when thinking about other conflicts as well. It misses the mark in two ways: It deprives the parties involved of their agency, and it oversimplifies the often-complex relationships among all sides. From a practical perspective, these mistakes can translate into ineffective policies with bad outcomes.

‘No One’s Coming’: Inside Gaza as Israel Expands Its Military Control

Callum Sutherland and Chantelle Lee

As Israeli drones buzz overhead and food supplies dwindle, Oday Basheer moves quietly through Deir al-Balah, helping run a community kitchen for displaced Palestinians. The daily threat of airstrikes has become routine. “It’s just a press of a button and my story is ended,” he says.

Basheer, whose kitchen has partnered with World Central Kitchen (WCK), no longer tracks the headlines. “No one’s coming. No one’s going to stop this war.”

On Monday, Israel confirmed what many in Gaza had feared: its military will seize the territory indefinitely, calling up tens of thousands of reservists to significantly expand operations. The timing, according to a defense official speaking to the Associated Press, may hinge on President Trump’s visit to the region next month.

“I will not do the dreams that I wanted to achieve,” Basheer tells TIME from Gaza. “More than 50,000 people were killed during this genocide.”

WCK has suspended operations in Gaza twice in the past year after Israeli strikes killed seven in April 2024 and three last November.

As of April, at least 408 aid workers have been killed, deepening the crisis for Gaza’s 2 million residents already enduring a near-total blockade.

How Will Israel Expand Military Operations?

Who Could Be the Next Pope? These Are the Names to Know

Aryn Baker

Any baptized man can become pope, but traditionally he (and it is always a ‘he’) is elected from the college of Cardinals. This year, possible contenders range from Francis’ liberal-leaning secretary of state, Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, to Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea, an ultra-conservative and outspoken critic of Francis. We could also see, for the first time, an American pope, a pope from Sub-Saharan Africa, or an Asian pope.

With campaigning frowned upon, consultations secretive, and coalitions in constant flux, it is impossible to predict an outcome or even a list of top contenders. “The trash heaps of church history are littered with the carcasses of journalists who have tried to predict the next pope,” wrote long-time Vatican analyst John L. Allen in the National Catholic Reporter in a prelude to a list of potential candidates to replace Pope John Paul II in 2005. As if to prove his point, Joseph Aloisius Ratzinger, who greeted the world from the St. Peter’s balcony as Pope Benedict XVI a few days later, didn’t even make Allen’s list. Argentina’s Jorge Mario Bergoglio did—but it took another round before he was named Pope Francis in 2013, upon Benedict’s resignation.

Several names have emerged from this week’s consultations in the Vatican as “papabile,” or pope-material, but at this point, they are more likely to represent characteristics the cardinals would like to see in the church’s next leader than any definitive choice. We list a few here.

France could now prove the weak link in the Franco-German engine

Mujtaba Rahman

Mujtaba Rahman is the head of Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. He tweets at @Mij_Europe.

After a humiliating two-round vote, Friedrich Merz is Germany’s new chancellor. And upon taking office, one of his first acts will be a visit with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.

Asserting the primacy of the Franco-German partnership is a traditional gesture for all new French and German leaders. And after the four years of misunderstanding and occasional outright hostility between Macron and former Chancellor Olaf Scholz, this will be a welcome return to custom.

Just as significant, however, is Merz’s second foreign visit, which is set to be with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk — a meeting that underscores just how much the bloc has changed.

There’s good reason to believe that the Franco-German “motor” within the EU will jolt back to life in the Macron-Merz era. The two men agree on many things, from the need to create a “sovereign” Europe to the existential obligation to prevent Russia from winning the Ukraine war.

Moreover, Merz has made it clear that, faced with U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America First” unilateralism, Germany’s delicate post-war pas de deux with the EU and the U.S. must end, and he has called for “independence” from Washington.

Trump Offered Putin an ‘Excellent’ Ukraine War Deal: Why Did He Say No?

Robert Kelly

The Ukraine War Just Won’t End

US President Donald Trump entered office insisting he would end the Ukraine war rapidly (in one day). His initial approach was to pressure Ukraine into substantial concessions while demanding little of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump’s logic appeared to be that Putin was his friend and would respond in good faith.

Trump also seems to have absorbed Putin’s narrative of the war. Trump does not seem to grasp that Putin started the conflict, that Ukraine is the defender, not the aggressor, and that Russian behavior in the war has been appalling.

Indeed, Trump offered Putin such a good deal that it is surprising that Putin did not take it. Trump offered de facto recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, de facto recognition of Putin’s conquests since 2022, rollback of US sanctions on Russia’s economy, and no US security commitment to Ukraine.

This deal is excellent for Moscow. It would give the Russian army and economy a much-needed breather. Russia’s military has not fared well in the war; its casualty estimates are close to one million dead and wounded. Russia’s economy is now hyper-militarized and needs to return to a civilian footing eventually.

A ceasefire with no security commitment would leave Ukraine vulnerable to a renewed Russian attack a few years later.

Trump Speaks Out on His Desire to Annex Canada, Recession Concerns, and If He Has to Uphold the Constitution

Rebecca Schneid

The first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term in the White House have been dominated by talks of Executive Orders, tariffs, foreign relations and economic stability in light of the trade war sparked by the tariffs, comments about annexing Canada, the possibility of seeking a third term, and much more.

Such topics were discussed in Trump’s April 22 interview in TIME, and it was of little surprise that the subject matters came up again when Trump sat down for an interview with NBC’s Meet the Press at his Mar-a-Lago home in Palm Beach, Florida.

A desire to annex Canada and make it the "51st state"

In recent months, Trump has made a number of comments highlighting his desire to annex Canada and make it the 51st state. In a post shared on Truth Social on March 11, when addressing the concerns Canada raised regarding tariffs, Trump said: “The only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State. This would make all tariffs, and everything else, totally disappear.”

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose Liberal Party won the Canadian election on April 28, has—much like his predecessor Justin Trudeau—made it clear that Canada has no intention of taking Trump up on his offer. “It will never happen,” he said.

The Challenge of Overhauling FEMA In a Climate Changed World

Simmone Shah

Severe storms hit the Pittsburgh area earlier this week—killing three and causing widespread power outages in the region.

It’s the latest in a string of deadly storms in the U.S.—at least 24 people were killed after storms hit the south and midwest in early April, and at least 32 people were killed when storms swept through much of the country in mid-March. Following both storms, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), stepped in to provide assistance to individuals and counties.

While Pittsburgh might not need FEMA aid, if the Trump Administration has it their way, many communities across the country could be left in the lurch on disaster recovery aid, as the administration looks to dismantle the agency and shift disaster response onto states. And climate change is only making it more complicated.

The reality of leaving disaster response to states would be "devastating," says Allison Reilly, associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Maryland. “FEMA exists because there are times when the state can simply not respond.”

Protests in Gaza and Israel

Kate Adie presents stories from Israel and Gaza, China, Romania, Bolivia and the Vatican City.

In Gaza and Israel people have been taking to the streets to demand an end to the war. The protests have taken different forms, and as Paul Adams notes, also involve very different risks.

Amid the on-going trade war between China and the US, Laura Bicker speaks to Chinese traders at one of the world's biggest wholesale markets in Yiwu, to find out how Donald Trump's tariffs are affecting business.

After election results were annulled in Romania last year, the country faces a rerun this Sunday. The political chaos that followed the Constitutional Court's decision left a sour taste among many voters, finds Tessa Dunlop, who met people from across the political spectrum in Bucharest.

The Bolivian city of Potosi was once at the heart of the Spanish empire, thanks to the discovery of a mountain of silver in the 16th Century. Carolyn Lamboley paid a visit to the city, which is now a shell of what it was and met some of the miners who still work in the region.

Rome's trattorias and cafes are bustling with cardinals and their supporters as they deliberate the kind of leader they want as their new Pope. Veteran BBC Vatican correspondent, David Willey, has been observing the hushed conversations ahead of the Conclave which gathers in the Vatican on Wednesday.

‘He kind of got bored’: How Trump’s hopes of Gaza peace faded away

Michael Crowley

When US President Donald Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in early April, a reporter reminded Trump that his 2024 campaign promise to end the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza remained unfulfilled.

Israel had recently broken a tenuous ceasefire in its 18-month war with Hamas and renewed its bombardment of Gaza. But Trump professed optimism.

“I’d like to see the war stop,” he replied. “And I think the war will stop at some point that won’t be in the too-distant future.”

One month later, prospects for peace in Gaza have dimmed even further.

Netanyahu late on Monday (AEDT) warned of an “intensive” Israeli escalation in the Palestinian enclave after his security cabinet approved plans to call up tens of thousands of reservists for a fresh assault.

Israeli hawks insist that only force can pressure Hamas into finally releasing the more than 20 hostages it still holds captive and end the conflict. But many analysts say a major Israeli escalation could kill any hope left for peace.

IDF to clear northern Gaza, send civilians south for aid pilot program, says security source

YONAH JEREMY BOB

As part of the impending widening of the invasion of Gaza, the IDF plans to completely clear the northern part of the enclave, sending its citizens to southern Gaza, where a new humanitarian aid pilot program will begin, a senior security source said on Monday.

The announcement means the IDF will finally be effectively implementing the “General’s Plan,” which was widely discussed for much of 2024 but never implemented under a mix of pressure from the Biden administration and objections within the IDF itself.

According to the plan – originated by former National Security Council chief Giora Eiland and adopted by a group of senior reservist officers who were upset that the war was not leading to a quick enough defeat of Hamas – if all civilians were cleared from northern Gaza, then the IDF could let loose completely against any remaining Hamas terrorists in the area.

Israel has faced less American pressure regarding its war tactics since US President Donald Trump took office in January.

The senior security source added that most of Gaza, other than certain set-aside zones, would be cleared and that northern Gaza, especially, would be mostly flattened as the IDF did in the Rafah area by the Morag Corridor.

The U.S. national security case for deep-tech big bets

Colin Demarest

Innovation is a weapon. But in a defense world pockmarked by delays, it typically doesn't come fast or cheap.

Why it matters: The largest leaps ahead are accomplished by butting heads with the hardest problems.

And, oftentimes, whoever corners a market as it emerges sets its rules.

The latest: Axios spoke with a half-dozen business executives, financiers, former defense officials and more who made the national-security case for patient capital and argued the government should play riskier hands on technologies that may not come to immediate fruition but, given enough time, can change the game.

"The next decade of geopolitical competition is going to get boiled down to frontier technology," Adam Hammer, CEO of Roadrunner Venture Studios, told Axios. "Which technologies dominate and where they are built will decide some of the most important questions facing humanity."
Roadrunner springboards deep-tech endeavors. It works closely with scientists and scholars at national labs and universities.
"Today it's like, 'Hey, we discovered something in the lab. It's at a bench top.' Great. It needs a team. It needs a business model. It needs to be productized. It needs marketing. It needs all of these things to make it scale," Hammer said. "But we as a country have not figured out that early valley of death."

What Project Convergence will look like after bucking its yearly rhythm

Colin Demarest and Jen Judson

Project Convergence started relatively small, with limited soldier participation.

At its inception in the Arizona desert in 2020, the U.S. Army hoped to use the event to evaluate its materiel upgrades, including a potent brew of artificial intelligence, autonomy, robotics and radiating connectivity. The scale at which experimentation took place paled in comparison to the global presence the service touts.

The technology crucible, however, quickly grew.

In 2021, Project Convergence welcomed Air Force and Navy participation, highlighting the military-wide expectations of future fighting. The next year, it added international forces: Australia and the U.K. directly participated, while others, such as Canada, looked on. The endeavor, critical to shaping the Army’s future formations and employment of tech, soon became a breeding ground for Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control, or CJADC2, the Pentagon’s larger connectedness campaign.

But the blossoming left some in Army leadership with questions. Was there enough time to fully absorb the results? Was there enough time to plan successive events?

U.S. not ready for global war, commission warns

Colin Demarest

The United States — its citizens, industry, decision-makers and military — is unprepared for a war that could kick off with Russia and China and later engulf the world, according to a new blue chip study.

Why it matters: The Commission on the National Defense Strategy, a congressionally mandated group with members handpicked by Democratic and Republican lawmakers, is not known for hyperbole. Its conclusions, that the U.S. "has not kept pace with a worsening situation," should be a wakeup call.

Here are some of the top-line issues the commission laid out in 100-plus pages published this week:

China has "largely negated the U.S. military advantage" in the Western Pacific after 20 years of investment.
The Pentagon's portrayal of Russia as an "acute threat" undersells the "ongoing and persistent" nature of the hazards it poses, especially in space and cyber. Moscow-aligned hackers are expected to sow chaos across the U.S. should war break out.
The means by which the Pentagon purchases weapons are outdated, as are the ultimate products. Successes like the Defense Innovation Unit are system workarounds that don't have enough resources.
Stateside production capacity is "grossly inadequate," meaning a "World War II–style industrial mobilization" is off the table. A protracted fight, as seen in Ukraine, is incredibly taxing.

Ukrainian drone boats destroy Russian helicopters in Black Sea clash

Colin Demarest

Missile-toting drone boats blew up two Russian helicopters and damaged a third in a Black Sea skirmish.

Why it matters: Ukrainian outlets said the shoot-downs were world firsts.

Engagements like this — especially with video evidence — leave little room for drone warfare naysayers.

Zoom in: Footage shared by Kyiv shows a Magura V5 unmanned surface vessel slipping through a spray of bullets and firing off a missile. One helicopter responds with flares.

Intelligence officials said R-73 air-to-air missiles were used. They dubbed the new application "SeeDragon."

Our thought bubble: Home-brewed weaponry continues to shine in Eastern Europe. FrankenSAMs are here to stay.

Zoom out: Unmanned surface vessels are proving their worth across the globe.

Houthi rebels in Yemen are challenging world powers with a combination of ship-killing missiles and explosives-strapped jet skis.
Closer to home, the Marine Corps is tinkering with the Autonomous Low-Profile Vessel, a narco-boat capable of ferrying a pair of Naval Strike Missiles.

Pentagon’s hypersonic milestone: Stratolaunch reusable vehicle breaks Mach 5

Sandra Erwin

The U.S. is re-entering the era of reusable hypersonic flight testing for the first time in more than half a century, using an autonomous drone developed by Stratolaunch.

The hypersonic vehicle named Talon A2 exceeded Mach 5—the threshold for hypersonic speed—in two Pentagon-backed test flights conducted in December 2024 and March 2025, the Defense Department confirmed May 5.

The flights mark the first time since the X-15 program, which ended in 1968, that the U.S. has conducted reusable hypersonic testing.

The X-15 hypersonic research program was a collaboration with NASA, the U.S. Air Force and the Navy. It operated for nearly 10 years and set a speed record of Mach 6.7. The program contributed to the development of the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo piloted spaceflight programs as well as the Space Shuttle program.

The Talon-A is operated by Stratolaunch, a company founded in 2011 by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. The flights were conducted under the Multi-Service Advanced Capability Hypersonic Test Bed (MACH-TB) program, a Defense Department initiative aimed at accelerating hypersonic weapons development by tapping into commercially available testing platforms. Stratolaunch works under a contract from Leidos, which manages MACH-TB on behalf of the Pentagon’s Test Resource Management Center.

The Quantum Era has Already Begun

Vimal Kapur and Rajeeb Hazra

By the end of 2024, even casual observers of technology headlines could see the excitement building around quantum computing–a technology that represents a fundamental shift in how we process information, applying quantum physics to solve problems far beyond the reach of even the most powerful classical computers.

Among numerous other developments, in March 2024, Quantinuum announced a breakthrough in the ability to build a large-scale quantum computer. A month later, at the Quantum World Congress, IBM, Microsoft, and Boeing all announced major developments in their quantum research. Capping off the year, in December, Google unveiled its Willow processor, hailed as a significant achievement in the journey toward practical quantum computing. Mainstream enthusiasm was accelerating.

Then came January, and the annual Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, where Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on stage, in a room full of reporters, that he didn’t anticipate “very useful” quantum computing for another 15 to 30 years. Three months later, in front of a gathering of quantum leaders, he issued a course correction, but there was no doubt his commentary continued to spark deliberation across the industry and investors about where we are in the innovation trajectory for quantum computing and where we are going next.

8 May 2025

After Pahalgam: Is The Indus Waters Treaty Doomed? – Analysis

Amit Ranjan

On 22 April 2025, militants belonging to The Resistance Front, an offshoot of the Lashkar-e-Taiba, killed 26 and injured about 17 tourists in Pahalgam in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). India responded with several strong measures against Pakistan, including the decision to hold the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) “… in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism”.

Pakistan responded with its own measures against India. On India’s decision on the IWT, Pakistan countered, “…Water is a Vital National Interest of Pakistan, a lifeline for its 240 million people, and its availability will be safeguarded at all costs. Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power.”

Consequent to its decision, India is now not obliged to abide by the terms of the IWT – it can stop sharing water flow data with Pakistan, flush reservoirs and no longer be subject to hydro project design or operation-related restrictions. Annually, on an average, around 135 million acres feet (MAF) of water flow in the western rivers – Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. The IWT allows India to store 3.60 MAF (current capacity is around one MAF), develop 1.34 million acres of irrigation land in J&K and Ladakh (as of 2024, the total irrigated land was around 642,000 acres) and build run-of-river dams.

Trump Cannot Make a Deal with the Taliban for Bagram Air Base

Abdullah Khenjani

The abrupt collapse of the Afghan government on August 15, 2021, effectively concluded what many have described as the “longest war in American history.” Although this monumental event should have invited extensive debate on the strategic, moral, and logistical implications of the worst withdrawal, it instead prompted a curious U.S. silence. Under the Biden administration, the U.S. government minimized discussion of Afghanistan, and within weeks, most news outlets pivoted away from the country—reasoning that the United States had outstayed its welcome there to begin with. When questioned in a press conference, President Biden dismissed further comment on the subject, saying that he wanted to “talk about happy things” instead.

Four years later, President Donald Trump has breathed new life into the Afghanistan issue—criticizing Biden’s departure from the country and the ensuing Taliban takeover, and attempting to re-litigate some outstanding issues with the militant group. In particular, Trump has focused on two issues: the recovery from the Taliban of billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment left behind in Afghanistan following the withdrawal, and the possibility of a continued U.S. presence at Bagram Air Base, the major airfield in northern Afghanistan. Trump has shown regret about the United States not securing a long-term U.S. presence at the base, which is fairly close to China’s western Xinjiang region and would allow the United States a base of operations from which to observe it.

China Learns Valuable Lessons About War With America: Analysts

Ryan Chan

Why It Matters

Under the orders of President Donald Trump, the U.S. military has been carrying out an air and naval campaign against the Houthis across western Yemen since March 15. The Pentagon has also enhanced its force posture in the Middle East, including by re-tasking an aircraft carrier group from the Pacific.

The U.S. Navy has played a central role in the airstrikes against the Houthis through the deployment of two naval strike groups led by the aircraft carriers USS Harry S. Truman and USS Carl Vinson. The Houthis have made several attempts to strike U.S. warships in the waters near Yemen with missiles and drones.

China has threatened to take self-ruled Taiwan by force. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 requires that the United States provide defensive arms to the island while maintaining its own capability to resist any attempt to change the cross-Taiwan Strait status quo by other than peaceful means.

Is It Too Late to Slow China’s AI Development?

Rishi Iyengar and Lili Pike

For a company worth nearly $3 trillion, facing an unexpected cost of a few billion dollars may sound relatively paltry. But U.S. chipmaker Nvidia’s announcement in a regulatory filing earlier this month that it expected to incur costs of up to $5.5 billion as a result of new U.S. export controls sent the company’s stock tumbling more than 6 percent the following day and caused a collective shiver throughout the semiconductor chip industry.

Nvidia’s hefty financial hit comes from a new Trump administration rule requiring the company to acquire a special license to sell its H20 chips in China, adding another hurdle in accessing one of the world’s biggest tech markets and the United States’ foremost competitor in the race for artificial intelligence.

Xi Can’t Trust His Own Military - Opinio

Phillip C. Saunders and Joel Wuthnow

President Xi Jinping of China is believed to have ordered his armed forces to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027, if necessary, raising the specter of a catastrophic military conflict in the next few years that would almost inevitably draw in the United States.

But an ongoing purge by Mr. Xi of his top military ranks casts doubt on that deadline and, in the longer term, whether he can trust his generals to successfully wage war.

Over the past two years, two defense ministers and a host of senior People’s Liberation Army officers have been removed from their positions, including top leaders of the Rocket Force, which controls China’s nuclear weapons.

Heads continue to roll, including, according to recent reports, one of the highest-profile ousters yet: Gen. He Weidong, the country’s second-ranking officer, who reported directly to Mr. Xi and has been deeply involved in planning for a theoretical Taiwan invasion.

It is impossible to say for sure whether such dismissals are related to corruption — a stubborn and serious problem in the People’s Liberation Army — to ideological differences or to other reasons. But the tumult raises serious questions about the competence and reliability of Mr. Xi’s military commanders. This is likely to weaken his appetite for war, offering Taiwan and the United States time to strengthen their defenses.

My Take | Forget Mao, Clausewitz is a better guide to the real US-Chinese trade war

Alex Lo

Is a trade war a real war, or is it only a metaphor? Going by Chinese state media, the country is drawing inspiration from Mao Zedong’s series of speeches, collectively published as the famous On Protracted War.

In it, the Great Helmsman counsels against both optimism for a quick victory and defeatism. Rather, there is a need for a realistic assessment of the stages that must be reached before a decisive battle can be risked to achieve ultimate victory.

That, of course, means readying for a long drawn-out and arduous struggle – in his case, against the invading Japanese, and in our case, against Donald Trump and his trade warriors.

You can easily see why state-funded commentators love the Maoist rhetoric. After all, President Xi Jinping has repeatedly called on the party to relearn from Mao, but especially through On Protracted War, to find enlightenment and confidence on the way forward.

Beijing clearly wants to portray itself as standing firm and ready to fight to the end against Washington’s “bullying” tariff tactics.

But, instead of following Mao, the two sides may already be practising what the Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz teaches in his classic On War.

One way to understand what is actually happening on the trade war front may be to recast the Prussian general’s famous but usually misunderstood statement as “war is negotiations by other means”.

Russia is Ready to Sacrifice Iran in Washington’s Nuclear Negotiations

Nuclear talks between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Trump administration took place on April 12th and 19th, in Oman and Italy respectively. U.S. President Donald Trump initially stated his optimism, widely reported in Iran, but talks have since been suspended. During his first term as president, he was a staunch opponent of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), viewing it as contrary to the national interests of the United States and Israel. Despite his ally, Israel, opposing any U.S. deal with Iran, Trump has indicated a willingness to negotiate with Tehran. The Trump administration even rejected an Israeli proposal for a joint air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

From the perspective of the administration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, the primary purpose of the negotiation with Washington is to prevent a joint attack by Washington and Tel Aviv on Iran's nuclear power plants and facilities. Trump threatened repeatedly that if Tehran was unwilling to negotiate, the U.S. would bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, a policy that was welcomed by Israeli officials. The current administration in Tehran is also concerned with the impact of a large-scale aerial campaign against its continued tenure. This is telling, since Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, had also previously banned any negotiations with the Trump administration. Khamenei criticized Trump's aggressive rhetoric as counterproductive. He also warned that there would be a tough response to the U.S. if nuclear and military centers are bombed, although Iran’s weak strikes against Israel undermined this deterrent.

The Coming Clash Over Syria

David Makovsky and Simone Saidmehr

In December, a consortium of rebel factions led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham unexpectedly toppled the dictator Bashar al-Assad, whose family had ruled Syria for five decades. The new regime in Damascus inherited a country ruined by a 13-year civil war. HTS’s leader, Ahmed al-Shara, has taken charge of Syria, and foreign powers are hoping to steer his behavior. Two of the country’s neighbors, Israel and Turkey, have taken advantage of the power vacuum by establishing a presence there—and have already begun to butt heads.

Turkey has emerged as the dominant military power in Syria. Since 2019, HTS has held Idlib in Syria’s northwest, and for years, Ankara indirectly assisted it by operating a buffer zone in northern Syria that protected the group from Assad’s forces. Now Turkey wants even more influence in Syria so it can quash Kurds’ hope for autonomy, which flourished in the chaos of the civil war, and engineer the return of the three million Syrian refugees living in Turkey.

Yet Israel wants more influence in Syria, too. Although it signed a U.S.-brokered disengagement agreement with Syria in 1974 in the wake of the Yom Kippur War, Assad aligned closely in recent decades with Iran, Israel’s chief adversary. Under his rule, Syria served as a critical corridor for the flow of Iranian rockets and other weapons to the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, aggravating tensions with Israel.

SOF-Peculiar—Day One at the Edge of Defense

Chad Williamson

If there was a single word that defined the opening day of SOF Week 2025 in Tampa, it wasn’t one that the average American keeps in their vocabulary. It was SOF-Peculiar—a term that sounds like a Pentagon punchline but is actually a legal authority and a worldview. It’s how the U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) navigates the defense bureaucracy—not around it, but through it, with speed, trust, and an unapologetic devotion to mission.

Day One wasn’t about tech demos or defense deals. It was about people. Specifically, it was about a community of warfighters, innovators, and industry leaders coming together to ask a single, foundational question—What does it take to build the warfighting capability of today while cultivating our capacity for tomorrow?

To listen closely inside the JW Marriott Tampa Bay Ballroom—amidst suits, uniforms, and small business founders trying to crack the code of procurement—was to hear a different language emerge. One of partnership, experimentation, and human-centered design.

Mr. William “Bill” Innes, Deputy Director of Acquisition at SOF Acquisition Technology, and Logistics (AT&L), kicked off the day with clarity and candor. His message—USSOCOM was born out of failure—specifically, the 1980 Desert One disaster, known as Operation Eagle Claw. That failure didn’t just catalyze the creation of SOCOM, it cemented a core lesson, that the best of each service does not always make the best team. And so, SOCOM’s unique acquisition authority was born—not just to procure, but to connect, to adapt, and to think deliberately and creatively when required.

The Battle for Pentagon Acquisition Policy: Tradition Versus New-and-Cheaper

Bill Sweetman

An upcoming battle over defence acquisition will have repercussions for U.S. military posture, particularly in the Pacific.

The weapons that get bought in larger or smaller quantities, or are launched or cancelled, will indicate whether U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration will strengthen long-range deterrent forces, order a retreat under his Golden Dome missile-defence system, or spend four years trying to blend incompatible visions of industrial and technological strategy.

It’s a battle between, on one hand, tech-industry advocates of radical, cheaper approaches to defence acquisition and, on the other, traditional political and industry forces that want more of the same—but with an important new emphasis on long range for facing China.

Executive orders (EOs) have become so frequent that they barely register in the news cycle before the next wave hits. An April 9 order on ‘modernizing defense acquisition’ deserves more attention than it has got.

It was warmly welcomed by Palantir chief technology officer Shyam Sankar, leading prophet of the tech sector push. ‘This is a Defense Reformation two-fer, right off the bat,’ Sankar wrote in an email. The order directs the Pentagon to buy commercial solutions, if available, and defines them as products developed with private investment.

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